Freesoule
JF-Expert Member
- Jun 18, 2013
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- 272
By Pius Muteekani KatunziFormer Prime Minister John Patrick Amama Mbabazi has finally done what he ought to have done a long time ago. He has declared he will run for presidency outside the National Resistance Movement (NRM).
Mbabazi said although he had not quit the party, he would not be its flag bearer because the regulations governing the primary nominations of candidates were flawed, irregular and unfair. He says his own party, together with the state, has influenced the police and the Electoral Commission to frustrate his efforts to market his candidature under NRM.
Last month, Mbabazi was blocked at Njeru town from proceeding to Mbale where he was slated to hold a consultative meeting with his potential voters. He was detained at Kira road police and later released without any charges.
Even before Mbabazi attempted the Mbale meeting, he should have known that the NRM, led by President Museveni, would not allow him to compete with the latter. He should know that NRM without Museveni is no political party at all.
I can't understand what Mbabazi intended to achieve by insisting on being a presidential aspirant under NRM. True, the Kyankwanzi resolution could not bind NRM members to stick by Museveni's sole candidature; but did Mbabazi expect to muzzle Museveni's barking dogs? Unlikely.
Or did he expect Museveni to give up his ambition for him. Did he expect that given his not so rosy relationship with some of the historical members of NRM and the National Executive Committee (NEC), he would surely campaign with Museveni and trounce him!
There was also an incident in Namboole in the aftermath of the Kyankwanzi resolution, where the party constitution was tweaked to give powers of appointment of top executives of the party to the chairman, who happens to be President Museveni. This amendment was never debated and it was obvious Mbabazi was the target.
Probably there is something Mbabazi knows that some of us don't. But there is a gem that the opposition and those interested in dislodging Museveni are ignoring.
The moment Mbabazi declared his interest to contest for the top seat, Museveni and his lackeys came out guns blazing. Museveni said Mbabazi had a lot to explain to Ugandans as he had been part of the three-decade government. To me, this was a writing on the wall - that Mbabazi is a force to reckon with.
Indeed, thereafter, police chief Gen Kale Kayihura swung into action, asking for the legal opinion of the attorney general whether Mbabazi could hold consultative meetings without the approval of the NRM organs!
Therefore, if the opposition want to capture power from Museveni, they should jettison their personal egos and work with a person who appears to send tremors in what seems to be a strong camp. If it requires working with former foes, so be it, the end justifies the means. The Kenyans have done it and it has worked miracles.
Tanzanians seem to be emulating the Kenyan model. Something similar to what has happened to Mbabazi's NRM has occurred to Tanzania's ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
Former prime minister and kingmaker of sorts, Edward Lowassa, was among those vying for CCM flag bearer. He lost to the minister of works, Dr Pombe Magufuli.
This annoyed Lowassa and he crossed to the Chadema (Chama Cha Demokorasia na Maendeleo), a party that has been in opposition since Tanzania opened doors to multiparty politics. In the 2010 general elections, Chadema came second to CCM with 40 per cent.
Dr Willbrod Peter Slaa had been agreed on to lead the opposition; but when Lowassa offered himself to the party, which once characterized him as corrupt, Dr Slaa agreed to give way.
Apparently, the prayer of the opposition coalition was for Lowassa to be defeated in CCM. Why? In May this year, they debated a report from a research by an independent organisation analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of all the likely presidential candidates under different parties.
The report showed that if CCM chose Lowassa and the opposition Dr Slaa, the former would win with 58% against 42% of the latter in the general election slated for October 25, 2015.
And that if CCM used another candidate other than Lowassa against Dr Slaa, the former would win with 54% against 46% of the opposition. It also showed that although Chadema may lose six per cent of the vote from old party members, there would be 24% new voters brought on board by Lowassa's entry.
So, the opposition is backing on the popularity rating of Lowassa and may succeed in creating factions in CCM, and eventually capturing state power from the ruling party.
Mbabazi, Besigye, Muntu, and other opposition leaders may have to hire an independent organization to do a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of every likely candidate in this presidential race.
If their goal is to capture state power, they may need to abandon their egos and chose a candidate that will deliver that goal.
The author is the finance director of The Observer Media Limited.
Source: allAfrica.com: Uganda: Mbabazi Should Have Coffee With Tanzania's Lowassa
Mbabazi said although he had not quit the party, he would not be its flag bearer because the regulations governing the primary nominations of candidates were flawed, irregular and unfair. He says his own party, together with the state, has influenced the police and the Electoral Commission to frustrate his efforts to market his candidature under NRM.
Last month, Mbabazi was blocked at Njeru town from proceeding to Mbale where he was slated to hold a consultative meeting with his potential voters. He was detained at Kira road police and later released without any charges.
Even before Mbabazi attempted the Mbale meeting, he should have known that the NRM, led by President Museveni, would not allow him to compete with the latter. He should know that NRM without Museveni is no political party at all.
I can't understand what Mbabazi intended to achieve by insisting on being a presidential aspirant under NRM. True, the Kyankwanzi resolution could not bind NRM members to stick by Museveni's sole candidature; but did Mbabazi expect to muzzle Museveni's barking dogs? Unlikely.
Or did he expect Museveni to give up his ambition for him. Did he expect that given his not so rosy relationship with some of the historical members of NRM and the National Executive Committee (NEC), he would surely campaign with Museveni and trounce him!
There was also an incident in Namboole in the aftermath of the Kyankwanzi resolution, where the party constitution was tweaked to give powers of appointment of top executives of the party to the chairman, who happens to be President Museveni. This amendment was never debated and it was obvious Mbabazi was the target.
Probably there is something Mbabazi knows that some of us don't. But there is a gem that the opposition and those interested in dislodging Museveni are ignoring.
The moment Mbabazi declared his interest to contest for the top seat, Museveni and his lackeys came out guns blazing. Museveni said Mbabazi had a lot to explain to Ugandans as he had been part of the three-decade government. To me, this was a writing on the wall - that Mbabazi is a force to reckon with.
Indeed, thereafter, police chief Gen Kale Kayihura swung into action, asking for the legal opinion of the attorney general whether Mbabazi could hold consultative meetings without the approval of the NRM organs!
Therefore, if the opposition want to capture power from Museveni, they should jettison their personal egos and work with a person who appears to send tremors in what seems to be a strong camp. If it requires working with former foes, so be it, the end justifies the means. The Kenyans have done it and it has worked miracles.
Tanzanians seem to be emulating the Kenyan model. Something similar to what has happened to Mbabazi's NRM has occurred to Tanzania's ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
Former prime minister and kingmaker of sorts, Edward Lowassa, was among those vying for CCM flag bearer. He lost to the minister of works, Dr Pombe Magufuli.
This annoyed Lowassa and he crossed to the Chadema (Chama Cha Demokorasia na Maendeleo), a party that has been in opposition since Tanzania opened doors to multiparty politics. In the 2010 general elections, Chadema came second to CCM with 40 per cent.
Dr Willbrod Peter Slaa had been agreed on to lead the opposition; but when Lowassa offered himself to the party, which once characterized him as corrupt, Dr Slaa agreed to give way.
Apparently, the prayer of the opposition coalition was for Lowassa to be defeated in CCM. Why? In May this year, they debated a report from a research by an independent organisation analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of all the likely presidential candidates under different parties.
The report showed that if CCM chose Lowassa and the opposition Dr Slaa, the former would win with 58% against 42% of the latter in the general election slated for October 25, 2015.
And that if CCM used another candidate other than Lowassa against Dr Slaa, the former would win with 54% against 46% of the opposition. It also showed that although Chadema may lose six per cent of the vote from old party members, there would be 24% new voters brought on board by Lowassa's entry.
So, the opposition is backing on the popularity rating of Lowassa and may succeed in creating factions in CCM, and eventually capturing state power from the ruling party.
Mbabazi, Besigye, Muntu, and other opposition leaders may have to hire an independent organization to do a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of every likely candidate in this presidential race.
If their goal is to capture state power, they may need to abandon their egos and chose a candidate that will deliver that goal.
The author is the finance director of The Observer Media Limited.
Source: allAfrica.com: Uganda: Mbabazi Should Have Coffee With Tanzania's Lowassa