Swali la uchumi: Kwanini vikwazo vya mataifa yenye nguvu kubwa kiuchumi havifanyi kazi dhidi ya Urusi?

[50thebe]

Tokea mwaka 1944, baada ya kutengeneza mfumo wa Bretton-Woods hakuna taifa ambalo limewahi kuwa na uchumi mkubwa kama Marekani. Kufika mwaka 1945, Marekani ilikuwa inamiliki nusu nzima ya uchumi wa dunia. Fedha ya Marekani ikishikiliwa na dhahabu (Gold-Backed) ilikuwa ndiyo inatumiwa kwa kiwango kikubwa kwenye biashara zote za kimataifa.

Mwaka 1957, baada ya Raisi Gamal Abdel Nasser wa Misri kutaifisha mfereji wa Suez, Uingereza, Ufaransa na Israel waliunda mkakati wa kuvamia Misri ili kumtoa Nasser. Mkakati huu ulikufa kibudu baada ya Raisi wa Marekani General Dwight Eisenhower kuwachimba mkwara mzito Waingereza kwamba wangeacha kununua hati-fungani (Sovereign Bonds) za Uingereza na nyingine wangeziuza, jambo ambalo lingeangusha uchumi wa Uingereza.

Kiufupi, baada ya hili kutokea Raisi wa Ufaransa General Charles De Gaulle alilalamika na kusema kwamba "The dollar gives America an exorbitant privilege in international financial system". Akimaanisha kwamba dola inampa Marekani nguvu iliyomithirika kwenye uchumi wa dunia dhidi ya mataifa mengine. Kiufupi Marekani akikutoa kwenye mfumo wake wa kifedha, lazima uumie.

Wataalamu wanatumia vipimo (Metrics) kama GDP na PPP kupima uchumi wa dunia. Ukitumia kipimo cha GDP, nadhani Marekani ndiyo taifa lenye uchumi mkubwa zaidi duniani likifuatiwa na Uchina. Uchumi wa Marekani peke yake ni asilimia 24% ya uchumi wa dunia (Global GDP). Kiufupi ni kwamba, all financial roads lead to America.

Marekani hayuko peke yake, anashirikiana na wenzake wa kule Ulaya (European Union) na wenzake wa chama cha mabwanyenye wa dunia almaarufu kama G7. Ukichanganya uchumi wa Marekani, Ufaransa, Uingereza, Ujerumani, Italia, Canada na Japan, ambao ndiyo nchi tajiri zaidi duniani unapata asilimia 30.7% ya uchumi wa dunia (Global GDP).

Kiuhalisia, haya mataifa saba ndiyo yanayoendesha uchumi wa dunia kupitia mifumo waliyoitengeneza baada ya mwaka 1945. Viwanda vikubwa duniani ni vyao, masoko makubwa ya hisa ni yao, mabenki makubwa duniani ni yao, wao ndiyo wanaongoza katika kuzikopesha fedha nchi nyingine na wao ndiyo wanaongoza kwa kuuza huduma zaidi hapa duniani.

Maswali yangu ya kiuchumi ni haya yafuatayo:
Mosi, kwanini Urusi ambayo ni asilimia 4% tu ya uchumi wa dunia (Share in Global GDP) bado haijaanguka baada ya mataifa makubwa yanayomilikia asilimia 30.7% ya uchumiwa dunia kuwawekea vikwazo vikali ?

Pili, kwanini makampuni ya Urusi ya nishati ndiyo yameongoza duniani kwa kuuza zaidi nishati, ilhali yamewekewa vikwazi baada vikali ? Takwimu zilizotolewa na Marekani yenyewe zinasema kiujumla mashirika ya nishati ya Urusi yameuza zaidi na kupata faida kipindi hiki cha vita na vikwazo kuliko kipindi kingine chochote. Tatizo liko wapi hapa ?

Tatu, Je, tutegemee kwamba kuna siku hivi vikwazo vitafanya kazi na vitauangusha uchumi wa Urusi kama ambavyo Raisi Biden alisema mwaka 2022 kabla ya uvamizi kuanza ? Alisema kwamba uchumi wa Urusi ungeanguka ndani ya wiki chache tu, sasa ni mwaka na zaidi. Mataifa ya Magharibi yamefanikiwa au tuendelee kusubiri ?​

Maswali yako matatu kimsingi yanawakilishwa na swali namba mbili, kuhusu Nishati.

Uchumi wa Ulaya (EUROPEAN UNION) hauna uhai bila nishati kutoka Urusi.

Hakuna kipindi Urusi imetengeza faida kubwa kwenye nishati kama kipindi hiki ilipowekewa vikwazo vya kiuchumi. Kiasi kwamba takwimu zikaonesha Ulaya ndio waongoza kulipia vita ya Russia dhidi ya Ukraine.

Mbaya zaidi kwa Ulaya, kila wakati Marekani ikiibana Urusi kwenye biashara ya nishati hasa mafuta, UAE naye anaungana na Russia kutetea biashara ya mafuta. Hali inayo-threaten global dollar strength.

Kwa kutambua umuhimu wa Russia duniani kwenye uzalishaji wa mafuta, gesi, chuma, dhahabu etc Russia imetengeneza mfumo mpya ikishirikiana na Brazil, South Africa, China (BRICS) ushirika unaoongeza wanachama kila mara.

Hii BRICS ni ushirika unaomtisha sana America na wenzake maana hawajui BRICS watafanya nini siku zijazo.

Ukizamia zaidi utaona Russia haijayumba sana kwa sababu wao ndio walezi wa uchumi wa Ulaya. Pili, huu ushirika wa BRICS unawashtua sana wahafidhina ndiposa wanalazimika ku-recalculate Risk and Returns kila wanapotaka kuwabana zaidi Russia.

my cents!

 

[zitto junior]

Pili, Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines hazipo kwa kila nchi duniani, ndiyo maana uhaba wa dola umekuwa mkubwa. Siyo kila nchi inaweza kwenda kuchukua dola inavyotaka

Kumbe Kuna control variables? Kumbe demand ya dollar Bado ipo juu ila Kuna limitations kwenye accessibility ya Dollar?

Sasa mpaka hapo hoja yako iliyosema QE imefanyika zaidi ya mahitaji SI KWELI.

Yaani ulidai Dollar velocity yake ipo chini ukadai ni surplus tu requirements then hapa unadai issue sio wingi Bali Limitations to accessibility na sio kwamba Hakuna demand ya US Dollars?

Wow this is more contradicting

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Kumbe Kuna control variables? Kumbe demand ya dollar Bado ipo juu ila Kuna limitations kwenye accessibility ya Dollar?

Sasa mpaka hapo hoja yako iliyosema QE imefanyika zaidi ya mahitaji SI KWELI.

Yaani ulidai Dollar velocity yake ipo chini ukadai ni surplus tu requirements then hapa unadai issue sio wingi Bali Limitations to accessibility na sio kwamba Hakuna demand ya US Dollars?

Wow this is more contradicting

Mkuu, Unafahamu maana ya Liquidity Swap Lines na zinafanyeje kazi, ???
Halafu pia nisaidie ni kwanini hayo mataifa ndiyo yanapewa dola kirahisi, ???
Tukipata haya majibu mawili tutakuwa na mwanga wa kufahamu kuhusu volume..Nasubiri!

Econometrician hebu tusaidiane hapa, Liquidity Swap Lines zinafanyaje kazi,....!!​

 

[zitto junior]

commodities are usually sold at their marginal cost of production.

Hii sio kweli, bei ya parachichi kutoka mexico inalingana na bei ya parachichi kutoka Tanzania? Mind you mexico is likely to incur less production costs due to economies of scale/agglomeration kuliko Tanzania ambapo poor technology implies more costs kuproduce parachichi Moja. So in fact it all depends na demand and supply, kama Kuna scarcity ya matunda fulani say USA basi unaweza utilize the opportunity at premium prices and not necessarily based on cost of production.

Kingine hakuna price ceiling ya commodities eti usiuze parachichi Moja kwa dollar 70? Which is the same na finance economy ambako bei ya hisa za kampuni zinaweza kuwa both high and low depends na value inayokua attached kwa kampuni based on trends on how they perform in selling real products.

Huo mfano wa Apple umekazania lakini nilitoa mfano wa AZAM pia, tusicheze na kiingereza nadhani unanielewa nikisema kampuni inauza real commodities maana mwanzoni ulidai finance economy is all about selling shares, bonds, securities, debts etc yaani hakuna bidhaa za kushikika and that's my definition of COMMODITIES Ili kutenganisha na hizo FINANCIAL PRODUCTS.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Hii sio kweli, bei ya parachichi kutoka mexico inalingana na bei ya parachichi kutoka Tanzania? Mind you mexico is likely to incur less production costs due to economies of scale/agglomeration kuliko Tanzania ambapo poor technology implies more costs kuproduce parachichi Moja. So in fact it all depends na demand and supply, kama Kuna scarcity ya matunda fulani say USA basi unaweza utilize the opportunity at premium prices and not necessarily based on cost of production.

Comprehension, Comprehension mkuu Zitto Jr,

Kwenye soko la dunia (International Market) chini ya WTO Rules kuna utaribu maalumu wa bidhaa kuwekewa bei (Benchmark) za pamoja ili kuziua suala zima la mfumuko au sababu nyingine ambazo zinaweza kuvuruga masoko. Lakini pia, hili halimaanishi kwamba bei hazitatofautiana baina ya nchi na nchi, endapo wameamua kufanya makubaliano kwenye sekta ya kilimo. Mwisho wa siku hili unalolizungumza wewe, huwa linatokea na husababisha kitu kwenye biashara ya kimataifa tunaita, The Spaghetti Bowl Effect.

Ndiyo maana leo hii mataifa ya G7 yanaweka Price-Cap kupambana na The Spaghetti Bowl Effect kutokana na mikataba mingine ya kibiashara za bidhaa (Commodities) inayokiuka utaratibu wa uuzwaji wa sheria za kibiashara ambao unakubalika. OPEC+ wanapandisha bei kwa kupunguza kasi ya uzalishaji. This is the Spaghetti Bowl Effect.

Key words: Essential Commodities Sold in International Markets. Sehemu kama Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), London Bullion Markets Association (LBMA), London Metals Exchange, OPEC, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), au kupitia taasisi za kikanda mfano ndani ya EU, NAFTA, etc. Mpaka sasa duniani kuna, 50 Commodity Markets which are physical and virtual, ambapo wanauza bidhaa 100 muhimu duniani (Hard + Soft Commodities)

Key takeway: Ndiyo bei za bidhaa zinaweza za bidhaa zinaweza kubadilika kutokana na sababu kadhaa wa kadhaaa (Catalysts). Ila ukweli ni kwamba, masoko ya bidhaa (Commodity Markets) huweka bei ya pamoja kwenye soko la dunia kwenye bidhaa muhimu kama nishati na chakula.​

 

[TIMING]

Tokea mwaka 1944, baada ya kutengeneza mfumo wa Bretton-Woods hakuna taifa ambalo limewahi kuwa na uchumi mkubwa kama Marekani. Kufika mwaka 1945, Marekani ilikuwa inamiliki nusu nzima ya uchumi wa dunia. Fedha ya Marekani ikishikiliwa na dhahabu (Gold-Backed) ilikuwa ndiyo inatumiwa kwa kiwango kikubwa kwenye biashara zote za kimataifa.

Mwaka 1957, baada ya Raisi Gamal Abdel Nasser wa Misri kutaifisha mfereji wa Suez, Uingereza, Ufaransa na Israel waliunda mkakati wa kuvamia Misri ili kumtoa Nasser. Mkakati huu ulikufa kibudu baada ya Raisi wa Marekani General Dwight Eisenhower kuwachimba mkwara mzito Waingereza kwamba wangeacha kununua hati-fungani (Sovereign Bonds) za Uingereza na nyingine wangeziuza, jambo ambalo lingeangusha uchumi wa Uingereza.

Kiufupi, baada ya hili kutokea Raisi wa Ufaransa General Charles De Gaulle alilalamika na kusema kwamba "The dollar gives America an exorbitant privilege in international financial system". Akimaanisha kwamba dola inampa Marekani nguvu iliyomithirika kwenye uchumi wa dunia dhidi ya mataifa mengine. Kiufupi Marekani akikutoa kwenye mfumo wake wa kifedha, lazima uumie.

Wataalamu wanatumia vipimo (Metrics) kama GDP na PPP kupima uchumi wa dunia. Ukitumia kipimo cha GDP, nadhani Marekani ndiyo taifa lenye uchumi mkubwa zaidi duniani likifuatiwa na Uchina. Uchumi wa Marekani peke yake ni asilimia 24% ya uchumi wa dunia (Global GDP). Kiufupi ni kwamba, all financial roads lead to America.

Marekani hayuko peke yake, anashirikiana na wenzake wa kule Ulaya (European Union) na wenzake wa chama cha mabwanyenye wa dunia almaarufu kama G7. Ukichanganya uchumi wa Marekani, Ufaransa, Uingereza, Ujerumani, Italia, Canada na Japan, ambao ndiyo nchi tajiri zaidi duniani unapata asilimia 30.7% ya uchumi wa dunia (Global GDP).

Kiuhalisia, haya mataifa saba ndiyo yanayoendesha uchumi wa dunia kupitia mifumo waliyoitengeneza baada ya mwaka 1945. Viwanda vikubwa duniani ni vyao, masoko makubwa ya hisa ni yao, mabenki makubwa duniani ni yao, wao ndiyo wanaongoza katika kuzikopesha fedha nchi nyingine na wao ndiyo wanaongoza kwa kuuza huduma zaidi hapa duniani.

Maswali yangu ya kiuchumi ni haya yafuatayo:
Mosi, kwanini Urusi ambayo ni asilimia 4% tu ya uchumi wa dunia (Share in Global GDP) bado haijaanguka baada ya mataifa makubwa yanayomilikia asilimia 30.7% ya uchumiwa dunia kuwawekea vikwazo vikali ?

Pili, kwanini makampuni ya Urusi ya nishati ndiyo yameongoza duniani kwa kuuza zaidi nishati, ilhali yamewekewa vikwazi baada vikali ? Takwimu zilizotolewa na Marekani yenyewe zinasema kiujumla mashirika ya nishati ya Urusi yameuza zaidi na kupata faida kipindi hiki cha vita na vikwazo kuliko kipindi kingine chochote. Tatizo liko wapi hapa ?

Tatu, Je, tutegemee kwamba kuna siku hivi vikwazo vitafanya kazi na vitauangusha uchumi wa Urusi kama ambavyo Raisi Biden alisema mwaka 2022 kabla ya uvamizi kuanza ? Alisema kwamba uchumi wa Urusi ungeanguka ndani ya wiki chache tu, sasa ni mwaka na zaidi. Mataifa ya Magharibi yamefanikiwa au tuendelee kusubiri ?​

Russia kawekewa vikwazo but havimuathiri

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Russia kawekewa vikwazo but havimuathiri

Vikwazo vinauma, lakini havileti matokeo yaliyokusudiwa. Kuna kitabu nimekisoma, kimeandikwa na Nicholas Muelder kinaitwa, "The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanction as a tool of modern war". Kinaeleze historia ya vikwazo vya uchumi. Kuna sehemu kasema Uingereza wakati ndiyo taifa kubwa duniani, kipindi cha vita ya kwanza ya dunia, aliiwekea vikwazo Uturuki, vikaua watu laki 5 lakini vikabuma. Uturuki iliangushwa kijeshi siyo kiuchumi. Nimesoma nikawaza sana:

​

 

[zitto junior]

Huu mchakato mzima wa kutengeneza bidhaa, kuipa thamani na kuiuza kwenye soko la hisa, ndiyo Finance Economy yenyewe.

Hii sio sahihi financial markets exist independently from the companies and products. Yaani lazima kampuni, bidhaa na thamani ziwe in existence kabla ya kudetermine bei ya hisa zake kwenye soko.

Ila Kwa jinsi unavyoeleza hapa ni kana kwamba Simu za Apple hazikua na thamani attached to them till iwe listed kwenye soko la hisa? This is incorrect.

Kiufupi Apple inaingiza pesa nyingi kuliko Mapato ya Mataifa yote ya Afrika kwa thamani ya BIDHAA sio kwa mauzo ya hisa za hewani hewani.

Kingine bidhaa HAIPEWI THAMANI Bali soko huria ndio Lina determine thamani ya hisa au bidhaa husika. Ndio maana kukitokea tu mtikisiko wa uchumi utasikia hisa za kampuni Fulani zimeshuka thamani sababu Kuna speculation kuwa inaweza collapse au kufeli sokoni, so speculation, leverage, demand, market shocks, volatility rates, the state of the economy au uwepo wa IPOs mpya unaweza shusha thamani ya REAL BIDHAA au HISA ZA KAMPUNI na sio kwamba thamani inapangwa tu kwa maamuzi ya mtu.

That's what I wanted to clarify Ili twende sawa.

 

[uttoh2002]

Umepapasa papasa tu hili jibu lako hujajibu kisayansi ya Uchumi au wewe ndio Waziri wetu wa Fefha nini??

Wewe umejibu wapi?

 

[zitto junior]

Nne, kiuchumi bei za Commodities haziwaathiri wanunuaji na wauzaji(Buyers and Sellers), bali hata watumiaji (Consumers). Bei ya mafuta au chakula zikipanda, tunaumia wote duniani. Hata wale wazalishaji wa simu kama APPLE huathirika. Ila bei za Iphone au Xiaomi zikipanda, nani anaathirika, ilhali hata Iphone sijawahi kumiliki mimi, ???

Hapana professor ni makosa makubwa kutaka kupima direct effects kwenye uchumi na kuacha indirect effects.

Mfano bei ya iphone ikipanda watu wataenda nunua cheaper phones with low security kuliko iphone means watakua prone to more cyber attacks which amounts to billions of losses in financial hacks. Same to cloud storage kama bei ikipanda watu wataacha and can affect their vulnerability ambayo inaleta losses tajwa hapo juu.

Lakini pia kupanda kwa bei ya gadgets kunatengeneza loss ambayo ingeepukika kwa kuwepo kwa teknolojia. Mfano shamba ambalo lingetumia drone kumwagilia viwatilifu shambani litaacha sababu ya gharama hivyo kuleta hasara which would've been evaded if technology prices zilishuka.

Same to bei say ya AI au Big Data ikiwa kubwa waka revert to manual processing Ina maana kama mzigo ungekua processed kwa wiki mbili Sasa utakua processed kwa mwezi mzima je hapo hakuna losses?

Kwa tafiti ya GSMA hii hapa ndio findings zao whether mobile technology affects GDP, using 169 countries between 2001 to 2017.

Firstly, we find that mobile technology has significantly driven GDP in the 2000–2017 period – a 10%
increase in mobile adoption increased GDP by 0.5% to 1.2%, with these effects remaining broadly
stable over the period analysed and materialising over and above fixed infrastructure. Second, we
found the subsequent rollout of 2G, 3G and 4G networks has driven increasing impacts. Specifically,
mobile’s baseline economic impact increases by about 15% when connections are upgraded to 3G. For
connections upgrading from 2G to 4G, the economic impact of mobile increases by approximately
25%

Ni ajabu sana professor wa calibre Yako ku underestimate the real cost of underutilized technology kwenye uchumi. Na hiyo ni mobile technology Bado sijaongelea ya cloud storage, information systems za mabenki, cyber security systems, internet n.k ?

 

[zitto junior]

Lakini pia, hili halimaanishi kwamba bei hazitatofautiana baina ya nchi na nchi, endapo wameamua kufanya makubaliano kwenye sekta ya kilimo

Mfano hao Mexico Wana makubaliano ya NAFTA na USA and Canada so obvious kama Kuna muuza maparachichi wa mexico ni rahisi kupeleka mzigo kwa bei nzuri kuliko mkulima wa Tanzania ambaye anaweza kuwa na tariff kubwa kuuza kule hivyo bei kuwa priced out of competition.

Maadam umegusia WTO naomba uangalia tariff schedule za bidhaa utakuta bidhaa ambazo say zinakua produced na China lazima tariff iwe juu kuliko zile bidhaa ambazo haziwi produced mle ndani, ila Kwa majirani Wanaingia some sort of agreement kuruhusu bidhaa zao so it's likely Mongolia kuuza bidhaa zake china kuliko mtanzania just simple economics.

Having said that, means prices are affected by varying issues na sio Whatever Price benchmarking you are talking about.

Tukubaliane uchumi sio zero sum game but rather the whole is greater than some of the parts!! Hivyo hata uchumi wa Marekani kudorora hauwezi kuwa caused na factor ya ukraine-Russia pekee Bali with other factors too.

 

[Mtoto wa nzi]

Hata NATO ikaamua kumpa full support ya zana za kijeshi Russia, sidhani kama itachukua wiki Russia kutapika maeneo aliyoteka.

NATO imeona mbali uwezekano wa matumizi ya Nuclear ktk hii vita, hii wanafanya waende step kwa step hapo Ukraine.

Tukumbuke walipotenga bajeti ya miaka mitano kuisaidia Ukraine, watu waliwaona NATO kama wehu, waliona ukubwa wa Jeshi la Russia dhidi ya Ukraine basi vita isingechukua hata miezi mitatu.

Sasa kumbe ulitaka mjadala ujibiwe na wanauchumi waliosomea. Si ungeweka dokezo tangu mwanzo badala ya kuchoshana.
Na kilichofanya uulize maswali na unajua sio mchumi niliyesomea ni nini, mpaka pale nilipotaka unijibu ndio ukajua mimi sio mchumi

Burazaaa ulitoboa nyavu na kula Kona.... Kubali tu maji yalikuwa marefu sana kwako....

 

[zitto junior]

huweka bei ya pamoja kwenye soko la dunia kwenye bidhaa muhimu kama nishati na chakula.

I'm still trying to understand!! If that's the case why Kuna nchi zinafanya pegged forex exchange system yaani wako radhi pesa Yao ishuke thamani kulinganisha na dollar Ili wauze bidhaa nyingi Zaidi yaani one dollar gets you more products in china than in say-France.

Means hata hizo commodity prices Kuna nchi zitahitaji more dollars kununua mafuta hayo hayo kuliko nchi nyingine kwa factors nyingi sana kama demand ya eneo husika, umbali, landlocked, suppliers n.k so hata siku Moja bei haiwezi kuwa Moja ndio maana Kuna arbitrage ambapo traders wanapata faida kupitia hizo discrepancy za bei na exchange rates kwenye masoko tofauti ya commodities.

Embu tueleweshane hapo

 

[zitto junior]

Overvaluation of Product

Hii ipo hata kwenye commodities maana bei huamuliwa na demand mfano mafuta yakiadimika bei itaongezeka tu sababu ya hizo hizo speculations (kwamba mafuta yatapanda zaidi) au sababu ya over valuation of products.

Mfano unakumbuka Ile dhahabu waliodai imetokea Tanzania na kuuzwa kwenye mnada Dubai kwa bei almost mara 10 ya original price. Au Kuna wakati mafuta tulinunua kwa bei kubwa kuliko hata Zanzibar tu hapo!! Au hata cobalt inaweza panda thamani sababu ya watu kuona demand ya kutengeneza gadgets ila Tena ikipatikana mbadala demand ya cobalt itashuka au hata wakitokea wachimbaji wengi thamani yake itapungua itakua kama ya cement tu.

So sio kweli over valuation and speculations zipo kwenye financial markets pekee.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Hii sio sahihi financial markets exist independently from the companies and products. Yaani lazima kampuni, bidhaa na thamani ziwe in existence kabla ya kudetermine bei ya hisa zake kwenye soko.

Ila Kwa jinsi unavyoeleza hapa ni kana kwamba Simu za Apple hazikua na thamani attached to them till iwe listed kwenye soko la hisa? This is incorrect.

Kiufupi Apple inaingiza pesa nyingi kuliko Mapato ya Mataifa yote ya Afrika kwa thamani ya BIDHAA sio kwa mauzo ya hisa za hewani hewani.

Kingine bidhaa HAIPEWI THAMANI Bali soko huria ndio Lina determine thamani ya hisa au bidhaa husika. Ndio maana kukitokea tu mtikisiko wa uchumi utasikia hisa za kampuni Fulani zimeshuka thamani sababu Kuna speculation kuwa inaweza collapse au kufeli sokoni, so speculation, leverage, demand, market shocks, volatility rates, the state of the economy au uwepo wa IPOs mpya unaweza shusha thamani ya REAL BIDHAA au HISA ZA KAMPUNI na sio kwamba thamani inapangwa tu kwa maamuzi ya mtu.

That's what I wanted to clarify Ili twende sawa.

Hahaha, hapa nimecheka sana kwakweli..!
Legally speaking, considering The Capital Market and Securities Act, CAP 79, of Tanzania, A Financial Market is a generic term which encompasses Trading Companies, Money Markets and Capital Markets. It's a diabolical assertion that, financial markets exist independently from companies. Where did you get this, ???

Companies/Corporations like central banks, commercial banks and other financial institutions which sell securities are a part and parcel of financial markets. They determine value of securities like shares/ stocks. But this discombobulation you're facing is due to a fact that you mix up things, as I verily reminded you earlier of Comprehension.

First off, if a company like Apple fares well it is not because of iphone Products, but because a company itself is doing well in sales of products. And yes, giant reaping from the proceeds of iPhone products could be one of the reasons, but not the main one. Apple Stocks have a lot to with the company itself, than products alone.
Secondly, when Apple values the price of shares to be sold to the public, entities like banks consider a lot of things not only the values of iphones as you relentlessly claim. Legally, they consider INTRINSIC VALUE OF A COMPANY not MARKET VALUE OF A COMPANY. (You can bank on this). Your arguments have mixed up the two, treating them as the same while they aren't.

NB 1: One, the value of products like iphones are determined by Apple itself. The corporation considers many things like, the cost of production, governmental regulations, intellectual property etc. Here they can choose to overvalue a damn thing. But, the prices of Apple shares, initially they are determined by many factors, considered by regulators on long term basis. This is what we call Intrinsic Value. When Apple products like iphones are selling well in the Market, the current value measured is what we call, a Market Value. And legally, this is a sympathy value.
NB 2. Sheria ya makampuni nchini Tanzania haitofautiani sana na sheria nyingine huko duniani.
Haya sasa mchumi, nasubiri majawabu yangu kuhusu, utendaji kazi wa Liquidity Swap Lines.....!​

 

[dong yi]

Hayo maneno yalisema na Prof Halford Mackinder (The Father of Geopolitics) kwenye chapisho lake la mwaka 1904 liitwalo The Geographical Pivot of History. Mle ndani alianzisha kitu kiitwacho The Heartland Theory, na kusema taifa lolote litakalofanikiwa kuitawala Urusi (The Heartland) ndiyo litaitawala dunia.

Kiufupi, hata Adolf Hitler anapovamia Urusi mwaka 1931 ilikuwa kwasababu aliamini katika hii falsafa, ambayo wanafalsafa wengine kama Henry Kissinger, George Kenan na Zbigniew Brezinsky waliifuata.
View attachment 2702409

NB: Ila je, hili lina ukweli wowote au yalikuwa ni mawazo tu ya wasomi wa Ulaya ???​

nadhani lina ukweli hata leo, eurasia (heartland) pamoja na rimland ni maeneo yenye utajiri mkubwa sana,

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

Hii ipo hata kwenye commodities maana bei huamuliwa na demand mfano mafuta yakiadimika bei itaongezeka tu sababu ya hizo hizo speculations (kwamba mafuta yatapanda zaidi) au sababu ya over valuation of products.

Mfano unakumbuka Ile dhahabu waliodai imetokea Tanzania na kuuzwa kwenye mnada Dubai kwa bei almost mara 10 ya original price. Au Kuna wakati mafuta tulinunua kwa bei kubwa kuliko hata Zanzibar tu hapo!! Au hata cobalt inaweza panda thamani sababu ya watu kuona demand ya kutengeneza gadgets ila Tena ikipatikana mbadala demand ya cobalt itashuka au hata wakitokea wachimbaji wengi thamani yake itapungua itakua kama ya cement tu.

So sio kweli over valuation and speculations zipo kwenye financial markets pekee.

Bwahahaha, ila Zitto Jr unanichekesha sana.
But I have enjoyed your great zeal for knowledge. It is unmatched and I applaud you for this.

Kuhusu dhahabu yetu ya Dubai. Ule ulikuwa ni mnada wa madini, kisheria tunaita, A Mineral Auction. Kisheria hiki ni kitu cha tofauti kabisa na masoko ya bidhaa (Commodity Markets) ambayo yako 50 duniani kote yakiuza bidhaa muhimu 100 ambazo zimeshaorodhoshwa na bei zao. Wanafanya hivi ili kukwepa matatizo ya mfumuko wa bei bila sababu ambao unaweza kusababisha matatizo kwenye masoko. Mnada wa madini hauwezi kusababisha matatizo kwenye masoko.

Mfano, hapa Tanzania, The Mining Act, CAP 123, 2019 kupitia kanuni ndogo (Regulations GN 418, 2019 inatambua minada ya madini. Ukisoma Regulation 3, 5 na 15 utaelewa zaidi. Hii minada inafanyika ndani ya nchi, na makampuni makubwa huja kununua na mwishowe kuyapeleka haya madini kwenye soko la dunia. Hata kule Dubai ilikuwa hivyo. Ndiyo maana, Tanzania peke yetu tunauza madini ya Tanzanite, lakini kwenye soko la Dunia utakuta nchi nyingine kama Kenya au Rwanda ndiyo wanatambulika kama wauzaji wakubwa.

Hivi ndivyo dunia ilivyo mzee, ukishelewa mifumo basi utaishi salama bila kudanganyika....

Haya tuendelee ndugu yangu, mimi nasubiri majawabu yangu tu...​

 

[zitto junior]

financial markets exist independently from companies. Where did you get this, ???

Swiss port Ina trade DSE but Swiss port existed as a company way before it was listed.

Same to Vodacom Tanzania limited imeuza some hisa kupitia DSE ila haimaanishi Vodacom does not exists outside the capital markets.

Being listed is an option Sasa how comes useme financial markets ndio bidhaa sijui thamani ya kampuni ndio inakua determined as if the trading companies start existing after being listed!!

Nadhani hapo ndio tunashindwana, yaani unaweka mawazo kuwa trading companies Zinauza financial products pekee however I'm clarifying that TRADING COMPANIES EXIST INDEPENDENTLY prior to Being listed in the CAPITAL MARKETS.

 

[MALCOM LUMUMBA]

I'm still trying to understand!! If that's the case why Kuna nchi zinafanya pegged forex exchange system yaani wako radhi pesa Yao ishuke thamani kulinganisha na dollar Ili wauze bidhaa nyingi Zaidi yaani one dollar gets you more products in china than in say-France.

Hao wanaofanya hivyo siyo, Emerging Markets/Emerging Markets kama sisi ambao uchumi wetu ni madafu tu, na tunaagiza hadi chupi za kuvaa kutoka Uchina. Taifa kama Uchina ni Developed Market, na linafanya hivyo ili pesa yake ishuke thamani dhidi ya dola ili liuze bidhaa nyingi nje ya nchi yake hasahasa kule Marekani.

Hivyo kupata dola kwake siyo shida kwasabubu yeye ndiyo soko kubwa la kibiashara la Marekani. Wamarekani watafanya yote, lakini mwisho wa siku ni lazima wapeleke madola yao kwa wakomunsti wa Uchina kwasababu ndiyo kiwanda cha dunia.

Nitakupa kitabu kizuri, kimeyaweka haya mambo kwa urahisi mno....​

 

[zitto junior]

They determine value of securities like shares/ stocks.

No company determines its value but rather the value of it's shares are determined by market forces ambazo tumeshaongelea huko juu kama speculation, patents, IP, demand, n.k

Na unakosea umetaja mabenki tu yaani service oriented unasahau Kuna kampuni kama za kilimo say JATU PLC Iko listed ila inahusika na mazao Sasa JATU huwezi sema Inauza financial products ndio part and parcel wakati Ina real products inauza za kilimo.

Why are you trying to separate services from products whilst over emphasizing that financial markets purely are service companies and have no real products whatsoever and insisting commodities ni purely REAL PRODUCTS ilihali nje ya financial markets/economy nchi kama India au Macau Zina rely kwenye service sector kuboost GDP.

Tuondoe huo mtazamo kwanza ndio tutaelewana