Mlaleo
JF-Expert Member
- Oct 11, 2011
- 14,809
- 11,825
Serikali ya Iran ipo kwenye khofu endapo watajaribu kulipiza kisasi dhidi ya Israel baada ya kauli ya kibabe ya Netanyahu. vita inaweza kuwa kubwa na Tatizo la Israel huwalenga kwanza Viongozi na Iran haipo tayari kabisa kumpoteza Ayyatollah au aishi kwenye mapango na mahandaki kama mwenzake wa Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah.
Maamuzi yeyote ya Iran kulipiza kisasi dhidi ya Israeli, yote yana hatari - uchambuzi
uliofanyika Iran ipo njia panda baada ya shambulio la ubalozi wake uliofanywa na Nchi ya Israel: wanalipizaje kisasi bila ya kuzua hasira za Israel maana itakuwa piga ni kupige. Chaguzi wanalotakiwa kufanya ni pamoja na kuwatumia washirika wake au waendelee na mipango yao ya kutengeneza bomu la nyuklia jambo ambalo Israel akisia hukasirika sana. au Kulenga maslahi ya Israeli kuna uwezekano wanaweza fanya maamuzi hayo au kuacha yapite tu.
Iran inakabiliwa na mtafaruku kufuatia shambulio la Israel dhidi ya ubalozi wake nchini Syria: jinsi ya kulipiza kisasi bila kuzusha mzozo mpana ambao wachambuzi wa Mashariki ya Kati wanasema Tehran haionekani kutaka. MASAA 48 Yameisha!
Shambulio la Jumatatu, ambalo liliwaua majenerali wawili wa Iran na washauri watano wa kijeshi katika ubalozi wa Iran mjini Damascus, linakuja wakati Israel ikiharakisha kampeni ya muda mrefu dhidi ya Iran na makundi yenye silaha yanayounga mkono. Kiongozi Mkuu wa Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ameapa kulipiza kisasi.
Tehran ina chaguo. Inaweza kuwaachia washirika wake kwa vikosi vya Marekani, kuvitumia kuishambulia Israel moja kwa moja au kuimarisha mpango wake wa nyuklia, ambao Marekani na washirika wake kwa muda mrefu wametaka kuuimarisha.
Wakizungumza kwa masharti ya kutotajwa jina, maafisa wa Marekani wamesema wanaangalia kwa karibu kuona kama, kama ilivyokuwa siku za nyuma, washirika wanaoungwa mkono na Iran watashambulia vikosi vya Marekani vilivyoko Iraq na Syria baada ya shambulizi la Jumatatu la Israel.
Mashambulizi ya Iran yalikoma mwezi Februari baada ya Marekani kulipiza kisasi kwa mauaji ya wanajeshi watatu wa Marekani nchini Jordan kwa mashambulizi kadhaa ya anga dhidi ya maeneo ya Syria na Iraq yanayohusishwa na kikosi cha walinzi wa mapinduzi cha Iran na wanamgambo wanaoungwa mkono.
Maafisa wa Marekani wamesema bado hawajachukua taarifa za kijasusi zinazoashiria kuwa makundi yanayoungwa mkono na Iran yanatafuta kushambulia vikosi vya Marekani kufuatia shambulio la Jumatatu, ambalo vyombo vya habari vya Iran vilisema viliwaua wanachama wa IRGC, akiwemo Mohammad Reza Zahedi, jenerali wa kikosi cha jeshi la Iran.
Marekani siku ya Jumanne iliitahadharisha Tehran dhidi ya kushambulia vikosi vyake.
"Hatutasita kuwatetea wafanyakazi wetu na kurudia maonyo yetu ya awali kwa Iran na washirika wake kutotumia fursa ya hali hiyo... kuanza tena mashambulizi yao dhidi ya wafanyakazi wa Marekani," alisema Naibu Balozi wa Marekani katika Umoja wa Mataifa Robert Wood.
Kuepuka vita vya kila aina
Chanzo kimoja ambacho kinafuatilia suala hilo kwa makini na ambaye alizungumza kwa masharti ya kutotajwa jina alisema Iran inakabiliwa na hali ya kutaka kujibu ili kuzuia mashambulizi zaidi ya Israeli wakati wa kuepuka vita vya nje.
"Wamekabiliwa na shida hii ya kweli kwamba ikiwa watajibu, wanaweza kuwa wanakabiliana na mapambano, ambayo kwa wazi hawataki," alisema. "Wanajaribu kurekebisha vitendo vyao kwa njia ambayo inaonyesha kuwa wao ni msikivu lakini sio wa kuongezeka."
"Ikiwa hawatajibu katika kesi hii, itakuwa ishara kwamba kuzuia kwao ni Chui wa karatasi," aliongeza, akisema Iran inaweza kushambulia balozi za Israeli, au vituo vya Kiyahudi nje ya nchi.
Afisa huyo wa Marekani amesema kutokana na umuhimu wa shambulio hilo la Israel, Iran huenda ikalazimika kujibu kwa kushambulia maslahi ya Israel badala ya kuwafuatilia wanajeshi wa Marekani.
Elliott Abrams, mtaalamu wa masuala ya Mashariki ya Kati katika Baraza la Uhusiano wa Kigeni la Marekani, pia alisema anaamini Iran haitaki vita na Israel lakini inaweza kulenga maslahi ya Israel.
"Nadhani Iran haitaki vita vikubwa vya Israel na Hezbollah hivi sasa, kwa hivyo jibu lolote halitakuja kwa njia ya hatua kubwa ya Hezbollah," Abrams alisema, akimaanisha kundi la Lebanon linaloonekana kama wakala wa kijeshi mwenye nguvu zaidi wa Tehran.
"Kuna njia nyingi za kujibu... kwa mfano, kwa kujaribu kulipua ubalozi wa Israeli," aliongeza.
Iran pia inaweza kujibu kwa kuharakisha mpango wake wa nyuklia, ambao Tehran imeuimarisha tangu rais wa zamani wa Marekani Donald Trump mwaka 2018 alipoachana na makubaliano ya nyuklia ya Iran ya mwaka 2015 yaliyolenga kuizuia kwa ajili ya manufaa ya kiuchumi.
Lakini hatua mbili za kushangaza zaidi - kuongeza usafi wa uranium yake iliyorutubishwa hadi 90%, ambayo inachukuliwa kuwa daraja la bomu, au kufufua kazi ya kubuni silaha halisi - inaweza kurudi nyuma na kukaribisha mashambulizi ya Israeli au Marekani.
"Iwe moja ya hizo zitatazamwa na Israel na Marekani kama uamuzi wa kupata bomu. Hivyo... Kwa kweli wanachukua hatari kubwa. Je, wako tayari kufanya hivyo? Sikufikiria hivyo," kilisema chanzo hicho ambacho kinafuatilia suala hilo kwa karibu.
Jon Alterman, mkurugenzi wa mpango wa Mashariki ya Kati katika taasisi ya CSIS mjini Washington, alisema hatarajii majibu makubwa ya Iran kwa shambulio hilo dhidi ya ubalozi wake.
Iran faces a dilemma following an Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria: how to retaliate without sparking a broader conflict that Middle East analysts said Tehran doesn't appear to want.
Monday's strike, which killed two Iranian generals and five military advisers at Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, comes as Israel accelerates a long-running campaign against Iran and the armed groups it backs. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed revenge.
Tehran has options. It could unleash its proxies on US forces, use them to strike Israel directly or ramp up its nuclear program, which the United States and its allies have long sought to rein in.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, US officials said they were watching closely to see if, as in the past, Iran-backed proxies would attack US troops based in Iraq and Syria after Monday's Israeli strike.
Such Iranian attacks ceased in February after Washington retaliated for the killing of three US troops in Jordan with dozens of air strikes on targets in Syria and Iraq linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and militias it backs.
US officials said they had not yet picked up intelligence suggesting Iran-backed groups were looking to attack US troops following Monday's attack, which Iranian media said killed IRGC members, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a brigadier general.
The United States on Tuesday bluntly warned Tehran against attacking its forces.
"We will not hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation ... to resume their attacks on US personnel," said Deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood.
"They have faced this real dilemma that if they respond, they could be courting a confrontation, which they clearly don't want," he said. "They are trying to modulate their actions in a way that shows that they are responsive but not escalatory."
"If they don't respond in this case, it really would be a signal that their deterrence is a paper tiger," he added, saying Iran might attack Israel proper, Israeli embassies, or Jewish facilities abroad.
The US official said given the significance of the Israeli strike, Iran may be forced to respond by attacking Israeli interests rather than going after US troops.
Elliott Abrams, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations US think tank, also said he believed Iran did not want an all-out war with Israel but could target Israeli interests.
"I think Iran does not want a big Israel-Hezbollah war right now, so any response will not come in the form of a big Hezbollah action," Abrams said, referring to the Lebanese group seen as Tehran's most powerful military proxy.
"They have many other ways to respond ... for example, by trying to blow up an Israeli embassy," he added.
Iran could also respond by accelerating its nuclear program, which Tehran has ramped up since former US President Donald Trump in 2018 abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal designed to constrain it in return for economic benefits.
But the two most dramatic steps - increasing the purity of its enriched uranium to 90%, which is considered bomb-grade, or reviving work to design an actual weapon - could backfire and invite Israeli or US strikes.
"Either one of those would be viewed by Israel and by the US as a decision to acquire a bomb. So ... they are really taking a big risk. Are they ready to do it? I would not think so," said the source who tracks the issue closely.
Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the CSIS think tank in Washington, said he does not expect a massive Iranian response to the attack on its embassy.
Maamuzi yeyote ya Iran kulipiza kisasi dhidi ya Israeli, yote yana hatari - uchambuzi
uliofanyika Iran ipo njia panda baada ya shambulio la ubalozi wake uliofanywa na Nchi ya Israel: wanalipizaje kisasi bila ya kuzua hasira za Israel maana itakuwa piga ni kupige. Chaguzi wanalotakiwa kufanya ni pamoja na kuwatumia washirika wake au waendelee na mipango yao ya kutengeneza bomu la nyuklia jambo ambalo Israel akisia hukasirika sana. au Kulenga maslahi ya Israeli kuna uwezekano wanaweza fanya maamuzi hayo au kuacha yapite tu.
Iran inakabiliwa na mtafaruku kufuatia shambulio la Israel dhidi ya ubalozi wake nchini Syria: jinsi ya kulipiza kisasi bila kuzusha mzozo mpana ambao wachambuzi wa Mashariki ya Kati wanasema Tehran haionekani kutaka. MASAA 48 Yameisha!
Shambulio la Jumatatu, ambalo liliwaua majenerali wawili wa Iran na washauri watano wa kijeshi katika ubalozi wa Iran mjini Damascus, linakuja wakati Israel ikiharakisha kampeni ya muda mrefu dhidi ya Iran na makundi yenye silaha yanayounga mkono. Kiongozi Mkuu wa Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ameapa kulipiza kisasi.
Tehran ina chaguo. Inaweza kuwaachia washirika wake kwa vikosi vya Marekani, kuvitumia kuishambulia Israel moja kwa moja au kuimarisha mpango wake wa nyuklia, ambao Marekani na washirika wake kwa muda mrefu wametaka kuuimarisha.
Wakizungumza kwa masharti ya kutotajwa jina, maafisa wa Marekani wamesema wanaangalia kwa karibu kuona kama, kama ilivyokuwa siku za nyuma, washirika wanaoungwa mkono na Iran watashambulia vikosi vya Marekani vilivyoko Iraq na Syria baada ya shambulizi la Jumatatu la Israel.
Mashambulizi ya Iran yalikoma mwezi Februari baada ya Marekani kulipiza kisasi kwa mauaji ya wanajeshi watatu wa Marekani nchini Jordan kwa mashambulizi kadhaa ya anga dhidi ya maeneo ya Syria na Iraq yanayohusishwa na kikosi cha walinzi wa mapinduzi cha Iran na wanamgambo wanaoungwa mkono.
Maafisa wa Marekani wamesema bado hawajachukua taarifa za kijasusi zinazoashiria kuwa makundi yanayoungwa mkono na Iran yanatafuta kushambulia vikosi vya Marekani kufuatia shambulio la Jumatatu, ambalo vyombo vya habari vya Iran vilisema viliwaua wanachama wa IRGC, akiwemo Mohammad Reza Zahedi, jenerali wa kikosi cha jeshi la Iran.
Marekani siku ya Jumanne iliitahadharisha Tehran dhidi ya kushambulia vikosi vyake.
"Hatutasita kuwatetea wafanyakazi wetu na kurudia maonyo yetu ya awali kwa Iran na washirika wake kutotumia fursa ya hali hiyo... kuanza tena mashambulizi yao dhidi ya wafanyakazi wa Marekani," alisema Naibu Balozi wa Marekani katika Umoja wa Mataifa Robert Wood.
Kuepuka vita vya kila aina
Chanzo kimoja ambacho kinafuatilia suala hilo kwa makini na ambaye alizungumza kwa masharti ya kutotajwa jina alisema Iran inakabiliwa na hali ya kutaka kujibu ili kuzuia mashambulizi zaidi ya Israeli wakati wa kuepuka vita vya nje.
"Wamekabiliwa na shida hii ya kweli kwamba ikiwa watajibu, wanaweza kuwa wanakabiliana na mapambano, ambayo kwa wazi hawataki," alisema. "Wanajaribu kurekebisha vitendo vyao kwa njia ambayo inaonyesha kuwa wao ni msikivu lakini sio wa kuongezeka."
"Ikiwa hawatajibu katika kesi hii, itakuwa ishara kwamba kuzuia kwao ni Chui wa karatasi," aliongeza, akisema Iran inaweza kushambulia balozi za Israeli, au vituo vya Kiyahudi nje ya nchi.
Afisa huyo wa Marekani amesema kutokana na umuhimu wa shambulio hilo la Israel, Iran huenda ikalazimika kujibu kwa kushambulia maslahi ya Israel badala ya kuwafuatilia wanajeshi wa Marekani.
Elliott Abrams, mtaalamu wa masuala ya Mashariki ya Kati katika Baraza la Uhusiano wa Kigeni la Marekani, pia alisema anaamini Iran haitaki vita na Israel lakini inaweza kulenga maslahi ya Israel.
"Nadhani Iran haitaki vita vikubwa vya Israel na Hezbollah hivi sasa, kwa hivyo jibu lolote halitakuja kwa njia ya hatua kubwa ya Hezbollah," Abrams alisema, akimaanisha kundi la Lebanon linaloonekana kama wakala wa kijeshi mwenye nguvu zaidi wa Tehran.
"Kuna njia nyingi za kujibu... kwa mfano, kwa kujaribu kulipua ubalozi wa Israeli," aliongeza.
Iran pia inaweza kujibu kwa kuharakisha mpango wake wa nyuklia, ambao Tehran imeuimarisha tangu rais wa zamani wa Marekani Donald Trump mwaka 2018 alipoachana na makubaliano ya nyuklia ya Iran ya mwaka 2015 yaliyolenga kuizuia kwa ajili ya manufaa ya kiuchumi.
Lakini hatua mbili za kushangaza zaidi - kuongeza usafi wa uranium yake iliyorutubishwa hadi 90%, ambayo inachukuliwa kuwa daraja la bomu, au kufufua kazi ya kubuni silaha halisi - inaweza kurudi nyuma na kukaribisha mashambulizi ya Israeli au Marekani.
"Iwe moja ya hizo zitatazamwa na Israel na Marekani kama uamuzi wa kupata bomu. Hivyo... Kwa kweli wanachukua hatari kubwa. Je, wako tayari kufanya hivyo? Sikufikiria hivyo," kilisema chanzo hicho ambacho kinafuatilia suala hilo kwa karibu.
Jon Alterman, mkurugenzi wa mpango wa Mashariki ya Kati katika taasisi ya CSIS mjini Washington, alisema hatarajii majibu makubwa ya Iran kwa shambulio hilo dhidi ya ubalozi wake.
Many Iranian options to retaliate against Israel, but all carry risk - analysis
Iran faces dilemma post Israeli embassy attack: retaliate without escalation. Options include proxies or nuclear programs. Targeting Israeli interests is likely.
By REUTERSAPRIL 3, 2024 07:17Updated: APRIL 3, 2024 07:26-
I
Iran faces a dilemma following an Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria: how to retaliate without sparking a broader conflict that Middle East analysts said Tehran doesn't appear to want.
Monday's strike, which killed two Iranian generals and five military advisers at Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, comes as Israel accelerates a long-running campaign against Iran and the armed groups it backs. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed revenge.
Tehran has options. It could unleash its proxies on US forces, use them to strike Israel directly or ramp up its nuclear program, which the United States and its allies have long sought to rein in.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, US officials said they were watching closely to see if, as in the past, Iran-backed proxies would attack US troops based in Iraq and Syria after Monday's Israeli strike.
Such Iranian attacks ceased in February after Washington retaliated for the killing of three US troops in Jordan with dozens of air strikes on targets in Syria and Iraq linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and militias it backs.
US officials said they had not yet picked up intelligence suggesting Iran-backed groups were looking to attack US troops following Monday's attack, which Iranian media said killed IRGC members, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a brigadier general.
The United States on Tuesday bluntly warned Tehran against attacking its forces.
"We will not hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation ... to resume their attacks on US personnel," said Deputy US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood.
Avoiding an all-out war
One source who tracks the issue carefully and who spoke on condition of anonymity said Iran faced the conundrum of wanting to respond to deter further such Israeli strikes while avoiding an all-out war."They have faced this real dilemma that if they respond, they could be courting a confrontation, which they clearly don't want," he said. "They are trying to modulate their actions in a way that shows that they are responsive but not escalatory."
"If they don't respond in this case, it really would be a signal that their deterrence is a paper tiger," he added, saying Iran might attack Israel proper, Israeli embassies, or Jewish facilities abroad.
The US official said given the significance of the Israeli strike, Iran may be forced to respond by attacking Israeli interests rather than going after US troops.
Elliott Abrams, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations US think tank, also said he believed Iran did not want an all-out war with Israel but could target Israeli interests.
"I think Iran does not want a big Israel-Hezbollah war right now, so any response will not come in the form of a big Hezbollah action," Abrams said, referring to the Lebanese group seen as Tehran's most powerful military proxy.
"They have many other ways to respond ... for example, by trying to blow up an Israeli embassy," he added.
Iran could also respond by accelerating its nuclear program, which Tehran has ramped up since former US President Donald Trump in 2018 abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal designed to constrain it in return for economic benefits.
But the two most dramatic steps - increasing the purity of its enriched uranium to 90%, which is considered bomb-grade, or reviving work to design an actual weapon - could backfire and invite Israeli or US strikes.
"Either one of those would be viewed by Israel and by the US as a decision to acquire a bomb. So ... they are really taking a big risk. Are they ready to do it? I would not think so," said the source who tracks the issue closely.
Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the CSIS think tank in Washington, said he does not expect a massive Iranian response to the attack on its embassy.
