Ukraine's moment of truth is coming as Zelensky doubles down on the Kursk nuclear power plant at Kurchatov:
Ukraine's forward reconnaissance-in-force units reached as far north as Kromskie Byki, barely 22 kilometers southwest of the Kursk nuclear power station at Kurchatov. It's clear that the AFU intends to establish this area as a launchpad for artillery, rocket, and suicide drone strikes on Russia's third-largest atomic energy facility.
Heavy fighting was reported throughout the day along a broad front of villages more than 30 kilometers inside the Kursk-Sumy border: which means that Ukraine committed precious reserves to hang onto its advance positions after its first echelon was obliterated by Russian fire and its remnants pushed back by Russian counterattacks. Most likely, fierce engagements, artillery duels, and airstrikes continue to dot the entire area of up to 350 square kilometers to the north, northwest, and northeast of the fully secured zone of the AFU salient beyond Sumy, which at this point is itself about 600 square kilometers large.
Ukraine is hurtling towards a point of no return. Anything less than the Kursk NPP will not give Zelensky the degree of diplomatic leverage he needs to reset the negotiating equation with Moscow. It would be useless for the AFU to grab more borderland just for the sake of occupying more Russian soil: as Kyiv has no intention of holding any Russian territory permanently. But an assault on the NPP is fraught with both military and political risks.
Militarily, the AFU lacks the manpower and logistics to physically reach the Kurchatov facility with sufficient force and supplies to be able to hold it. If current forward positions like Kromskie Byki are captured, the Ukrainians could instead apply pressure on Russia by shelling the NPP at a range of 20 to 30 kilometers - possibly forcing it to shut down. But the military cost of sustaining such an artillery bridgehead would be very high: making it unlikely to survive - at least in its maximal territorial extent - more than a few weeks, during which Russian forces will continue to make significant gains of their own in Donbas.
Furthermore, shelling and bombing attacks on the nuclear power station must somehow be kept at a level not provocative enough to warrant a large-scale Russian counteroffensive to roll back the Kursk invasion altogether (or at least reduce it to a far less threatening size). This could prove difficult if Ukrainian forces are perceived to be bogged down in their main objective while their Russian counterparts keep scoring incremental but steady gains in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.
Despite these risks, Zelensky cannot afford to play it safe anymore. Time is running out for the AFU grouping in Donbas. The Russian breakthrough in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk sectors signifies the final collapse of Kyiv's longstanding fortified defense line in the heart of Donetsk dating all the way to 2014. Once this front is fatally compromised, it would only bet a matter of time until the remainder of the Ukrainian line in Donetsk region - hundreds of kilometers of it - is progressively rolled up from the rear with massive Russian flanking maneuvers.
The next six to eight weeks will be the most consequential of the war so far. A desperate Ukraine will become even more desperate - and even more visibly so - as its Battle of the Bulge-style gambit in Kursk fails to produce the diplomatic bargaining chip Zelensky expected. But with hundreds of square kilometers of its own territory occupied - and one of its largest nuclear facilities under attack - Russia will merely be defending itself to go for a knockout blow against the present Kyiv administration.
DONBAS IMEKUA CHOCHORO