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Quickly let me also attempt to contribute although I don't know anything about macroeconomics... mine is just layman's....
Yes indeed jobs from specific sectors will be lost (but will later be regained through increased trade)... but not to Naivasha but rather to Nairobi Inland Container Depot ICD ... The Naivasha ICD is not a threat to Mombasa, Infact the Kisumu port at lake victoria and its subsequent ICD will be bigger than the Naivasha one.... I thiink the main reason they chose to build a dry port at Naivasha is because of the planned Industrial park so that goods from the park can have a holding area and also be loaded or raw material from other parts or imported can be offloaded. The reason for an industrial park in Naivasha is availability of fresh water (especially for food processing plants), unlimited cheap Geothermal (remember if you are lucky enough to live next to a geothermal plant, you will never experience a blackout), the power is unlimited meaning you could melt iron all day and not even feel a pinch on power bill... Plus it doesnt hurt if the industrial park is far from the port... this means atleast, Atrain carrying goods directly to kisumu port destined for Kisumu and its evirons plus Uganda and rwanda, will not return empty to Mombasa, it will pick up manufactured goods in Naivasha and supply them to nairobi and the rest to mombasa and other goods ready for export to the port of Mombasa...
And thus, the jobs that Naivasha might have stolen will be returned back... As mombasa will need to handle the export processing...
lets not forget that Nairobi and Eldoret already have an ICD as we speak
Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority: Inland Container Depots The Nairobi ICD will increase its capacity from 180,000 TEU pa to 400,000(If I rem correctly), The Naivasha one will be much smaller, While for Kisumu it will be bigger because it will also handle for EA cargo.. Remeber after the new terminal in Mombasa was completed, Mombasa can now handle 1.75Million TEU pa so those ICD got nothing on Mombasa , they plan to add another terminal to increase the capacity of Mombasa to 2.5Million TEU pa!!!!
KENYA’S INLAND CONTAINER DEPOT IN NAIROBI NEARING COMPLETION | Knowledge Bylanes Kenya
So while some jobs will move to Nairobi and Naivasha and Kisumu..... This will decongest the port of Mombasa.... The decongestion will mean the port of Mombasa will be relived thus making it faster and more efficient at clearing cargo from the port... This means more ships will be processed at any given time ....thus more workerd will be needed leading to a larger throughput making the port more competitive...in the end, more cargo will be offloaded at the port thus giving back the jobs....(Jobs stolen from other regional ports and also as a result of increased trade)
anyway, Japan is building a special economic zone in "Udongo mwekundu" costing 30 billion (and they said the 30 billion is just for basic infrastructure meaning the actual investment by private companies could excess over billion in dollars) So Mombasa will still be the main transport hub in the cargo business
KPA ICDs explanation
ICD Nairobi