Sio lazima uandike neno faida, ukichambua ulivyoandika maana yake faida yake itapatikana baadae sana au faida ni ndogo sana kiasi kwamba tusiitegemee kuendesha nchi, kumbuka kuna migodi inamiaka zaidi ya 30.
Kwanini ufanye assumptions wakati takwimu zinapatikana kirahisi kabisa?!!
Moja ya posts zangu jana , nilitolea mfano wa Cardia Valley Gold Mine uliopo Australia ambako hatutarajii kuwe na upikwajii!! Cardia ni miongoni mwa migodi mikubwa kabisa duniani!!
Pamoja na kuwa miongoni mwa migodi mikubwa kabisa duniani, mwaka 2020 walizalisha 822 koz of gold, ambayo ni takribani Kilogram 23.4k. Kama dhahabu ile wangeuza jana, ingeingiza almost USD 1.4 Billion!
Now look, pamoja na bei ya dhahabu kuwa kubwa sana, bado mgodi mkubwa kama huo uliishia kuingiza GROSS Revenue of USD 1.4 Billion!! WHY?! Hapo ndipo linakuja suala la scarcity!
Anyway, watu wanaamini Magu kasimimamia vizuri suala la madini, na kwahiyo hakuna kupigwa!!! Sasa hapa chini ni taarifa ya Bariick Gold kwa mwaka 2020
Utaona hapo juu, 84% ya dhahabu iliyozalishwa na North Mara, Bulyanhulu na Buzwagi ni 261 koz, 44koz, and 84koz respectively. Na 100% ya hiyo production ni 311 kozi, 52 koz, and 100koz respectively.
Hapo bila shaka utaelewa kwanini nilisema Cardia ni mgodi mkubwa kabisa kwa sababu migodi yetu 3 total imezalisha 463koz (311+52+100) wakati Cardia peke yake imezalisha 822koz.
Sasa kabla hujatoa gharama yoyote, kwa bei ya leo (according to goldprice.org) dhahabu YOTE ilyozalishwa kwa migodi yetu 3 ni USD 820 Million>>> today's price is about $1770 per oz >>, 463koz = 463,000 oz
Ukiangalia second column in RED, utapata average cost of sales kwa hiyo migodi 3 ni USD 1171/ounce! Now look, wakati bei ni 1770/oz, cost of sales (yaani total cost) ni sawa na 1171/oz!! Hapo sasa, fanya mwenyewe hesabu za ON and OFF, kisha tafakari!!
And remember, hapo kama nchi katika USD 820 Million, tutakachopata ni kodi + 16%...
NARUDIA... acha kufanya assumption! Hakuna aliyesema HAKUNA FAIDA. Hoja yangu ni kwamba mna-OVERRATE sana madini!!! Na ukitaka kujua mna-overate sana, chukulia ile Gas Processing Plant ya pale Lindi ambayo ilikuwa ijengwe kwa USD 30 Billion!
I REPEAT, GAS PROCESSING PLANT peke yake ilikuwa ijengwe kwa USD 30 Billion!!
Kwa upande mwingine, Barrick Gold ndiyo kampuni kubwa kuliko zote ya uchimbaji dhahabu duniani!! Kama unavyoona kwenye hiyo screenshot hapo juu, wana migodi kibao duniani na mikubwa kuliko iliyopo Tanzania.
Kwenye hiyo screenshot, kuna migodi ya Nevada ambayo nimenyofoa kwenye screenshot ambayo kwa pamoja inazalisha 2131koz... linganisha na hiyo 463koz tunazozalisha sisi!!
Lakini pamoja na ukubwa wote huo wa Barrick Gold,
thamani yao ni hii hapa chini:-
What's Market Cap? Investopedia wanatusaidia kwa kutueleza kwamba:-
What Is Market Capitalization? Market capitalization refers to the total dollar market value of a company's outstanding shares of stock. Commonly referred to as "market cap," it is calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.
Kumbe pamoja na sifa zote nilizomwaga kwa Barrick Gold, shares ZOOOOOOOOTE thamani yake ni USD 33.2 Billion, almost karibu sawa na pesa inayotaka kujenga ONLY one Gas Processing Plant pale Lindi!!