Scientists are just beginning to recognize the amount of "viral chatter" that is occurring worldwide, discovering previously unknown pathogens in humans that sporadically make the jump from animals to humans.
Examples include a prion disease in cattle that jumped in the 1980s to cause variant Creutzeldt-Jacob disease in humans, a bat henipa virus that in 1999 became known as Nipah Virus in humans, and a bat corona virus that jumped to humans in 2002 to cause SARS.
Human and livestock population growth and encroachment into jungles increases human exposure to these previously rare crossovers.
No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur, but humans will continue to be vulnerable to pandemics, most of which will probably originate in animals.
An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible.
Unlike other disruptive global events, such an outbreak would result in a global pandemic that directly causes suffering and death in every corner of the world, probably in less than six months.
Unfortunately, this is not a hypothetical threat. History is replete with examples of pathogens sweeping through populations that lack preexisting immunity, causing political and economic upheaval, and determining the outcomes of wars and civilizations.
Examples include the Black Death that killed a third of Europeans; measles and smallpox in the Americas that may have killed 90 percent of the native population; and the 1918 influenza pandemic that decimated certain populations, including sickening more than 15 percent of German forces in June 1918.
The WHO has described one such pandemic, an influenza pandemic, as "the epidemiological equivalent of a flash flood.
" The WHO states, "[pandemics] have started abruptly without warning, swept through populations globally with ferocious velocity, and left considerable damage in their wake."
Novel pandemic pathogens that spread more slowly but are just as deadly, if not more so, such as HIV/AIDS, are just as likely to emerge by 2030. In fact, such a slow-moving pathogen with pandemic potential may have already jumped into humans somewhere, but the pathogen and disease manifestations may not be recognized yet.
This was the case for HIV/AIDS, which entered the human population more than a half century before it was recognized and the pathogen identified.
New discoveries in the biological sciences hold promise for more rapidly identifying pathogens and developing targeted therapeutics and vaccines; however, such advances may be inadequate to keep up with the threat.
Drug-resistant forms of diseases previously considered conquered, such as tuberculosis, gonorrhoea, and Staphylococcus aureus could become widespread, markedly increasing health-care costs and returning large segments of populations to the equivalent of the pre-antibiotic era.
Advances in genetic engineering by 2030 may enable tens of thousands of individuals to synthesize and release novel pathogens, compounding the already formidable naturally occurring threat.
Examples include a prion disease in cattle that jumped in the 1980s to cause variant Creutzeldt-Jacob disease in humans, a bat henipa virus that in 1999 became known as Nipah Virus in humans, and a bat corona virus that jumped to humans in 2002 to cause SARS.
Human and livestock population growth and encroachment into jungles increases human exposure to these previously rare crossovers.
No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur, but humans will continue to be vulnerable to pandemics, most of which will probably originate in animals.
An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible.
Unlike other disruptive global events, such an outbreak would result in a global pandemic that directly causes suffering and death in every corner of the world, probably in less than six months.
Unfortunately, this is not a hypothetical threat. History is replete with examples of pathogens sweeping through populations that lack preexisting immunity, causing political and economic upheaval, and determining the outcomes of wars and civilizations.
Examples include the Black Death that killed a third of Europeans; measles and smallpox in the Americas that may have killed 90 percent of the native population; and the 1918 influenza pandemic that decimated certain populations, including sickening more than 15 percent of German forces in June 1918.
The WHO has described one such pandemic, an influenza pandemic, as "the epidemiological equivalent of a flash flood.
" The WHO states, "[pandemics] have started abruptly without warning, swept through populations globally with ferocious velocity, and left considerable damage in their wake."
Novel pandemic pathogens that spread more slowly but are just as deadly, if not more so, such as HIV/AIDS, are just as likely to emerge by 2030. In fact, such a slow-moving pathogen with pandemic potential may have already jumped into humans somewhere, but the pathogen and disease manifestations may not be recognized yet.
This was the case for HIV/AIDS, which entered the human population more than a half century before it was recognized and the pathogen identified.
New discoveries in the biological sciences hold promise for more rapidly identifying pathogens and developing targeted therapeutics and vaccines; however, such advances may be inadequate to keep up with the threat.
Drug-resistant forms of diseases previously considered conquered, such as tuberculosis, gonorrhoea, and Staphylococcus aureus could become widespread, markedly increasing health-care costs and returning large segments of populations to the equivalent of the pre-antibiotic era.
Advances in genetic engineering by 2030 may enable tens of thousands of individuals to synthesize and release novel pathogens, compounding the already formidable naturally occurring threat.