CCM na Urais 2015: Tujadili Aina Kuu za Wagombea


CCM inaonyesha all characteristics of an endangered species, kwa mfano:

1. Loss of habitat - its habitat being ndani ya mioyo ya watanzania.
2. Climate Change - suffers from an increase of temperature of the country's political atmosphere.
3. Slow to reproduce - visionary and innovative leaders and ideas.

I remain to wonder iwapo Mwalimu angekuwepo angefanya nini tofauti ili kuokoa this Dinosaur from becoming extinct katika siasa za nchi yetu.
 
So kwa mtazamo wako kundi la 4, 5 na 6 ni dhaifu hata for 2015? does it mean kundi namba moja a mbili ndio yenye nguvu? in what sense, ndani ya chama au mgombea wao kukubalika na umma? ningependa kusikia mawazo yako on that;

mchambuzi nafikiri katika mazingira haya tuliyonayo kwa sasa kundi 1. 2 yna nguvu zaidi kwa sababu ya misimamo yao inayojulikana na umaarufu wao kwa umma...mpaka sasa mvuto kwa umma utakua na ushawishi mkubwa. ndani ya chama kuna watu waliumia na kampeni za 2005 wengi hawatopenda sana kundi no2 washinde huku uwezo wa kifedha utawabeba kundi no 2 kwa wana ccm wengi "vijana" na ambao wanajenga cv zao mida hii. uwezo wa kumshinda mgombea wa upinzani, uwezo binafsi wa kundi kifedha, na vigezo vingine vina maana, lakini kwa haraka haraka haya ndiyo makundi muhimu kwa sasa ndani ya chama na nje kwa sababu ya historia zao kwa umma na ushawishi wa huu umma mpaka sasa kisiasa.
 

Hii inanipa tafsiri kwamba kundi namba moja na kundi mbili ni "same difference" - kwa maana ya kwamba by 2015, in the eyes of the electorate, kuna uwezekano kwamba the difference between the two camps will not be important.
 
Nadhani by 1995 Mwalimu alisha "give up" on CCM. Ukisikia hotuba aliyoitoa Bukoba kumkampeinia Mkapa alionyesha kuwa Mkapa was the last hope kuirudisha CCM kundini. Kumbe Mkapa akawahiwa na mafisadi. Mwaka huo huo Musoma, Mwalimu alikampeinia na kumpigia kura mgombea wa NCCR baada ya CCM kukataa kumwengua mgombea ambaye Mwalimu alisema ni mwizi.
 

Kwa mtazamo wako, wagombea wenye mtazamo wa mwalimu watakuwa na nafasi gani katika uchaguzi wa 2015 - katika siasa za ndani ya chama na kitaifa kwa ujumla in the context of upepo wa kisiasa wa sasa ambao kuna kila dalili kwamba una favour chadema kwa vigezo ambavyo hatuna uhakika kama ni reliable in the long term na kama vitakuwa na mashiko hadi uchaguzi mkuu ujao;
 
Kwa mtazamo wangu ni kwamba uongozi wa sasa ndani ya CCM, kuanzia enzi za Mkapa, hawataki kusikia lolote kuhusu Mwalimu. Nakumbuka walipokutana Butiama, kabla ya Lowassa kujiuzulu, Makongoro aliwaambia hadharani kwamba Lowassa hatufai. Hawakumsikiliza. Akina Butiku, Warioba, wote ni kama pariahs ndani ya CCM ya leo. Siku moja nimekaa kwenye dinner na Nyalandu nikamsikia akisema kuwa hakuna uwezekano wa kuangalia tena azimo la Arusha. Viongozi wa kisasa wa CCM wameshalizika and they are happy with that. Yeyote atakayeleta mambo ya azimio ndani ya CCM sidhani atafika popote. Baadhi yao wanakisaidia Chadema chini ya meza kwa sababu mawazo yao yanapuuzwa ndani ya CCM.
 


Sir,

I hear what you say. But one thing is for sure. If the framers of the constitution get it right or partially right, the dynamics of 2015 would be very different.
 

Nimekusoma mkuu.

Mimi nadhani watu wanatumia muda mwingi sana kulipotosha azimio la Arusha kuliko kulielewa, let alone kuweka juhudi ya kuchukua baadhi ya mambo yake ambayo bado ni muhimu sana kama kweli tuna nia ya kuirudisha nchi yetu katika mstari. In short, Mwalimu alijaribu kuja na ground theory badala ya kuiga theory kutoka jamii nyingine katika kutafuta njia ya kuliendeleza taifa letu. Hakuna nchi ambayo imefanikiwa kwa kuiga mfumo wa nchi zilizotangulia kimaendeleo bila ya kubebwa bebwa. Watu wanapenda sana kutumia mifano ya south korea n.k, tena wengine ni viongozi wetu wakubwa kabisa. This is a fallacy; nchi kama south korea ziliokolewa na dynamics za Cold War kwa kupakatwa pakatwa na kunyonyeshwa nyonyeshwa ili zisitumbukie mikononi mwa Soviet, vinginevyo zingekuwa kama sisi au pengine maskini kutuzidi.

NI bahati mbaya sana wengi bado wanachukulia kwamba Mwalimu Nyerere aliiangusha nchi yetu kimaendeleo kutokana na mfumo wake wa Ujamaa kwa maana ya kwamba THE STATE UNDER UJAMAA FAILED. Soko huria likaletwa na wakubwa wa nje wakishirikiana na vibaraka wao nchi Tanzania (wengine kweney utawala wa CCM), lakini kwa miaka 27 sasa tunazidi kushuhudia jinsi gani THE STATE UNDER FREE MARKET HAS FAILED. Kwa maana nyingine, while Ujamaa led to State Failure, Soko huria has led to Market Failure. Mbaya zaidi, both of the failures i.e. that of the state and of the market, zinatokea mikononi mwa CCM.

· What does this tell us about CCM na Serikali yake - justification na legitimacy ya CCM kuendelea kutawala ipo wapi?
· Pia Je, when the state failed under Ujamaa, who succeeded or benefited?
· And since the market has failed for 27 years now, who has succeeded or benefited?

Kwa kiongozi kama Nyarandu kutamka kwamba hakuna wa kuliangalia tena azimio la Arusha kwa sababu viongozi wameshalizika na they are happy about that, inabidi ajiulize:


  • Je do their constituents share that happiness with them (viongozi) au happiness is only confined within the family and political circles?

Kama jibu ni hapana, then something is very wrong kwa maana ya kwamba nchi is in the hands of a wrong regime, lakini mbaya zaidi, the country is heading towards a wrong direction.

Kinachokatisha tamaa ni kwamba hakuna dalili ya kuwepo na wagombea ndani ya CCM ambao wana mikakati ya kutatua this predicament, hivyo kuzidi kukiweka Chama on a collision course na umma uliochoka.
 
Sir,

I hear what you say. But one thing is for sure. If the framers of the constitution get it right or partially right, the dynamics of 2015 would be very different.

But i think more importantly ni wananchi kama watakuwa na uelewa wa nini maana ya katiba na nini kinahitajika kiwemo ndani ya katiba kuwakomboa. Vinginevyo framers wa katiba can easily frame the constitution for the interest of the few, and we all know who.
 

Of course the framers have their own predispositions. But one thing for sure is young people indirectly want to distance themselves from the legacies of post independency policies and also the cold war. So any constitution that doesn't provide a framework that would assist Tanzanians to solve their current issues democratically and transparently is doomed to fail.

Now with regard to the topic at hand, I am curious to know the impact of Kundi la nne in 2015 general election. According to Jasusi, the top people in this group are pariah in their own political party. They don't have a say in the current settings, but they have one important work that other groups in your analysis don't have.

They are rewriting the constitution of the country and more importantly setting the rules for the next general election.
 

Mchambuzi.

Azimio la Arusha is just a nostalgia. There's nothing in it that could really work or inspire people to do better. Yes, once upon a time it was a popular document, but that was it, a pure classic fable.

CCM can't stay in power forever, whether they follow Azimio la Arusha religiously or not. In previous elections people favored CCM not because the party was doing a fantastic job to lead the country from the abyss of economic backwardness, but because the party was the only devil electorates know.

In many African countries, some around us, electorates have kicked out the political parties which brought independencies. And I personally believe that Tanzanians need this experience because it's good for the party and the country.

For the party, it brings a fresh perspective about good governance. And for the country it will help to strengthen public institutions and also boost public morale.
 

Jasusi makes a valid point that the individuals in Camp Number 4 in our analysis are like outcasts. But I remain to wonder why:
· Is it because of the ideas/vision that they have for this country?
· Is it due to their character?
· Is it based on their bad track record (if any) when they were in power serving this country?

The kaduma, Kitine, Butiku, Warioba, Salim are key individuals in this camp. They have both strengths and weaknesses. On the one hand, one major strength ni kwamba jamii kwa kiasi kikubwa inawaona kama they are the few remnants of Mwalimu in terms of leaders wenye integrity, wanaoweka nchi mbele ya maslahi binafsi, na vile vile incorruptible. However, this comes with one major weakness – unlike Mwalimu, kila wanapokikosoa chama, they do it with some reservations, they don't finish the last mile. Hii inapunguza kasi ya kuaminika among watu waelewa wa siasa za sasa.
But tukubaliane kwamba kuwa na msimamo wa Mwalimu katika nyakazi hizi ni kujitafutia matatizo, hasa if you take into account of the fact kwamba Chama kimekuwa kinajizatiti zaidi to consolidate power and influence kwa kufanya matumizi makubwa (fedha) to maintain law and order badala ya kutafuta legitimacy kupitia matumizi on the social welfare front. Tunakumbuka vizuri sana kwamba hata Mwalimu katika miaka ya mwanzo ya tisini was a pariah too. Hata kitabu chake kilichokosoa uongozi wa nchi kilipigwa marufuku kuchapishwa Tanzania na badala yake kikachapishwa Zimbabwe. So wafuasi wake wa baadae kama kina Mzee Kitine, Kaduma n.k, their situation can't get any better.

Suala la kujadili now ni Je, hii issue ya Pariah ina any legitimacy? Na ni kutokana kwa nani, Viongozi Wakuu au Wanachama? Tusisahau Chama ni WATU. Tatizo lililopo pia in my view ni kwamba wanachama wa CCM always ni watiifu kwa kiongozi yoyote ambae yupo madarakani wakati huo, bila ya kujali utendaji wake au madudu yake akiwa kwenye madaraka ya kichama. Lakini ukiondoka tu madarakani – whether ulikuwa kiongozi mzuri au mbaya, umuhimu wako umeisha. Ndio maana ni vigumu kupata viongozi wastaafu ambao wanaweza ku intervene kuokoa chama na wakapata blessings za wanachama vis a vis blessings ya viongozi. Na tujikumbushe tena kwamba Chama ni Watu, sio Viongozi.

Mwisho naomba nitoe maoni yangu kuhusu hoja yako kuhusu Group number four kwamba:

…They don't have a say in the current settings, but they have one important work that other groups in your analysis don't have

I beg to differ kidogo and here is why. Kama kundi hili lilikuwa na a big say and influence in 2005 katika mazingira ambayo yalikuwa obvious kwamba kundi la mtandao lilikuwa halina mpinzani (ndani na nje ya CCM), but still kundi hili managed to kushangaza wengi kwa kupata kura 600 (over 30% of the total za wagombea watatu yani JK, Salim, na Mwandosya), je nafasi yao 2015 ni nini, hasa ukizingatia kwamba CCM kama chama faces a crisis from within? My key point hapa ni kwamba, pamoja na nguvu kubwa ya mtandao 2005, Camp number four bado iliweza kupata kura nyingi sana katika uchaguzi wa ndani na bila ya rushwa, vitisho wa hila zozote bali Nguvu ya Hoja. Sasa katika mazingira ya leo ambapo CCM is on the brink of collapsing, mimi nadhani kundi hili bado linaweza kupata kura nyingi sana kama litaweka mtu makini na kujalizia kwenye zile kura 600 za mwaka 200, kwa maana ya kwamba kazi yao kubwa sasa ni kutafuta kura ya 601 na kuendelea, sio kuanza sifuri.

Kwa maoni yangu, kazi yao itakuwa rahisi sana wakijipanga kwani wafuasi wao bado wapo wengi na pia tangia 2005, unlike other camps, camp hii haijatingwa na kashfa yoyote na haijaonyesha any major resentments ya kufanya nchi isitawalike. Kundi hili bado lina umuhimu sana katika siasa za sasa za CCM na ndio maana wengi wao wametupwa huko kwenye tume ya katiba ili kuwapooza majeraha ya 2005, lakini muhimu zaidi, sitashangaa kama kumetokea uamuzi wa kisiri siri kuwapa nafasi ya kuznguka nchi nzima under the name of tume ya katiba mpya – kwenda kujitengenezea mazingira ya 2015 bila ya washindani wengine kujua hilo. Huko mikoani wana kila nafasi ya kupita nyumba kwa nyumba, chumba kwa chumba, shuka kwa shuka. Kwa kweli sitashangaa kama huo ndio mkakati wa siri uliowekwa na watu fulani fulani ndani ya CCM kama nia ya kuiokoa CCM 2015, Nyerere akiwa ndio karata kuu ya kukiokoa chama katika siasa za ndani ya chama lakini pia na za kitaifa (upinzani). Mark my Words!
 

I remember we had a very deep debate on Azimio Arusha i think in a thread that was started by WJM. All in all, in most part i do agree with you but i still insist of the importance of dividing the said debate i.e azimio on four fronts namely NIA, MCHAKATO, UTEKELEZAJI na MATOKEO. Hivyo ndivyo we would be able to identify what went wrong and what went right under Azimio la Arusha.
 
Kwa jinsi nilivyoona chaguzi za matawi (nilikwa bongo wakati huo), ni kazi sana kwa kundi la kina Warioba kuwa influencial kitaifa. Bia na mbuzi waliochinjwa tawini tu wanaweza kukutisha. Uchawi, kufukua vichwa vya paka, mifupa ya wanyama, ugomvi, rufaa mahakamani, udini na ukabila vilikuwa vinatia aibu.

Kuna vijana wana kadi za CDM na CCM, kazi yao kutafuta post matawini, kuna fedha za vigogo zinatembea huko huwezi kuamini. Watu hawajali itikadi au sera, ni fedha, fedha na fedha.

Bila katiba itayokataza viongozi wasio na sifa kama zilivyobainishwa kwenye Azimio la Arusha, tumekwisha.
 

What do you think of my perception kwamba tume ya katiba imejazwa watu wa kundi namba nne kwenda kuua ndege wawili kwa jiwe moja? hawa watu nadhani wamepata resources za kuzunguka kila kona ya nchi kuliko hata uwezo waliokuwa nao katika uchaguzi wa ndani wa CCM 2005.

Na kuhusu hoja yako kwamba sifa za viongozi bora zipo bayana kwenye azimio la arusha, nakubaliana na wewe. Sijui Zakumi atakuwa na maoni gani juu ya hilo kwa sababu kwa kiasi kikubwa, hana imani na azimio hili. Tusubiri kusikia toka kwake juu ya azimio la arusha na sifa za kiongozi bora.
 
Mchambuzi,
I dare to guess that the individuals in camp number 4 are outcasts simply because the so called mafisadis, who came to power after Mwinyi and Mkapa became presidents had a different agenda. When the late Kigoma Malima was minister of Finance under Mwinyi, we used to meet often in Washington. He used to dress up in a Kaunda suit under Mwalimu. This time, as finance minister, we meet at the Ambassador's residency, and the first thing he tells me is "siku hizi tunakula na kushiba," and while saying that, he is opening his double breasted suit and tie to show me his tummy. To them, Mwalimu's policies ziliwazuia kula na kushiba. So anything that appears to be remnants of Mwalimu's philosophy, was/is anathema to them. That is why up to this day people like Chenge are not only free, but hold important positions in CCM. And people like Wassira, who was not corrupt under Mwalimu, had to join the bandwagon. And the Mwalimu followers have been marginalized if not extinct.
 
I happened to be a little close to that camp (so called).
Ni kama kwenye movie ya Pulp Fiction, kuna mzee anaitwa "Wolf", mtaalam wa ku-dispose bodies.Yaani kukiwa na mvutano wa kitaifa, ambao unahatarisha stability ya status quo, hao wazee ndiyo huitwa.

Wapinzani waliposhikilia mchakato wa katiba mpya, na jinsi ya kukusanya maoni, ilbidi kambi hiyo iongee na wapinzani ili angalau wapoe badala ya kususa. Ndiyo iliyowakutanisha wapinzani na Jakaya, ndiyo iliyowapoza kina Mbowe wakaamua kuuubali mchakato wa maoni.

Tume ya katiba kwa hiyo, ina "Resources" but not "Authority"..... You need both and the only way they can get the later is through disloyalty,something they lack in their heartz.
 

I think your argument is more of a hypothesis than a guess - We have plenty of facts and observations that we can use as evidence to explain the phenomenon. And I think the proponents of Zanzibar Declaration are not in good faith with anything that appears to be Nyerere's remnants because "political leadership" has transformed from... serving the people, to serving the stomach. Today, unfortunately, in order for you to make to any political office, you must also feed the stomach of the electorate, or else forget about it. But there is also one thing that's worth mentioning: some of these political leaders get very defensive about their failures when they are in power but when they loose grip to their power, they turn their backs against the regime. For instance, sometime last year, i put comments on Face Book explaining why I think CCM will become extinct...; then a few days later, a close friend of mine gave me a call saying Minister Maige did not like your comments and thinks you are very wrong. A year later, Maige lost his cabinet post and since then, things that he has been giving his tongue to are no different from what I discussed a year earlier. What does this tell us about our stock of young leaders?
 

I like your analysis and cant agree with you more. But do you think authority isnt much of an issue if they are very well organised and instead they should utilize the resources that they have access kujijengea legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate? And since you have been close to this camp, do you think they will die in their ideological boots (CCM) or there is a chance that they may join the opposition wagon - not neccesarily by quitting CCM but supporting the opposition? After all, if Nyerere made it clear that CCM SIO MAMA YANGU, NAWEZA KUACHANA NAYO, who are they to be on a collision course na Nyerere? what would make them stay katika mazingira ambayo chama kipo katika hali mbaya zaidi compared to wakati ule when Mwalimu made that statement. Nauliza/nasema haya because i am still trying to digest your seminal statement that in order for them to succeed, they would need both - resources and authority and the only way they can acquire that is by being disloyal to their party (CCM). I think loyalty in this context has to be inspired by love for one's country because one can interchange the word loyalty and patriotic. If you agree with me on that, I think 'authority' may not be as important as 'legitimacy'.
 

Mchambuzi naona hapa umelenga penyewe hasa. Sasa hivi CCM imesahau au inapretend kuwa imesahau yenyewe ni nani na kazi zake ni zipi, hilo unaweza kuona kutoka chama ngazi ya Taifa, hadi mwanachama mmoja mmoja. Ndio maana sasa hivi chama kinatumiwa kama njia ya kufikia malengo binafsi, hasa ya kiuchumi. Itakuwa ni vizuri tukijua kuwa baadhi ya wagombea watagombea kwa ajili ya immunity, au kujenga alliances kwa kuwaunga mkono watu fulani ili in return wapate immunity, lakini bado sioni kama kweli tutakuwa na wagombea ambao watakuwa na nia ya kweli ya kutekeleza ilani ya chama, wa kutekeleza sera na hata kuangalia itikadi ya chama, au kuifanya Tanzania ipige hatua.

Tunahitaji kufanya kazi kubwa ili kubadilisha hali hiyo, kama wapiga kura wakipata ufahamu wa kutosha wanaweza kuamua kuwachagua wale wenye nia ya kuwasaidia, na sio wale wanaowatumia wapiga kura na kuwawakilisha kama ulinzi wa madhambi yao. Naona kazi ipi kubwa sana...still sioni mwanga sana 2015, labda inaweza kuwa ovyo kuliko hata sasa.
 
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