Ninahisi TZS iko 'virtually pegged' kwenye USD

[The Evil Genius]

Demand na Supply ndo hushusha na kupandisha thamani ya fedha.

Yeah, nakubaliana na wewe kwa msingi huo wa forces za demand and supply kama short term ama temporary currency appreciation lakini kuna sababu nyingine nyingi nzito kama kuimarika kwa uchumi ama kuongezeka kwa uwekezaji kutoka nje. Hivyo hufanya thamani ya fedha ya nchi husika kupanda na kuimarika kwa muda mrefu.

 

[Tsh]

Yeah, nakubaliana na wewe kwa msingi huo wa forces za demand and supply kama short term ama temporary currency appreciation lakini kuna sababu nyingine nyingi nzito kama kuimarika kwa uchumi ama kuongezeka kwa uwekezaji kutoka nje. Hivyo hufanya thamani ya fedha ya nchi husika kupanda na kuimarika kwa muda mrefu.

Upo sawa boss

 

[T14 Armata]

Nitafuatilia ili kujua,

Huenda soon kwenye MT4 zetu tutakuwa na USDTZS kama ilivyo kwa ndugu zetu Wa_South USDZAR

Unaota mkuu.

 

[frankkilulya]

tangu dollar ishuke sahivi kila mtu mchumi

 

[Pulchra Animo]

'Ninahisi' TZS ipo pegged kwenye USD bila sisi kujua.

Ninasema hivyo sababu toka TZS ipande thamani ghafla dhidi ya USD basi graph za currencies nyingi duniani zimeonesha TZS ikiongezeka thamani dhidi ya currencies hizo.

Labda nielezee 'pegging' ni nini kwenye currency. Pegging ni ile hali ambapo nchi inaamua kuhusisha moja kwa moja sarafu ya nchi yake na sarafu nyingine yenye nguvu kiuchumi (mfano USD).

Katika hali hio, sarafu husika ikipanda au kushuka thamani relative to the currency that it was pegged on basi graphs za currencies nyingine huakisi movements zile zile.

Itakua ngumu kushawishi umma kwamba kuna kitu kimefanyika hadi TZS kuongezeka thamani against more than 10 currencies at once, yaan inamaanisha tumetrigger kitu ambacho kiuchumi kimegusa mahusiano yetu kiuchumi na nchi zaidi ya 10 kwa wakati mmoja.

The only reasonable explanation ni kwamba TZS ipo 'virtually pegged on USD' na ndio maana ikatengeneza hio ripple effect hadi kwenye currencies zingine.

View attachment 3175853View attachment 3175854View attachment 3175855View attachment 3175856View attachment 3175857View attachment 3175858

Hayo ni mawazo yangu, je nn mawazo yako?

Obviously, umeanzisha uzi wa maoni kwenye field ambayo huna utaalamu nayo kabisa. Ulichopaswa kufanya ni kuuliza a straight question ili watu wenye expertise katika field hiyo wakueleweshe!

 

[Mwl.RCT]

Unaota mkuu.

Hakika kwa TZS yetu hii, Ni ndoto ya mchana kweupe.

 

[kali linux]

Dollar ndio base currency, kama inashuka maana yake hata currency nyingine zitashuka. Huwezi kupata euros hadi uwe na dollar, huwezi kupata currency yoyote hadi uwe na Dollar, unless zile currency ambazo ni direct ila mara karibu zote dollar ndio hua base currency.

Kwa maana nyingine ni kwamba, banks ama fx dealers kama BDC ili wawe na currencies nyingine wanatakiwa kwanza kua na dollar, sasa kama, kama dollar against tzs inashuka, maana yake other currencies against tzs zitashuka pia.

Kama umejielewa wewe mwenyewe ulichoandika unamaanisha flow/supply ya TZS inategemea USD, na ndio maana nikasema ipo 'Virtually Pegged'

Cheki sarafu zingine utaona hazina hio direct relationship.

Halafu usiongelee kwa scope ya FX/Equity trading tu, factor in uchumi mzima. Mfano ulotoa ni wa trading, na hio tunaitaga dollar/euro denominated funds. Funds/brokers wengi ni dollar denominated na ndio maana watakutaka wewe uwe na dollar ndipo utrade nao. Yaan assets zao zipo valued kwenye dollars so kupunguza exchange rate costs wewe utakapotaka kutrade wanakulazimisha ww ndo uwe na dollar.

Tukirudi kwenye real picture, unachosema ndio ninachodhan kinafanyika ila tumetumia maneno tofauti tu. That means TZ haina uhusiano wa kiuchumi wa moja kwa moja na nchi fln, that means hata nikitaka kutrade na mchina lazima niwe na dollar, nikitaka kutrade na mkenya, SA, UG, Europe yote basi lazima niwe na US Dollar

 

[kali linux]

Obviously, umeanzisha uzi wa maoni kwenye field ambayo huna utaalamu nayo kabisa. Ulichopaswa kufanya ni kuuliza straight question ili watu wenye expertise katika field hiyo wakueleweshe!

Wewe obviously huna utaalamu ndio maana hujacomment khs mada umecomment khs mm, ambavyo vyote huvijui.

Sasa kama hauna utaalamu unajuaje mm sina utaalam?

Leta points usikilizwe na ndo maana nikauliza maoni ya watu, otherwise soma tu ukae pembeni mkuu sio kila kona lazima utie neno.

 

[mwatwinojr]

Shilingi haijaimarika popote. Kilichosababisha dollar kuonekana inashuka sio kwa sababu ya dollar yenyewe kushuka thamani bali ni kuongezeka kwa upatikanaji wa USD sokoni huku hakuna shilingi.

Mwezi October hadi November kila mwaka kuna mauzo ya korosho, haya huingiza kati ya 150m usd hadi 250m usd. At the same time GGM mwezi huu wa 11 hadi 12 ameingiza sokoni zaidi ya 120m usd anaziuza kwa soko la ndani ili kulipa kodi na magawio ya serikalini hivyo kuzidi kuongeza upatikanaji wa USD kwenye soko la ndani.

So hiyo inflow ya dollar inaenda kukata turudi kule kule tulipokua, hata ukimsikiliza gavana anasema januari ama februari dollar itaendelea kupanda, infact hua sio dollar inapanda thamani, bali hua ni upatikanaji wake kua hafifu nchini kutokana na kua na vyanzo vichache vya upatikanaji wa USD nchini.

Hilo limeniingia kidogo

 

[Pulchra Animo]

Wewe obviously huna utaalamu ndio maana hujacomment khs mada umecomment khs mm, ambavyo vyote huvijui.

Sasa kama hauna utaalamu unajuaje mm sina utaalam?

Leta points usikilizwe na ndo maana nikauliza maoni ya watu, otherwise soma tu ukae pembeni mkuu sio kila kona lazima utie neno.

Unaendelea kushangaza kwa kukumbatia ignorance. Pegging haifanyi kazi hivyo. Matokeo ya pegging ni fixed exchange rate baina ya currency zinazohusika. Kudorora kwa USD kungemaanisha kudorora (sio kuimarika) kwa TZS!

Again, nakushauri uulize a straight question ili watu wakusaidie!

 

[kali linux]

Unaendelea kushangaza kwa kukumbatia ignorance. Pegging haifanyi kazi hivyo. Matokeo ya pegging ni fixed exchange rate baina ya currency zinazohusika. Kudorora kwa USD kungemaanisha kudorora (sio kuimarika) kwa TZS!

Again, nakushauri uulize a straight question ili watu wakusaidie!

Unazidi kuongea takataka tu hapa, Nani alikwambia pegging lazima ilete positive correlation kati ya currencies husika?

Hujui kwamba (ofcoz najua hujui) Soft Peg na Managed float zinaweza sababisha inverse correlation kwenye pegging kama situatiob inayotokea kwa TZS/USD? Na je ulielewa nlipotumia neno 'Virtually Pegged'?

Uchumi ni data mzee sio umbea umbea, kaangalie historical data za Chinese Yuan (CNY) na USD kpnd wamepeg currency yao kwenye USD uone hizo inverse relationship kibao tu zilivokua zinatokea

Again, nishasema ongelea mada sio kuleta vitu irrelevant, af ignorant ni wewe maana unaandika takataka tu kwa concept usozijua kiundani

 

[Pulchra Animo]

Unazidi kuongea takataka tu hapa, Nani alikwambia pegging lazima ilete positive correlation kati ya currencies husika?

Hujui kwamba (ofcoz najua hujui) Soft Peg na Managed float zinaweza sababisha inverse correlation kwenye pegging kama situatiob inayotokea kwa TZS/USD? Na je ulielewa nlipotumia neno 'Virtually Pegged'?

Uchumi ni data mzee sio umbea umbea, kaangalie historical data za Chinese Yuan (CNY) na USD kpnd wamepeg currency yao kwenye USD uone hizo inverse relationship kibao tu zilivokua zinatokea

Again, nishasema ongelea mada sio kuleta vitu irrelevant, af ignorant ni wewe maana unaandika takataka tu kwa concept usozijua kiundani

Ndiyo uzuri wa hili jukwaa; hata darasa la saba anaweza kumuambia professor aende shule!

…Feel free to hold on to your ignorance. I rest my case!

 

[kali linux]

Ndiyo uzuri wa hili jukwaa; hata darasa la saba anaweza kumuambia professor aende shule!

…Feel free to hold on to your ignorance. I rest my case!

Huna point...
Unashindwa kujibu hoja...

Ujuaji tu usio na tija yyt. Bring me arguments & data kama ninavyofanya sio umbea umbea tu na uswahili, nishakwambia huu mjadala unadeal na data sio uswahili swahili

 

[Pulchra Animo]

Huna point...
Unashindwa kujibu hoja...

Ujuaji tu usio na tija yyt. Bring me arguments & data kama ninavyofanya sio umbea umbea tu na uswahili, nishakwambia huu mjadala unadeal na data sio uswahili swahili

“Bring me arguments & data kama ninavyofanya…” my foot!

 

[Camp 05]

'Ninahisi' TZS ipo pegged kwenye USD bila sisi kujua.

Ninasema hivyo sababu toka TZS ipande thamani ghafla dhidi ya USD basi graph za currencies nyingi duniani zimeonesha TZS ikiongezeka thamani dhidi ya currencies hizo.

Labda nielezee 'pegging' ni nini kwenye currency. Pegging ni ile hali ambapo nchi inaamua kuhusisha moja kwa moja sarafu ya nchi yake na sarafu nyingine yenye nguvu kiuchumi (mfano USD).

Katika hali hio, sarafu husika ikipanda au kushuka thamani relative to the currency that it was pegged on basi graphs za currencies nyingine huakisi movements zile zile.

Itakua ngumu kushawishi umma kwamba kuna kitu kimefanyika hadi TZS kuongezeka thamani against more than 10 currencies at once, yaan inamaanisha tumetrigger kitu ambacho kiuchumi kimegusa mahusiano yetu kiuchumi na nchi zaidi ya 10 kwa wakati mmoja.

The only reasonable explanation ni kwamba TZS ipo 'virtually pegged on USD' na ndio maana ikatengeneza hio ripple effect hadi kwenye currencies zingine.

View attachment 3175853View attachment 3175854View attachment 3175855View attachment 3175856View attachment 3175857View attachment 3175858

Hayo ni mawazo yangu, je nn mawazo yako?

Usisahau kuwa madini nchi nyingi zinaishiwa wakati Tanzania inazidi kugundua namna nzuri ya kufanya mineral accommodation

 

[Dialogist]

“Bring me arguments & data kama ninavyofanya…” my foot!

Sasa Bosi si utoe tu madini kama unayo, kuliko general response😃😃

 

[WAKUNJOMBE]

'Ninahisi' TZS ipo pegged kwenye USD bila sisi kujua.

Ninasema hivyo sababu toka TZS ipande thamani ghafla dhidi ya USD basi graph za currencies nyingi duniani zimeonesha TZS ikiongezeka thamani dhidi ya currencies hizo.

Labda nielezee 'pegging' ni nini kwenye currency. Pegging ni ile hali ambapo nchi inaamua kuhusisha moja kwa moja sarafu ya nchi yake na sarafu nyingine yenye nguvu kiuchumi (mfano USD).

Katika hali hio, sarafu husika ikipanda au kushuka thamani relative to the currency that it was pegged on basi graphs za currencies nyingine huakisi movements zile zile.

Itakua ngumu kushawishi umma kwamba kuna kitu kimefanyika hadi TZS kuongezeka thamani against more than 10 currencies at once, yaan inamaanisha tumetrigger kitu ambacho kiuchumi kimegusa mahusiano yetu kiuchumi na nchi zaidi ya 10 kwa wakati mmoja.

The only reasonable explanation ni kwamba TZS ipo 'virtually pegged on USD' na ndio maana ikatengeneza hio ripple effect hadi kwenye currencies zingine.

View attachment 3175853View attachment 3175854View attachment 3175855View attachment 3175856View attachment 3175857View attachment 3175858

Hayo ni mawazo yangu, je nn mawazo yako?

Mm naona hili swala la mda tu na limesababishwa na Demand and Supply..kama unavyo jua Tz tumekopa sana tena sana kipindi hiki ..so tunahela za kigeni (USD) za kutosha..So Demand ya Usd sio tatizo tena..so dolla mtaani ipo maanake nn..kama ujuavyo sheria ya bei...so kutokana na uwepo wa doll nyingi..ndio price yake inashuka..rejea sheria ya DEMAND AND SUPPLY.
Chapili japo sio rasmi..watu walificha USD sawa baada ya kusikia mark animal wana change currency wameamua kuziachia zisije wadodea...

 

[Pulchra Animo]

Sasa Bosi si utoe tu madini kama unayo, kuliko general response😃😃

Shida ni moja. Mleta uzi ni faux intellectual.

Iko hivi, TZS ikiimarika (meritoriously) dhidi ya USD, ni lazima pia iimarike dhidi ya currencies zingine; otherwise, arbitrage itatokea chapuchapu na kuilazimisha TZS kuimarika dhidi ya currencies zingine.

Imagine the following simplified hypothetical scenario:

Exchange rates kabla ya leo: TZS/USD = 1; TZS/KES = 1; KES/USD = 1

Leo ikitokea TZS ikaimarika dhidi ya USD na exchange rate kuwa TZS/USD = 0.5, lakini exchange rates zingine zote zikabaki kama zilivyokuwa jana, currency traders walio na KES wanaweza kufanya transactions zifuatazo, kwa mfano:

🌑Watanunua TZS 100 kwa gharama ya KES 100
🌑TZS 100 walizozinunua watazibadilisha na kupata USD 200
🌑USD 200 walizozipata watazibadilisha na kupata KES 200

Currency trader ameanza na KES 100 na sasa ana KES 200. This is 100% profit. Hii opportunity ya kutengeneza windfall profit kama hii katu haiwezi kudumu. Wenye KES wataisaka TZS kwa udi na uvumba na kuifanya iimarike dhidi ya KES, kitu kitakachopelekea kufutika kwa arbitrage opportunity iliyokuwepo!

 

[kali linux]

🌑Watanunua TZS 100 kwa gharama ya KES 100
🌑TZS 100 walizozinunua watazibadilisha na kupata USD 200
🌑USD 200 walizozipata watazibadilisha na kupata KES 200

Mwl.RCT au trader yyt anaejua markets vzr njooni muone hii trade.

Kwa huu mfano ndo nimeona uko mweupe kabisa.

Hio trade yako uloongelea hapo haiwezekani maana trader akiuza asset/currecy yyt inaenda kuaffect price ya hio asset. So mda wanauza hizo TZS kupata USD hicho kitendo kitashusha value ya TZS na market itafanya correction, bei haitokuwa constant kama mfano wako ulivo.

Inaonesha haujui lolote la maana khs markets na trading au unajua juu juu sana. Hata mtu akiwa na loads of USD dollars akataka kuziuza lazima kuna batch ataiuza kwa price ya chini sababu ya hio effect, na ndio maana institutional traders wengi wakitaka ku-unload currency au asset yyt wanatumia blocks nje ya market ya kawaida. Na pia ndio maana kuna vitu vinaitwa OPTIONS, mtu akitaka kuhakikisha ana-mantain hio constant price kuna manual labor kubwa sana hapo ya kufanya inayohusisha OPTIONS na FUTURES zinazohusika na hio currency/asset

Kwa kukusaidia tu, kafuatilie concept inaitwa 'Zero Cost Collar' na pia uache kujifanya mjuaji, utaaibika bure, huo mfano wako hata dogo yyt alieanza kutrade juzi ataona umeongea pumba

Na hata kama ww ni professor kama unavodai basi ni wa mchongo na haupo kwenye field. Mm natrade markets on daily basis so naongea ninachopractice hapa

 

[Fanton Mahal]

Najionea mapicha picha tu hata sielewi