Yesha
Senior Member
- Jan 28, 2026
- 183
- 97
Government is targeting a budget deficit of below 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2027, but the financial pressures facing Treasury raise questions about how adequately it will fund public services as the country braces for potentially below-average rainfall.
Finance Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube recently revealed that Government expects to collect approximately ZiG300 billion in revenue next year, against funding requests of about ZiG600 billion submitted by ministries and other stakeholders.
This means the funding requests are roughly twice the revenue Treasury expects to collect, forcing Government to prioritise spending and set limits on ministry allocations.
While Ncube indicated that Treasury could consider increasing allocations to sensitive sectors such as health and education, the funding constraints could have consequences for ordinary citizens if approved budgets are not fully and timeously disbursed.
Healthcare under pressure
The Ministry of Health and Child Care reportedly submitted a 2027 budget bid of ZWG89.27 billion, but Treasury indicated that it could allocate approximately ZWG29.83 billion, representing about a third of the ministry's request.
The figures were disclosed by Health Ministry Secretary Aspect Maunganidze during a parliamentary portfolio committee meeting in October.
The ministry identified primary healthcare, expansion of rural health centres, immunisation, maternal and newborn healthcare, medical records systems and health security among its priorities.
For ordinary Zimbabweans, inadequate funding could mean slower expansion of public health facilities, pressure on already stretched services and difficulties improving access to essential medicines and healthcare, particularly in rural communities.
The implications could become more serious if drought conditions increase household vulnerability, food insecurity and malnutrition, potentially raising demand for public health services.
Children, pregnant women, older people and households unable to afford private healthcare could be particularly exposed.
Education and the cost of keeping children in school
Education is another sector facing competing demands for limited public resources.
Ncube has indicated that Government could consider increasing funding for school construction and recruiting more teachers.
However, the funding challenge raises questions about whether Government will have sufficient resources to expand classroom infrastructure, address teacher shortages and support vulnerable learners.
For families already struggling with school fees, transport, uniforms and learning materials, gaps in public education funding could add to the financial burden.
There are also concerns about programmes intended to support disadvantaged learners, including the Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM).
During a stakeholder dialogue in Bulawayo in October, economist Stevenson Dlamini raised concerns about the difference between allocations approved in the national budget and the actual money released to health and education programmes.
He also highlighted the limited provision for sanitary wear for schoolgirls, estimating that the allocation worked out to approximately ZiG80 per learner annually.
This illustrates why the actual amount reaching beneficiaries matters as much as the headline budget allocation.
El Niño could deepen the pressure on households
The funding debate comes as Zimbabwe faces the threat of an El Niño-influenced 2026/27 rainfall season.
The Meteorological Services Department has forecast a largely erratic start to the rainy season, with below-normal rainfall expected across much of the country.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also warned of significant climate risks, citing forecasts indicating an 88–94% likelihood of El Niño during the 2026/27 season.
FAO estimates that more than six million people could be at risk, alongside approximately 2.2 million cattle.
The Food Security and Nutrition Early Warning Network (FEWS NET) has warned that food insecurity could worsen in several parts of the country, with poor households facing depleted food stocks, reduced incomes and rising staple food prices.
For an ordinary family, this could translate into higher food bills, reduced meals, difficulty paying school-related expenses and increased dependence on social assistance.
The effects could extend beyond agriculture, particularly in communities where livelihoods depend on rain-fed farming, livestock production and seasonal agricultural employment.
The agriculture and social protection connection
Agriculture will be central to how Zimbabwe responds to the anticipated drought.
The Ministry of Agriculture reportedly submitted a 2027 funding request of approximately ZiG254.85 billion, against an indicative allocation of about ZiG21.215 billion, leaving a substantial gap.
Parliament's Lands and Agriculture Committee has proposed increasing the allocation to ZiG33 billion, with priority areas including irrigation, agricultural extension services, mechanisation and farmer support.
If drought preparedness and agricultural support are inadequately funded, the consequences could extend to food availability, household incomes and the cost of basic commodities.
This would potentially increase demand for Government assistance, including food aid, nutrition programmes and other social protection interventions.
It also creates additional pressure on health and education services, as food-insecure households may struggle to afford healthcare and keep children in school.
The question goes beyond the deficit target
The proposed deficit target is part of Government's broader fiscal consolidation strategy, aimed at keeping public spending within the country's revenue-generating capacity.
However, the central question for ordinary Zimbabweans is not only whether Government can maintain the deficit below 3% of GDP, but whether the resources allocated to essential services will reach the people who depend on them.
The United Nations has previously cautioned that persistent under-execution of social spending can translate into delayed medicines and supplies, interrupted social protection payments and reduced access to essential services.
As Parliament considers the 2027 National Budget, the adequacy of funding for healthcare, education, agriculture and social protection will be particularly important in determining how well vulnerable households are protected against the anticipated climate shocks.
The 2027 National Budget is expected to be presented by Ncube on November 19.
For millions of Zimbabweans, its impact will ultimately be measured not only in economic growth figures or the budget deficit, but also in whether medicines are available at local clinics, children can remain in school, food remains affordable and vulnerable families receive assistance when they need it