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Read hapo kwa US involvement hapo kwa hii CNN Q&A
Kenyan soldiers climb into a truck as they
prepare to advance near Liboi in Somalia, on
October 18, 2011, near Kenya's border town
with Somalia. Kenyan jets struck in Somalia on
October 18 in a bid to rid the border area of
Islamist rebels blamed for a spate of
abductions, including that of a French woman
who died in captivity, officials said. (Getty
Images)
Editors Note: Critical Questions is produced
by the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS). Richard Downie is a fellow and
deputy director of the Africa Program at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington, D.C. The views expressed in
this piece are solely those of Richard Downie.
Kenya is in the third week of a major military
offensive inside neighboring Somalia. Called
Operation Protect the Nation, it is Kenyas
largest military operation since independence
in 1963. Around 1,600 troops are sweeping
through areas of Southern Somalia controlled
by the extremist Islamist group, al Shabaab.
The Kenyan air force has also been in action,
launching bombing raids on insurgent bases.
Kenyas military spokesman has even used his
twitter account to warn residents living near al
Shabaab camps in 10 towns to take shelter
against imminent attacks.
Q: Why did Kenya invade?
Richard Downie: Kenyans have gotten
increasingly alarmed about Somalias chronic
instability, which has spilled over its borders.
One manifestation of this instability is Dadaab
refugee camp in northeastern Kenya, which
receives Somalis fleeing the humanitarian
crisis in their own country. Numbers at this
camp have swelled to almost 450,000 because
of the famine conditions in parts of Southern
Somalia.
The Kenyan authorities were dismayed in
October when two Spanish aid workers were
kidnapped from the camp and taken into
Somalia, prompting relief operations to be
scaled back. But probably the final straw was
the series of raids on coastal resorts by
Somali criminals that preceded the attack in
Dadaab. First, a British man was shot dead
and his wife snatched from a beach resort
close to the Somali border. Second, a disabled
pensioner from France was seized near Lamu
and taken to Somalia, where she subsequently
died. Her kidnappers have demanded a
ransom for her body.
Read: Restart of U.S.-DPRK negotiations.
Tourism is critical to Kenyas economy, and
the country is entering peak holiday season.
We dont actually know if al Shabaab was
responsible for these kidnappings. Indeed, the
Kenyans claim they were planning a military
incursion long before they happened. But its
clear that they helped focus Kenyan minds on
the seriousness of the Somali problem and
underlined the need to take action.
What is the military objective?
In essence, Kenya wants to keep al Shabaab at
arms length from its border. It has already
experimented with the idea of carving out a
buffer zone inside Somalia. Earlier this year, it
backed the formation of an autonomous
region called Jubaland, or Azania, providing
money and supplies to a hastily cobbled-
together local governing authority under the
leadership of a former Somali defense
minister. This initiative never really got off the
ground so this time round Kenya is taking the
lead role rather than relying so heavily on
local partners.
What is the extent of U.S. involvement in this
operation?
Kenyas status as a long-standing security
partner of the United States has given rise to
speculation that the United States is
participating in this operation. Certainly, both
countries have a shared interest in defeating
al Shabaab, which is a designated terrorist
group in the United States. But U.S. officials
are adamant that the decision to take military
action was Kenyas and Kenyas alone. They
say they were not even briefed beforehand
about Nairobis intention to take action. They
have, however, expressed strong support for
the operation. Kenya has been coy about
naming the international partners who are
assisting with its military offensive. It is
unlikely to be coincidental that a U.S. air base
in Ethiopia recently became operational. The
base is used as a launch pad for unmanned
drones that conduct counterterrorism
surveillance across the Horn of Africa. The
Pentagon says the Reaper drones are
unarmed, but they are capable of being
deployed for offensive operations. Missiles
from U.S. drones have previously been used to
kill suspected al Qaeda leaders in Somalia.
What are the military risks for Kenya?
Kenya has swept into Somalia on a wave of
public support, and all the talk so far is of big
military gains. But Kenya should not be
fooled: this is a risky operation, and the risks
will get bigger the longer the operation lasts.
Kenya has not clearly defined its military
objectives; instead, it has issued vague
pronouncements to rid Somalia of extremists,
which raise fears of a long and messy
engagement. The history of outside military
intervention in Somalia should also give the
Kenyans pause for thought. Somalis do not
tend to agree on much, but one thing that is
guaranteed to unite them is opposition to
external interference. We saw this in 2006,
when Ethiopia invaded Somalia to oust the
Islamic Courts Union, a governing authority
that achieved considerable success in bringing
a semblance of order to Mogadishu but whose
anti-Ethiopian rhetoric caused alarm in Addis
Ababa.
Read: Analysis of the Lords Resistance Army.
The invasion turned into a brutal occupation,
triggering an insurgency that has lasted to
this day. The Ethiopians withdrew two years
later. Kenya is not viewed with quite the same
level of hostility as Ethiopia, which is
Somalias traditional adversary. But it will
have to tread carefully nonetheless. Civilian
casualties are likely to intensify Somali
hostility to Kenya. There have already been
reports from an international medical
organization that five civilians in a camp for
internally displaced people were killed in an
air strike on the town of Jibil. Mistakes like
this will inflame local opinion.
Kenya also has a domestic community of
approximately 2.4 million Kenyan Somalis to
consider, mainly in Nairobi and on the coast.
Concerns have been raised of a potential fifth
column inside Kenya. Al Shabaab has played
on those fears, promising terrorist attacks
inside Kenya. There have already been three
grenade attacks in the past 10 days. A man
arrested in connection with two of the attacks
admitted in court to being an al Shabaab
sympathizer.
Another problem for Kenya is that its proxies
in Southern Somalia are not reliable. Some of
them were fighting with al Shabaab until fairly
recently, before switching sides. There is also
a danger of antagonizing its ally and neighbor,
Ethiopia, which has been backing its own
proxies inside Southern Somalia. The ethnic
groups most likely to benefit from Kenyas
operation in Southern Somalia are from the
Ogadeni clan, whose kin inside Ethiopia have
long resisted the government in Addis Ababa.