Pia ni ujinga karne. Bila kuwaza reli iliyopo leo iko tangu teknolojia ya zamani.Huu ni ujinga wa Karne..Huwa wanajenga kumnufaisha mjukuu gani?
Nyumba sio reli,reli inaenda na teknolojia ya wakati huo Ili ilete faida sio kusubiria ,ukisubiria teknolojia inapita inakuwa chuma chakavu.
[emoji107]SGR haikuwa na uharaka Sana kihivyo wakati pana mbadala wake tayari. Hakuna mizigo yeyeto nchini iliyokwama eti kisa Hakuna sgr. Hio pesa ya kujenga reli na kununua mabehewa ingepelekwa kwenye miundombinu ya kuwapa uwezo vijana wazalishe uchumi ungekua sana
Huyu ni Eric yule aliyechongelewa kwa Magu na Pasikali, sasa naona kaenda the citizen badala ya the economist .Hao Citizens ni sawa na Chadema
Wanasema watajenga Makao makuu siku wakiwa Chama Tawala!
Mawazo ya kimaskini kabisa
MZEE HAKUNA ALIYEMSHAURI ALIKUWA ANAANZISHA MIRADI YA KUTAFUTA SIFA BADALA YA TIJAHabari za leo,
Gazeti la The Citizen limeandika makala kuhoji busara iliyotumika kuamua kujenga SGR Wakati tafiti za Kitaalamu zinaonesha tutapata Hasara?
Kwa mujibu wa WB Ili reli ilete faida inatakiwa mzigo angalau Tani mil.55 wakati utafiti unaonyesha Hadi kufikia 2030 EAC yote itakuwa na uwezo wa kusafirisha Tani asilia 14 tuu ya mahitaji Ili upate faida..
Kwamba Kwa nini Magufuli na Serikali yake walichagua expensive option ambayo itakuwa ni liability Kwa Taifa miaka na miaka?
My take: Hivi kwa nini tusiwe tunawawajibisha watu wanaotoa hasara Taifa kwa maamuzi yao ya Hovyo?[emoji116]
=====
Trucks and tracks: Will Tanzania’s SGR ever work?
Charles Makakala
6-7 minutes
Summary
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
Tanzania continues to show strong commitment to its grand $14 billion, 1,800km standard gauge railway (SGR) project. According to recent reports, the government is pushing forward with the Tabora-Gitega and Isaka-Kigali phases, connecting the infrastructure with Burundi and Rwanda, respectively. This will, hopefully, make Tanzania a transportation hub for its many landlocked neighbours.
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
To start with, while economic and population growth, global supply chains, landlocked countries and mining investments all call for better and more reliable transport infrastructure, the SGR was not the right solution for Tanzania. Multiple reports have made this quite clear. There is no economic justification for SGR investment anywhere in East Africa at this point.
A 2013 World Bank report observed that an SGR project requires a volume of 55 million tonnes to be viable, while EAC railways are estimated to achieve only 14.4 million tonnes in total by 2030. With such requirements, given that Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) achieved not even a third of that, refurbishing the Central Railway at one third of the SGR cost would have sufficed, but the powers that be chose the most expensive option possible!
Neighbouring Kenya is paying dearly for its headstrong decision to ignore the fundamentals of railway economics. Ian Taylor, author of Kenya’s New Lunatic Express, observes that the Madaraka Express was generating a loss of $7.35 million every month in 2018, operating at less than 15 percent of its planned capacity. This is the fate that awaits Tanzania unless the government has something quite special up its sleeve.
But the long list of failed or failing public projects – TRC, UDA, BRT, TTCL, NHC, ATCL, Tanganyika Packers, etc – suggests that that is quite unlikely. While the government may pull off a project here or there, it lacks the track record of successfully running considerable operations in the medium and long term. To give the SGR a chance, the government needs to show a very high degree of resolve to address its future challenges.
Firstly, the SGR will have to pass the quality of service test. In the 1990s, when the road between Tanga and Moshi was rebuilt, people abandoned the railway services fast, and they were withdrawn. People have choices today. There are 86,000 lorries and 49,000 buses crisscrossing the nation every day. If TRC will approach this challenge as casually as it did in the past, we can as well conclude today that Tanzania’s SGR will be the most expensive white elephant in East African history.
Secondly, the DRC challenge. As it stands, even though over 90 percent of goods to or from Rwanda and Burundi pass through Dar es Salaam, they comprise less than one third of goods that pass through the port. Integration of the economic region around Tanganyika Lake might improve the situation. For example, the populous eastern provinces of the DRC of North and South Kivu, Katanga, Maniema and Ituri, which are resource-rich but are forced to depend on the unwieldy railway line to South Africa, could use a solid alternative line to Dar which could very likely cut transport times by up to 70 percent.
Thirdly, the marketing challenge. In the heyday of railway transportation in Africa, people often lacked viable transport alternatives, but today, all across sub-Saharan Africa, lorries dominate tracks even in cases where tracks have very clear cost advantages.
Statistics suggests that TRC is not competitive in the transportation of fertiliser, ores and minerals, cement, and oil, the kind of deals which successful operators thrive on. Similarly, even when ticket prices were half those of buses, people still preferred the convenience that buses offered. A laissez faire approach to the market will not persuade Tanzanians to use railway transport.
Finally, Dar es Salaam Port, which deserves its own discussion.
Generally speaking, railway is a nationally strategic resource. Unfortunately, Africans have been going about the railway business in the wrong way.
In the 1870s, only two decades after the introduction of railways, Indian mechanics began to manufacture locomotives which were better and cheaper than the British ones. Today, Indians are advising the British how to manage their railway networks. Similarly, in the 1930s’ South Africa, railways were pumping skilled craftsmen to the rest of the economy, leading to the industrialisation of South Africa. At its peak in the 1970s, South Africa Railways had 230,000 employees. Such is the potential of railways in economic transformation.
Pumping billions into a project will not bring such outcomes. There must be a paradigm shift without which the thousands of lorries will continue to damage roads, congestion will continue to cost the nation dearly and accidents will continue to cut short livesas hundreds of new vehicles hit the roads every day.
In this case, will the SGR ever work?
Given Tanzania’s track record, it is difficult to see anything beyond failure here. The most likely scenario is that the network will function well below expectations for years, incurring losses that the government will struggle to subsidise. As the situation worsens, TRC will start to cut corners in maintenance, making the infrastructure degrade faster, thus reducing the network speeds and reliability. Then clients will drop en masse going back to privately owned lorries and buses, leading to exactly where we started.
That’s the Tanzania we know and love, huh?
View attachment 2302965View attachment 2302966View attachment 2302967View attachment 2302968
Hakuna cha maana ulichoandika hapo zaidi ya ujinga wako..Ni mjinga tu anaweza kuhoji hilo.
1. Kuna malori kila siku hanafanya uharifu wa barabara kila siku. Hilo nayehoji haoni.
2. SGR Ikitumia hata saa 2 kwenda Moro. Nani mjinga ataenda na bus. Anayehoji haoni
3. Jam nyingi njiani sababu ninlori za mizigo inatoka bandari za Dar na Tanga. Anayehoji haoni
4. Ajali nyingi zinasabishwa na malori yanayotembea barabarani na mizigo kuitoa Dar
Ni ujinga unaoamini kuwa mizigo mizito na itasafiri kwa lori
Mwandishi, ukweli ni kwamba ukizungumzia sekta ya uchukuzi siku za usoni SGR haepukiki. Tukumbuke wazo hili lilianzia awamu ya nne. tofauti na awamu ya tano ni kuweka mfumo wa vichwa vya umeme badala ya dizeli. Reli itakapokamilika itakuwa a game changer.Habari za leo,
Gazeti la The Citizen limeandika makala kuhoji busara iliyotumika kuamua kujenga SGR Wakati tafiti za Kitaalamu zinaonesha tutapata Hasara?
Kwa mujibu wa WB Ili reli ilete faida inatakiwa mzigo angalau Tani mil.55 wakati utafiti unaonyesha Hadi kufikia 2030 EAC yote itakuwa na uwezo wa kusafirisha Tani asilia 14 tuu ya mahitaji Ili upate faida..
Kwamba Kwa nini Magufuli na Serikali yake walichagua expensive option ambayo itakuwa ni liability Kwa Taifa miaka na miaka?
My take: Hivi kwa nini tusiwe tunawawajibisha watu wanaotoa hasara Taifa kwa maamuzi yao ya Hovyo?👇
=====
Trucks and tracks: Will Tanzania’s SGR ever work?
Charles Makakala
6-7 minutes
Summary
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
Tanzania continues to show strong commitment to its grand $14 billion, 1,800km standard gauge railway (SGR) project. According to recent reports, the government is pushing forward with the Tabora-Gitega and Isaka-Kigali phases, connecting the infrastructure with Burundi and Rwanda, respectively. This will, hopefully, make Tanzania a transportation hub for its many landlocked neighbours.
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
To start with, while economic and population growth, global supply chains, landlocked countries and mining investments all call for better and more reliable transport infrastructure, the SGR was not the right solution for Tanzania. Multiple reports have made this quite clear. There is no economic justification for SGR investment anywhere in East Africa at this point.
A 2013 World Bank report observed that an SGR project requires a volume of 55 million tonnes to be viable, while EAC railways are estimated to achieve only 14.4 million tonnes in total by 2030. With such requirements, given that Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) achieved not even a third of that, refurbishing the Central Railway at one third of the SGR cost would have sufficed, but the powers that be chose the most expensive option possible!
Neighbouring Kenya is paying dearly for its headstrong decision to ignore the fundamentals of railway economics. Ian Taylor, author of Kenya’s New Lunatic Express, observes that the Madaraka Express was generating a loss of $7.35 million every month in 2018, operating at less than 15 percent of its planned capacity. This is the fate that awaits Tanzania unless the government has something quite special up its sleeve.
But the long list of failed or failing public projects – TRC, UDA, BRT, TTCL, NHC, ATCL, Tanganyika Packers, etc – suggests that that is quite unlikely. While the government may pull off a project here or there, it lacks the track record of successfully running considerable operations in the medium and long term. To give the SGR a chance, the government needs to show a very high degree of resolve to address its future challenges.
Firstly, the SGR will have to pass the quality of service test. In the 1990s, when the road between Tanga and Moshi was rebuilt, people abandoned the railway services fast, and they were withdrawn. People have choices today. There are 86,000 lorries and 49,000 buses crisscrossing the nation every day. If TRC will approach this challenge as casually as it did in the past, we can as well conclude today that Tanzania’s SGR will be the most expensive white elephant in East African history.
Secondly, the DRC challenge. As it stands, even though over 90 percent of goods to or from Rwanda and Burundi pass through Dar es Salaam, they comprise less than one third of goods that pass through the port. Integration of the economic region around Tanganyika Lake might improve the situation. For example, the populous eastern provinces of the DRC of North and South Kivu, Katanga, Maniema and Ituri, which are resource-rich but are forced to depend on the unwieldy railway line to South Africa, could use a solid alternative line to Dar which could very likely cut transport times by up to 70 percent.
Thirdly, the marketing challenge. In the heyday of railway transportation in Africa, people often lacked viable transport alternatives, but today, all across sub-Saharan Africa, lorries dominate tracks even in cases where tracks have very clear cost advantages.
Statistics suggests that TRC is not competitive in the transportation of fertiliser, ores and minerals, cement, and oil, the kind of deals which successful operators thrive on. Similarly, even when ticket prices were half those of buses, people still preferred the convenience that buses offered. A laissez faire approach to the market will not persuade Tanzanians to use railway transport.
Finally, Dar es Salaam Port, which deserves its own discussion.
Generally speaking, railway is a nationally strategic resource. Unfortunately, Africans have been going about the railway business in the wrong way.
In the 1870s, only two decades after the introduction of railways, Indian mechanics began to manufacture locomotives which were better and cheaper than the British ones. Today, Indians are advising the British how to manage their railway networks. Similarly, in the 1930s’ South Africa, railways were pumping skilled craftsmen to the rest of the economy, leading to the industrialisation of South Africa. At its peak in the 1970s, South Africa Railways had 230,000 employees. Such is the potential of railways in economic transformation.
Pumping billions into a project will not bring such outcomes. There must be a paradigm shift without which the thousands of lorries will continue to damage roads, congestion will continue to cost the nation dearly and accidents will continue to cut short livesas hundreds of new vehicles hit the roads every day.
In this case, will the SGR ever work?
Given Tanzania’s track record, it is difficult to see anything beyond failure here. The most likely scenario is that the network will function well below expectations for years, incurring losses that the government will struggle to subsidise. As the situation worsens, TRC will start to cut corners in maintenance, making the infrastructure degrade faster, thus reducing the network speeds and reliability. Then clients will drop en masse going back to privately owned lorries and buses, leading to exactly where we started.
That’s the Tanzania we know and love, huh?
View attachment 2302965View attachment 2302966View attachment 2302967View attachment 2302968
Hapana. Haitaleta hasara endapo tutatumia 'Token Accounting'. Token accounting ni mfumo wa uhasibu unaotumika for reporting purpose ya kwenye miradi ya umma ambapo depreciation rate, for reporting purpose is kept below 5% (even though the actual depr could be higher) for two reasons...Gazeti la The Citizen limeandika makala kuhoji busara iliyotumika kuamua kujenga SGR Wakati tafiti za Kitaalamu zinaonesha tutapata Hasara?
Hayo maelezo yako ya ajibu vipi hoja za wataalamu kama zilivyonukuliwa na The Citizen?Hapana. Haitaleta hasara endapo tutatumia 'Token Accounting'. Token accounting ni mfumo wa uhasibu unaotumika for reporting purpose ya kwenye miradi ya umma ambapo depreciation rate, for reporting purpose is kept below 5% (even though the actual depr could be higher) for two purpose.
1. To be able to set aside maintenance budget which is equivalent to depr (5%).
2. To enable public project to report profits if any...
Kama hujui uhasibu, huwezi elewa kama maelezo yangu yamejibu hoja au lah...Hayo maelezo yako ya ajibu vipi hoja za wataalamu kama zilivyonukuliwa na The Citizen?
Mpuuzi kaziniHabari za leo,
Gazeti la The Citizen limeandika makala kuhoji busara iliyotumika kuamua kujenga SGR Wakati tafiti za Kitaalamu zinaonesha tutapata Hasara?
Kwa mujibu wa WB Ili reli ilete faida inatakiwa mzigo angalau Tani mil.55 wakati utafiti unaonyesha Hadi kufikia 2030 EAC yote itakuwa na uwezo wa kusafirisha Tani asilia 14 tuu ya mahitaji Ili upate faida..
Kwamba Kwa nini Magufuli na Serikali yake walichagua expensive option ambayo itakuwa ni liability Kwa Taifa miaka na miaka?
My take: Hivi kwa nini tusiwe tunawawajibisha watu wanaotoa hasara Taifa kwa maamuzi yao ya Hovyo?👇
=====
Trucks and tracks: Will Tanzania’s SGR ever work?
Charles Makakala
6-7 minutes
Summary
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
Tanzania continues to show strong commitment to its grand $14 billion, 1,800km standard gauge railway (SGR) project. According to recent reports, the government is pushing forward with the Tabora-Gitega and Isaka-Kigali phases, connecting the infrastructure with Burundi and Rwanda, respectively. This will, hopefully, make Tanzania a transportation hub for its many landlocked neighbours.
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
To start with, while economic and population growth, global supply chains, landlocked countries and mining investments all call for better and more reliable transport infrastructure, the SGR was not the right solution for Tanzania. Multiple reports have made this quite clear. There is no economic justification for SGR investment anywhere in East Africa at this point.
A 2013 World Bank report observed that an SGR project requires a volume of 55 million tonnes to be viable, while EAC railways are estimated to achieve only 14.4 million tonnes in total by 2030. With such requirements, given that Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) achieved not even a third of that, refurbishing the Central Railway at one third of the SGR cost would have sufficed, but the powers that be chose the most expensive option possible!
Neighbouring Kenya is paying dearly for its headstrong decision to ignore the fundamentals of railway economics. Ian Taylor, author of Kenya’s New Lunatic Express, observes that the Madaraka Express was generating a loss of $7.35 million every month in 2018, operating at less than 15 percent of its planned capacity. This is the fate that awaits Tanzania unless the government has something quite special up its sleeve.
But the long list of failed or failing public projects – TRC, UDA, BRT, TTCL, NHC, ATCL, Tanganyika Packers, etc – suggests that that is quite unlikely. While the government may pull off a project here or there, it lacks the track record of successfully running considerable operations in the medium and long term. To give the SGR a chance, the government needs to show a very high degree of resolve to address its future challenges.
Firstly, the SGR will have to pass the quality of service test. In the 1990s, when the road between Tanga and Moshi was rebuilt, people abandoned the railway services fast, and they were withdrawn. People have choices today. There are 86,000 lorries and 49,000 buses crisscrossing the nation every day. If TRC will approach this challenge as casually as it did in the past, we can as well conclude today that Tanzania’s SGR will be the most expensive white elephant in East African history.
Secondly, the DRC challenge. As it stands, even though over 90 percent of goods to or from Rwanda and Burundi pass through Dar es Salaam, they comprise less than one third of goods that pass through the port. Integration of the economic region around Tanganyika Lake might improve the situation. For example, the populous eastern provinces of the DRC of North and South Kivu, Katanga, Maniema and Ituri, which are resource-rich but are forced to depend on the unwieldy railway line to South Africa, could use a solid alternative line to Dar which could very likely cut transport times by up to 70 percent.
Thirdly, the marketing challenge. In the heyday of railway transportation in Africa, people often lacked viable transport alternatives, but today, all across sub-Saharan Africa, lorries dominate tracks even in cases where tracks have very clear cost advantages.
Statistics suggests that TRC is not competitive in the transportation of fertiliser, ores and minerals, cement, and oil, the kind of deals which successful operators thrive on. Similarly, even when ticket prices were half those of buses, people still preferred the convenience that buses offered. A laissez faire approach to the market will not persuade Tanzanians to use railway transport.
Finally, Dar es Salaam Port, which deserves its own discussion.
Generally speaking, railway is a nationally strategic resource. Unfortunately, Africans have been going about the railway business in the wrong way.
In the 1870s, only two decades after the introduction of railways, Indian mechanics began to manufacture locomotives which were better and cheaper than the British ones. Today, Indians are advising the British how to manage their railway networks. Similarly, in the 1930s’ South Africa, railways were pumping skilled craftsmen to the rest of the economy, leading to the industrialisation of South Africa. At its peak in the 1970s, South Africa Railways had 230,000 employees. Such is the potential of railways in economic transformation.
Pumping billions into a project will not bring such outcomes. There must be a paradigm shift without which the thousands of lorries will continue to damage roads, congestion will continue to cost the nation dearly and accidents will continue to cut short livesas hundreds of new vehicles hit the roads every day.
In this case, will the SGR ever work?
Given Tanzania’s track record, it is difficult to see anything beyond failure here. The most likely scenario is that the network will function well below expectations for years, incurring losses that the government will struggle to subsidise. As the situation worsens, TRC will start to cut corners in maintenance, making the infrastructure degrade faster, thus reducing the network speeds and reliability. Then clients will drop en masse going back to privately owned lorries and buses, leading to exactly where we started.
That’s the Tanzania we know and love, huh?
View attachment 2302965
Vijana wazalishe uchumi?SGR haikuwa na uharaka Sana kihivyo wakati pana mbadala wake tayari. Hakuna mizigo yeyeto nchini iliyokwama eti kisa Hakuna sgr. Hio pesa ya kujenga reli na kununua mabehewa ingepelekwa kwenye miundombinu ya kuwapa uwezo vijana wazalishe uchumi ungekua sana
Inawezekana kwenye hii post tunayochangia,wewe ndo mjinga peke yakoKwani wanaojenga magorofa ya mabilioni ya pesa, unadhani hizo nyumba zinawanufaisha wao? Ni wajukuu ndio watakuja kula matunda.
Data za mabeberu zimelenga kukatisha tamaa ili tusijenge reli ya SGR. Huu ni uwekezaji wa muda mrefu uliolenga kusaidia taifa letu kwa mamia ya miaka mbele yetu. Ushauri wao ni sawa na ushauri wa mtu aliyejenga nyumba nzuri kwa wanaotaka kujenga nyumba!! Mara nyingi huwakatisha tamaa kwa kuwatajia mamilioni marefu yanayohitajika. Lakini wenye akili zao huanza mdogo mdogo na baada ya miaka kadhaa hufanikiwa kumalizia ujenzi na kumiliki jumba kubwa la hadhi. Wale wanaoogopa gharama wanazotishiwa nazo hubaki wakisumbuana na "mama mwenye nyumba" kwenye ulipaji wa kodi, au hujenga vibanda kama vibanda vya kuku.
Siku zote mabeberu watajitahidi kutukatisha tamaa kwenye miradi mikubwa ya maendeleo inayolenga kutukomboa kwa miaka mingi ijayo. Kwa mfano mradi wa Stigler's Gorge almaarufu kama bwawa la mwalimu Nyerere unaolenga kutufanya tujikomboe kabisa kwenye mahitaji ya umeme, umepigwa vita sana na mabeberu miaka nenda rudi wanaotaka waendelee kutupiga kwa kuwalipa capacity charges kwenye miradi ya kinyonyaji ya kufua umeme! Ndiyo maana walimchukia sana Magufuli kwa kukomaa na hiyo miradi miwili na namshukuru sana mama ameamua kuimalizia kwa gharama yoyote ile!. Tutafika tu hata kama ni kwa kuchelewa na hii ndiyo mikopo ambayo watoto wetu na wajukuu zetu watakapokuwa wanalipa mikopo hii wataelewa maana kuna kitu chenye tija wanachokiona!Lakini mikopo ya corona kama ni kwa kununulia chanjo au madawa watakuja walipe huku wanaona kuwa wazazi wao waliwauza!!
Hawa wataalamu wanaodai huu mradi wa SGR hauna faida watakuwa ni vibaraka wa mabeberu na wamenunuliwa kwa bei ya aibu ili tuendelee kuwategemea mabeberu hao huku wakitunyonya kama kupe!!! Watukome!
Ni adui wa uchumi huyu aliyeandika huo upuuzi tukipata hasara yeye kinamuuma nini?aache polojo zake hakuna mjinga wa kudanganywa ktk zama hiziHi i kipindi Mkoroni anajenga reli kati alikuwa na uwezo wa kusafirisha tani ngapi?
Kuwa na adabuInawezekana kwenye hii post tunayochangia,wewe ndo mjinga peke yako
WALIOSHAURI WAKO HAI, ALIYESHAURIWA KATANGULIA.Habari za leo,
Gazeti la The Citizen limeandika makala kuhoji busara iliyotumika kuamua kujenga SGR Wakati tafiti za Kitaalamu zinaonesha tutapata Hasara?
Kwa mujibu wa WB Ili reli ilete faida inatakiwa mzigo angalau Tani mil.55 wakati utafiti unaonyesha Hadi kufikia 2030 EAC yote itakuwa na uwezo wa kusafirisha Tani asilia 14 tuu ya mahitaji Ili upate faida..
Kwamba Kwa nini Magufuli na Serikali yake walichagua expensive option ambayo itakuwa ni liability Kwa Taifa miaka na miaka?
My take: Hivi kwa nini tusiwe tunawawajibisha watu wanaotoa hasara Taifa kwa maamuzi yao ya Hovyo?[emoji116]
=====
Trucks and tracks: Will Tanzania’s SGR ever work?
Charles Makakala
6-7 minutes
Summary
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
Tanzania continues to show strong commitment to its grand $14 billion, 1,800km standard gauge railway (SGR) project. According to recent reports, the government is pushing forward with the Tabora-Gitega and Isaka-Kigali phases, connecting the infrastructure with Burundi and Rwanda, respectively. This will, hopefully, make Tanzania a transportation hub for its many landlocked neighbours.
The government’s gung-ho approach to SGR is commendable. At this stage of the project, developing cold feet would make no sense. Nonetheless, much more needs to be done to ensure the SGR’s future commercial and economic viability.
To start with, while economic and population growth, global supply chains, landlocked countries and mining investments all call for better and more reliable transport infrastructure, the SGR was not the right solution for Tanzania. Multiple reports have made this quite clear. There is no economic justification for SGR investment anywhere in East Africa at this point.
A 2013 World Bank report observed that an SGR project requires a volume of 55 million tonnes to be viable, while EAC railways are estimated to achieve only 14.4 million tonnes in total by 2030. With such requirements, given that Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) achieved not even a third of that, refurbishing the Central Railway at one third of the SGR cost would have sufficed, but the powers that be chose the most expensive option possible!
Neighbouring Kenya is paying dearly for its headstrong decision to ignore the fundamentals of railway economics. Ian Taylor, author of Kenya’s New Lunatic Express, observes that the Madaraka Express was generating a loss of $7.35 million every month in 2018, operating at less than 15 percent of its planned capacity. This is the fate that awaits Tanzania unless the government has something quite special up its sleeve.
But the long list of failed or failing public projects – TRC, UDA, BRT, TTCL, NHC, ATCL, Tanganyika Packers, etc – suggests that that is quite unlikely. While the government may pull off a project here or there, it lacks the track record of successfully running considerable operations in the medium and long term. To give the SGR a chance, the government needs to show a very high degree of resolve to address its future challenges.
Firstly, the SGR will have to pass the quality of service test. In the 1990s, when the road between Tanga and Moshi was rebuilt, people abandoned the railway services fast, and they were withdrawn. People have choices today. There are 86,000 lorries and 49,000 buses crisscrossing the nation every day. If TRC will approach this challenge as casually as it did in the past, we can as well conclude today that Tanzania’s SGR will be the most expensive white elephant in East African history.
Secondly, the DRC challenge. As it stands, even though over 90 percent of goods to or from Rwanda and Burundi pass through Dar es Salaam, they comprise less than one third of goods that pass through the port. Integration of the economic region around Tanganyika Lake might improve the situation. For example, the populous eastern provinces of the DRC of North and South Kivu, Katanga, Maniema and Ituri, which are resource-rich but are forced to depend on the unwieldy railway line to South Africa, could use a solid alternative line to Dar which could very likely cut transport times by up to 70 percent.
Thirdly, the marketing challenge. In the heyday of railway transportation in Africa, people often lacked viable transport alternatives, but today, all across sub-Saharan Africa, lorries dominate tracks even in cases where tracks have very clear cost advantages.
Statistics suggests that TRC is not competitive in the transportation of fertiliser, ores and minerals, cement, and oil, the kind of deals which successful operators thrive on. Similarly, even when ticket prices were half those of buses, people still preferred the convenience that buses offered. A laissez faire approach to the market will not persuade Tanzanians to use railway transport.
Finally, Dar es Salaam Port, which deserves its own discussion.
Generally speaking, railway is a nationally strategic resource. Unfortunately, Africans have been going about the railway business in the wrong way.
In the 1870s, only two decades after the introduction of railways, Indian mechanics began to manufacture locomotives which were better and cheaper than the British ones. Today, Indians are advising the British how to manage their railway networks. Similarly, in the 1930s’ South Africa, railways were pumping skilled craftsmen to the rest of the economy, leading to the industrialisation of South Africa. At its peak in the 1970s, South Africa Railways had 230,000 employees. Such is the potential of railways in economic transformation.
Pumping billions into a project will not bring such outcomes. There must be a paradigm shift without which the thousands of lorries will continue to damage roads, congestion will continue to cost the nation dearly and accidents will continue to cut short livesas hundreds of new vehicles hit the roads every day.
In this case, will the SGR ever work?
Given Tanzania’s track record, it is difficult to see anything beyond failure here. The most likely scenario is that the network will function well below expectations for years, incurring losses that the government will struggle to subsidise. As the situation worsens, TRC will start to cut corners in maintenance, making the infrastructure degrade faster, thus reducing the network speeds and reliability. Then clients will drop en masse going back to privately owned lorries and buses, leading to exactly where we started.
That’s the Tanzania we know and love, huh?
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