Why Magufuli administration misses the point on Government splurge

Parsing through the last three elections results, all not well for CCM in the presidential race

Between 2005-2015 CCM has shown resilience in holding parliamentary majority but presidential votes have been going down in every election

With the economic bite deepening our woes expect a fallout of tantamount proportions in the 2020 elections

From 2005 to 2015 CCM presidential votes share dropped from 82% to 56%.

This is 26% drop in presidential vote count

Between 2005-2010, presidential votes drop was from 82% to 61% a whacking 21% capitulation

Assuming a linear extrapolation, we expect CCM to drop another 21% from the 56% presidential vote garnered in 2015

If this happens CCM will end up with 35% of total presidential vote basically ceding power in the process

The truth needs no further emphasis a poor presidential performance in s ballot box hurts parliamentary votes as well

Majority of CCM MPs will have three options

One, the beleaguered MPs can cling with the CCM status wuo and be humiliated at ballot box as a result of backstopping a very unpopular president or consider option two

Challenge the paranoiac president to a leadership challenge

This option is rife with booby traps and treachery terrain

The president doubles as the party boss and any threats to his ironclad hold onto power will be confronted with losses of party memberships and worse other criminal persecutions

We know most MPs are not that clean

From tax dodging to shoddy business deals the power that be may pursue them to total annihilation

Few MPs will aim to destroy own political fortunes and will find either option one or three more palatable

Option three is tantalising but not devoid of political risks, as well!

At the hour of need to stick together and wave the UKAWA terrorising storms some MPs may jettison CCM titanic sinking ship

Shifting to UKAWA which is energized by the sputtering economy may save a couple of political careers or may kick start civil service ones once UKAWA government is in the offing