Dr. David Bell: Magufuli kukataa lock down nchini Tanzania kuliokoa maisha ya maelfu ya watu

Dr. David Bell: Magufuli kukataa lock down nchini Tanzania kuliokoa maisha ya maelfu ya watu

Chanjo ya Astra Zeneca aliyopendekeza mwenyekiti wetu Mbowe ije haraka sana. Corona Tanzania ipo inaua maelfu kwa maelfu... Mwenda zake alikua muongo, sie tunamuamini mwenyekiti wetu Mbowe tu

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Kinuju said:
Mchambuzi kwenye gazeti hilo ambaye ni mfanyakazi aliyepita wa shirika la afya duniani (WHO) amesema kitendo cha Magufuli kukataa lock down nchini Tanzania kuliokoa maisha ya maelfu ya watu hasa akina mama, wazee na watoto.

Mchambuzi huyo amesema kwenye nchi ambazo walifungia watu ndani(lockdown) maelfu ya watu walikufa kutokana na njaa pamoja na magonjwa mengine na siyo Corona.

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Magufuli’s Covid response saved thousands​


Dr David Bell

He may have been ridiculed in the West for rejecting lockdowns and encouraging prayer-a-thons. But as ex-World Health Organization scientist Dr David Bell explains, Tanzania's late president John Magufuli is not seen as a pariah by many in the scientific community – he’s seen as a life-saver.

If you read the BBC website, you probably think Tanzania’s late president was either a rebel, a ‘Covid denier’ or just plain stupid.
In reality, he was none of these.

President Magufuli was actually a highly educated scientist with a PhD in chemistry, who probably saved thousands of lives by refusing to embrace lockdowns and other knee-jerk reactions foisted on the people in much of Africa and the West.

Magufuli’s decision not to lock down was consistent with the evidence-based pandemic guidelines released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019.

He rightly predicted that Covid-19 mortality in Africa would be very low compared to other major killers like malaria, tuberculous (TB) and HIV-Aids, and followed good public health principles in prioritising these higher burden diseases that particularly afflict the young, while telling Tanzanians not to panic.

He also prioritised keeping the economy growing, which is in the long term the most effective way of improving life-expectancy and health. In short, he acted as you would expect a well-trained scientist and rational public health expert to act in the Tanzanian context.

Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the media has demanded longer and harder lockdowns, as if they were normal – or helpful.
But they rarely point out that no pandemic plan recommended mass business closures and restrictions on religious freedom, travel, or normal societal function before 2020, because removing these is expected to cause greater harm, and impinges greatly on fundamental human rights.

We never implemented any of these measures during the SARS, MERS or swine flu outbreaks of recent years. People attended places of worship, caught packed buses and trains, the young went clubbing and danced and sang and kissed.

The same was true for Tanzanians during this pandemic too.

And rightly so.

Most Tanzanians are young and not obese, and so are at very low risk from Covid-19.

President Magufuli received a lot of bad press for telling his countrymen to go to church at the start of the pandemic to ‘pray’ Covid away.

But mass gatherings would not be expected to put the vast majority of the Tanzanian population at significant risk.
Tens of thousands of sports fans went to stadiums in Florida and Texas recently, and there was no noted uptick in cases afterwards.

Of course, protecting the vulnerable from harm is important in any epidemic, and it’s difficult to say whether the mass prayer-a-thons were a good idea from a purely transmission standpoint, as they may have increased risk to older people early on in Tanzania’s outbreak.

Building so-called ‘herd immunity’ in young people rapidly through such gatherings would however be expected to exert a protective effect, if the vulnerable are well protected until such transmission-suppressing immunity is achieved.

The policy overall was probably far better for public health than strict lockdowns, which led to the first recessions in a quarter of a century in many African countries, as well as a reduction in treatment for major killers like malaria, tuberculous (TB) and HIV-Aids.
The virus that leads to Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, is likely to become endemic, and as herd immunity is reached through natural infection or through vaccination, severe disease and death will become increasingly uncommon.

Multiple studies have shown very limited impact of stricter lockdowns on Covid-19 mortality.

Therefore, one would expect Tanzania, like Sweden, Croatia, Belarus and other ‘non-lockdown’ countries, to have similar overall Covid-19 deaths and epidemic trajectories as comparable lockdown countries in the end.

The vehement criticism of President Magufuli in the media is therefore disappointing and highly ignorant. It does appear that Western journalists find it easier to smear leaders in African countries than European leaders. Sweden's leaders, for instance, have never been labelled 'Covid deniers'.

This is not new, but perhaps shows how much hypocrisy and prejudice persist in Western society.

Tanzania appears to have done better from a health point of view than most other low-income countries through this last year. While millions of Africans have been thrown into hunger and poverty, Tanzania has seen GDP rise throughout 2020.

Falls in GDP and general impoverishment are associated with increases in all-cause mortality.

This is particularly the case in sub-Saharan Africa, where food security is often a real problem and control of endemic diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis and HIV-Aids is fragile.

It is therefore highly likely that, in maintaining a well-functioning economy, he and his government were responsible for greatly reducing mortality. UNICEF estimate almost a quarter of a million additional child deaths in South Asia in 2020 due to the responses to Covid-19 there.

It is likely that similar tolls will be seen in sub-Saharan Africa but we would expect that Tanzania will now be relatively protected from this.

Let us hope, for Tanzanians’ sake, that this continues with his successor.

Western media may have had a good laugh at President Magufuli – and Tanzanians in general – for thinking they could ‘pray’ away a virus.

But, rhetoric aside, by refusing to lockdown, and by refusing to divert health resources away from malaria and TB to test people with no symptoms for a virus with a very low fatality rate, Magufuli was following an orthodox pandemic response.

He was also orthodox in his approach to human rights. Religious freedom was considered an important human right by most Western journalists only 18 months ago, and fear should not change fundamental human rights.

Honest journalists should acknowledge the benefits of Magufuli’s approach, however much it may contradict their current preferred world view.

Ridiculing religious observances that fall outside their experience, and denigrating public health science that they clearly don’t understand, is not good journalism.

It just highlights how ignorant they are.
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www.newsafrica.net

Magufuli’s Covid response saved thousands

Ex-WHO scientist Dr David Bell defends Tanzania's handling of Covid-19 and says President Magufuli saved thousands of lives by refusing to lockdown.
www.newsafrica.net www.newsafrica.net
 
Magufuli did all this with ignorance and arrogance. It is natural for Africans to guess rather than to rationalize. His guess was no doubt a stupid one. He forced the nation into what he was not sure of, it's a matter of luck that we're alive today! Anyway if Magufuli's decision was well informed, he would have died a hero, but remains an arrogant leader who dared to spend the lives of a entire nation on account of stupid guesses.
 
Ndiyo maana wanajeshi wanakufa kila siku ili wewe upone
 
mgaka12 said:
Dah Tanzania tumepoteza Rais tumebaki na kiongozi tu anaeongoza awamu ya sita lakini kwa akili na mawazo ya awamu ya 4 😢😢😢
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TOBAAA! we habu punguza makali ya maneno!
 
Hayati MAGUFULI atabaki mioyoni mwetu kama kiongozi MWENYE MAONO NA UTHUBUTU MKUU.....

*******************
Angeweka lockdowns,leo hii TAMISEMI isingetoa nafasi za KUAJIRI WALIMU 90,000 na KADA YA AFYA.......

Walimu watakaopata AJIRA wasilisahau hilo......

May the life of the late JPM be a blessing amen🙏

#KaziIendelee
 
Kwani vifo
Bepari2020 said:
Kama takwimu za COVID hazikutolewa, huyo mchambuzi anajuaje wangapi walikufa au hawakufa na COVID?
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Kwani vifo vinajificha?
Nenda india uone kama utaficha kifo
Watu wanapangwa kama samaki kwenye chanja.
 
fazili said:
Magufuli did all this with ignorance and arrogance. It is natural for Africans to guess rather than to rationalize. His guess was no doubt a stupid one. He forced the nation into what he was not sure of, it's a matter of luck that we're alive today! Anyway if Magufuli's decision was well informed, he would have died a hero, but remains an arrogant leader who dared to spend the lives of a entire nation on account of stupid guesses.
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Nothing comes by luck but through grace & plans of God, what he did was intended and through it millions were saved! You should use that energy to criticize other leaders who exercised lockdown and still failed rather than criticising someone whose action saved a nation.
 
SN.BARRY said:
Kuna dada mmoja mlokole yupo Tegeta. Alikuwa anamsifia Magufuli kuwa kamaliza Corona Tanzania. Mwaka jana mwezi June/Julay mama yake na bibi yake walikufa kwa Corona. Walipishana siku mbili.

Hadi leo hataki kumsikia Magufuli.
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Mlokole gani au wa wapi huyo? Ni muhuni kama wengine tu
 
fazili said:
Magufuli did all this with ignorance and arrogance. It is natural for Africans to guess rather than to rationalize. His guess was no doubt a stupid one. He forced the nation into what he was not sure of, it's a matter of luck that we're alive today! Anyway if Magufuli's decision was well informed, he would have died a hero, but remains an arrogant leader who dared to spend the lives of a entire nation on account of stupid guesses.
Click to expand...
He is a hero to all sane human beings. He will remain a hero to people who value brave leaders. He was always able to defend what he thought was right to his nation.

He was not a coward that is why a learned white man kind of eulogize about his life even though two months have gone after his passing on.

He was not guessing, he knew science broadly not as a lay man like me and you. He knew that vaccines may not provide a lasting solution to this pandemic as it is globally preached.

He knew that corona will be here to stay.
 
Ila kuchapa watu lockdown na kuimpose night-time curfews huku ukiwa hufanyi research yoyote na unatulia tuli huku ukimsubiri mzungu akupe mbinu nyingine isingekuwa njia sahihi sana ya kudeal na COVID19 kwa context ya Tanzania na nchi nyingi za Africa
 
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