Tuna chochote cha kujifunza toka Eurozone?

[Nguruvi3]

Mchambuzi,

Kuhusu hoja ya Zitto ya hela chafu mimi nilishngaa sana kuona serikali na bunge likiifanya hoja hiyo kama kituko. Kama ulivoeleza pesa chafu huinngizwa katika mkondo wa uchumi kwa makusudi mengi ikiwemo kuzisafisha. Kunapotokea opportunity nzuri sehemu nyingine ni rahisi sana kuhamishwa usiku mmoja.

Kunapokuwepo na political uncertainty pesa hizo ambazo zinakuwa zimetakata baada ya sabuni ya system zinazweza kueyeyuka bila matarajio.

Lakini muhimu sana zinaathiri mipango ya nchi. Mathalan, BoT inaweza kukosa nguvu za kudhibiti inflation kutokana na kuwa na mzunguko usiolingana na uchumi wa nchi. Hili ni hatari sana.

Suala la pili umeongelea kuhusu politics kama supreme ya kila jambo. Nadhani hapa wanasiasa wetu lazima wajifunze. Kwa wenzetu vitu kama central bank of Europe au banks katika respective countries zinakuwa chini ya utaalam na wataalam wa uchumi. Kwa upande wetu wa EAC mambo haya yamekuwa ya kisiasa. Hapa nina wasi wasi kama kweli wachumi wanashirikishwa kuelewa nini kinaendelea behind closed door za politicians.

Tatu, nimeandika hapo awali kuwa umuhimu kwanza ni kuimarisha institutions muhimu hasa za kiuchumi halafu monetary union itatokea tu. Kwanza lazima uwe na msingi na si kuanza kwa kuezeka bati.

Swali moja ambalo ningependa nikuulize:
Katika hatua ulizotaja ninahakika wenzetu wa Eurozone pamoja na wananchi wao walizelewa vema. Tunafahamu EU ilianza miaka zaidi ya 30 iliyopita wakipitia hatua hizo moja baada ya nyingine. Sasa nini kimetokea hadi wawe katika position waliyonayo?

 

[Mdondoaji]

Mchambuzi ,

Kuna mambo nakubaliana na wewe but nadhani kuna kitu you are either overexagirating or maybe I fail to understand it properly. Unapozungumzia kuanguka kwa Cyprus kumesababishwa na Foreign Portfolio Investments kwasababu kuna fedha chafu zimeingizwa katika trading of stocks and bonds in domestic markets. Kwa kweli that is just a hearsay! Empirical evidence suggest otherwise. Foreign Portfolio Investment are actually good for Economy kwani zimechangia kupanua makampuni, viwanda, sekta ya benki nk. Mfano upo katika nchi kama UK, US na Brazil ambapo foreign investors have been an important factor into the growth of the economy of these countries. In fact nchi kama UK are reducing the tax on foreign wealthy investors to attract them to invest into their economy. Therefore, I do not see the link between FPI and economic collapse.

Otherwise, nakubaliana na wewe kwenye fedha chafu. In fact nilikuwa nasema kuna haja ya kufuatilia hizi account zilizopo katika offshore banks. Kwani hizi ni banks ambazo zinatumika sana kuficha fedha chafu. Offshore bank zina urasimu na usiri mwingi kiasi kwamba ni ngumu sana kupata information of the account holders in those banks. Dirty money nakubaliana na wewe kwamba fedha chafu ni hatari kwa uchumi kwanii mechanism of control are very risky na actually dirty money hazipo kwenye account za nje hata ndani ya nchi. Hata nchini mwetu naweza kuuliza swali la msingi NI KINA NANI WANAFUATILIA UWEZO WA WATU WANAOJENGA MAGOROFA HAPA MJINI DAR? Kwani hakuna anayehoji ni wapi wamepata hizo fedha walizopata kujengea nyumba. Therefore, kuna haja ya kuwa policy makini yenye kufuatilia sio tu fedha za nje uhalali wake bali hata fedha za ndani uhalali wake pia ukoje?

Tukirejea katika hoja ya Cyprus, nadhani kuna kitu kimoja unakisahau ni kwamba Cyprus economy was doing very well before the banking crisis of 2008. The country GDP was expanding at moderate and very attractive pace in comparison to other European countries. The real GDP growth rate ilifikia hadi 5% in 2006-2007. Kutoka na hiyo situation tunaona kuwa Cyprus government went to the EU with the aim of boosting their banking sector and economy. Huku wakiua sekta nyenginezo kama utalii na viwanda pamoja. Cyprus became heavily dependant on the financial sector huku wakivutia wawekaji pesa kutoka nchi za nje kuweza kusaidia kukuza uchumi wao.

Mfano huo hapo juu unaonyesha kuwa hata kama tutaungana na EAC ni vema kwanza tukawa na policies zinazoweza kutunufaisha sie na sio wengine. Cyprus iligeuka kuwa heaven ya wavusha hela chafu badala ya kukuza uchumi kutokana na kujiunga EU. Hilo hilo linaweza kutukumba sie pia kama hatujawa waangalifu.

Usiku mwema! Nilikuwapo!

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mdondoaji,

Sijasema cyprus imeangushwa na fedha chafu bali nilisema imechangiwa na the fact kwamba cyprus ni moja ya playgrounds za HOT MONEY na nikajadili dynamics za PFI kwamba ni fedha chafu, fedha za matajiri halali n.k; Bottom line is,kilichochangia crisis ya Cyprus ni madhara ya hot money in an economy,whether ni halali au chafu;

Iwapo ungetulia na kunisoma vizuri ungeona jinsi gani nimesema kwamba kwa uchumi legelege kama wetu na cyprus,we are better of na FDI than PFI,which implies PFI is more effective in more stable and advanced economies; lakini pia fanya utafiti on how much of Chinesse wealth is based on US stocks and how much the value of such wealth may fall by over over 100pct in the nxt 15yrs kutokana na variables such as inflation na value ya dollar vis a vis other major currencies; what does that tell u kuhusu our safety n comfort with hot money in LDCs context?

 

[joshuajr1]

kimsingi nchi za africa mashariki bado hazijakuwa chumi imara kuweza kufikia kuwa na muungano wa sarafu kinachotakiwa kwa sasa ni kuimarisha soko la pamoja ili kuinua uchumi wa nchi wanachama,tofauti na hapo tukifanya fast track kwa hili suala tutajikuta katika mdororo wa kiuchumi katika EA

 

[Dangote]

Maoni yangu ni kuwa, sio suala la sarafu 1 ya EAC hata kujiunga huko nadhan tumeburuzwa tu na sasa wanakimbilia kwenye monetary union mi nadhan tuuitishe referrendum kama kweli tunalihitaji hili shirikisho au la pm wa UK, D. Cameron ameahidi kufanya kura ya maoni kama wabakie EU au wajitoe na sie tufanye hivyo pls tusiburuzane.

Halafu tukiunganisha sarafu kwa viongozi wetu hawa nahisi tutacollapse na je nani atatubail out? Mchina au nani na what cost? Maana cost ambayo greece kalipa mhh economically, socially and politically is damn too high na sababu za greece kuanguka hapa kwetu zipo na zinaonekana wazi.

Jambo lingine tujifunze jamani kukopa ovyo sio kuzuri gdp yetu iko trilioni 38 hivi na deni letu lishafika more than 20 trilion tsh inamaana deni lishafika 60% ya gdp yetu hii hatari tunaelekea huko kwa greece hizo figures za GDP ni makadirio mwenye data za uhakika kamili anaweza kuweka kwa faida zaidi ila yeyote atakaye chukua nchi kwa JK 2015 kazi anayo na yeye akiendelea na style ya JK basi by 2020 na sie tutakua Greece ya Afrika

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Mataifa yenye maendeleo duniani inabidi tujiulize Mungu wao anaitwa nani? Khalafu kuanzia hapo mjadala uchangamke.

We are here on a purpose if we fail to grasp that purpose we are doomed.

 

[Kigarama]

Mataifa yenye maendeleo duniani inabidi tujiulize Mungu wao anaitwa nani? Khalafu kuanzia hapo mjadala uchangamke. We are here on a purpose if we fail to grasp that purpose we are doomed.

Kujua jina tu hakusaidii. Je Mungu wao ndiye mungu wetu? Lakini mambo mengine tunamsingizia mungu. Hata hao walioendelea wengi wao hawaamini kama kuna mungu wala matendo yao kuhusu mungu kwa viwango vyetu ni matendo ya kishetani. Hapa ni sisi jinsi tunavyovitumia vipawa tulivyopewa na mungu. Mungu hawezi kuja kutuchagulia viongozi bora au kutusaidia kudai viongozi wetu watimize wajibu wao au kujali maslahi yetu. Tumejifunza kuwa wabobezi kwenye ujinga na kujenga upumbavu wa kuamini hatuna uwezo wa kubadili hali iliyopo. Aina yetu ya chaguzi inatisha kwa kuegemea udini na ukabila badala ya kujikitia kwenye kuchagua viongozi wanaoweza kupambana na changamoto zinazotukabili. Tusimsingizie MUNGU.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mkuu Nguruvi3,

Ume raise interesting points bandiko namba 18 na 21 ambazo mjadala wake hakika utatupa somo zuri sana juu ya changamoto zinazotukabili EAC; Kwa sasa naomba nijikite zaidi katika kujadili swali lako juu ya kwanini Europe ipo kwenye mgogoro leo tofauti na huko nyuma,hasa ikizingatiwa kwamba wamepitia hatua zote muhimu za muungano wa kiuchumi hivyo walikuwa katika nafasi nzuri zaidi ya kuona changamoto zijazo n.k; nadhani swali lako linalenga hapo...

Kwa mtazamo wangu, na nitaomba mawazo yako pia, ni kwamba,mgogoro wa EU una sura mbili au tuseme unaweza jadiliwa in two schools of thought; first school of thought inahusiana na hoja yako kwenye bandiko namba 18 kuhusu EAC ni kwamba kuna tatizo juu ya utayari wa kitaasisi hata EU zone; Mfumo wowote wa kitaasisi unategemea sana political will,kwa maana hii, political union EU inaweza kuwa ni suluhisho la mgogoro wa sasa EU zone; nina maana gani? Mfano bora duniani wa economic integration ni the US; ingawa tunaitazama leo kama nchi moja na kuichukulia for granted,wengi tunasahau kwamba "US inaelea kwasababu imeundwa"; tofauti na EU, US ina taasisi imara zinazosaidia sana to backup a single currency; Europe wanapwaya katika hili, na moja ya njia kuu,if not the only one to resolve this problem ni political union;

Hiyo ni school of thought ya kwanza, hasa on how I think we can approach suala hili na kulielewa,hivyo kuwa in a better position kujiadhari na matatizo EAC; kabla ya kuingia kwenye second school of thought, naomba nijadili zaidi kidogo suala la EAC expansion relative to EU tuone nini tunaweza jifunza; je,expansion of an economic zone should be driven na lili hasa baina ya economic and political factors?economic factors simply ni pamoja na uwepo wa sound economic framework on the macro level, na political factors zaidi ni strong institutions to backup single currency and centralized fiscal and monetary policies;

Nasema au nahoji haya kutokana na the fact kwamba Europe ya zamani na ya sasa tofauti yake kubwa ni expansion na pia adoption of a single currency kwa nchi zaidi ya kumi na tano; as of 1990,EU ilikuwa na wanachama 12 huku kila mtu akiwa na sarafu yake; leo wapo karibia 30 huku zaidi ya nusu ya wanachama wakiwa wanatumia sarafu moa;swali linalofuata ni je,based on hoja yako bandiko namba 18 juu ya umuhimu wa maandalizi ya kitaasisi kwetu EAC before considering a single currency,je kwa EU,hizi nchi nyingine ndogondogo zilizingatia hoja yako in the context of EAC? Kwa mtazamo wangu,ingawa kuna criteria za kukubaliwa jiunga na Eurozone,bado kuna mapungufu mengi katika utayari wa kitaasisi kwa nchi kama cyprus, greece n.k; hapa pia tujiulize iwapo extension ya burundi,rwanda,and I think south sudan was rational - politically and economically na kwamba haitaleta matatizo huko mbeleni;

Kuchanganya mataifa imara kiuchumi na kitaasisi na yale legelege katika sarafu moja lazima kutaleta matatizo, na UK na US miaka ya mwisho ya tisini walikuwa very skeptical na success ya euro, na sasa tunaona walikuwa right;ingawa euro hado leo perfoms well as a currency vi as vis dollar,bado haina maana kwamba europe is doing good kwani kasi ya kukua kwa uchumi EU ni very slugish,so kuwa na strong currency fueling a poor perfoming economic zone means kuna tatizo katika sarafu hii and things might get worse;ebu tazama jinsi hani kauchumi kadogo kama cyprus kanavyo send a shock wave to economic power house kama ujerumani...hivi kweli,is is right kwa hatima ya taifa kubwa kama ujerumani kuwa tied na matukio kwenye uchumi mdogo kama cyprus?kuna tatizo katika ubora wa vigezo vya kuruhusu matumizi ya sarafu moja hasa katika nchi zenye madhaifu katika usimamizi wa mikopo ya ndani,fedha n.k;

The Second school of thought ni kwamba - kiini cha mgogoro wa Eurozone ni ukosefu wa political and cultural identity imara yenye uwezo wa kuunga mkono matumizi ya sarafu moja; mfano mzuri ni hoja yako bandiko kumi na nane juu ya sarafu ya malkia Uingereza,lakini mbaya zaidi ni wananchi wa smaller EU member states kuhisi kwamba kuna aina mpya ya ukoloni unaoendelea ambapo monetary policies zinafanyika brussels na frankfurt,similar to vilio vyetu kuhusiana na maamuzi juu ya hatima yetu kufanywa board rooms za IMF na WorldBank Washington;

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[jouneGwalu]

Mkuu jouneGwalu hapo ndipo utamkumbuka Nyerere.

Safu ya uongozi wa sasa watazama leo kesho itajijua yenyewe. Tazama migogoro ya kidini tulisema tangu mwanzo wanasiasa wanatumia dini lakini ipo siku yatawageuka leo udini uko wazi sababu ni watawala.

Ahsante Brother Ngongo!

Pia nishukuru zaidi wakuu wangu wote Nguruvi3 na Mchambuzi kwa elimu yenu ya bure juu ya masuala haya...

Mi labda nihitimishe kwa mshangao mmoja tu kuwa naamini hoja zote zilizoelezwa na wanaJF hapa ni zinafahamika na wachumi wetu wa baraza la wachumi wa afrika mashariki.

Sasa kama hali halisi na taarifa hizi zipo kwenye meza za watala wetu, hizi mbwembwe za kuutangazia ulimwengu kuwa eti ifikapo mwaka fulani tutakuwa na sarafu ya pamoja tulizitoa wapi??

Ndio maana hapo awali nikasema kuwa kama spidi hii inatokana na ushawishi wa wakubwa wa dunia ili tu kuifungamanisha "afrika mashariki" kama mteja mmoja kwa manufaa ya masoko ya bidhaa za magharibi, basi hapo sijui kitu gani kinaweza kufanyika ilikupunguza spidi hii na hapo ndio kwenye shaka yangu kama kuna la kujifunza japo darasa lipo wazi sana na bure!!!!!

Somo pekee linalobakia ni kwa umma kuwa na msukumo mpya katika kuziwajibisha serikali husika kisiasa (hasa sisi TZ) ni lazima tuisimamaishe CCM na utawala wake katika kutupeleka inapopajua yenyewe tu huku sisi wananchi tukibaki kushangaa tu.
Haiwezekani kama taifa kuwa "bangusiro" na tukabaki tunatoa macho tu... Sii sawa!

 

[Kigarama]

Hii kitu inayoitwa "Political will" ina sifa zipi za kuwakilisha matakwa na maslahi ya wananchi. Maana nilitaka kuuliza kama kuna "Political Will" kwenye kuelekea Jumuiya ya Afrika Mashariki na kuwa na sarafu moja.

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Kujua jina tu hakusaidii. Je Mungu wao ndiye mungu wetu? Lakini mambo mengine tunamsingizia mungu. Hata hao walioendelea wengi wao hawaamini kama kuna mungu wala matendo yao kuhusu mungu kwa viwango vyetu ni matendo ya kishetani. Hapa ni sisi jinsi tunavyovitumia vipawa tulivyopewa na mungu. Mungu hawezi kuja kutuchagulia viongozi bora au kutusaidia kudai viongozi wetu watimize wajibu wao au kujali maslahi yetu. Tumejifunza kuwa wabobezi kwenye ujinga na kujenga upumbavu wa kuamini hatuna uwezo wa kubadili hali iliyopo. Aina yetu ya chaguzi inatisha kwa kuegemea udini na ukabila badala ya kujikitia kwenye kuchagua viongozi wanaoweza kupambana na changamoto zinazotukabili. Tusimsingizie MUNGU.

Ninaafiki hizi khoja. Bali pia viongoz wabovu ni ushahidi kuwa nasi ni wabovu vinginevyo tungewakataa na wasingefua dafu!

 

[Skype]

Kwa pamoja naomba niwashukuru mtoa hoja pamoja na wajumbe waliochangia akiwemo Rutashubanyuma, Nguruvi3, Mchambuzi, na wengineo wengi. Kwa hakika nimeelimika na kupata mwanga ktk hili suala la ushirikiano wa nchi zetu hizi za walalahoi.

 

[EMT]

Ilikuwa ni Oktoba 19 mwaka 2009 wakati waziri Mkuu mpya wa serikali ya Ugiriki George Papandreou's alipotangaza kuwa Nakisi kwenye bajeti ya serikali yake itakuwa kubwa kuliko ilivyofikiriwa awali na nakisi hiyo itafikia asilimia 20 (20%) ya pato zima la taifa (GDP). Hapo ndipo mserereko wa uchumi wa Ulaya ulipoanza kushika kasi hadi kuweka kituo kwenye kufilisika kwa Mabenki ya Cyprus na kuparaganyika kwa ajira na uchumi wa nchi hiyo.

Kama taifa la Tanzania na mshirika mwenza kwenye kuanzishwa kwa sarafu ya pamoja ya Afrika Mashariki tuna chochote cha kujifunza toka Jumuiya ya Ulaya? Tumeweka mikakati gani ya kukabiliana na hatari kama zinazotokea kwenye nchi zinazotumia sarafu ya Euro (Euro zone)?

Chumi zetu zina uwezo wa kuanzisha sarafu ya pamoja au ni tamaa tu za kutaka sifa za kisiasa? Sera zetu za kifedha ziko imara kiasi gani na Benki zetu kuu ziko imara vya kutosha kwa sasa kusimamia ubadilishanaji, usafirishaji na uzungushaji wa fedha pamoja na usimamizi wa mikopo na riba toka kwenye tasisi za kifedha?

Kigarama,

Sidhani kiini cha tatizo la Ugiriki kimesababishwa na nchi hiyo kujiunga na Euro. Kama ingekuwa ni Euro basi hata nchi kama Ujerumani na Ufaransa zingekuwa katika hali mbaya.

Kumbuka Ugiriki ilikataliwa kujiunga na Euro wakati ilipoanzishwa rasmi mwaka 1999 kwa sababu ya kushindwa kutimiza masharti ya kiuchumi ya Umoja wa Ulaya. Ugiriki ililazimishwa kuchukua hatua madhubuti za kupunguza matumizi, ikiwa ni pamoja na kupunguza public spending ili iweze kujiunga na Euro.

Nchi hiyo ilikuja kujiunga na Euro mwaka 2001. Hata hivyo, baadhi ya investor walikuwa na wasiwasi na uamuzi wa kuruhusu Ugiriki kujiunga na Euro kutokana na kuwa na uchumi duni na matumuzi makubwa kwenye sekta ya umma. Ugiriki ilikuwa moja ya nchi za Ulaya zenye inflation rates ya hali ya juu. Hivyo, kabla ya kujiunga na Euro, ukopaji wake ulikuwa wa hali ya juu kinyume na taratibu za kujiunga na Euro.

Kwa hiyo, Ugiriki ilikuwa ikiishi zaidi ya uwezo wake hata kabla ya kujiunga na Euro. Matumizi makubwa yaliongezeka tuu baada ya kujiunga na Euro. Kwa mfano, mishahara kwenye sekta ya umma iliongezeka kwa asilimia 50 kati ya mwaka 1999 na 2007. Kuongezeka kwa mishahara ilifanyika kwa haraka zaidi kuliko nchi nyngine za Ulaya.

Pia tukumbuke kuwa Ugiriki ilikumbwa na deni kubwa baada ya kuandaa michezo ya Olimpiki mwaka 2004. Hii pia imechangiwa na kushindwa kuziendeleza zile venues za Olimpiki ili ziwe productive na hivyo kuchangia katika kulipia deni la Olimpiki. Wapo wanaosema kuwa Olimpiki ya mwaka 2004 ndiyo imeifanya Ugiriki iwe katika hali hii. Financially, hawakunufaika kabisa na Olimpiki iliyofanyika Athens.

Wakati Ugiriki ikiongeza matumizi zaidi, mapato yake pia yalipungua kutokana na watu kukwepa kulipa kodi. Hivyo basi, kutokana na miaka mingi ku-spend zaidi ya mapato, Ugiriki ilikumbwa na budget deficit.

Wakati huo huo, ukumbukwe kuwa nchi za Euro zimejiwekea kikomo cha kukopa amacho ni asilimia 3 ya GDP ya nchi husika. Lakini Ugiriki ilificha ukopaji wake mkubwa uliozidi asilimia 3 ya GDP yake, ili kujaribu kuoinyesha dunia kuwa ilikuwa inakopa kuliingana na makubaliano hayo ya nchi za Euro.

Sasa Credit Crunch ilipoanza, usiri wa mikopo ya Ugiriki ilianikwa hadharani bila nchi hiyo kutaka. Kutokana na Credit Crunch, wakopeshaji walikataa kuikopesha tena nchi hiyo na deni lilifikia sehemu ambayo nchi hiyo isingeweza tena kulipa madeni yake.

Kwa sababu hizo basi, Ugiriki ilikuwa haina tena ujanja zaidi ya kuomba mkopo mkubwa kutoka nchi nyingne za Umoja wa Ulaya na IMF.

The so called "Eurozone crisis" inawezekana ikawa ni propaganda tuu za wenye dola na pound. Kwani hakuna crisis kwenye dolazone na poundzone? Tofauti na Eurozone, nchi za dolazone na poundzone zina-rely kwenye benki kuu kununua madeni yao kupitia quantitative easing programmes (QE)."Economists argue that QE is the same principle as printing money as it is a deliberate expansion of the central bank's balance sheet and the monetary base." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15198789

Sijui akina Mchambuzi wanalisemeaje hili la QE?

 

[Mchambuzi]

EMT,

Nakubaliana na wewe kuhusiana na propaganda za wenye dollar na pound nyuma ya euro crisis na ndio maana katika bandiko langu hapo nyuma, nilijadili hilo japo kidogo hasa kueleza jinsi gani wachumi wa Marekani na Uingereza walikuwa very skeptical na idea ya Euro right from the outset; Pia katika bandiko langu awali, nilielezea kwamba suala hili linaweza angaliwa kupitia two schools of thought - ya kwanza ni lack of political will na ya pili ni ukosefu wa political and cultural identity ambayo ni muhimu katika kuunga mkono euro; Kwa mtazamo wangu, the overriding obstacle kwa mafanikio ya euro ni more political than economics or anything; Its all about a lack of political will, partially as you discussed hapo juu, and partially as i discussed earlier na pia kugusiwa na nguruvi3 in hasa relation to kutokuwepo kwa utayari wa kitaasisi katika nchi wanachama; Lack of political will Plus ukosefu wa utayari wa kitaasisi muhimu to backup a single currency kama ilivyo nchini marekani will lead to endless economic turmoils in the eurozone na pengine hata kutishia global economic order in the near future;

Kwa kifupi, utatuzi wa hili has more to do with Politics kuliko Economics;

Kigarama aliuliza swali muhimu sana kwamba:

"Hii kitu inayoitwa "Political will" ina sifa zipi za kuwakilisha matakwa na maslahi ya wananchi. Maana nilitaka kuuliza kama kuna "Political Will" kwenye kuelekea Jumuiya ya Afrika Mashariki na kuwa na sarafu moja."

Nitarejea kuchangia zaidi kuhusiana na QE ambayo simply ni informal monetary policy ambayo hutumika pale ambapo conventional monetary policy tools zinaposhindwa kufanya kazi; again, je kwenye euro, ni kweli conventional monetary policy tools zimegonga mwamba au its all political?

Pia nitarudi kujadili swali la kigarama...

 

[Kobello]

Ilikuwa ni Oktoba 19 mwaka 2009 wakati waziri Mkuu mpya wa serikali ya Ugiriki George Papandreou’s alipotangaza kuwa Nakisi kwenye bajeti ya serikali yake itakuwa kubwa kuliko ilivyofikiriwa awali na nakisi hiyo itafikia asilimia 20 (20%) ya pato zima la taifa (GDP). Hapo ndipo mserereko wa uchumi wa Ulaya ulipoanza kushika kasi hadi kuweka kituo kwenye kufilisika kwa Mabenki ya Cyprus na kuparaganyika kwa ajira na uchumi wa nchi hiyo.

Kama taifa la Tanzania na mshirika mwenza kwenye kuanzishwa kwa sarafu ya pamoja ya Afrika Mashariki tuna chochote cha kujifunza toka Jumuiya ya Ulaya? Tumeweka mikakati gani ya kukabiliana na hatari kama zinazotokea kwenye nchi zinazotumia sarafu ya Euro (Euro zone)?

Chumi zetu zina uwezo wa kuanzisha sarafu ya pamoja au ni tamaa tu za kutaka sifa za kisiasa? Sera zetu za kifedha ziko imara kiasi gani na Benki zetu kuu ziko imara vya kutosha kwa sasa kusimamia ubadilishanaji, usafirishaji na uzungushaji wa fedha pamoja na usimamizi wa mikopo na riba toka kwenye tasisi za kifedha?

Ni ndoto za alinacha kwa EA kuwa na common currency. It's a disaster waiting to happen, based on sophistication.

Mfumo wetu wa fedha haupo sophisticated enough to collect taxes, ku-supervise costoms na hata kuwa na common market. It's all about few cartels esp. in Kenya and Tanzania .... the system was not designed for the commoners.

But sophistication can be overriden by "political will" as aforementioned, kitu ambacho hakipo miongoni mwa wananchi wa EA kwa kutofahamu faida na hasara, au hata kutokujua maana yake ni nini.

Tutachoweza kujifunza kutoka Eurozone ni kwamba, Federation comes before Monetary union. You've to curb the political headaches first. The Eurozone lacks a central bank, and thats a big problem.More than 50% of greek debts are owned by French and German banks ... the question is, why buy greek bonds???

 

[Nguruvi3]

Mkuu EMT kuna mengi umeongea ya muhimu sana likiwemo la QE.
Lipo moja limenigusa haraka sana na nadhani lipo katika mada ya Kigarama

Wakati Ugiriki ikiongeza matumizi zaidi, mapato yake pia yalipungua kutokana na watu kukwepa kulipa kodi. Hivyo basi, kutokana na miaka mingi ku-spend zaidi ya mapato, Ugiriki ilikumbwa na budget deficit.

Nadhani katika nchi zetu za EAC suala la deficit limekuwa kama kitu cha kawaida. Kwa kuangalia mfano wa Ugiriki, je ni sahihi kuwa na single currency hata kabla ya kuweka fisca house zetu in order!

Na moja kati ya hoja za mchambuzi ni ile isemayo EU ilifanya expansion haraka sana. Nadhani alikusudia kuwa pengine wakubwa walitakiwa wasubiri ili wengine wajifunze kabla ya kuwabeba. Sijui na sisi ambao nilidhani tulitakiwa kwanza tuanze kama ilivyokuwa EAC ya nchi tatu na baadaye ndio tualike wengine hili halitatuathiri.

Mtazamo wenu tafadhali

 

[Nguruvi3]

Ni ndoto za alinacha kwa EA kuwa na common currency. It's a disaster waiting to happen, based on sophistication.

Mfumo wetu wa fedha haupo sophisticated enough to collect taxes, ku-supervise costoms na hata kuwa na common market. It's all about few cartels esp. in Kenya and Tanzania .... the system was not designed for the commoners.

But sophistication can be overriden by "political will" as aforementioned, kitu ambacho hakipo miongoni mwa wananchi wa EA kwa kutofahamu faida na hasara, au hata kutokujua maana yake ni nini.

Tutachoweza kujifunza kutoka Eurozone ni kwamba, Federation comes before Monetary union. You've to curb the political headaches first. The Eurozone lacks a central bank, and thats a big problem.More than 50% of greek debts are owned by French and German banks ... the question is, why buy greek bonds???

I can't agree with you more.
Kuna definition nyingi za hii terminology''Ni uwezo wa mamlaka husika kutumia nguvu za kisheria katika kusimamia mambo kwa makusudi yaliyotarajiwa hasa manufaa ya umma bila masharti'' Tafsiri hiyo si rasmi ni katika kutoa mwanga tu wa maneno hayo.

Kwa mtazamo huo katika EAC hakuna political will. Kilichopo ni 'narcissism and egoism'' kwa kutumia opportunity ya shirikisho. Kobelo amesema ni kwa ajili ya few cartels wanaotaka kulitumia shirikisho kwa manufaa yao.

Nakubaliana na hili kwasababu kama EAC ingelikuwa kuwa ajili ya commoners basi jambo la kwanza kama political will ni kuangalia masilahi ya commoners. Hilo halijatokea na mwanzo kabisa tuliona watu wakikimbilia kuwa na Capital movement ikiwemo suala la Ardhi. Hakuna aliyeangalia institutions muhimu kama za fedha, forodha, miundo mbinu, elimu na afya n.k

Mfano mmoja, ni zaidi ya miaka 10 tangu EAC irejeshwe. Katika miaka hiyo hatujaweza kuona central bank za nchi husika zikifanya ''stress test'' na kupata matokeo. Sasa tunawezaje kuwa na single currency katika mazingira hayo.
Hapo ndipo Kobelo amesema ''hatuna sophistication'' zinazoturuhusu kuwa na single currency.

Na pia ni miaka hiyo imepita bado hatujaweza ku-stabilize common market, kila siku kuna mitafaruku vipi tunaweza kuwa na single currency bila kuwa na economic turmoil.

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Kwa pamoja naomba niwashukuru mtoa hoja pamoja na wajumbe waliochangia akiwemo Rutashubanyuma, Nguruvi3, Mchambuzi, na wengineo wengi. Kwa hakika nimeelimika na kupata mwanga ktk hili suala la ushirikiano wa nchi zetu hizi za walalahoi.

Nimefarijika pia.

 

[Kobello]

Hii kitu inayoitwa "Political will" ina sifa zipi za kuwakilisha matakwa na maslahi ya wananchi. Maana nilitaka kuuliza kama kuna "Political Will" kwenye kuelekea Jumuiya ya Afrika Mashariki

France na Germany ambazo ziliathirika sana na vita kuu ya pili ndiyo nchi zilizoanzisha mchakato mzima wa EU. Ukiangalia kwa undani, second world war was about money na ili kuepusha vita kati ya mataifa ya ulaya; France na GERMANY (na England pia ila kiuvuguvugu) ndiyo zilipendekeza a complete political union in the future. Kumbuka kuwa Helmut Kohl na Francois Mitterand hawakuwa wachumi bali walikuwa driven by the effects of world war 2. So was Churchill.

Hesitantly and carefully technocrats wa Europe wakaanza kudesign jinsi ya kufikia lengo hilo, ndiyo wakaanza na EC, EEC, na vyombo vingine ambavyo hadithi yake ni ndefu but you can pick on one to justify a couple of points. Ila Europe ipo very different in cultures from one country to another .. France na Germany kwa mfano ni cultures mbili tofauti kwa hiyo politically si rahisi kuungana. Wananchi wake bado hawakuwa tayari, ingawa Ujerumani mashariki na magharibi ziliungana kirahisi mno kwa sababu ni watu wamoja ingawa walikuwa maadui kiserikali.

Kwa hiyo utaona kuwa, though more sophisticated than any other economic zone , Euro is highly challenged by the growing lack of political will from member countries to the point of classifying each other as central or peripheral.This makes austerity measures imposed by central countries to the failing peripheral countries hard to implement. A portuguese didn't vote for a Germany chancellor, so why would she dictate his/her life.

Sasa kuna Rwanda/Burundi/ Congo/Uganda na South Sudan ... hizi zote zina mikwaruzano ya kisiasa within and between each other. Kuna Kenya na Tanzania, ambazo historically bado kuna scars, so is between Kenya and Uganda to a certain extent. Hii ni sawa na obstacles ambazo zinaiface ASEAN community (China/Japan/India/Phillipines/Korean penninsular). Ukiwa na vitu kama hivi, una undermine the "Political will" to intergrate. Mahusiano yanabaki economically based .. yaani kama sifaidiki, basi sitaki uhusiano.

kwa ufupi, hakuna political will kutoka kwa watanzania ... tunaojua mfumo ulivyo hatuupendi na majority hawaujui mfumo ulivyo. EU legislator averages over 20 pages, 20 interns, most of them residing in Brussels going through legislations made up of thousands of pages written by technocrats representing Banks and other cartels. It takes a very patriotic countryman/woman to represent a country to these Unions. The likes of party-girl Bhanji representing me to the EAC legislature just scares me .... due to excessive fine-prints that comes along with these legislations. I hope we'll discuss more about these things cos if we're not careful .. kizazi cha shule za kata kitapata taabu sana. Personally I'm scared.

 

[EMT]

Mchambuzi na Nguruvi3,

Kuna article moja by Anne W. Kamau na Jessica Smith titled: "The Eurozone Crisis and Lessons for the Formation of an East African Monetary Union" (2011) inajaribu ku-address issues mlizoongelea. The most relevant part ya article inasema:

"The fast approaching deadline for the launch of the East African Monetary Union is June 2012 and EAC leaders have taken notice of the current turmoil in Europe. The EAC permanent secretary, Stergomena Bamwenda, has mentioned that if the necessary conditions are not in place before 2012 then the EAC will not go forward with the single monetary union. However, the EAC has continued to accelerate integration toward a monetary union with the development of a task force to address policy gaps that have been highlighted by the eurozone crisis.

Two main policy gaps in formation of the euro area have left it in its current state of instability. First, the design of the Eurozone did not provide a contingency plan or safety measures to deal with sovereign debt crises. There is no protocol for member states should they find it difficult to access markets to refinance their sovereign debt.

Second, 17 sovereign fiscal authorities govern the euro, which means it takes a lot of coordination to get anything done. In addition, there are no compelling mechanisms to enforce the commitments of member states. Some clear lessons emerge from the eurozone crisis that directly relate to the EAC and its path toward creating a single monetary union.

First, the process of further monetary integration of the EAC should not be expedited. Given the circumstances in Europe, it may be wise to wait and see how the euro-area crisis is handled. This will allow African policymakers to take stock of any lessons from Europe, which can help them decide whether move toward or away from the EAC shilling. Even before the Eurozone crisis, experts urged the EAC to move slowly regarding the monetary union and to be wary of inflation caused by volatile oil prices. With discovery of oil in Uganda, the threat of price volatility is certainly more eminent.

The second takeaway from the euro-area crisis is that fiscal and monetary policies are not enough to ensure sustainability against the lack of full-blown coordination of economic policies. Euro-area countries pursued different structural policies and as a result competitiveness differentials widened throughout the decade, leading to substantial imbalances within the euro area.

For instance, Germany has been able to accumulate substantial current account surpluses while the peripheral economies in Europe were doing just the opposite and running current account deficits that resulted in higher debt. Had these imbalances been corrected earlier, the crisis would have been much less severe or may not have occurred at all.

Even following the recent European Summit, there still seems to be no hint of coordination of macroeconomic policies. Instead, all European countries will retrench their budgets, which will set the pace for a deflationary adjustment by uniformly compressing aggregate demand throughout the euro-area.

Similarly, the EAC countries are pursuing differing structural policies even as they negotiate the deal for a currency union. While the EAC agreed upon the criteria for macroeconomic convergence, issues of fiscal sustainability have not been met by member countries. For example, the budget deficit level criterion is set not to exceed 5 percent of GDP. Yet, according to the August 2011 EAC Strategy Report, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda all have deficits exceeding the recommended target. The upper inflation limit was also set at 5 percent, but the same five countries are grappling with high levels of inflation above 10 percent, coupled with high currency volatility. Reserve criterion and management have yet to even be decided upon.

The rationale of choosing these criteria is that they are seen as attainable goals for members- high enough to encourage spending for development, but low enough to be sustainable in the long-term. Unless, the EAC wants to recreate the mistakes of Europe it should pay strict attention to the fiscal benchmarks and other macroeconomic convergence criterion requirements.

Finally, the euro-area crisis highlights the importance of an independent central bank for the region that will guide monetary policy formulation and implementation. In addition, the central bank must enforce prudential financial regulations for the financial sector of member countries.

The East Africa Central Bank is planned to be formed along the lines of European Central Bank (ECB). Thus, one must consider the institutional deficiencies of the ECB in order to avoid falling into the same trap that the ECB is currently in. A crucial gap in the euro area is what to do when there is a run on government bonds since the ECB does not have a mandate to intervene. Nor is there a crisis management facility, such as an enhanced European Monetary Fund.

The fiscal crisis has spilled over to the banking sector, for which there is no central supervision or a central or federal deposit insurance mechanism. In sum, the current treaty for the East African Community, unlike the one for the current EU euro area, needs to spell out safety measures and a bailout plan in case of debt or other fiscal problems among members.

The formation of the monetary union is a challenge given the great imbalance in individual national economic strengths of the EAC countries. They must be prepared to give up a degree of sovereignty and to converge politically to avoid collapse. The ideal integration situation is where the countries in the union share common monetary and fiscal policies, a common pool of foreign exchange reserves, and a common monetary authority or central bank. Otherwise, trying to operate a single currency without social, economic and political integration is likely to fail as evidenced by eurozone crisis.

For the time being, the EAC is better off slowing down the integration process. The 2012 monetary union launch is only feasible if all of the macroeconomic convergence criteria are met and harmonization of all fiscal, financial and monetary policies is complete. Instead of rushing to move into a currency union, regional integration in the East African Community should focus more on trade expansion and infrastructure coordination. Whatever the EAC countries decide, the process of forming a single monetary union should be carefully considered given the ongoing turmoil in Europe and the EU's failure to resolve the problem."

Source: The Eurozone Crisis and Lessons for the Formation of an East African Monetary Union | Brookings Institution