Hivi waafrika tunamatatizo gani ya kushindwa ku-analyse vitu kiurahisi with just a carefull eye and internet search?
Hivi Uganda kungekuwa na mafuta kuzidi Saudi Arabia, unafikiria makampuni kama Chevron, Shell, BP etc yangekuwa yanaangalia? Kampuni zilizongudua mafuta ni 'choka mbaya', hazina hata funds za ku-develop hizo 400 million barrels.
let us put this into perspective. LOOK AT THE NUMBERS CAREFULLY!!
Wanasema wana atleast 400 million barrels (which I aint doubting), wanasema wanaweza kutoa 1 point something million barrels per day. It will take less than 400 days for the oil to run out. LOL. Ofcourse stuff dont work that way, but thats a quote from the author of the article.
Saudi Arabia = above 260 Billion barrels (proven reserves), that is 260 thousand, million barrels (i.e. 260,000 Million barrels, Uganda has only several hudred million barrels).
Nigeria = 36 Billion barrels, that is 36 thousand, million barrels (uganda ina kidunchu) i.e 36,000 vs 400
Gabon = 3.2 Billion barrels.......(where apparently since the first barrels was produced, marehemu president alikuwa anapata cut ya $1 kwa kila barrel itokayo ardhi ya Gabon. I think since the 60s.....daaamn, how greedy can you get?).
Naomba mtu afanye conversion ya proven gas reserves za Tanzania, halafu abadilishe to barrels equivalent (ofcourse price ya gas na oil ni tofauti, just food for thought!).
Also, Kenya wana pipeline tayari from Kisumu to Nairobi then Mombasa. Nadhani kuna-pipeline nyingine karibu na border ya Uganda. So it makes business sense to work along those lines.
Pia, Kenya nadhani wana refinery. With 400million barrels huwezi kuwekeza kwenye refinery mpya. Refinery zinachukua decades ku-recover investments. Mfano, jaribu kuangalia lini refinery mpya imetengenezwa marekani? wakati bado wanapump mafuta from gulf of mexico. On that note, Tanzania wajitahidi washughulikie refinery yao Dar, that is a goldmine right there. Am suprised Mkapa didnt get a piece of that (lol, you know am playin!)
I could go on and on, I just want you guys to be carefull with numbers!!
Finally, ugomvi wa Zanzibar na serikali ya Tanzania kuhusu mafuta unasikitisha. Kwa data nilizopata, inaonekana kweli 'hakuna mafuta'...by this it means, yapo kiduchu labda kwa level za Uganda (labda a couple of billion barrels if we lucky). I pray am proven wrong, but looking at the dynamics of exploration and who is doing what and where, then I believe there is zilch in East Africa.
Kuna kampuni moja kubwa wana acrerage kubwa huko maeneo ya zenji. Walitaka kuuzia kampuni jingine kubwa acreage yao miaka iliyopita (wont say the year). Lile kampuni lingine likashitukia. Ni kwamba, bahari iliyo- east africa, haina 'cap-rock', yaani miamba inayozuia mafuta yasitoroke. Ofcourse zipo cap rocks, ila haziko continuous kuweza kutunza mafuta kwa wingi (hili tatizo Uganda pia, ndio maana kuna kampuni wamechimba hewa, ofcourse kuchimba hewa inawezekana katika field yoyote). Kama kuna geologist anayejua structure ya east africa, ata-confirm au kubomoa hoja hii. Ila naamini nilipopata data na ninasimama na hii analysis.
Data nyingine niliyopata, from a different persepective ni kwamba, east africa hakuna 'source rock', lakini hii hoja sikubaliani nayo kwasababu kusingekuwa na oil leaks wala gas inayopatikana. Nadhani hoja ya cap rock stands. having said that, hii group walianalyse sana data za east africa. Ila nadhani huyu mtu alichanganya tu kunielezea vizuri.