Fighters Spotted Fleeing to Yemen
Somalia Report has learned that at least 10 rented skiffs have left from Qandala region in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, heading westward along the coast with the expected destination of an al-Qaeda held port in Yemen. Qandala is a popular transit point for human smugglers and a minor pirate base of operations.
The skiffs were reported to be have been refueled in Hafun, after which they continued their course north and then westwards along the tip of Somalia.
Local elders in Qandala believe the approximately 80 fighters to be enroute to Mulaax Beyle near Xiss in Sanaag, on the coast of the breakaway region of Somaliland. This would put the fleeing fighters a step away from their expected final destination of Zinjabar, Yemen, a port partially held by al-Qaeda militants.
Although it is yet unknown whether pirate networks in Qandala provided the militants with fuel or other supplies, it would be the first proven instance of a pirate organization giving direct support to terrorist elements.
Somalia Report received reports that al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda fighters had left the southern port of Marka earlier this week in just over a dozen small boats, sailing northwards along the coast. Although local skiffs can easily be fueled to transit the Gulf of Aden, the voyage would necessitate stopping to purchase fuel from local communities, where it would be difficult to disguise the identities of the passengers.
Under Pressure
Al-Shabaab is under significant pressure by Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF), Ethiopian, Ahlu Sunnah wal Jamaa (ASWJ), African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM), and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops, which have formed a loose semicircle arcing from Burgabo to Jowhar, a noose that is rapidly tightening. Resupply flights into the south and seaborne supplies into Kismayo have been blockaded by the KDF and tracked by foreign support elements that include US and French intelligence, as well as offshore navies.
An unknown number of wives and children of al-Shabaab fighters are making their own way northward by minibus, fleeing through Jowhar with an expected end destination of Odweyne in Toghdeer, in southern Somaliland. The 80 militants' westward movement to Somaliland may mean they either seek to link up with
Shiekh Mohamed Saeed Atam's al-Shabaab-affiliated forces in Galgala, or, alternatively, join up with their families.
Although al-Shabaab media and social media releases have touted the group's recent retreats as strategic withdrawals, there is no evidence that the strategy has resulted in appreciable gains, territorial or otherwise, against the combined TFG-allied forces. Although most attention has been paid to the fighting and terrorist attacks in the south, al-Shabaab has been busy strengthening its networks in the north,
as evidenced by the dramatic increase in Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and other attacks against Puntland government targets in recent months.
Additionally, pirate groups have been under pressure due to their continuing difficulties to seize vessels at sea,
a product of the increased use of armed security guards. While there is no proof that the boatmen ferrying the insurgents are directly linked to known pirate groups, an al-Shabaab-pirate connection would undoubtedly result in significant regional counter-terrorism resources and funding being redirected to target pirate organizations.
Al-Qaedas New Safe Haven
Yemens Abyan province and the town of Zinjabar were taken over by Islamic elements in May, and recaptured in September by Yemens 25th Mika, or Mechanized Brigade, which has been battling al-Qaeda element in the northern part of the town. The city is still hotly contested, with government forces continuing to struggle with the group of approximately 300 fighters known as Ansar al Sharia, which is comprised of Arabs who have fought in Afghanistan, as well as foreign nationals.
Zinjibar is the second city in Yemen that al-Qaeda fighters have occupied. The insurgent group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), made up of elements from Lawder and Modia, took over the city of Jaar in March. AQAP released "Communiqué Number 1" on March 29, 2011, declaring the area an Islamic Emirate and imposing a strict interpretation of sharia law.
These developments echo the May 30, 2007 incident in which, under pressure from Ethiopian and US Special Operations, a dozen fleeing Islamic and al-Qaeda fighters (including US Embassy bomber Fazul Abdullah Mohammed), fled from southern Somalia to Bargal in two fishing skiffs. They were pursued on June 1 by the destroyer USS Chafee, which shelled a seaward escarpment as the militants attempted to find refuge in nearby caves.