Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

[Axel Lloyd]

@Pietro umekua na hoja zaajabu sana ujue mzeee
Matokeo ya counter offensive kufanikiwa kwake kulitakiwa hii kura isiwepo yaani iwe kura haiendelei ama haiwezi fanyika hapa hata sisi pro PUT IN tungejua kweli mmepambana ila unasema matokeo ya kaunta wakat nchi inamegwa huko na hamna lakufanya sasa hayo matokeo c yanakua yamefeli ama unadhani matokeo yakushambulia nikutaka ushinde (rrferendum isifanyike) ama ushindwe (referendum kufanyika nanasikia saa 10 jioni matokeo)

Sasa hapa kuna uhusiano gani wa referendum na hayo maeneo kutokuchukuliwa mapema
Kama uwezo wakuyachukua wanao watayachukua ama wayachukue haijalishi kuna ref ama hakuna sababu LPR iliondoka mapema tu na zaporinhe mapema tu wahii SVO

Hayo maeneo licha ya kwamba wamagharibi hawatayatambua kujitenga kwake ila nakuhakikishia hayatakaa yarejelee UKRAINE

Kwan kuna taifa la magharibi lilitambua ref ya CRIMEA ila ile sinisehm ya RUSSIA namaisha yanaendelea kwaku like or not
Ili UKRAINE airejeshe CRIMEA na sehem zinazoondoka leo nilazima aingie total war na RUSSIA jambo ambalo hataweza hata siku moja hasa akiwa mwenyewe

Hii ishu yakutegemea kwamba UKRAINE anapigana akiwa kwake halaf mtegemee kukomboa sehem musahau

:-RUSSIA hashindwi na hajashindwa wala kuchelewa kuchukua eneo lolole ila anaenda kwautaratibu maalum kama angetaka kubeba hayo maeneo kama mnavyotaka leo msingelishuhudia ref huko LPR na DPR pamoja na sehem nyengine za UKRAINE

:-Ninavyoamini mie kuhusiana na ODESSA yaani RUSSIA hatakama yuko na malengo gani maadam kaamua kuimega UKRAINE sidhanii kama atakua kaimega vyema kama akiwaachia ODESSA yaani lazima aondoke na ODESSA kwagharama yeyote ile ila sio kwamuda wowote ila nikupitia hii SVO
Ninachoamini mie kituo kinachofuata ODESSA ila muda utaamua ila RUSSIA kwenye hii SVO hajakurupuka kaenda kwamahesabu kawaprove wrong mlitaka aiteke KIEV angetumia rasilimali nyingi OP ingemshinda akaona aanze kubeba strategic place ambazo pia zitafanya SVO iendelee kupitia huko aliko pateka ntaambatanisha na maeneo aloteka nafaida zake uonr ndugu mmoja hapo kapost Qibsyl

[emoji116]

[emoji635] [emoji1255] On September 27, referendums on the accession of the Liberated territories of Ukraine to the Russian Federation end. And the procedure for their admission to the Russian Federation may take place on September 29.

We analyze what Ukraine is losing:
[emoji188] Regions in which referendums are held have rich black soil, mineral deposits, developed industry, large economic, industrial and human potential, developed mining industry, transport and industrial infrastructure.

[emoji188] Until 2014, only Donetsk and Lugansk regions together accounted for 16% of Ukraine's GDP.

[emoji188] Integration of agricultural regions (Zaporozhye and Kherson regions) will turn the Russian Federation into the largest player in the grain market;

[emoji188] Odessa actually remains the only access point of Ukraine to the sea (at the same time, Odessa remains in the sphere of interests of the Russian Federation);

[emoji188] Ukraine is losing about 9 million people, and taxpayers in uncontrolled territories will move into the Russian legal field.

As you can see, the situation is amazing, but at the same time, no one is talking about the future arrival of winter, when the lack of energy resources and other economic difficulties will force European countries to radically reconsider their policy of supporting Ukraine.

[emoji91] Yet akili ndefu wa JF wanadai Ukraine is winning.

Mwisho:-siamini kama hii SVO inaweza kua imekamilika ama itakamilika bila ODESSA kuondoka

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Putin alilewa sifa baada ya kuchukua Crimea na mataifa ya magharibi kumnyamazia akaona ndo kamchezo akataka kumega Donbass na Luhansk sasa safari hii wenzake wamekataa kukaa kimya maana wakikaa kimya ndo itakua kamchezo Ka kila Taifa lenye nguvu kunyakua eneo la jirani yake dhaifu na kusema ni sehemu ya nchi yake. Matokeo ya hizo referendum hayatabadili kitu maana jamii ya kimataifa ikiwemo Marekani na mataifa mengine hawatambui hayo maeneo kama sehemu ya Urusi hivyo ni ruksa kwa Ukraine kuyashambulia licha ya Putin kutishia nyuklia kila kunapokuchwa.

Kama mpaka sasa mwezi wa nane tangu vita ianze ameshindwa kuteka Donbass yote mpaka kaamua kuita jeshi la kuita lije kusaidia ndo ataweza kuichukua Odessa kipindi hiki ambacho Ukraine wana Makombora hatari ya Ant ship kama Harpoon?!

 

[FUSO]

Wanajeshi wa Russia wanazidi kujisalimisha tazama video na wananjaa kweli tazama huyo mmoja anafakamia maji[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]
Me nasubiri mobilization waje uwanjani

hii ina maana logistics ya ku supply basic needs kwenye war front line imekatwa kabisa!! balaa.

 

[FUSO]

Naona warusi wa bongo wameukimbia uzi...!! Tuliwaambia mapema sana kwamba Urusi hana ubavu wa kupigana na watu wa magharibi kwa umoja wao.

Sasa atabokolewa na Crimea inaondoka - na akithubutu kutumia nyukilia basi tutamsahau na itabaki historia, watamgawana ka mpira wa kona

 

[Sikirimimimasikini]

 

[FUSO]

View attachment 2369684

mwambieni aiwashe hiyo nyukilia....kama kweli kidume !!

 

[Senior Bachelor ll]

[emoji28][emoji2][emoji1787]View attachment 2368661

Kama wajeda wa Burundi tu

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[Msulibasi]

mwambieni aiwashe hiyo nyukilia....kama kweli kidume !!

Umezoea ugomvi wa wapiga debe . Nuke inasambaa pakubwa na itakula waliomo na wasiomo nadhani utakuwa Form tatu

 

[let the caged bird sings]

Wanajeshi wa Russia wanazidi kujisalimisha tazama video na wananjaa kweli tazama huyo mmoja anafakamia maji[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]
Me nasubiri mobilization waje uwanjani

😂😂😂

 

[WAZO2010]

Naona warusi wa bongo wameukimbia uzi...!! Tuliwaambia mapema sana kwamba Urusi hana ubavu wa kupigana na watu wa magharibi kwa umoja wao.

Sasa atabokolewa na Crimea inaondoka - na akithubutu kutumia nyukilia basi tutamsahau na itabaki historia, watamvamia ka mpira wa kona

Kuna eneo gani mmekomboa? Watu wana piga kura kujitenga[emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]

 

[kp kipanya44]

Umezoea ugomvi wa wapiga debe . Nuke inasambaa pakubwa na itakula waliomo na wasiomo nadhani utakuwa Form tatu

Ina maana Putin Hana akili ya kulitambua hili ,kutwa kushinda jukwaani akitishia nyukria [emoji848],

 

[Senior Bachelor ll]

ok, Jamaa wanafanya mambo yao kwa mipanngo na mahesabu makali sana ila hiyo odesa hata mimi naipenda wafanye waichukue tu

Odessa urusi ataichukua alafu baadae atairudisha (kwa mkakati maalumu)

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[kp kipanya44]

mwambieni aiwashe hiyo nyukilia....kama kweli kidume !!

US anamcheck Putin aguse hiyo nyukria mithiri ya paka anavyommendea panya,

 

[Senior Bachelor ll]

Sidhani kama itachukuliwa, nahisi watasurrender haraka kabla ya kuchukuliwa….Itakuwa hatari kma Odesaa nayo itaenda maana bahari nzima ya ukrain itakuwa imeondoka, hvyo Russia itakuwa na control kinachoingia na kinachotoka Ukrain kupitia bandari zote…na mbaya zaidi ile miji iliyopiga referendum itakuwa na uchumi mkubwa kuliko Ukrain iliyobaki, waukrain wengi watadefect kuelekea kwnye hiyo miji, maana baada ya vita sidhani kma Ukrain anaweza kurebuild miji yote kwa kasi ukilinganisha na Urusi. Hiyo miji ijiandae kwa wimbi kubwa la wakimbizi.

Nadhani wataichukua then watairudisha kwa masharti magumu ambayo Ukraine atapewa
Ili Odessa iwe buffer zone kwa usalama wa majimbo yaliyonyakuliwa (hapa Ukraine ataachiwa kama njia ya kuwa na access na maji

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[Mtoto wa nzi]

Kwa hiyo unategemea niamini hii habar yako kama wewe huamini ya kwangu ,bwashee unachekesha

Wewe amini CNN acha tuamini RT imeisha hiyo..... Na Hawa ni Wandebele ....Zimbabwe Hapo.

 

[WAZO2010]

Naona sasa mipango inayojadiliwa upande wa NATO na Marekani, je wajiandae kivipi kwa matishio kutoka Urusi kuhusu matumizi ya silaha za nyuklia.
Naona hao wanaosema: Tusiogope mbwa anabweka tu, haumi. Ukraine imeshapiga Krimea, hakuna kilichotokea.

Wengine wanasema: hatuwezi kuwa na uhakika, maana akishindwa Putin hawezi kubaki, atajaribu mengi ili asipinduliwe.
Naona mawazao mbalimbali yanayojadiliwa, pamoja na kuandaa ama silaha ndogo za kinyuklia za kujibu ndani ya Urusi, au kuandaa pigo bila nyuklia itakayoangamiza kituo cha Kirusi kinachtumiwa kurusha silaha ya nyuklia ya kwanza.
Sipenda hayo yote. Ni hatari kweli.
Sina uhakika jinsi ya kuchukua lugha ya Zelenski. SIjui kama anamini uwezekano wa ushindi kweli? AU anatafuta tu nafasi nzuri zaidi kwa majadiliano?
Nahisi nyuma ya mapazia anaambiwa asisukume mno kuhusu Krimea - kama nafasi ya kumpa mbwa Putin angalau mfupa mdogo na pia kuzingatia msimamo wa wenyeji - haieleweki wazi kama kuna kweli idadi kubwa huko Krimea wanataka kurudi Ukraine...


BAsi someni hapa majadiliano ya Marekani:

Recommendations for US policy to prevent Russian nuclear use​

To prevent Russia from employing nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the United States should issue a clearer deterrent threat. It could choose between vague or explicit threats issued publicly or privately.

• At present, Putin may believe that he could use nuclear weapons without a significant Western response. A clearer US deterrent threat would help disabuse him of that notion.
• A vague threat (e.g., “Russia’s decision to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine would risk the gravest possible consequences”) has the benefit of conveying to Russia that there would be repercussions for nuclear use without committing the United States to a particular course of action.
• A more specific threat (e.g., “It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear attack against Ukraine as an attack on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response”) would have greater deterrent value but limit US flexibility.
• While a vague threat could be dismissed as cheap talk, a more specific threat runs the risk of drawing a “red line” that Washington cannot enforce, making a vague threat the better option.
• These threats could be conveyed privately, but a public threat would likely be more effective in deterring Russia and assuring allies, as US credibility would be on the line for the world to see.

Recommendations for a US response to Russian nuclear use
A clearer threat should be sufficient to deter a Russian nuclear attack, but Washington must be prepared to execute its threat if deterrence fails.

Retaliatory option 1: The United States could intensify its current approach: increasing sanctions on Russia, further isolating Moscow internationally, arming Ukraine with more advanced weapons, and redoubling efforts to militarily reinforce Eastern Europe.

• Russian nuclear use might provide an opening to convince countries that have so far been reluctant—such as India and possibly even China—to participate in escalating sanctions.
• The United States could provide Ukraine with more advanced weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory and help Ukrainian units operate in a nuclear environment. This might include supplying iodine pills, radiation suits, Geiger counters, and other relevant material.
• The United States and NATO could strengthen their military posture in Eastern Europe, including adding heavier and permanent conventional forces while also relocating US nuclear weapons to Poland. They could announce the development of additional types of low-yield, theater nuclear weapons for deployment in Europe, such as a nuclear Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) or Ground-Launched Cruise Missile (GLCM).
• The United States could go on nuclear alert to deter attacks on NATO allies. This could include taking visible steps to place warheads on bombers and sending nuclear submarines out to sea.

Pros: These steps would impose a cost on Russia, and Washington could plausibly claim that it has followed through on its deterrent threat.
Cons: There is a risk that many friends and foes will see these measures as an insufficient response to a nuclear attack.

Retaliatory option 2: The United States could respond with military force.

• Option 2A: The United States could conduct a limited conventional strike on the Russian forces or bases directly involved in the attack. A more robust version of this option would be to join the war on Ukraine’s side.

Pros: Direct US military intervention would be widely perceived as a meaningful response, potentially restoring nuclear deterrence in Ukraine and reinforcing the global nuclear taboo.

Cons: A military response increases the risk of escalation to a direct Russia-NATO war. Russia might conclude that the United States is unwilling to use nuclear weapons, encouraging additional Russian nuclear strikes. Some US allies might still see a conventional response to a nuclear attack as insufficient.

• Option 2B: The United States could use nuclear weapons to respond to and deter further Russian nuclear use in Ukraine.

Pros: A nuclear response is most likely to reinforce the deterrence of adversaries, result in the assurance of allies, and reestablish the global taboo against nuclear use in the future by demonstrating that countries cannot use nuclear weapons without dire consequences. Both allies and adversaries might be surprised or perceive weakness if the United States does not respond in kind to a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
Cons: A US decision to use nuclear weapons would raise challenging questions about what Russian target to hit with what US nuclear weapon. A US nuclear strike may restore deterrence, but it might also provoke a Russian nuclear reprisal, raising the risk of a larger nuclear exchange and further humanitarian disaster.

Given the costs and benefits above, the best US response if deterrence fails may be a mix of options 1 and 2A: an intensification of ongoing efforts to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine and a limited conventional strike against the Russian forces or bases that launched the nuclear attack.

Memo to the president: How to deter Russian nuclear use in Ukraine—and respond if deterrence fails

The US should issue vague public threats of serious consequences should Russia use nuclear weapons and be prepared to follow through with conventional military strikes if deterrence fails.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Hii vita hadi inaisha iwe 2025 au 2050; USA hataingilia kamwe! Ata endelea na kuuza Silaha, kutoa misaada, kupiga promo, vikwazo, ushauri, mikakati, nk. Ila vitani USA hawezi jiingiza na nchi yenye uwezo wa kupiga mizinga directly, pentagon, Texas, Washington, nk. Never!!

 

[Nyamizi]

jiji la kupyanks ambalo urusi ilijiondoa teyari sehemu kubwa ya jiji hilo imesharudiwa na urusi katika jimbo la kharkiv.

makombora ya himars xamekutana na mziki wa drone za iran

[emoji2][emoji2][emoji2][emoji2]

 

[Nyamizi]

Source; almashauri ya kichwa chako [emoji2][emoji2][emoji1787]

Huyu jamaa tangu asemage Kyiv inakwenda kuwa majivu ndani ya masaa machache yajayo huwa nikisoma comments zake naishia kucheka tu.Ni muongo muongo mno [emoji2][emoji2][emoji2]

 

[Kalamu]

Vipi kuhusu
Uvamizi wa Georgia 2008?
Uvamizi wa Chechnya 1990?
Uvamizi wa Finland winter war 1939?
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact na uvamizi wa Poland mwaka 1939?

Duh!

Mkuu 'Yoda', siwezi kudai kwamba ninao ufahamu wa vamizi zote hizi ulizoweka hapa; ila ninachoweza kukuhoji wewe kama ni mjuvi wa haya mambo: Hivi hizi ndizo vamizi pekee zilizowahi kufanywa hapa duniani?
Hebu jaribu kuweka na hizo nyingine ambazo hukuona umuhimu wa kuzijumuisha katika mifano hii hapa uliyoweka.

Na zaidi ya hivyo, hivi inawezekana kukafanyika njama za kutaka kumvamia huyo anayevamia wengine..., kama kumuwahi hivi kabla ya hao wanaovamiwa?

 

[Mwanamkiwi]

View attachment 2369684

Kitoto yule Medyedyev.... aliamka na chupa cha Vodka ?

 

[Final Boss]

From Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of RSC...

👇

🔥 More about the use of nuclear weapons

Our enemies love to make grandiloquent statements. Operate with the terms "freedom", "democracy", "mission". In fact, this is just ritual verbal diarrhea.

Fountains of diarrheal demagogy, coupled with vicious croaking rhetoric, have become a long-proven weapon of the Anglo-Saxon world, with which they flood the rest of humanity in an attempt to defend their exclusivity and the right to rule the world.

The topic of recent days is the Russian nuclear threat.
Biden and Truss, various secondary blinkins and sullivans, spraying Atlantic saliva, demand that Russia remove its hand from its “nuclear button”. Together, they constantly threaten us with “terrifying” consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons.

And the London aunt, young in mind, is completely ready to immediately begin an exchange of nuclear strikes with our country.

I have to remind you again - for those deaf who hear only themselves. Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary. in predetermined cases. In strict accordance with the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence.

If we or our allies are attacked using this type of weapon. Or if aggression with the use of conventional weapons threatens the very existence of our state. The President of Russia spoke about this directly recently.

In addition, we will do everything to prevent the appearance of nuclear weapons in our hostile neighbors. For example, in Nazi Ukraine, which is directly controlled today by NATO countries.

It is pointless to count on the reason and political will of the Kyiv regime. But there is still a fragile hope for common sense and a sense of self-preservation of the enemy countries condoning them. They understand that if the threat to Russia exceeds the established danger limit, we will have to respond.

Without asking anyone's permission, without long consultations. And it's definitely not a bluff.

The question is different. Imagine that Russia is forced to use the most formidable weapon against the Ukrainian regime, which has committed a large-scale act of aggression that is dangerous for the very existence of our state. I believe that NATO will not directly intervene in the conflict even in this situation.

After all, the security of Washington, London, and Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of the perishing Ukraine, which no one needs, even if it is abundantly supplied with various weapons.

The supply of modern weapons is just a business for Western countries, however, heavily implicated in hatred towards us. No more.

Overseas and European demagogues are not going to perish in a nuclear apocalypse. Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict. Something like this…

It would be nice if this sad conclusion was at least partially realized by the authorities in Kyiv. Alas, this is almost impossible. They are in constant war frenzy with short pauses for bizarre drug dreams.