kudishauri
New Member
- Aug 30, 2017
- 1
- 11
Kenya's Constitution of 2010 may have fundamental mistake/flaw when it comes to the system of getting their President. The fact is Kenya never had Presidential Elections by mass suffrage before. From 1963 up to 2010 the President was the leader of the Party with the majority MPs in Parliament and was never elected by direct voting of the masses. That applied to Jomo Kenyatta [then MP for Gatundu], Danieli Arap Moi [then MP for Kabarak] and Mwai Kibaki [then MP for Othaya]. After the debacle in the 2007 elections the new constitution was approved and for the first time the masses had to vote for Presidential candidates in 2013. Thus Presidential elections moved from being a parliamentary affair to one involving the masses.
Tribal politics, involving the masses, was therefore moved up to the national level for the first time in 2013. A Kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance of Uhuru/Ruto won that election against a Luo/Other tribes alliance of Raila/Kalonzo et al. Previously the President was selected by MPs/Party Leaders but the masses were never directly involved - in this way there was less heat nationally during the Presidential Elections and the masses were content at electing directly only their MP. Kenyan should therefore consider going back to the Parliamentary system of getting their President [e.g. like Britain with their Prime-minister] and avoid this direct Presidential voting system like the USA. While there was some heated debate and rigging in electing MPs however various innovations were used including the MLOLONGO system of voting.
On the other hand Tanzania has always had a Presidential election by the masses. The first election in 1962 was between Julius Nyerere of TANU and Zuberi Mtemvu of the African National Congress of Tanganyika. Nyerere/TANU won by 98% of the votes cast. In 1965 the one Party Consitution had been approved and this still retained a system of Presidential elections at the national level where the ruling party presented one candidate and the masses had to vote for him /her by indicating YES/NO. The Presidential elections in 1965, 1970, 1975 & 1980 were all through this system and Nyerere won all of them even though his majority of YES vote progressively declined to 92% by 1980. In 1985 and 1990 Ali Hassan Mwinyi was voted in as President with Yes majorities of around 80%. In 1995 Tanzania abandoned the one party system and multi party elections were held for the second tome in 1995 - the contest then was mainly between Mkapa of CCM and Mrema of NCCR. Mkapa won by a majority of about 60% and again in 2000 he did the same. In 2005 the contest was between Kikwete and an assortment of candidates from opposition parties which Kikwete easily won with 80% majority. However, during the 2010 elections Kikwete faced stiff opposition from the Father Wilbad Slaa of CHADEMA and his majority was reduced to around 60%. In 2015 the contest was between Dr. John Pombe Magufuli of CCM and Edward Lowasa of CHADEMA and again the majority for CCM was about 60%.
It is important to note that the 130 tribes in Tanzania are each quite small while in Kenya there are essentially 5 major tribes and the Presidential contests have tended to involve some hegemonic tribal horse trading. In 1963 it was a Kikuyu/Luo hegemony led by [Kenyatta/Oginga/Tom Mboya] against a Kalenjin/Kamba/Other tribes alliance led by Ronald Ngala/Moi/Ngei; in mid 1960s & 70s it was a Kikuyu/Kalenjin hegemony led by Kenyatta/Moi with the banned opposition being largely under Oginga. Subsequently the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hegemony became more of a Kalenjin hegemony until 2002 when NARC alliance won the elections with a clear Kikuyu/Luo alliance of Kibaki/Raila [with Kibaki Tosha slogan by Raila]. By 2007 the Kikuyu /Luo alliance had disintegrated and the election between Kibaki leading a kikuyu/kamba alliance and Raila Odinga & Ruto leading a Luo/Kalenjin alliance led to riots and over 1500 deaths. In 2013, under the new constitution for the first time, it was a contest between a Kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance led by Kenyatta and Ruto against a Luo/other tribes alliance led by Raila Odinga/Kalonzo.
This year it is a Kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance led by Uhuru/Ruto against a Luo/Kamba/Luhya alliance led by Raila/Kalonzo/Mudavadi.
Thus the presidential election system may not work well in such a system as in Kenya where tribal hegemonies are so dominant. Indeed, even in South Africa the mass voting is still for members of Parliament and the leader of the Party with the highest number of MPs provides the President. The crucial election in this regard is therefore for the Party leader as it is currently going on in the ANC between Ramaphosa/Madame Zuma/Mkhize. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Angola and Zambia follow a system similar to the one in Tanzania. Uganda was initially on the Parliamentary system until the 1996 constitution when under Museveni they adopted a system similar to the one in Tanzania. Botswana which has always had multiparty elections follows the parliamentary system and current Vice President Mr. Masisi is already the leader of the BDP Party and is scheduled to become President next year when Gen. Ian Khama retires.
The fact that there is less heat on the county and parliamentary elections cf. the Presidential one is indicative of the problem.
Tribal politics, involving the masses, was therefore moved up to the national level for the first time in 2013. A Kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance of Uhuru/Ruto won that election against a Luo/Other tribes alliance of Raila/Kalonzo et al. Previously the President was selected by MPs/Party Leaders but the masses were never directly involved - in this way there was less heat nationally during the Presidential Elections and the masses were content at electing directly only their MP. Kenyan should therefore consider going back to the Parliamentary system of getting their President [e.g. like Britain with their Prime-minister] and avoid this direct Presidential voting system like the USA. While there was some heated debate and rigging in electing MPs however various innovations were used including the MLOLONGO system of voting.
On the other hand Tanzania has always had a Presidential election by the masses. The first election in 1962 was between Julius Nyerere of TANU and Zuberi Mtemvu of the African National Congress of Tanganyika. Nyerere/TANU won by 98% of the votes cast. In 1965 the one Party Consitution had been approved and this still retained a system of Presidential elections at the national level where the ruling party presented one candidate and the masses had to vote for him /her by indicating YES/NO. The Presidential elections in 1965, 1970, 1975 & 1980 were all through this system and Nyerere won all of them even though his majority of YES vote progressively declined to 92% by 1980. In 1985 and 1990 Ali Hassan Mwinyi was voted in as President with Yes majorities of around 80%. In 1995 Tanzania abandoned the one party system and multi party elections were held for the second tome in 1995 - the contest then was mainly between Mkapa of CCM and Mrema of NCCR. Mkapa won by a majority of about 60% and again in 2000 he did the same. In 2005 the contest was between Kikwete and an assortment of candidates from opposition parties which Kikwete easily won with 80% majority. However, during the 2010 elections Kikwete faced stiff opposition from the Father Wilbad Slaa of CHADEMA and his majority was reduced to around 60%. In 2015 the contest was between Dr. John Pombe Magufuli of CCM and Edward Lowasa of CHADEMA and again the majority for CCM was about 60%.
It is important to note that the 130 tribes in Tanzania are each quite small while in Kenya there are essentially 5 major tribes and the Presidential contests have tended to involve some hegemonic tribal horse trading. In 1963 it was a Kikuyu/Luo hegemony led by [Kenyatta/Oginga/Tom Mboya] against a Kalenjin/Kamba/Other tribes alliance led by Ronald Ngala/Moi/Ngei; in mid 1960s & 70s it was a Kikuyu/Kalenjin hegemony led by Kenyatta/Moi with the banned opposition being largely under Oginga. Subsequently the Kikuyu/Kalenjin hegemony became more of a Kalenjin hegemony until 2002 when NARC alliance won the elections with a clear Kikuyu/Luo alliance of Kibaki/Raila [with Kibaki Tosha slogan by Raila]. By 2007 the Kikuyu /Luo alliance had disintegrated and the election between Kibaki leading a kikuyu/kamba alliance and Raila Odinga & Ruto leading a Luo/Kalenjin alliance led to riots and over 1500 deaths. In 2013, under the new constitution for the first time, it was a contest between a Kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance led by Kenyatta and Ruto against a Luo/other tribes alliance led by Raila Odinga/Kalonzo.
This year it is a Kikuyu/Kalenjin alliance led by Uhuru/Ruto against a Luo/Kamba/Luhya alliance led by Raila/Kalonzo/Mudavadi.
Thus the presidential election system may not work well in such a system as in Kenya where tribal hegemonies are so dominant. Indeed, even in South Africa the mass voting is still for members of Parliament and the leader of the Party with the highest number of MPs provides the President. The crucial election in this regard is therefore for the Party leader as it is currently going on in the ANC between Ramaphosa/Madame Zuma/Mkhize. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Angola and Zambia follow a system similar to the one in Tanzania. Uganda was initially on the Parliamentary system until the 1996 constitution when under Museveni they adopted a system similar to the one in Tanzania. Botswana which has always had multiparty elections follows the parliamentary system and current Vice President Mr. Masisi is already the leader of the BDP Party and is scheduled to become President next year when Gen. Ian Khama retires.
The fact that there is less heat on the county and parliamentary elections cf. the Presidential one is indicative of the problem.
