Mchumi mimi nimekusoma na nimekuelewa sana sanaaa tu. Ila nina mambo 3 tu:
Mosi, Suala zima la takwimu: Sasa naomba unisaidie zaidi kuelewa, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF), tarehe 25 July walitoa takwimu zao ambazo zimerekebisha makadirio ya uchumi wa Urusi (Estimates) na kusema kwamba uchumi wa Urusi utakuwa kwa asilimia 1.5% kwa mwaka 2023 kutoka 0.7%.
Kumbuka, mwaka 2022 IMF walisema uchumi wa Urusi ungesinyaa (Contraction) kwa asilimia 12% kwa mwaka 2022, lakini kufika mwezi wa September wakarekebisha tena na kusema ungesinayaa kwa asilimia 2.1% tu. World Bank wamesema uchumi wa Urusi utakuwa kwa kasi chanya, japo kiwastani (Positive but modest growth) kwa asilimia 1.2% ifikapo mwaka 2024.
Lakini hebu tuzingatia takwimu basi, mtandao wa CIA unasema kwamba, mwaka 2021 kabla ya vita GDP (Purchasing Power Parity) ya Urusi ilikuwa ni USD Trilion 4, na baada ya vita wakasema ingeshuka hadi kufika USD Trilion 3.9. Ila katika kufunga mwaka 2022 IMF wakasema GDP (In Purchasing Power Parity) ya Urusi imefika USD Trilioni 5.51 ambayo ni kubwa kuliko Ujerumani ambayo ni USD Trilioni 5. Mtandao wa CIA, unasema hivi:
View attachment 2709542
Hii ni mwaka 2021, na ila sasa WB na IMF wanasema mwaka 2022 imefikia USD 5.51 Trilion. Sasa nachoomba kufahamu ni hiki, umezungumzia, DATA INTEGRITY, ila hizi takwimu zimetolewa na IMF na WB, je tusizitegemee na kuziamini kwasababu zimetolewa na Urusi yenyewe, ???
Pili, nimesoma makala ya, The Wall Street Journal, la tarehe 2 AUGUST 2023, kwenye kichwa cha habari kisemacho hivi "The West Attacked Russia's Economy. The Result is Another Stalemate" waandishi ni Alan Cullison na Georgi Kantshev. Ndani ya hii makala amehojiwa mchumi nguli, Prof Nicholas Mulder ambaye amebobea katika vikwazo vya uchumi amesema haya yafuatayo:
View attachment 2709557
Kwenye makala hiyohiyo, wanawanukuu wachumi wa The Carnegie Center ambao wanasema Urusi imepata faida ya ziada (Trade Surplus) mwaka 2022. Maneno yao ni haya hapa, naomba niyaweke tuyasome wote:
View attachment 2709567
Hapa naomba nieleweshwe kiuchumi. Wachumi wanaposema, (A country has a trade-surplus in current account) huwa wanamaanisha nini kitalaamu, ???
Tatu, umesema lengo la vikwazo ni kuzuia uchumi wa nchi ya Urusi kuweza kuendesha vita vya uvamizi dhidi ya Ukraine. Katika maana nyingine wanachotaka ni kuufanya Uchumi wa Urusi uweze kudorora kwa muda mrefu. WB na IMF watoa takwimu zao za National Development Outlook, ambazo baadhi ya takwimu zake zipo hapo juu. Kiuchumi naomba nieleweshwe, kwasasa taifa la Urusi lipo sehemu gani kiuchumi kati ya hizi mbili:
Is Russian Economy facing a recession, ???
Is Russian Economy facing a Soft Landing, ???
At what point can we say, Russia is facing a recession or a soft-landing, ???
Nashukuru kwa maswali, kiongozi wa mjadala!
Nitajibu swali la kwanza kama ifuatavyo:
Hizo ripoti za IMF za hivi karibuni kuhusiana na uchumi wa Urusi zimezua mjadala mkubwa miongoni mwa wataalamu, wachumi bila kusahau wanahabari duniani. Media maarufu ikiwemo Reuters ilitoka na article yenye kichwa cha habari:
The IMF's outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true. Ndio maana katika mchango wangu uliopita, nilizungumza kuhusu hali ya kuaminika kwa taarifa zilizopo kwa sababu nimeona hizi takwimu za IMF zikitumika humu kujengea hoja kwamba "vikwazo havifanyi kazi".
The IMF's outlook on Russia is too rosy to be true:
The IMF recently estimated that Russia's economy will avoid a recession in 2023 and expand after a year of shrinking. This forecast looks too positive, columnist Pierre Briançon writes.
www.reuters.com
Ili kujibu swali lako la kwanza, nitanukuu vyanzo mbalimbali ili kuonesha jinsi ambavyo takwimu hizo zimeleta shida na kuzua upinzani mkubwa katika uwanja wa uchumi.
Tafiti mbalimbali za kiuchumi zikiwemo ambazo nimezileta hapa katika post iliyopita zinapingana kwa kiasi kikubwa na utabiri wa IMF. Miongoni mwa wakosoaji wakubwa wa makisio ya uchumi yaliyotolewa na IMF kuhusu maendeleo ya uchumi wa Urusi ni Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld wa Yale University nchini Marekani.
Miongoni mwa maandiko yake kuhusu hilo, akishirikiana na wachumi wengine kama vile Stephen Samuel Roach, mhadhiri mkuu [Yale School of Management] ambaye pia aliwahi kufanya kazi Morgan Stanley kama chief economist, unaweza kulipata kwenye website ya gazeti la Fortune lenye kichwa cha habari:
How the IMF naively parroted Putin's fake statistics–and botched its economic forecast for Russia.
Article hiyohiyo imechapishwa pia kwenye website ya Yale School of Management (Yale Insights) yenye title:
With 'Zero Visibility' into the Russian Economy, the IMF is Parroting Putin's Line.
Links hizi hapa:
The IMF simply does not have the data it needs to independently calculate Russia’s GDP by any accepted method.
fortune.com
Rather than admitting ignorance, write Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Stephen Roach, and Steven Tian, the IMF is accepting the Kremlin’s statistics—and fueling pessimism about the impact of sanctions.
insights.som.yale.edu
Ili kurahisisha mambo, hivi hapa chini ni vipande vichache vya andiko hilo:
Article imeendelea kwa kusema;
Hoja kubwa ya Jeffrey Sonnenfeld na wenzake ni kuwa, kwa sasa IMF haina taarifa za kutosha kuhusiana na uchumi wa Urusi ili kuwawezesha wataalamu wake kukokotoa na kutoa makadirio yenye kuridhisha kitaalamu, huku kukiwa na ushahidi wa wazi kabisa wa wataalamu wa IMF sanjari na mashirika mengine kunyimwa taarifa muhimu za kiuchumi na serikali ya Urusi mara baada ya uvamizi wake.
Katika hiyo article, kuna mahali wameambatanisha link yenye nyaraka ambayo ndani yake kuna kauli kutoka IMF kwenda kwa Sonnenfeld na timu yake (Yale University) kuhusiana na takwimu zilizotolewa na shirika lao. Katika hiyo statement, IMF inakiri kuwepo kwa sintofahamu kubwa (massive uncertainty) kuhusiana na mustakabali wa uchumi wa urusi hali ambayo inapelekea kuwepo kwa utata mwingi kwenye issue ya kutoa makisio.
Nimechukua kipande (screenshot) cha hiyo statement kutoka katika hiyo nyaraka yenye takwimu na makisio ya uchumi wa Urusi. Inasema;
"We agree that there is massive uncertainty surrounding the future of the Russian economy, and hence doing a forecast could be seen as a "fool's errand"."
Wametumia msemo "fool's errand" wakikubali kwamba kitendo cha kufanya utabiri wa kiuchumi kuhusu Urusi katika mazingira ya sasa kinaweza kutafsiriwa kama kazi ya kijinga isiyo na tija. Statement hiyo vilevile inasapoti kile nilichokisema kuhusu Data Integrity na uhaba wa upatikanaji wa taarifa za kutosha.
Screenshot:
Nyaraka nzima iko katika muundo wa PPTX:
yale.app.box.com
Mkosoaji mwingine ni huyu anayefahamika kama Agathe Demarais ambaye ni mchumi, pia ni mtaalamu wa vikwazo vya kiuchumi kutoka kitengo cha utafiti wa masuala ya kiuchumi duniani (Economist Intelligence Unit) chini ya The Economist Group [media company]. Moja ya maandiko yake utalipata kwenye website ya Foreign Policy lenye title ambayo iko straightforward:
Don't Trust Russia's Numbers (Moscow has made economic statistics a central part of its information war). Yeye amejikita zaidi kuelezea nguzo kuu za kile anachokiita "Russia's disinformation" kuhusiana na mwenendo wa uchumi wake.
Link:
Moscow has made economic statistics a central part of its information war.
foreignpolicy.com
Demarais anasema kwamba;
The latest controversy surrounds the state of the Russian economy and what Western media and others have been reporting to their audiences. Read anything about the war in Ukraine these days, and you'll probably find a mention that the Russian economy contracted by about 2 percent in 2022—a low decline that suggests little more than a mild recession. That number has entered the policy debate: For some, the low figure is proof that the Russian economy is resilient and sanctions do not work. Others use the same figure to argue that sanctions are starting to bite and Western countries should double down. These opposing arguments have one thing in common: They rely on a largely meaningless number.
Ukiendelea kumsoma huyo mchumi, anataja sababu kadhaa zilizochangia kuonesha huo upungufu mdogo ulioripotiwa tofauti na ilivyotarajiwa baada ya uvamizi wa Urusi mwaka 2022.
Even if Russia's reported GDP decline were truthful, it is clear that three factors artificially boosted the Russian growth number in 2022. First, the economic growth figure has been fueled by Russia's turbocharged production of military gear. Producing tanks and missiles does not improve living standards, however, and this part of Russian GDP will quickly be destroyed on the battlefield. Second, Russia's export earnings jumped in 2022 because of the war-induced spike in energy prices. And third, Western embargos on technology and other goods as well as sinking Russian consumer demand led to a plunge in imports, which dropped by almost 10 percent during 2022, according to Russia's official data.
Mwisho wa kunukuu!
Kwa kifupi, hoja yake kubwa ni kuwa, Urusi imekuwa ikichezea takwimu za uchumi wake kama sehemu ya disinformation war dhidi ya nchi za magharibi ili kujibu ama kukabiliana na hoja au tuhuma kwamba uchumi wa Urusi umedorora kutokana na vikwazo. Hivyo, taarifa hafifu za kiuchumi zinazotolewa na Urusi hazikidhi vigezo au sifa za kuweza kuaminika kutoa makisio yanayoweza kukubalika kiuchumi.
Swali la pili:
Current account surplus, kwa lugha rahisi ni hali ya kiuchumi ambapo thamani ya bidhaa na huduma zinazozalishwa kupelekwa nje (exports) zinazidi thamani ya bidhaa na huduma zinazoingia nchini (imports).
Kwa kifupi kuhusiana na rekodi ya current account surplus ya Urusi mwaka 2022:
Kushuka kwa thamani ya imports kumechagizwa na uamuzi wa makampuni mengi ya nchi za magharibi kujiondoa na kuondoa biashara zao nchini Urusi kutokana na vikwazo. Kilichoongeza thamani ya exports ni mapato ya mafuta na gesi kutokana na kuongezeka kwa bei ya nishati kulikochochewa na vita inayoendelea. Hiyo ni kabla ya bidhaa hizo hususani mafuta kuwekewa vikwazo.
Tafuta takwimu za hivi karibuni; current account surplus imepungua kutokana na kushuka kwa mapato yatokanayo na mafuta na gesi. Again, narudia, Urusi imesitisha utoaji wa taarifa muhimu za kiuchumi, zikiwemo data zake za capital outflow mwaka huu.
Kuhusu swali la tatu:
Uchumi wa Urusi hauko kwenye soft landing bali ulishaingia kwenye recession kwa mujibu wa data zilizotolewa mara ya mwisho na Urusi yenyewe. Hakuna mjadala kuhusu uchumi wa Urusi kuwa kwenye recession ama kinyume chake kwa sababu kwa mujibu wa wachumi wa pande zote, Urusi iko kwenye recession. Mabishano yako kwenye kiwango cha recession ilichonacho Urusi.
Kwa mujibu wa takwimu rasmi za GDP za mwaka 2022 zilizotolewa na Urusi, uzalishaji ulianguka kwa asilimia takribani 4.1 na 4 katika robo mbili mfululizo (3&4) ukilinganisha na kipindi kama hicho mwaka mmoja uliopita. Maana yake ni kwamba Urusi ilikuwa kwenye technical recession katika vipindi hivyo viwili mwaka jana. Takwimu rasmi za robo ya nne hazikutolewa hadharani.
Mwaka huu, Urusi ilitoa ripoti ndogo kwamba uzalishaji ulianguka kwa asilimia 1.9 katika robo ya kwanza ya mwaka ukilinganisha na kipindi kama hicho mwaka 2022; ripoti ambayo bado inaonesha recession pamoja na kwamba wachumi kadhaa wamekataa kuziamini hizo taarifa. Hata ripoti mbalimbali za mashirika na taasisi nyinginezo [independent] zinasema kwamba uchumi wa Urusi bado uko kwenye contraction mwaka huu.
Asante!
