Tetesi: Kenya Shilling over valued by 17.5% - IMF says

Tetesi: Kenya Shilling over valued by 17.5% - IMF says

kennedy0000 said:
Ghana is not a problem to you.
The problem is why a big country like Tanzania is performing so poorly economically that every other country is overtaking it.
Click to expand...
Ghana haijaizidi Tz
 
kennedy0000 said:
You screenshot the screen, not the phone.

Go see your total imports and compare with Kenya's here-

OEC - Kenya (KEN) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners
OEC - Tanzania (TZA) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners

Our total imports are $15.8 B, yours are $8.7 B. Majority is petroleum, cars and electronics.

Eg. in 2016,
Kenya imported $443 million worth of cars.
Tanzania imported $196 million worth of cars.

Tanzania is an LDC. A walking nation which cannot afford automobiles.
It's a miracle your GDP is more than $20 billion
Click to expand...
Sielewi mazee sisi kwetu Kenya imported more than Exported. So are safe economically?
 
Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:
Zero..Despite not having economics knowledge, you dont know how to Google.
Its an open secret why Kenya is over valuing its Currency.."Dollar Denominated" Debt..
Should the ksh drop by 17.5%, Intrest payable in $ as well as principal immediately rises by 17.5%..
IMF is not stupid, they know whats going on and who is trying to hide their nakedness..Fortunately you cant cheat the system for long..You will run out of borrowed $$ for proping up the currency, and thats why IMF degraded the credit worthness of kenya..Its only going to be more expensive to borrow $ meant for hinding the bare nakedness
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BTW you have missed the whole point of this article that you brought..... It seems you did not understand its intended meaning and you ended up making up your own conclusion........ This one sentence explains it all
qoute:
"The shilling risked being classified as “managed” rather than operating on the forces of demand and supply.
endquote:

If Kenya had the capability to cheat the world about the value of its currency, That would mean we have great mathematicians.... and dont you think all the other advanced economies would be able to do it even better....

I will not claim to know economics, so I will quote google...

What is a 'Managed Currency'

A managed currency is one whose price and exchange rate are influenced by some intervention from a central bank. Currency is a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. A central bank or monetary authority is a managed and often nationalized institution given free control over the production and distribution of the money and credit for a country.

Read more: Managed Currency Managed Currency




The reason why KES has remained at 1USD = 100KES for such a long period of time despite negative external market forces is because CBK has continuously intervened to stabilize the shilling by pumping in $$$ from the dollar denominated foreign exchange reserved like in this case https://www.businessdailyafrica.com...se-shilling/539552-3280494-myrr12z/index.html


What IMF is saying in that article is that CBK should let the shilling vs Dollar be defined by pure market forces of demand and supply, if it depreciates to 200 per dollar, just let it be... (Considering what the US did to turkeys currency just the other day, I will not recommend it) ........
So basically what IMF is saying is that if CBK had not intervened to stabilize the shilling, then the shilling would be 17% less its current value...




But considering that more emerging economies around the world are adopting a managed exchange rate, I don't think there will be any negative effects if GoK/CBK maintained the current system of making sure the shilling never goes beyond 105 to the dollar..... because as you rightly put it, we have debts to pay + interests


IMF finds more countries adopting managed floating exchange rate system

TOKYO -- More countries are adopting a managed floating exchange rate system, especially as a number of emerging countries try to safeguard their currencies from increased volatility in foreign exchange markets triggered by monetary easing measures from advanced countries.
In 2013, 82 countries and regions used the system, or 43% of all countries. This was up from 35% in 2009. This means more countries now use this system than do the floating exchange mechanism, according to a survey of 191 countries and regions by the International Monetary Fund.
The managed floating system is equivalent to a middle ground between the floating system and the fixed system. China has adopted the managed floating mechanism, thereby limiting its currency moves to a certain range.

The survey found that 65 of countries and regions, including industrialized nations such as Japan, the U.S. and many European countries, use the floating system, representing 34% of the total. This is down from the 2009 peak of 42%, or 79 countries and regions.

A total of 25 countries and regions, including Hong Kong, use a fixed exchange rate system, in which their currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, according to the IMF.

In 2012, Georgia, Papua New Guinea and several other countries switched to the managed floating system from the floating one. The IMF effectively categorizes Argentina under the managed floating system as it has conducted heavy currency interventions in recent years.

Under the floating system, small economies are often subject to wild exchange rate swings due to a large influx and outflow of surplus money caused by monetary easing.

IMF finds more countries adopting managed floating exchange rate system
 
kennedy0000 said:
Also, the less you import the less your purchasing power. Tumia logic.
If the reason you are not importing cars is because you manufacture them, we can understand. But for you, the reason you are not importing cars is because you cannot afford them. Plain and simple.

And for your info., these major powers are also net importers, just like Kenya.

USA
UK
Canada
France
India
UAE
Netherlands
Spain
Portugal
Ukraine
Denmark

Apart from China, Japan, Germany and a few others you find only the oil producers exporting more than they import.

Countries strive to export more, not import less.
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A car is a liability, hamna la kujivunia hapo.
 
Kafrican said:
BTW you have missed the whole point of this article that you brought..... It seems you did not understand its intended meaning and you ended up making up your own conclusion........ This one sentence explains it all
qoute:
"The shilling risked being classified as “managed” rather than operating on the forces of demand and supply.
endquote:

If Kenya had the capability to cheat the world about the value of its currency, That would mean we have great mathematicians.... and dont you think all the other advanced economies would be able to do it even better....

I will not claim to know economics, so I will quote google...

What is a 'Managed Currency'

A managed currency is one whose price and exchange rate are influenced by some intervention from a central bank. Currency is a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. A central bank or monetary authority is a managed and often nationalized institution given free control over the production and distribution of the money and credit for a country.

Read more: Managed Currency Managed Currency




The reason why KES has remained at 1USD = 100KES for such a long period of time despite negative external market forces is because CBK has continuously intervened to stabilize the shilling by pumping in $$$ from the dollar denominated foreign exchange reserved like in this case Forex reserves dip by Sh28bn as CBK fights to stabilise shilling


What IMF is saying in that article is that CBK should let the shilling vs Dollar be defined by pure market forces of demand and supply, if it depreciates to 200 per dollar, just let it be... (Considering what the US did to turkeys currency just the other day, I will not recommend it) ........
So basically what IMF is saying is that if CBK had not intervened to stabilize the shilling, then the shilling would be 17% less its current value...




But considering that more emerging economies around the world are adopting a managed exchange rate, I don't think there will be any negative effects if GoK/CBK maintained the current system of making sure the shilling never goes beyond 105 to the dollar..... because as you rightly put it, we have debts to pay + interests


IMF finds more countries adopting managed floating exchange rate system

TOKYO -- More countries are adopting a managed floating exchange rate system, especially as a number of emerging countries try to safeguard their currencies from increased volatility in foreign exchange markets triggered by monetary easing measures from advanced countries.
In 2013, 82 countries and regions used the system, or 43% of all countries. This was up from 35% in 2009. This means more countries now use this system than do the floating exchange mechanism, according to a survey of 191 countries and regions by the International Monetary Fund.
The managed floating system is equivalent to a middle ground between the floating system and the fixed system. China has adopted the managed floating mechanism, thereby limiting its currency moves to a certain range.

The survey found that 65 of countries and regions, including industrialized nations such as Japan, the U.S. and many European countries, use the floating system, representing 34% of the total. This is down from the 2009 peak of 42%, or 79 countries and regions.

A total of 25 countries and regions, including Hong Kong, use a fixed exchange rate system, in which their currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, according to the IMF.

In 2012, Georgia, Papua New Guinea and several other countries switched to the managed floating system from the floating one. The IMF effectively categorizes Argentina under the managed floating system as it has conducted heavy currency interventions in recent years.

Under the floating system, small economies are often subject to wild exchange rate swings due to a large influx and outflow of surplus money caused by monetary easing.

IMF finds more countries adopting managed floating exchange rate system
Click to expand...
Stop being silly..Who doesnt know that china devalues its currency? Is this even news?
The FACTS are that kenya's currency is manupulated by CBK and is over valued by 17.5% The effects of over valuation on GDP, Debt and so on are what is on discussion not wherether or not countries manupulate their currency.. By the way, TZ is also doing a chinese thing on their currecy and using import substitution as cover from IMF analysts
 
Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:
Then that means you are a rabbit head. You dont understand how ForeX affects debt and debt repayments. You just use google to flash out useless figures that you dont comprehend..Like your favourite Number of millionares in kenya 😀 SMH
Click to expand...
man you are so confused you dont even know what you are replying to......

This is what You said in comment #2
Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:
For those who know economics, lets evaluate the true value of kenya GDP
100%-17.5% = 82.5%
GDP Current prices 2017 was $74bn
Now GDP Current prices 2017 with currency over valuation removed (82.5% of $74bn) = $61.5bn.
And when you apply this to GNI and GDP per Capita, Kenya enters the league of LDC.

NB: Dont argue here with propaganda and usual jubilee tribalism. The IMF has SPOKEN
Click to expand...


You did your cheap calculations of the effects of the depreciation on the GDP, and that comment is what I replied to..... Then in your next reply you had jumped from the GDP calculation to debts and interest rates!!!!! when my comment was talking about your calculations on GDP ....
Who is the rabbit head here???
 
kennedy0000 said:
Wewe unajua kusoma kweli?
Who has said you depreciated to $25?

You were $31 in 2010. You grew to $52 in 2017.

Gap between Kenya and Tanzania is the one that expanded to $25.
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Wewe endelea kujipea moyo. Gdp ya Tz is so much closer to yours, we're closing the gap, wait results za imf.
 
Mwanzi1 said:
Kwani mlikuwa hamna masoko ya bidhaa za Kenya nje?, FDI iliyokua inakuja Kenya in 70's, 80's hata 90's ilikuwa sawa na iliyokuwa unakuja Tanzania?
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Hiyo miaka unayoitaja unajua 1KES ilikuwa ni tzshs ngapi? Ama ni chorus zako za kawaida tu ndio unaimba?
 
Omulasil said:
Sielewi mazee sisi kwetu Kenya imported more than Exported. So are safe economically?
Click to expand...

It's not ideal but it's inevitable. Most countries in the world import more than they export.
Even USA, UK and France.
 
Omulasil said:
Sielewi mazee sisi kwetu Kenya imported more than Exported. So are safe economically?
Click to expand...
Same question i was asking😂😂😂 Jamaa anajisifia imports😂😂😂 He doesnt know how it affects the economy...Akili ndogo inataka kutawala akili kubwa😂😂😂
 
Mwanzi1 said:
The same cars Quest is frying you with. You import with someone else money not yours. Your living on expensive credit card, if you want to know how rich your are, payback your credit card bill first.
Click to expand...

Big fool. Is it that Tanzania doesn't have banks to lend you money?
The fact is even your banks are poor. Your top bank in terms of revenue and profit wouldn't be ranked top 10 in Kenya.

Everything about your economy is LDC.
 
Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:
Stop being silly..Who doesnt know that china devalues its currency? Is this even news?
The FACTS are that kenya's currency is manupulated by CBK and is over valued by 17.5% The effects of over valuation on GDP, Debt and so on are what is on discussion not wherether or not countries manupulate their currency.. By the way, TZ is also doing a chinese thing on their currecy and using import substitution as cover from IMF analysts
Click to expand...
Therefore, means that Tz is also manipulating her currency by BoT for her own reasons just like Kenya !!!!


IMF is telling GoK, either stop intervening to stabilize your currency or we remove you from the list of countries that used floating currency mechanism and put you in the list of countries that use Managed floating mechanism like China or Tz.....

case closed!!!!!
 
Kafrican said:
Therefore, means that Tz is also manipulating her currency by BoT for her own reasons just like Kenya !!!!


IMF is telling GoK, either stop intervening to stabilize your currency or we remove you from the list of countries that used floating currency mechanism and put you in the list of countries that use Managed floating mechanism like China or Tz.....

case closed!!!!!
Click to expand...
"EFFECTS" Try and keep atleast one eye opened coz you are asleep in class
 
kennedy0000 said:
It's not ideal but it's inevitable. Most countries in the world import more than they export.
Even USA, UK and France.
Click to expand...
Wewe ndio hujuwi kabisa, uliza USA UK na France wana export nini?, na je, trade deficits yao ni kubwa sana au ndigo. Huwezi kilinganisha na Kenya where trade deficit is out of control plus huge debt burden.

Nchi kama USA now days they export more oil than any major OPEC countries. Let alone food, paper product and aviation to name the few. UK France the same.
 
Mkikuyu- Akili timamu said:
"EFFECTS" Try and keep atleast one eye opened coz you are asleep in class
Click to expand...
You have lost your argument..... Nothing will be happening, IMF cannot change what has already happened, hata hio 17% its just on paper based on historical data, if CBK heeded IMFs call and stopped intervening today, the exchange rate will still be the same as it was yesterday, anything that happens after that will now depend on pure market forces.... But GoK will never do that, because the current system works in GoK's favor more than the other system
 
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