Wagner has lost ‘substantial manpower’ in Bakhmut fight
Russia’s onslaught on Bakhmut can turn bleak as Wagner group and conventional Russian forces have likely lost manpower in their ongoing fight in the salt mining city, analysts say.
“Western officials reported that Wagner Group and conventional Russian forces have likely lost a substantial amount of manpower in the Bakhmut area, which will further constrain Russia’s offensive on Bakhmut,” the US-based Institute for the Study of War said in its latest analysis.
The think-tank monitoring the war referenced a statement by the US chairman of the joint chief of staff general Mark Milley who said that the Wagner Group has around 6,000 professional personnel and 20,000 to 30,000 recruits, mostly convicts, fighting in the Bakhmut area.
This is lower than the number mentioned by the national security council sp tookesperson John Kirby in December where he said that the Wagner Group had 50,000 personnel in Ukraine including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convict recruits.
“It is likely that the difference between Kirby’s 50,000 figure in Ukraine and Milley’s 26,000 to 36,000 figure in the Bakhmut area is the result of casualties from Wagner’s attritional offensive on Bakhmut,” the ISW said.
It added: “Kirby reported on 17 February that the Wagner Group had suffered 30,000 casualties, with 9,000 dead, in operations in Ukraine.
“The Wagner Group may lose thousands more convict recruits in the upcoming weeks as convicts finish their six-month military contracts, and the Wagner leadership appears for now to be allowing pre-pardoned convicts to return from the frontlines to Russia at the conclusion of those contracts,” the ISW said.