acha blah blah na uvivu wa kusoma! nenda kasome consumers price index utafafahamu tu au fuatilia oil crisis ambayo no universal crisis, ndio utafahamu kwanini tuna hali hiyo
Tanzania 2011 inflation seen returning to double-digits
Tue Feb 15, 2011
By Fumbuka Ng'wanakilala
DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) - Rising food and fuel prices coupled with a chronic energy shortage are expected to push Tanzania's inflation rate back to double-digit levels in 2011, analysts said on Tuesday.
The east African country's year-on-year inflation rate was up for the third successive month to 6.4 percent in January from 5.6 percent in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.
"We will very soon hit a double-digit inflation rate this year because of energy shortages at the domestic level and the rise of crude oil prices at the world market," said leading Tanzanian economist Haji Semboja.
"Starting in mid February to March and onwards, we will see a full swing increase of the inflation rate."
Tanzania's full-year 2010 inflation rate fell to 5.5 percent from 12.1 percent in 2009.
Analysts said last month they expected Tanzania's inflation rate to also creep higher in 2011 due to the impact on food prices of dry weather and higher production costs.
Inflation rates in east Africa often depend on weather because food carries significant weights in consumer price baskets. The region relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture and drought in the past few years has hit its economies badly.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages have a 47.8 percent weight in Tanzania's basket of goods used to measure inflation. It was cut from 55.9 percent in October in an overhaul of the calculation methodology.
Higher fuel and food prices have also contributed to rising inflation rates this year in other countries in the east African region such as Kenya, Uganda, Mauritius and Ethiopia.
ENERGY CRISIS
The year-on-year inflation rate for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel -- which has a weight of 9.2 percent -- leapt to 17.7 percent in January from 12.1 percent in December.
The price of food and non-alcoholic beverages in January was 7.1 percent higher than a year earlier, down from 7.3 percent in December. Bread and cereal, meat, fish, vegetables and sugar prices all rose, the NBS said.
The monthly headline inflation rate for January rose by 2.4 percent, largely due to an increase in food and non-food prices.
Tanzania's state-run power firm raised tariffs by 18.5 percent in January amid chronic outages in the country.
Blackouts imposed in Christmas by the Tanzania Electric Supply Company have continued into 2011.
"Apart from the scarcity of electricity, tariffs were also raised this year. The energy crisis has pushed up the costs of doing business in Tanzania and will ultimately affect the inflation rate," Humphrey Moshi, professor of economics at the University of Dar es Salaam, told Reuters.
"The trend is that the inflation rate will continue to rise throughout the year. There will be a lot of speculation because of the ongoing energy crisis and rising fuel prices caused by political turmoil in oil-producing Arab countries."
Ufisadi wa DOWANS, mgao wa umeme unaoendelea kuendelea kuvuruga uchumi wa nchi. Kagame wa Rwanda ameweza kushusha inflation mpaka -6.52% (a negative inflation rate or deflation). Huku bei ya sukari, petroli, umeme, sembe, maharage, ada za shule, zinapanda kila kucha. Haya ndiyo Maisha Bora kwa kila Mtanzania Kikwete aliyoahidi kutuletea?