Analysis: Timing will be key as Ukraine prepares to strike back against Russia
Analysis by CNN's Tim Lister
Weather the storm, exhaust the enemy and then strike back β that has been the mantra of
Ukraineβs military for months, one echoed by senior US and NATO officials since the winter.
But the Ukrainians themselves may not yet know if it can be
executed and how as they study the 1,000-kilometer (621 miles) front line for Russian vulnerabilities,
Nevertheless, they are aware it will be a crucial chapter in the conflict. Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraineβs Defense Intelligence, said in an interview last month that Russia and Ukraine will fight βa decisive battle this spring, and this battle will be the final one before this war ends.β
That suggests the Ukrainians may take their time to maximize capabilities. But preparations are well underway.
The essential preconditions for a Ukrainian counter-offensive include the completion of training and integration of new units, degrading the Russian rear, a resilient logistics chain and real-time intelligence.
The βintelligence picture will inform things like where there might be weaknesses in Russian defensive deployments, as well as locations of Russian HQ, logistics, and reserve force locations,β said Mick Ryan, formerly a general in the Australian army who was recently in Ukraine.
Ukraine is standing up several new corps, each of which would comprise several thousand troops. βIncluded in these will not only be new western tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, wheeled vehicles and other equipment but also a lot of engineering equipment,β Ryan told CNN.
These units may be nearly ready.
βUkrainian sources have already telegraphed that theyβre forming or have formed six to nine new brigades for counteroffensives,β said Kateryna Stepanenko at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC.
Ryan says such ambitious offensives consume large amounts of fuel, munitions, food, medical supplies and spare equipment. The logistics chain β which may be hampered by poor weather more than armor β is critically important.
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Hii offensive ikilipa vizuri, itakuwa kete muhimu kwa Ukraine kupata sauti kwenye meza ya mazungumzo.
T14 Armata