Why SGR Uganda is still there to be grabbed

[Mkikuyu- Akili timamu]

I decided to be quiet for a while, I am sure My fellow countrymen have clarified it to you,
That's how Tanzanians act,
Just give yourself a time to evaluate every single Serious decision, especially if you are not sure,
What if the amount Tz spent to build BRT and Kigamboni Bridge was invented in Interchanges, how many could have built?
But why did we opt for BRT first? You can Remember the way your politicians act, they want BRT, LRT, Trams and Even Metro at the same time, they don't know what exactly should start, That's a mindset of an aggressive Person, never organised,
Unakumbuka last few months you realised you need BRT and you immediately painted the Highway, you soon realised it won't work, Halafu kama vile mdau hapo alivyoelezea kuwa mmejikuta mnafikiria electrification of your SGR before you sooner realised it won't work,
Kenyans you need to calm yourselves down or you will always be subject to such reckless decisions.
Again, I may ask you, who is going to be served by your Multibillion Lamu Port, Funded by Chinese Loan???
Ethiopia?? Not even sure right?
Tulizeni Akili.

umeongea sense sana. Shida ya kenya ni kukosa ku "reflect". Nakumbuka mwaka wa 2010 David Ndii alisema hamna haja ya kujenga Super Highway,BRT ijengwe na kuwe na mabasi ya umma.
Alipingwa na kuambiwa kwamba yeye hataki maendeleo..Sasa hivi miaka 7 imepita na Thika super highway ni Mifoleni tuu na ajali kila siku

 

[thisdayes]

umeongea sense sana. Shida ya kenya ni kukosa ku "reflect". Nakumbuka mwaka wa 2010 David Ndii alisema hamna haja ya kujenga Super Highway,BRT ijengwe na kuwe na mabasi ya umma.
Alipingwa na kuambiwa kwamba yeye hataki maendeleo..Sasa hivi miaka 7 imepita na Thika super highway ni Mifoleni tuu na ajali kila siku

David Ndii is a true scholar and respected worldwide why doesnt Kenya use him! He sees things in a very different perspective and he is almost certain of the end result of many economical moves made by GOK. He could have saved GOK a lot of trouble only if they took him seriously.

 

[thisdayes]

I decided to be quiet for a while, I am sure My fellow countrymen clarified it to you,
That's how Tanzanians act,
Just give yourself a time to evaluate every single Serious decision, especially if you are not sure,
What if the amount Tz spent to build BRT and Kigamboni Bridge was invested in Interchanges, how many could have built?
But why did we opt for BRT first? You can Remember the way your politicians act, they want BRT, LRT, Trams and Even Metro at the same time, they don't know what exactly should start, That's a mindset of an aggressive Person, never organised,
Unakumbuka last few months you realised you need BRT and you immediately painted the Highway, you soon realised it won't work, Halafu kama vile mdau hapo alivyoelezea kuwa mmejikuta mnafikiria electrification of your SGR before you sooner realised it won't work,
Kenyans you need to calm yourselves down or you will always be subject to such reckless decisions.
Again, I may ask you, who is going to be served by your Multibillion Lamu Port, Funded by Chinese Loan???
Ethiopia?? Not even sure right?
Tulizeni Akili.

Mkuu ume summerize michango yote uka ongeza na point zako za msingi and you killed it. Hili andiko wakenya mlichukue na msambaziane kwenye watsup group zenu huko Nairobi. [emoji16]

 

[Sherlock]

umeongea sense sana. Shida ya kenya ni kukosa ku "reflect". Nakumbuka mwaka wa 2010 David Ndii alisema hamna haja ya kujenga Super Highway,BRT ijengwe na kuwe na mabasi ya umma.
Alipingwa na kuambiwa kwamba yeye hataki maendeleo..Sasa hivi miaka 7 imepita na Thika super highway ni Mifoleni tuu na ajali kila siku

So according to you brt would have been the solution to the traffic nightmare that we had at Thika road?......what time did you use to spend stuck in traffic then and what tym do you spend now?
Talking of accidents almost all accidents that happen are due to careless driving.Furthermore more Thika road experiences far less accidents as compared to other major highways in Kenya .The problem with Nairobi is rapid urbanization that puts strain on already existing infrastructure and services.

 

[MAKANJAMNA]

So according to you brt would have been the solution to the traffic nightmare that we had at Thika road?......what time did you use to spend stuck in traffic then and what tym do you spend now?
Talking of accidents almost all accidents that happen are due to careless driving.Furthermore more Thika road experiences far less accidents as compared to other major highways in Kenya .The problem with Nairobi is rapid urbanization that puts strain on already existing infrastructure and services.

Dar es Salaam is facing rapid urbanisation too..

But the solution for rapid urbanisation is not to build more highways or interchanges.. at least learn from Los Angeles.. they went through the same thing you're doing now in Nairobi and eventually their highways/freeways are all congested.

Public transport is the way to go.. there is no sustainability if you think you can serve each and every car in the city..

At least learn from us, invest in public transport systems, they move more people hence less pollution, noise and jams.

Nairobi is close to other larger towns that means the pressure is even higher on your roads.

 

[Mkikuyu- Akili timamu]

So according to you brt would have been the solution to the traffic nightmare that we had at Thika road?......what time did you use to spend stuck in traffic then and what tym do you spend now?
Talking of accidents almost all accidents that happen are due to careless driving.Furthermore more Thika road experiences far less accidents as compared to other major highways in Kenya .The problem with Nairobi is rapid urbanization that puts strain on already existing infrastructure and services.

Ofcourse, You dont actually need a superhighway..Well planned cities have BRT/TRAM/Subway whatever...They are so efficient that people prefer them than using personal car..

 

[kirk git]

Ofcourse, You dont actually need a superhighway..Well planned cities have BRT/TRAM/Subway whatever...They are so efficient that people prefer them than using personal car..

How come these Kenyans look very uneducated?

They have no idea about transportation for cities!

 

[Geza Ulole]

How come these Kenyans look very uneducated?

They have no idea about transportation for cities!

Most r Mumbis from Kirinyaga lead by tribal intuition!

 

[Geza Ulole]

So according to you brt would have been the solution to the traffic nightmare that we had at Thika road?......what time did you use to spend stuck in traffic then and what tym do you spend now?
Talking of accidents almost all accidents that happen are due to careless driving.Furthermore more Thika road experiences far less accidents as compared to other major highways in Kenya .The problem with Nairobi is rapid urbanization that puts strain on already existing infrastructure and services.

Where DART passes tremendously improvement has been notices!

 

[Geza Ulole]

I decided to be quiet for a while, I am sure My fellow countrymen clarified it to you,
That's how Tanzanians act,
Just give yourself a time to evaluate every single Serious decision, especially if you are not sure,
What if the amount Tz spent to build BRT and Kigamboni Bridge was invested in Interchanges, how many could have built?
But why did we opt for BRT first? You can Remember the way your politicians act, they want BRT, LRT, Trams and Even Metro at the same time, they don't know what exactly should start, That's a mindset of an aggressive Person, never organised,
Unakumbuka last few months you realised you need BRT and you immediately painted the Highway, you soon realised it won't work, Halafu kama vile mdau hapo alivyoelezea kuwa mmejikuta mnafikiria electrification of your SGR before you sooner realised it won't work,
Kenyans you need to calm yourselves down or you will always be subject to such reckless decisions.
Again, I may ask you, who is going to be served by your Multibillion Lamu Port, Funded by Chinese Loan???
Ethiopia?? Not even sure right?
Tulizeni Akili.

As far as I know LAPSSET has already reverted to LAPSST following Ethiopia n Eritrea handshake n will soon to be LAPT the way Sudan is courting South Sudan with peace deal n now a resumption of oil exports via Port Sudan. Plse Kenyans act smarter instead of being blind aggressive!

 

[Lwiva]

So according to you brt would have been the solution to the traffic nightmare that we had at Thika road?......what time did you use to spend stuck in traffic then and what tym do you spend now?
Talking of accidents almost all accidents that happen are due to careless driving.Furthermore more Thika road experiences far less accidents as compared to other major highways in Kenya .The problem with Nairobi is rapid urbanization that puts strain on already existing infrastructure and services.

Brt inaamasisha watu kutotumia magari yao binafsi hivyo inapunguza idadi ya magari Kwa asilimia 70% hapa dar magari kabla ya brt yaliyokuwa mjini ni mengi kuliko sasa hivi

 

[Lwiva]

How come these Kenyans look very uneducated?

They have no idea about transportation for cities!

Inasikitisha sana zamani jamaa walitufunza kwenye mashule yao ila sasa wamekuwa mambumbumbu very uneducated!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[eliakeem]

Ahaaa haaa haaa
these guys (Kenyans) are always confusing these two terms, i.e. greedy and aggressive. for them being greedy consider it as being aggressive.

 

[ndughuri msuya]

Tatizo wakenya wanaharaka ya kutawala kiuchumi nchi zote za EAC mpaka DRC ndio maana wanapigwa kila upande,cc tunakuja taratibu wao wanasema tunaimba wimbo wa tutajenga tutafanya, leo wao wanaimba tumekwisha ,tusimamishe miradi (TUME,TUSI)😉😉😉

 

[Muria]

Unfortunately, Africa is no longer bankable (Mozambique, Angola, Zambia, SA, Nigeria, Ghana are juggling debt like a juggler at a fair). Now that the Chinese are taking a hard look at projects that they are financing, I doubt that the Kenyan SGR will go anywhere past Nakuru. The saying, 'He who pays the piper calls the tune' is hitting Kenyans fast. I doubt if Uganda will connect to the SGR SGR anytime soon seeing as they are also beginning to buckle under the weight of foreign debt repayments, the number one sign for ineligibility for loans. For any sane Kenyan, this should be seen as a chance at redemption given the SGR's high cost.

The same could be said of the Tanzanian SGR. That the GOT has so far only allocated such a small amount of the entire project cost is highly indicative. In the next couple of years, African borrowing costs are going to go through the roof + finding willing & eligible loaners to African governments will be an uphill task given the unfolding market realities. Expect the TZ SGR to also either be terminated before the Rwandese border or be redesigned to remove the electrification element. Interesting times ahead. The good thing is that the Tanzanian SGR is still at its infancy so redesign, cancellation won't be as costly.

PS: The decade-long "Chinese cheap loans party" is finally coming to an end. The market is speaking, who is listening??

 

[Bantugbro]

Unfortunately, Africa is no longer bankable (Mozambique, Angola, Zambia, SA, Nigeria, Ghana are juggling debt like a juggler at a fair). Now that the Chinese are taking a hard look at projects that they are financing, I doubt that the Kenyan SGR will go anywhere past Nakuru. The saying, 'He who pays the piper calls the tune' is hitting Kenyans fast. I doubt if Uganda will connect to the SGR SGR anytime soon seeing as they are also beginning to buckle under the weight of foreign debt repayments, the number one sign for ineligibility for loans. For any sane Kenyan, this should be seen as a chance at redemption given the SGR's high cost.

The same could be said of the Tanzanian SGR. That the GOT has so far only allocated such a small amount of the entire project cost is highly indicative. In the next couple of years, African borrowing costs are going to go through the roof + finding willing & eligible loaners to African governments will be an uphill task given the unfolding market realities. Expect the TZ SGR to also either be terminated before the Rwandese border or be redesigned to remove the electrification element. Interesting times ahead. The good thing is that the Tanzanian SGR is still at its infancy so redesign, cancellation won't be as costly.

PS: The decade-long "Chinese cheap loans party" is finally coming to an end. The market is speaking, who is listening??

Good analysis, except for the electrification component, I think you are forgetting or simply ignoring the fact that the overall running cost of electric trains is lower to the order of several magnitudes compared to the train using diesel engines.

Just FYI, the entire TZ SGR electric line will only require 160 MW to operate, now consider how much foreign exchange would be required every month for the importation of diesel and other heavy oils just to run the same.

The GoT always allocate the same amount of money to the project at the beginning of the FYs nothing has changed, the contractor is being paid based on the deliverables (upon completion of the agreed milestones).

Lastly, the model employed in the implementation of the TZ SGR is based on the design and build principle, this allows lot of room for making proper decisions based on the situation on the ground at the given time.

 

[Geza Ulole]

Good analysis, except for the electrification component, I think you are forgetting or simply ignoring the fact that the overall running cost of electric trains is lower to the order of several magnitudes compared to the train using diesel engines.

Just FYI, the entire TZ SGR electric line will only require 160 MW to operate, now consider how much foreign exchange would be required every month for the importation of diesel and other heavy oils just to run the same.

The GoT always allocate the same amount of money to the project at the beginning of the FYs nothing has changed, the contractor is being paid based on the deliverables (upon completion of the agreed milestones).

Lastly, the model employed in the implementation of the TZ SGR is based on the design and build principle, this allows lot of room for making proper decisions based on the situation on the ground at the given time.

waache na self denial unajua hawataki kuamini for the past 3 years the GoT has allocated an average of over $500 mln for each budget year! Unajua watu hawajui zile US$1.4 bln from Stanchart and around $200 mln from credit Suisse and $200 mln from TDB Bank are a boost to already over $1.5 bln that the GoT has set aside! As a result third phase is to be soon launched aside an assurance of funds for Isaka-Kigali section.

Wakati mshikaji akiota kuhusu kuacha kujenga reli ya umeme, sisi tumetuma jeshi kujifunza kuendesha bullet trains!

https://www.ippmedia.com/en/news/sgr-hits-momentum-bullet-train-operators-sent-training

 

[Geza Ulole]

Unfortunately, Africa is no longer bankable (Mozambique, Angola, Zambia, SA, Nigeria, Ghana are juggling debt like a juggler at a fair). Now that the Chinese are taking a hard look at projects that they are financing, I doubt that the Kenyan SGR will go anywhere past Nakuru. The saying, 'He who pays the piper calls the tune' is hitting Kenyans fast. I doubt if Uganda will connect to the SGR SGR anytime soon seeing as they are also beginning to buckle under the weight of foreign debt repayments, the number one sign for ineligibility for loans. For any sane Kenyan, this should be seen as a chance at redemption given the SGR's high cost.

The same could be said of the Tanzanian SGR. That the GOT has so far only allocated such a small amount of the entire project cost is highly indicative. In the next couple of years, African borrowing costs are going to go through the roof + finding willing & eligible loaners to African governments will be an uphill task given the unfolding market realities. Expect the TZ SGR to also either be terminated before the Rwandese border or be redesigned to remove the electrification element. Interesting times ahead. The good thing is that the Tanzanian SGR is still at its infancy so redesign, cancellation won't be as costly.

PS: The decade-long "Chinese cheap loans party" is finally coming to an end. The market is speaking, who is listening??

Tanzania's first phase of SGR project gets Sh215bn surety cover

 

[Muria]

waache na self denial unajua hawataki kuamini for the past 3 years the GoT has allocated an average of over $500 mln for each budget year! Unajua watu hawajui zile US$1.4 bln from Stanchart and around $200 mln from credit Suisse and $200 mln from TDB Bank are a boost to already over $1.5 bln that the GoT has set aside! As a result third phase is to be soon launched aside an assurance of funds for Isaka-Kigali section.

Wakati mshikaji akiota kuhusu kuacha kujenga reli ya umeme, sisi tumetuma jeshi kujifunza kuendesha bullet trains!

SGR hits momentum: Bullet train operators sent for training

Though allocation na actual release huwa ni vitu viwili tofauti. Kisha hii $500m figure huwa inanichanganya, ina maana GOT is setting aside about 10% of makusanyo ya TRA kila mwaka towards the SGR? 😳 Naona kama vile significant outlay.

 

[Muria]

Good analysis, except for the electrification component, I think you are forgetting or simply ignoring the fact that the overall running cost of electric trains is lower to the order of several magnitudes compared to the train using diesel engines.

Just FYI, the entire TZ SGR electric line will only require 160 MW to operate, now consider how much foreign exchange would be required every month for the importation of diesel and other heavy oils just to run the same.

The GoT always allocate the same amount of money to the project at the beginning of the FYs nothing has changed, the contractor is being paid based on the deliverables (upon completion of the agreed milestones).

Lastly, the model employed in the implementation of the TZ SGR is based on the design and build principle, this allows lot of room for making proper decisions based on the situation on the ground at the given time.

Valid point re: electrification but I looked at the electrification component purely from a capital outlay position. Yes, it will be much cheaper to run but constructing the overhead lines is quite costly. In case of a plan "B" it will be among the 1st elements to be shedded.

Re: Funding I was also speaking broadly, the SGR is majorly funded by debt (as it stands GOT has so far allocated only about 10% of the cost). As it is now, phase 1 hasn't been fully funded yet (about 75% funded so far i think..), I hope that there is a contingency plan in case funding for the other sections doesn't materialise seeing as the loan market for African economies currently is quite shaky. Planning for such massive projects needs to be A+ to avoid complications ahead. As the Japanese insist, 60% planning, 40% implementation.