Transition traps, President Samia and the first 100 days mark: How well did she perform?

[Doctor Mama Amon]

A multi-stage rocket taking off from the earth's surface into the space, symbolizing President Samia's take-off as a new President of the 6th phase government in Tanzania​

A Rocket needs an initial velocity big enough to launch it in the outer space where it is stable.

Has President Samia taken off at a sufficient initial velocity? On 27 June 2021 we should answer this question faithfully.

========UPDATES AND FEEDBACK=======

 

[Manton]

Actions speak louder than words.

 

[Foxhound]

Ndugu yangu kumbuka upo jukwaa la SIASA sio POLITICS forum.
[emoji2377][emoji2377][emoji2377]

 

[Kichakoro]

You have highlighted issues you expected from the President and your response is to general.

I expected you to state your assessment for each question by sayying what she has accomplished, what is still lacking and work in progress. Instead of general or ambiguous comment "affirmative".

In my view, she is on track to unapack the policies, personnel, plans that are colossal to her regime. But she might be "afraid" of some of her political party.

For example the issue of SGR going to Mwanza instead of Kigoma has been on the media for long and statistics tells all.

Issue of Covid 19 in the parliament, issue of grand corruption raised by CAG, port and BoT.

 

[Doctor Mama Amon]

You have highlighted issues you expected from the President and your response is to general.

I expected you to state your assessment for each question by sayying what she has accomplished, what is still lacking and work in progress. Instead of general or ambiguous comment "affirmative".

In my view, she is on track to unapack the policies, personnel, plans that are colossal to her regime. But she might be "afraid" of some of her political party.

For example the issue of SGR going to Mwanza instead of Kigoma has been on the media for long and statistics tells all.

Issue of Covid 19 in the parliament, issue of grand corruption raised by CAG, port and BoT.

Ha ha ha You have fallen into the same trap you say captured me.
I expected you to comment on each question.
Can you do that?

 

[Makupa]

View attachment 1828674

A multi-stage rocket taking off from the earth's surface into the space, symbolizing President Samia's take-off as a new President of the 6th phase government in Tanzania​

The first 100 days of any career transition, be it a vertical promotion, a new job, a lateral transfer, or a presidential power transfer, are critical and can determine if one succeeds or fails in the new role.

Specifically, the process of presidential power transition is very much like launching a four stage rocket into space orbit.

The task of the first rocket stage is to impart the initial thrust needed to overcome earth’s gravity and thus to lift the total weight of the rocket and its payload off of earth.

When the first-stage propellants are used up, that stage falls back to Earth, as the second stage continues to accelerate the vehicle.

Then, the third stage takes over before the fourth stage continues to accelerate the rocket until when it attains height that allows it to acquire the velocity that is equivalent to the earth’s which it has to orbit.

Thus, the success or failure of rocket launch is often determined within the first four stages of uplift.

Similarly, the success or failure of a new leader in a political, business or similar office is often determined within the first three or four months on the job.

Specifically, taking a presidential oath, securing early credibility by avoiding early losses, laying a strong foundation by unleashing key priorities, and articulating an inspiring long-term vision, lifts a new leader off the ground and provide the thrust necessary to achieve political orbit stability and avoid performance failures.

A weakness in any one of these dimensions would signal trouble ahead. When the President has serious problems in all three areas, that’s a sure sign of a transition going off the rails.

Against this background, President Samia of Tanzania will hit at her 100 days mark on 29 June 2021. There is neither legally mandated nor universally agreed upon assessment framework. But, I propose that, the following broad criteria should be used to appraise her performance on 29 June 2021.

Specifically, in evaluating President Samia along these dimensions, there are three key questions we should ask.

The first dimension of securing early credibility entails the following main question: Did Samia avoid falling victim to common transition traps that can potentially derail her political future? This question branches into the following sub-questions:

• Did she assume she knows what is required, and then rush into action?
• Did she assume that what worked for her predecessor would automatically work for her in the new role?
• Did she identify potential organizational misalignments and develop an initial plan to address them?
• Did she build or undermine her personal credibility with key stakeholders including the public servants, the parliament, the judiciary, civil society organizations and the media?

To most of these questions my response is affirmative. For those few to which I respond negatively, it is my observation that, Samia is working hard in a positive direction.

The second dimension of laying a foundation entails the following main question: Did Samia build a strong foundation by unleashing key priorities to be attended during the remaining part of her five years term in office? This question branches into the following sub-questions:

• Has she championed a development agenda that addresses the right social, political, economic and financial issues?
• Has she appointed a strong team of officials to develop her priorities into a meaningful strategic plan and press for their implementation?
• Has she initiated or secured the parliament in the drafting and passage of key enabling legislations in the social, political, economic and financial sectors?

To most of these questions my response is affirmative. However, a lot remains to be done in finalizing the third five years development plan (2021/22-2025/26), drafting of ministerial and LGA development strategies, appointing competent public servants in key positions, and causing enabling legislations.

The third dimension of articulating a compelling vision entails the following main question: Did Samia articulate an inspiring long-term vision for what she will accomplish during her five years tenure? This question branches into the following sub-questions:

• Has she begun to define and communicate a compelling vision for what she will accomplish during his first term?
• Does her vision strike the right balance between ambition and realism in a way that motivates people to make the necessary shared sacrifices to move the country forward?

With minor qualifications, to all these questions my response is affirmative.

This having been said, I wish to conclude this analysis by stating that, President Samia has to work hard toward eradicating organizational misalignments currently existing in the government structure.

Also, many public servants who enjoyed political impunities during the fifth phase government remain on the government payroll, enjoying tax payers money.

They are the main reason why the 2020 general elections were sharply tipped in favor of the opposition. So, if this anomaly is left unattended, President Samia may suffer heavy consequences come 2025 general elections.

Given the state of affairs she had to face following demise of JPM ,our beloved mama Samiah needs at least 300 hundred days to set the ball rolling.

 

[Doctor Mama Amon]

Given the state of affairs she had to face following demise of JPM ,our beloved mama Samiah needs at least 300 hundred days to set the ball rolling.

Since President Roosevelt's time, the standard has always been 100 days. Moreover, given the majority she enjoys in the parliament, and recalling the urgency of demagulification of Tanzania that prevailed when she assumed power, she was expected by many to normalise the situation within no more than 100 days. The present context allows her to do that, even within 7 days...

 

[Makupa]

Since President Roosevelt's time, the standard has always been 100 days. Moreover, given the majority she enjoys in the parliament, and recalling the urgency of demagulification of Tanzania that prevailed when she assumed power, she was expected by many to normalise the situation within no more than 100 days. The present context allows her to do that, even within 7 days...

Demagufication of Tanzania cant be done in just 100 days,remember that magufuli was in power for more than five years.