Ndugai political career hanging on a cliffhanger?
No fan of Ndugai must confess but feels he is hard done by. Though his real blunder is stitching up mobile phone transaction taxes with our ability to reduce borrowing overdependence but his political enemies within CCM sense an opportunity to bring him down. And, they will prosper.
Ndugai did not directly oppose the president but was indirectly defending her from a political backlash stirred by new taxes on money transfers...you must strenuously overlook the intonation of his incendiary remarks if you are to contextualize this disposition.
So why is CCM not rewarding him for defending the government when it is unpopular to do so but he is being censured by CCM minions despite taking such a huge political risk? There are red flags everywhere he is being hounded out of office, and whatever he does from now onwards will be interpreted as a quisling clutching a straw.
The answer to this altercation is closer home than most may think.
We believe the succession politics of Mwendazake were anything but a walk in the park. We also surmise there were concerted efforts to block madam president from ascending to the throne, and Ndugai could have been a key linchpin to that unconstitutional onslaught.
Where do we pick these vibrations?
During Mwendazake funeral, there were words said which led us to conclude that power transfer was not a smooth sailing when a top four star general retorted something like this;
"Sisi hatumsikilizi mtu bali tunafuata katiba inasema nini. Vinginevyo, itakuwa vurugu...."
Most listeners did not take these dictums serious but we did, and now we are in position to state Ndugai is reaping from what he sow: over-ambition did him in. Just a byproduct of adding two and two to get three, four and sometimes more than what we bargained for is how we chronicle these developments.
We can speculate he perceived himself as the second most senior in the government after Mwendazake so he ought to have succeeded him regardless of clear constitutional imperatives. His current defence that he is being targeted because of his tribe holds no water, at all, but it is a forlorn attempt to obfuscate the real political undertow beneath his own games of survival and relevance. Nobody cares about your ethnicity anymore but your deeds account for everything we judge you. If being a gogo is really an hindrance how did you scale the political heights to where you are today. Kweli akutukanaye hakuchagulii tusi. This is how Ndugai is repaying us by accusing us of tribalism regardless of the favours we showered him day in day out despite his totem. Never take us for suckers who can swirl anything you serve, we must sternly caution him. His pride and arrogance are palpable: who forgets during the swearing in ceremony of the Covid-19 sorority, he had delibrately pushed a document from his desk to a floor only to order Halima Mdee (MP) to pick it up for him. If that is not an act of exaltation we do not know what else it is.
If the interpretations of these undercurrents are true, then he had exalted himself beyond measure and God is now humbling him: never forget before a humiliation a man is not only proud but arrogant too. The tentative dilemma now is will Ndugai swallow his huge pride and resign or will he hang on to fight an agonizing survival battle until my sister dumps him in 2025? We know, for sure, few will mourn when the guillotine falls upon his political career, and many will reminisce the downfall of another giant during an authoritarian reign of Mwendazake.
We now have an important projection.
Ndugai days as the speaker of the house are truly over. It is no longer a question of if but rather when the CCM CC will ask him to tender his resignation or be humiliated in public.
The deputy speaker will soon be madam speaker joining Anne Makinda in that small clique of CCM women to be named as such. The deputy may be a political greenhorn but is smart enough to know there is a new sheriff in town who brooks no leadership challenge. As a result, it is time to reward her sumptuously with her boss job. After all, her boss obviously hates his job and is angling for "bigger things" which will never come to pass.
We can only hope for the sake of keeping his titular at the dodoma market he will call quits now or his banner will quickly be unfurled even there.
Human character despises instability and nobody will endure a rival perpetually, and it is this weird dichotomy is what we are grappling with right now. Looks like Polepole dejavu must implicitly discern...Mwendazake henchmen fail to grasp their era is now water under the Selander bridge and holdovers may be endured as long as they restrain themselves from rocking the cradle from within.
Whoever said "mafahali wawili hawakai zizi moja" knew what he was talking about...