Why Magufuli administration misses the point on Government splurge

[Rutashubanyuma]

Parsing through the last three elections results, all not well for CCM in the presidential race

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Between 2005-2015 CCM has shown resilience in holding parliamentary majority but presidential votes have been going down in every election

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

With the economic bite deepening our woes expect a fallout of tantamount proportions in the 2020 elections

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

From 2005 to 2015 CCM presidential votes share dropped from 82% to 56%.

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

This is 26% drop in presidential vote count

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Between 2005-2010, presidential votes drop was from 82% to 61% a whacking 21% capitulation

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Assuming a linear extrapolation, we expect CCM to drop another 21% from the 56% presidential vote garnered in 2015

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

If this happens CCM will end up with 35% of total presidential vote basically ceding power in the process

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

The truth needs no further emphasis a poor presidential performance in s ballot box hurts parliamentary votes as well

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Majority of CCM MPs will have three options

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

One, the beleaguered MPs can cling with the CCM status wuo and be humiliated at ballot box as a result of backstopping a very unpopular president or consider option two

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Challenge the paranoiac president to a leadership challenge

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

This option is rife with booby traps and treachery terrain

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

The president doubles as the party boss and any threats to his ironclad hold onto power will be confronted with losses of party memberships and worse other criminal persecutions

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

We know most MPs are not that clean

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

From tax dodging to shoddy business deals the power that be may pursue them to total annihilation

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Few MPs will aim to destroy own political fortunes and will find either option one or three more palatable

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Option three is tantalising but not devoid of political risks, as well!

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

At the hour of need to stick together and wave the UKAWA terrorising storms some MPs may jettison CCM titanic sinking ship

 

[Rutashubanyuma]

Shifting to UKAWA which is energized by the sputtering economy may save a couple of political careers or may kick start civil service ones once UKAWA government is in the offing