Cost comparison SGR Kenya vs SGR Tanzania

Cost comparison SGR Kenya vs SGR Tanzania

thisdayes said:
Tz was getting a better deal from China but Magufuli wanted the best deal and he got it from Yapi Markez. Kenyas story is a sad one, how does a km costs $10.7m!! Excluding rolling stock and free of equipment mobilisation costs!! Only an insane mind or a benefecial of this graft can justify this. Kafrican i expect you to be living in a mansion in Karen, i should pay you a visit some time. If i find you living in Korogocho or somewhere else of that status i will pray for you so as the spirit of stupidity to free you.
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SGR phase 1 costed 6m/km including a rolling stock of 56 locomotive and about 2,000 wagons...

Here, the gross cost of SGR 1 is Sh3.8 billion for 609 km, or Sh643 million ($6.2 million) per km.
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It's the 120km of phase 2A that is costing more than $10m/km excluding rolling stock for that route... But for a reason, it's got almost 40% of that route is bridges and tunnels on difficult sections....

SGR Kenya has been analised and counter analised since b4 it even begun construction... We know all the good and bad and the urgly...everything is in the open.... Tunataka analysis kama hio ya Tz sasa ambayo inaangalia SGR yenu critically.... The debate doesn't end in cost per km. Or even the designed capacity of the Ethiopia,Tz me rails..... Tupatieni analysis za cargo prediction etc
 
Kafrican said:
SGR phase 1 costed 6m/km including a rolling stock of 56 locomotive and about 2,000 wagons...




It's the 120km of phase 2A that is costing more than $10m/km excluding rolling stock for that route... But for a reason, it's got almost 40% of that route is bridges and tunnels on difficult sections....

SGR Kenya has been analised and counter analised since b4 it even begun construction... We know all the good and bad and the urgly...everything is in the open.... Tunataka analysis kama hio ya Tz sasa ambayo inaangalia SGR yenu critically.... The debate doesn't end in cost per km. Or even the designed capacity of the Ethiopia,Tz me rails..... Tupatieni analysis za cargo prediction etc
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Yes it has been "analised" 😅
 
Kafrican said:
SGR phase 1 costed 6m/km including a rolling stock of 56 locomotive and about 2,000 wagons...




It's the 120km of phase 2A that is costing more than $10m/km excluding rolling stock for that route... But for a reason, it's got almost 40% of that route is bridges and tunnels on difficult sections....

SGR Kenya has been analised and counter analised since b4 it even begun construction... We know all the good and bad and the urgly...everything is in the open.... Tunataka analysis kama hio ya Tz sasa ambayo inaangalia SGR yenu critically.... The debate doesn't end in cost per km. Or even the designed capacity of the Ethiopia,Tz me rails..... Tupatieni analysis za cargo prediction etc
Click to expand...
Everything is on the website n worry not about cargo! Considering the mining projects current underway.

As a mining country n surrounded by mining neighbors that r already using Dar port worry not my friend. Check here n here !

Envoy: Australian mining firms flocking to Tanzania

Beijing forum to clear the air on mining policy

As we speak cargo business to Uganda has picked up after a revamp of narrow gauge service to Port Bell to an extent JPM has issued around $2 mln to be used to renovate more than 800 cargo wagons.

This is after a similar initiative to revamp PAX wagons n locomotives. Mind u a revamp of Tanga-Arusha railway is nearly completion while Tanga port has been on expansion ever since.

 
Kafrican said:
SGR phase 1 costed 6m/km including a rolling stock of 56 locomotive and about 2,000 wagons...




It's the 120km of phase 2A that is costing more than $10m/km excluding rolling stock for that route... But for a reason, it's got almost 40% of that route is bridges and tunnels on difficult sections....

SGR Kenya has been analised and counter analised since b4 it even begun construction... We know all the good and bad and the urgly...everything is in the open.... Tunataka analysis kama hio ya Tz sasa ambayo inaangalia SGR yenu critically.... The debate doesn't end in cost per km. Or even the designed capacity of the Ethiopia,Tz me rails..... Tupatieni analysis za cargo prediction etc
Click to expand...
Mnapigwa sana na hao wachina in collabo na Uhuruto. Mngefanya analysis ya maana msinge jenga rail isiyo kua electrified then baada ya kuisha mnasema mta electrify next year!! Nyie mpaka predictions za cargo mmedanganywa, prediction zenu zime assume mizigo yote itakayo ingia kwenye port zitapita kwenye rail na neighbouring countries hazito tumia port ya Dar ata kwa 1%!! Kenyans mtapata mnacho stahili, too bad it wont be good.
 
thisdayes said:
Mnapigwa sana na hao wachina in collabo na Uhuruto. Mngefanya analysis ya maana msinge jenga rail isiyo kua electrified then baada ya kuisha mnasema mta electrify next year!! Nyie mpaka predictions za cargo mmedanganywa, prediction zenu zime assume mizigo yote itakayo ingia kwenye port zitapita kwenye rail na neighbouring countries hazito tumia port ya Dar ata kwa 1%!! Kenyans mtapata mnacho stahili, too bad it wont be good.
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Kuna hii kesi US ya jamaa anashtakiwa kuhonga African leaders kupitia UN NGO yenye account within the US kuingia mikataba ya kukopa katika mradi wa Belt and Road. Uhuruto hawakosi kama recipient.

The rise and fall of a Belt and Road billionaire
 
Geza Ulole said:
Kuna hii kesi US ya jamaa anashtakiwa kuhonga African leaders kupitia UN NGO yenye account within the US kuingia mikataba ya kukopa katika mradi wa Belt and Road. Uhuruto hawakosi kama recipient.

The rise and fall of a Belt and Road billionaire
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Road and belt deals! Uhuruto imewapa shavu sana. Wachina wajanja sana. Huyo jamaa ni mtu wao sema kuna sehemu wamepishana watakua wame mweka sehemu anakula bata. Tuwe makini na hizi kampuni za CCEC, CCFC e.t.c
 
thisdayes said:
Mnapigwa sana na hao wachina in collabo na Uhuruto. Mngefanya analysis ya maana msinge jenga rail isiyo kua electrified then baada ya kuisha mnasema mta electrify next year!! Nyie mpaka predictions za cargo mmedanganywa, prediction zenu zime assume mizigo yote itakayo ingia kwenye port zitapita kwenye rail na neighbouring countries hazito tumia port ya Dar ata kwa 1%!! Kenyans mtapata mnacho stahili, too bad it wont be good.
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Kama kawa mnabaki kuchambua reli ya Kenya ambayo information yote iko hadharani wakati reli ya Tz tuko kwa giza.....
Anyway, ripoti yenyewe iliokua inaongelewa inaonyesha prediction.
cargo imefanywa kwa route nzima, yani cargo inayotoka na kuingia Mombasa port kwenda Nairobi and beyond, kwa hio ripoti huyo mwanahabari alifikiria ni prediction ya mizigo ya phase 2A pekee ndio maana akasema iko exergirrated..... Kwahivyo Ukisema sisi tuna assume mizigo yote ya kwenda Ug itapita kwa reli hapo unaassume vibaya, hesabu zetu za mizigo ya reli tumeweka at 40% of all cargo ndo itatumia reli..

Katika prediction ya cargo kuna Initial stage [2019-2024], Shorterm stage [2025-2030] na longterm ambayo inaanzia 2040 and beyond. Wakisema 1 cargo train wanamaanisha 1 pair, yani one train from each direction. so wakisema 2 passenger train they mean 4 actual train services.

1544353409682.png



Ukiangalia shoterm prediction ya annual freight inaanzia 2025 ambapo mizigo itakua 10m tonnes p.a.
Hio habari ambayo Geza ameleta iliandikwa Jan 2017 na hizo predictions, Mwaka mmoja kabla freight services zianze.
in realityfreight service ilianza Jan 2018 na kulikua na changamoto tele miezi mitano ya kwanza tulikua tunabeba chini ya 400 TEUs per day.... alafu baada ya kutatua changamoto kadhaa tukapanda kuandia 500TEUS per day, 550, 600, 650, 700 hadi by October 2018 ilikua tumefika a high of 800TEUs per day, kulingana na growth rate hio tutafikisha 1,200TEUs by next year 2019 ambayo ni kama 8 Million tonnes p.a... tutakua tuko na 2020,2021,2022, 2023, 2024 kuongezea only 2million tonnes ndo tufikie shorterm prediction...
Kulingana na projection za watu wengi amabao wanajiita 'wataalam' walikua wanadai hata hio 8m tonnes hatutawai ifikia karne hii kwahivyo wote wangoje kuabishwa mwaka ujao....


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Sasa tufanye prediction ya Tz hata bila official data. Unlike Kenya ambao mji mkuu uko kati kati ya Kenya, Tanzania mji wa daresalaam uko hapo bandarini na hauhitaji SGR.... Daresalaam inachukua kama 40-50% ya mizigo yote..... Mji wa tatu kwa Ukubwa Arusha haujafikiwa na SGR...... Tunabaki na Dodoma, Mwanza na Mbeya kama the only source/destination ya mizigo ndani ya Tanzania (Kenya tuko na Nairobi,Naivasha, Nakuru,Kisumu ambayo imegiwanya along the route) .... Rwanda na Burundi wako na combined tonnage ya nchini ya 2 million tonnes p.a kwahivyo hapo hakuna biashara...... Tegemeo lenu lililobaki itakua ni Uganda ambapo Kenya tayari iko na mkonona mguu ndani... hii reli yenu kazi yake itakua ni kusafirisha minerals za akina barrick gold etc which will be good for TRC butnot good for TZ general economy!
 
Kafrican said:
Kama kawa mnabaki kuchambua reli ya Kenya ambayo information yote iko hadharani wakati reli ya Tz tuko kwa giza.....
Anyway, ripoti yenyewe iliokua inaongelewa inaonyesha prediction.
cargo imefanywa kwa route nzima, yani cargo inayotoka na kuingia Mombasa port kwenda Nairobi and beyond, kwa hio ripoti huyo mwanahabari alifikiria ni prediction ya mizigo ya phase 2A pekee ndio maana akasema iko exergirrated..... Kwahivyo Ukisema sisi tuna assume mizigo yote ya kwenda Ug itapita kwa reli hapo unaassume vibaya, hesabu zetu za mizigo ya reli tumeweka at 40% of all cargo ndo itatumia reli..

Katika prediction ya cargo kuna Initial stage [2019-2024], Shorterm stage [2025-2030] na longterm ambayo inaanzia 2040 and beyond. Wakisema 1 cargo train wanamaanisha 1 pair, yani one train from each direction. so wakisema 2 passenger train they mean 4 actual train services.

View attachment 961549


Ukiangalia shoterm prediction ya annual freight inaanzia 2025 ambapo mizigo itakua 10m tonnes p.a.
Hio habari ambayo Geza ameleta iliandikwa Jan 2017 na hizo predictions, Mwaka mmoja kabla freight services zianze.
in realityfreight service ilianza Jan 2018 na kulikua na changamoto tele miezi mitano ya kwanza tulikua tunabeba chini ya 400 TEUs per day.... alafu baada ya kutatua changamoto kadhaa tukapanda kuandia 500TEUS per day, 550, 600, 650, 700 hadi by October 2018 ilikua tumefika a high of 800TEUs per day, kulingana na growth rate hio tutafikisha 1,200TEUs by next year 2019 ambayo ni kama 8 Million tonnes p.a... tutakua tuko na 2020,2021,2022, 2023, 2024 kuongezea only 2million tonnes ndo tufikie shorterm prediction...
Kulingana na projection za watu wengi amabao wanajiita 'wataalam' walikua wanadai hata hio 8m tonnes hatutawai ifikia karne hii kwahivyo wote wangoje kuabishwa mwaka ujao....


--------------------------------------
Sasa tufanye prediction ya Tz hata bila official data. Unlike Kenya ambao mji mkuu uko kati kati ya Kenya, Tanzania mji wa daresalaam uko hapo bandarini na hauhitaji SGR.... Daresalaam inachukua kama 40-50% ya mizigo yote..... Mji wa tatu kwa Ukubwa Arusha haujafikiwa na SGR...... Tunabaki na Dodoma, Mwanza na Mbeya kama the only source/destination ya mizigo ndani ya Tanzania (Kenya tuko na Nairobi,Naivasha, Nakuru,Kisumu ambayo imegiwanya along the route) .... Rwanda na Burundi wako na combined tonnage ya nchini ya 2 million tonnes p.a kwahivyo hapo hakuna biashara...... Tegemeo lenu lililobaki itakua ni Uganda ambapo Kenya tayari iko na mkonona mguu ndani... hii reli yenu kazi yake itakua ni kusafirisha minerals za akina barrick gold etc which will be good for TRC butnot good for TZ general economy!
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Hizo predictions didn't factor or consider emergence of JPM! During the study central corridor was dead now it's working. Dar was centre of government activities now Dodoma is and JPM is relocating to Dodoma this month.

The Mwanza-Port Bell wagon ferries were all defect. Now 3 ferries r working plus a new underconstruction. Tanga n Dar ports were limited capacitywise 3 years down the line modernization carried out n serious expansion underway.

Aside maintenance of cargo wagons (1000) and locomotives (30) new 800 cargo wagons r being revamped. Mind u 27 brand new locomotives were acquired. Tanga-Arusha railway is being revamped after Dar-Mwanza, Dar-Kigoma.







 
Geza Ulole said:
Hizo predictions didn't factor or consider emergence of JPM! At the study central corridor was dead now it's working. The Mwanza-Port Bell wagon ferries were all defect.

Now 3 ferries r working plus a new underconstruction. Tanga n Dar ports were limited capacitywise 3 years down the line modernization carried out n serious expansion underway.

Aside maintenance of cargo wagons (1000) and locomotives new 800 cargo wagons r being revamped. Tanga-Arusha railway is being revamped after Dar-Mwanza, Dar-Kigoma.


Click to expand...

The predictions especially from the EAC railway masterplan envisaged Tz and Uganda physically connected by rail in the kagera region.... Whatever infrastructure plan you have of transporting through L.Victoria will have significantly much less capacity than a direct rail link. The current ships you have can carry 44 TEUs per trip that takes almost 12 hours to cross L.Victoria.
 
Kafrican said:
The predictions especially from the EAC railway masterplan envisaged Tz and Uganda physically connected by rail in the kagera region.... Whatever infrastructure plan you have of transporting through L.Victoria will have significantly much less capacity than a direct rail link. The current ships you have can carry 44 TEUs per trip that takes almost 12 hours to cross L.Victoria.
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But a fact remain a fact, there was no cargo train that was operating btn Dar port n Kampala via a railway plus cargo ferry. Aside a new ferry is being built by 2020 there will be four meaning a total of 8 trips (4 to n 4 fro) will be made per day. Each wagon ferry transport the whole train.

Moreover Port Bell is undergoing serious improvements via a $48mln loan from two German banks i.e. AKA Bank and Commerzbank AG.

Uganda moving to revive transport and trade on L.Victoria
 
thisdayes said:
Mnapigwa sana na hao wachina in collabo na Uhuruto. Mngefanya analysis ya maana msinge jenga rail isiyo kua electrified then baada ya kuisha mnasema mta electrify next year!! Nyie mpaka predictions za cargo mmedanganywa, prediction zenu zime assume mizigo yote itakayo ingia kwenye port zitapita kwenye rail na neighbouring countries hazito tumia port ya Dar ata kwa 1%!! Kenyans mtapata mnacho stahili, too bad it wont be good.
Click to expand...
Alafu hapo kwa red, tafadhalini leteni prediction/projection za tz alafu ndo tujadili....

Unasema tumedanganywa na mchina kwasababu ameproject tutakua tunabeba 21m tonnes by 2030 kwa SGR wakati ripoti ya EAC rail masterplan ilisema only 9million tonnes p.a by 2030.....
numeitafuta hio EAC masterplan nijisomee mwenyewe ndo niamini kweli, nikagundua kwa hio EAC masterplan projections zilifanywa kwa kutegemea meter guage iboreshwe na kukarabatiwa!!!!

Anyway, wakati Kenya ilikua projected at 9million tonnes p.a kama best case scenario by 2030

1544360905028.png




Uganda 3million

1544360989470.png





Na Tanzania 5 million tonnes p.a

1544361046348.png




Kwahivyo, kama vile umesema tulidanganywa na mchina kwasababu ya kilichosemwa ndani ya ripoti ya EAC masterplan, ile siku yepi merkezi ataamua kuwajulisha prediction ya cargo, akiwaambia chochote zaidi ya 5million tonnes by 2030, mjue mnadanganywa pia....... Hakuna mwanahabari yeyote kutoka Tz ameandika ripoti kuhusu hili jambo na kujiuliza kwanini kama EAC masterplan inapredict only 5 million tonnes by 2030 na tayari reli ya Central corridor inafanya kazi, kwanini kujengwe SGR hadi huko mwanza wakati mizigo yote inaweza toshelezwa na reli ya kitambo??????
Lakini kwa vile wanahabari wenu hawataki kufikiria mtabaki mkisoma na kuchambua SGR ya Kenya ambayo wanahabari huichambua karibia kila mwezi...
 
Kafrican said:
Alafu hapo kwa red, tafadhalini leteni prediction/projection za tz alafu ndo tujadili....

Unasema tumedanganywa na mchina kwasababu ameproject tutakua tunabeba 21m tonnes by 2030 kwa SGR wakati ripoti ya EAC rail masterplan ilisema only 9million tonnes p.a by 2030.....
numeitafuta hio EAC masterplan nijisomee mwenyewe ndo niamini kweli, nikagundua kwa hio EAC masterplan projections zilifanywa kwa kutegemea meter guage iboreshwe na kukarabatiwa!!!!

Anyway, wakati Kenya ilikua projected at 9million tonnes p.a kama best case scenario by 2030

View attachment 961738



Uganda 3million

View attachment 961747




Na Tanzania 5 million tonnes p.a

View attachment 961749



Kwahivyo, kama vile umesema tulidanganywa na mchina kwasababu ya kilichosemwa ndani ya ripoti ya EAC masterplan, ile siku yepi merkezi ataamua kuwajulisha prediction ya cargo, akiwaambia chochote zaidi ya 5million tonnes by 2030, mjue mnadanganywa pia....... Hakuna mwanahabari yeyote kutoka Tz ameandika ripoti kuhusu hili jambo na kujiuliza kwanini kama EAC masterplan inapredict only 5 million tonnes by 2030 na tayari reli ya Central corridor inafanya kazi, kwanini kujengwe SGR hadi huko mwanza wakati mizigo yote inaweza toshelezwa na reli ya kitambo??????
Lakini kwa vile wanahabari wenu hawataki kufikiria mtabaki mkisoma na kuchambua SGR ya Kenya ambayo wanahabari huichambua karibia kila mwezi...
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Did the cargo prediction factor the follwing upcoming mining activities? Nickel from Western Tanzania and Burundi? Coltan from Tanzania and Rwanda, Uranium n graphite central Tanzania? Gold Mineral concentrates from Lake Victoria region?

Palm oil, cotton and Tobacco from Western Tanzania? Sesame oil from central Tanzania n grain cargo from across Tanzania? Was Eastern DRC that import their oil via Dar Port even factored?

If not why do u think the predictions r right? On the first year of urgency SGR working u have already missed the targets by far, whyou don't u open up ur eyes?

From January next year Dodoma is official capital for Tanzania with a sitting President as a resident, with city inhabitants eyeing a mln mark? was that change factored? FYI Already night travelling for PAX buses btn Dar n Dodoma is in the work!
 
Kafrican said:
Alafu hapo kwa red, tafadhalini leteni prediction/projection za tz alafu ndo tujadili....

Unasema tumedanganywa na mchina kwasababu ameproject tutakua tunabeba 21m tonnes by 2030 kwa SGR wakati ripoti ya EAC rail masterplan ilisema only 9million tonnes p.a by 2030.....
numeitafuta hio EAC masterplan nijisomee mwenyewe ndo niamini kweli, nikagundua kwa hio EAC masterplan projections zilifanywa kwa kutegemea meter guage iboreshwe na kukarabatiwa!!!!

Anyway, wakati Kenya ilikua projected at 9million tonnes p.a kama best case scenario by 2030

View attachment 961738



Uganda 3million

View attachment 961747




Na Tanzania 5 million tonnes p.a

View attachment 961749



Kwahivyo, kama vile umesema tulidanganywa na mchina kwasababu ya kilichosemwa ndani ya ripoti ya EAC masterplan, ile siku yepi merkezi ataamua kuwajulisha prediction ya cargo, akiwaambia chochote zaidi ya 5million tonnes by 2030, mjue mnadanganywa pia....... Hakuna mwanahabari yeyote kutoka Tz ameandika ripoti kuhusu hili jambo na kujiuliza kwanini kama EAC masterplan inapredict only 5 million tonnes by 2030 na tayari reli ya Central corridor inafanya kazi, kwanini kujengwe SGR hadi huko mwanza wakati mizigo yote inaweza toshelezwa na reli ya kitambo??????
Lakini kwa vile wanahabari wenu hawataki kufikiria mtabaki mkisoma na kuchambua SGR ya Kenya ambayo wanahabari huichambua karibia kila mwezi...
Click to expand...
Geza Ulole said:
Did the cargo prediction factor the follwing upcoming mining activities? Nickel from Western Tanzania and Burundi? Coltan from Tanzania and Rwanda, Uranium n graphite central Tanzania? Gold Mineral concentrates from Lake Victoria region?

Palm oil, cotton and Tobacco from Western Tanzania? Sesame oil from central Tanzania n grain cargo from across Tanzania? Was Eastern DRC that import their oil via Dar Port even factored?

If not why do u think the predictions r right? On the first year of urgency SGR working u have already missed the targets by far, whyou don't u open up ur eyes?

From January next year Dodoma is official capital for Tanzania with a sitting President as a resident, with city inhabitants eyeing a mln mark? was that change factored? FYI Already night travelling for PAX buses btn Dar n Dodoma is in the work!
Click to expand...
Nazani majibu umepewa mubashara kabisa.. halafu rail yetu ni design & build ukielewa hili itakusaidia sana. Watu walisha ichambua waka conclude ni the best in Africa au tukuletee link [emoji23]
 
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