Rutashubanyuma
JF-Expert Member
- Sep 24, 2010
- 219,468
- 911,184
Tom Wolf of IpsosSynovate releases survey results in Nairobi, on Friday. [PHOTO: JONAH ONYANGO/STANDARD]
Among the few Kenyan commentators to have castigated major Pollsters for getting their presidential forecasts wrong was no other but Mr. Mutahi Ngunyi. Mr. Ngunyi made it abundantly clear that there was no way Raila Amollo Odinga will win the then forthcoming elections let alone lead the presidential race because on the day IEBC closed the registration of voters it was the day Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta clinched the presidency.
Mr. Ngunyi took pains to decipher the strength of registered voters in Jubilee strongholds in comparison to feeble registration in CORD's perceived areas of strength, and concluded the Jubilee had a momentum and CORD was bound to lose on the first round.
Apart from presidential race outcome, Jubilee is ahead on all frontiers from Gubernatorial countdown, Senatorial races, parliamentarian numbers to even County Councillors! The question now begging an answer why did most pollsters with an exception of little known Octopus got it predictably wrong?
The answer to that maybe closer home than most political pundits are willing to admit. Where Infotrack Pollster has visible connections to Raila and regarded by most analysts as the most biased because of conspicuous "conflict of interests" but SYNOVATE's errors remain confounding and may take time to fully understand how did it got it all wrong?
Yesterday SYNOVATE painstakingly blamed huge voter turnout in Jubilee strongholds and poor showing of Raila's fanbase [For more information read.........Raila supporters didn't turn up to vote, survey says ]as a sterling reason to exculpate herself from such colossal errors of judgment. But even there, SYNOVATE is not and should be out of the woods yet. Voter turnout was empirically tied to voter registration something their weighted "averaging" did not take into considerations! Many a pundit had cautioned the general public to take opinion polls with a pinch of salt and that should have alerted SYNOVATE something was amiss but for reasons which remain mysterious such reckless disregard of whistle-blowing was hushed!
The ironies of SYNOVATE are many and their defensive narratives got them even to bigger mess. SYNOVATE boast of healthy forecasts for the rest of presidential candidates and that her predictions had stood the test of time but it had to be where it mattered most -Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta's triumph-that she got it all predictably wrong!
In 2010, SYNOVATE was very partisan in our own election and many believes NEC and SYNOVATE were operating in-synch in a deceitful determination to mislead the general public that actually CCM and JK were still popular to the tunes of 61% something which was only in their fertile imaginations...................because of venal practices of SYNOVATE in TZ, I am cheerfully tempted to insinuate that similar malpractice may have been exercised by SYNOVATE in Kenya to lure voters and vote for the CORD despite heading to a predictable presidential loss.
While were are still waiting for Raila tilted Infotrack to come out and tell their tales of lies but I must say their reluctance to admit upon their lack of professionalism has made it worse for them and few from now on will regard them with the professional respect next time they open up their smelly mouths and tell us what we already know.
Both Infotrack and SYNOVATE were paid by the Royal Media that is owning CITIZEN TV. From the word go, the sole owner of Royal Media Mzee Macharia- though a Kikuyu- had declared support for Raila! Raila appointed Macharia in his presidential campaign team and little wonder both Infotrack and SYNOVATE danced to the tunes of CORD for the purposes and intents of placating their employer Macharia who was paying the piper.......
The other loose end which I will tie up some other time and space ought to be why did Macharia bandied himself with a perennial presidential loser in Raila? Again business interests and not loyalty to Kikuyu ethnicity tipped the scales here. Again as I have hinted earlier this is subject for another time and another space......................keep watching and be very alert!
