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Tanzania ni mfano wa kuigwa katika kupambana na kuenea kwa Corona
Tanzania ni mfano wa kuigwa katika kupambana na kuenea kwa Corona
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Tanzania President John Magufuli: The man who declared victory over coronavirus
By Basillioh Mutahi
BBC News, Nairobi
Published19 hours ago
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
Tanzania President John Magufuli's idiosyncratic handling of the coronavirus pandemic has put the country in the global spotlight. Now one of the region's most unconventional leaders is seeking a second term.
When Covid-19 arrived in Tanzania, President Magufuli didn't believe in people staying at home. He wanted them to get into the churches and mosques to pray.
"Coronavirus, which is a devil, cannot survive in the body of Christ... It will burn instantly," Magufuli, a devout Christian, pronounced on 22 March from the altar of a church in Tanzania's capital, Dodoma.
He would later speak against social distancing and the wearing of masks, and questioned the efficacy of testing after sending various animals and fruit to be checked for the virus - he announced that a papaya, a quail and a goat had all tested positive. The president said he could not countenance closing down the economy, and excoriated neighbouring countries for doing so.
Although many might dismiss Magufuli's approach as eccentric, it is emblematic of his combative style.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionMagufuli has also advocated traditional medicine such as steam inhalation in the fight against coronavirus
When John Magufuli was declared president on his 56th birthday in October 2015, he seemed to be the sort of person Tanzania needed — an efficient, incorruptible president. His results-oriented actions were also framed as applicable to other African countries - a dose of what the continent needed to deal with its governance issues.
On the very first day of his presidency, he sent a stark message that he would not tolerate the country's chronic absenteeism in its civil service, when he visited the finance ministry offices asking for the whereabouts of those not at work.
He also purged thousands of so-called "ghost workers" - essentially non-existent employees - from the public payroll, and fired officials considered corrupt or under-performing, in public. Sometimes this was even done live on television.
And he clamped down on what he saw as extravagant spending, cancelling Independence Day celebrations for the first time in 54 years. Instead, he ordered a public clean-up, getting his own hands dirty by picking up rubbish outside State House.
In the first year of Magufuli's presidency, this approach earned him a great deal of praise, inspiring the Twitter hashtag: #WhatWouldMagufuliDo. While some posts mocked the president's austere policies - for example: "Was about to buy myself an oven then I asked myself #WhatWouldMagufuliDo" with a photo of a saucepan suspended over candles - others called for more African leaders to emulate his leadership style. In 2017, a Kenyan professor went so far as to call for the "Magufulication" of Africa during an address at the University of Dar es Salaam.
But from the outset, it was also clear there was a darker side to his leadership - that a number of his initiatives would slowly chip away at the country's democratic space.
The rap song which came true
In January 2016, barely two months into his term, his administration announced that state TV would no longer broadcast live parliamentary proceedings, as a cost-cutting measure. The opposition saw this as censorship as it was among the few ways it could hold the government to account. It planned demonstrations against the ban, but the government responded by banning all protests.
Another example of such censorship was Magufuli's response to a 2017 song by popular Tanzanian rapper Nay wa Mitego. Less than a day after its release, Mitego found himself in police custody.
"Is there still freedom of expression in this country?" the raspy-voiced artist, whose real name is Emmanuel Elibariki, had rapped.
"What if I speak and later find myself at Central [Police Station]?"
"Are there leaders who make stupid decisions? There are!"
"Are there those who miss [former president] Jakaya Kikwete? There are!"
He was accused of insulting the president and maligning the government. The fear he sang about had come true - he was now being detained at the Central Police Station in Dar es Salaam that he referenced in the lyrics.
Although President Magufuli ordered Nay wa Mitego's release just a day later, he advised that the song should be reworked to include lyrics about other problems in the society, such as tax cheats.
Magufuli's administration has continued to roll out a cocktail of bold and unusual directives, introducing new laws intended to increase revenue from multinational mining firms.
In 2017, Acacia Mining, a subsidiary of Canadian parent company Barrick Gold, was slapped with an incredible $190bn (£145bn) tax bill over royalties the government said it owed, though it denied any wrongdoing. As part of the settlement, Barrick eventually agreed to pay $300m after buying out Acacia, and a new operating company, Twiga Minerals, was formed with the government owning 16% of the joint venture. Barrick and the Tanzanian government also agreed to the sharing of unspecified future economic benefits from the mines on a 50-50 basis.
Then there was his highly contentious decree that Tanzanian schoolgirls who get pregnant cannot return to school even after they have given birth. And in 2018, Tanzania passed a law to punish anyone questioning official statistics, making the state the sole custodian of data. The World Bank said the changes were "deeply worrying".
Getting Tanzania's transport moving
But critics agree that Magufuli has contributed to Tanzania's development in recent years, investing in several large infrastructure projects such as the creation of a standard gauge railway to connect the country with its regional neighbours, the expansion of major highways, and the construction of a bus rapid transit system in the commercial hub of Dar es Salaam. He has also increased electricity production to the grid which has reduced the need for power rationing.
And he has revived the state-run national airline, Air Tanzania, which, plagued by debt and mismanagement for years, was effectively grounded with only one plane in its fleet when he took office.
The president appointed a new board and chief executive of the company, which has gone on to purchase six new planes and integrate others which were under maintenance.
The leader of the East African nation has also introduced free education for all Tanzanians in public schools up to the fourth year of secondary school.
'Data darkness' over coronavirus
But it is Magufuli's handling of the coronavirus pandemic which has brought particular international attention to his governance in recent months.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionTanzania's markets, shops and workplaces have remained open throughout the pandemic
After the first case on 16 March, the only immediate shutdown was of schools and learning institutions. It took about a month for the country to bring in other restrictions - such as halting sporting activities and closing borders.
Buses and public transport carried fewer passengers, and numbers at pubs and restaurants were restricted, but World Health Organization (WHO) Africa director Matshidiso Moeti accused Tanzania of acting slowly to curb the spread of the virus.
"In Tanzania we have observed that physical distancing, including the prohibition of mass gatherings, took some time to happen and we believe that these might have been probable factors that led to a rapid increase in cases there," the WHO official said in April.
Markets and other workplaces stayed open as normal, as did places of worship.
"We have had a number of viral diseases, including Aids and measles. Our economy must come first. It must not sleep… Life must go on," Magufuli has said.
"Countries [elsewhere] in Africa will be coming here to buy food in the years to come… they will be suffering because of shutting down their economy."
In early June, Magufuli declared the country "coronavirus-free", and the health ministry also announced the closure of coronavirus treatment and isolation centres, which had been set up across the country.
Given Tanzania stopped publishing numbers of its coronavirus cases in May, it is difficult to verify how well the country's approach has worked. The country had 509 infections when it published its final tally on 29 April.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionSchools were shut down for several weeks, with students returning in June
"The country operates in data darkness," Tanzanian analyst Aidan Eyakuze noted recently.
Hospitals around the country appear to be operating normally, though independent media and NGOs have not been able to check that themselves as access has been restricted. In July, doctors told the BBC that hospitals were not overwhelmed.
'I know what it means to be poor'
Magufuli was keen to deal with the virus on his own terms, rather than being influenced by the actions of other regional and international leaders. He styles his governance after Tanzania's first president, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, who was always fiercely independent.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionMagufuli has cited founder of the nation Julius Nyerere as an influence on his leadership
"Our founding father was not someone to be directed to be told what to do… Those who devise these kinds of rules [lockdown] are used to making these directives that our founding father refused," Magufuli said, referring to Nyerere's habit of rejecting advice coming from Western nations, who the committed socialist distrusted.
Magufuli grew up under Nyerere's rule in a village in north-western Chato district along the shore of Lake Victoria, and says his modest background has inspired his own desire to work for the Tanzanian public.
"Our home was grass thatched, and like many boys I was assigned to herd cattle, as well as selling milk and fish to support my family," he said during his 2015 campaign.
"I know what it means to be poor. I will strive to help improve people's welfare," he added.
After school he worked for a year as a senior school maths and chemistry teacher before returning to further education. He worked for a few years as an industrial chemist before resigning in 1995 to run for the parliamentary seat in his own Chato constituency. After taking that seat, he quickly rose through the ranks to be appointed deputy minister for public works.
The department's senior minister, Mama Anna Abdallah, says his no-nonsense style, focused on efficiency and results, was quickly evident. In his first year in the job he succeeded in steamrolling through the building of a long-delayed road.
"He is a person who seems to want to leave a legacy… That's his character, he wants to make sure things are done properly," she told me.
By 2015, Magufuli wanted to run for the presidency. He is said to have been considered a consensus candidate for the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party - which had been in power for 54 years. Analysts say his lack of a political base was seen as an asset rather than a liability, his name not associated with corruption unlike some of his contemporaries.
The elections were the tightest in the country's history, but Magufuli pulled ahead to win with 58% of the vote.
Threatened for speaking out
As Tanzania approaches the vote for a new presidential term, calls for other regional leaders to emulate Magufuli's style have long diminished. He has faced criticism from political opponents, civil society and Western countries, who say he is oppressing the opposition, curtailing press freedom and holding foreign companies to ransom.
But as a president who has often styled himself as a stout African nationalist and a devout Catholic waging war against foreign powers seeking to exploit the East African nation, Magufuli is unlikely to be bothered by such censure.
In the country, few have stood up to him, but for some of those who have, the consequences have been grave.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionThe detention of journalists such as Erick Kabendera has been cited as an example of increasing repression against the media
The president's pronouncements are often final, says Zitto Kabwe, an opposition leader who has been arrested more than a dozen times since 2016.
"The state wants us to keep quiet, they threaten us. The best weapon for us is to speak up and radicalise even more," he told the AP news agency in July.
The main opposition candidate in the forthcoming election is Tundu Lissu from the Chadema party, who survived an assassination attempt in 2017, and required nearly three years in hospital abroad for treatment and rehabilitation. No-one has been convicted for the attempt on his life, and there have been no updates on the police investigation. A few weeks ago he was barred from campaigning by the electoral commission for seven days for alleged ethics violations regarding remarks he made against the president.
But while Magufuli discourages challenges to his authority, he is keen on speaking directly to members of the public and hearing what they have to say.
At the end of July, he chose to be driven rather than flown home from a state funeral so he could stop along the way to listen to bystanders' concerns. He stopped in Mkuranga and listened to their issues - about grabbed land, marital problems, women who had been disinherited, a school without desks. The president tried to find solutions, including holding a fundraiser on the spot.
An expat who worked for the multinational Telco says some of the country's civilians seem to genuinely love a president who gets things done.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionThe party Magufuli is standing for has never lost the presidency
As the fight for the presidency draws to a close, Magufuli has the advantage of incumbency, and is backed by a party that has never lost the presidency.
Opposition candidate Tundu Lissu is promising economic growth and respect for human rights. The other key opposition contender is Bernard Membe, a former minister and member of the CCM central committee, who is standing for the ACT-Wazalendo party.
If Magufuli does win a second term, he has promised to continue with infrastructural development and improve people's livelihoods.
But unless his style of governance changes, some opposition activists, independent journalists and critics will fear for their future
Tanzania President John Magufuli: The man who declared victory over coronavirus
By Basillioh Mutahi
BBC News, Nairobi
Published19 hours ago
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
Tanzania President John Magufuli's idiosyncratic handling of the coronavirus pandemic has put the country in the global spotlight. Now one of the region's most unconventional leaders is seeking a second term.
When Covid-19 arrived in Tanzania, President Magufuli didn't believe in people staying at home. He wanted them to get into the churches and mosques to pray.
"Coronavirus, which is a devil, cannot survive in the body of Christ... It will burn instantly," Magufuli, a devout Christian, pronounced on 22 March from the altar of a church in Tanzania's capital, Dodoma.
He would later speak against social distancing and the wearing of masks, and questioned the efficacy of testing after sending various animals and fruit to be checked for the virus - he announced that a papaya, a quail and a goat had all tested positive. The president said he could not countenance closing down the economy, and excoriated neighbouring countries for doing so.
Although many might dismiss Magufuli's approach as eccentric, it is emblematic of his combative style.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionMagufuli has also advocated traditional medicine such as steam inhalation in the fight against coronavirus
When John Magufuli was declared president on his 56th birthday in October 2015, he seemed to be the sort of person Tanzania needed — an efficient, incorruptible president. His results-oriented actions were also framed as applicable to other African countries - a dose of what the continent needed to deal with its governance issues.
On the very first day of his presidency, he sent a stark message that he would not tolerate the country's chronic absenteeism in its civil service, when he visited the finance ministry offices asking for the whereabouts of those not at work.
He also purged thousands of so-called "ghost workers" - essentially non-existent employees - from the public payroll, and fired officials considered corrupt or under-performing, in public. Sometimes this was even done live on television.
And he clamped down on what he saw as extravagant spending, cancelling Independence Day celebrations for the first time in 54 years. Instead, he ordered a public clean-up, getting his own hands dirty by picking up rubbish outside State House.
In the first year of Magufuli's presidency, this approach earned him a great deal of praise, inspiring the Twitter hashtag: #WhatWouldMagufuliDo. While some posts mocked the president's austere policies - for example: "Was about to buy myself an oven then I asked myself #WhatWouldMagufuliDo" with a photo of a saucepan suspended over candles - others called for more African leaders to emulate his leadership style. In 2017, a Kenyan professor went so far as to call for the "Magufulication" of Africa during an address at the University of Dar es Salaam.
But from the outset, it was also clear there was a darker side to his leadership - that a number of his initiatives would slowly chip away at the country's democratic space.
The rap song which came true
In January 2016, barely two months into his term, his administration announced that state TV would no longer broadcast live parliamentary proceedings, as a cost-cutting measure. The opposition saw this as censorship as it was among the few ways it could hold the government to account. It planned demonstrations against the ban, but the government responded by banning all protests.
Another example of such censorship was Magufuli's response to a 2017 song by popular Tanzanian rapper Nay wa Mitego. Less than a day after its release, Mitego found himself in police custody.
"Is there still freedom of expression in this country?" the raspy-voiced artist, whose real name is Emmanuel Elibariki, had rapped.
"What if I speak and later find myself at Central [Police Station]?"
"Are there leaders who make stupid decisions? There are!"
"Are there those who miss [former president] Jakaya Kikwete? There are!"
He was accused of insulting the president and maligning the government. The fear he sang about had come true - he was now being detained at the Central Police Station in Dar es Salaam that he referenced in the lyrics.
Although President Magufuli ordered Nay wa Mitego's release just a day later, he advised that the song should be reworked to include lyrics about other problems in the society, such as tax cheats.
Magufuli's administration has continued to roll out a cocktail of bold and unusual directives, introducing new laws intended to increase revenue from multinational mining firms.
In 2017, Acacia Mining, a subsidiary of Canadian parent company Barrick Gold, was slapped with an incredible $190bn (£145bn) tax bill over royalties the government said it owed, though it denied any wrongdoing. As part of the settlement, Barrick eventually agreed to pay $300m after buying out Acacia, and a new operating company, Twiga Minerals, was formed with the government owning 16% of the joint venture. Barrick and the Tanzanian government also agreed to the sharing of unspecified future economic benefits from the mines on a 50-50 basis.
Then there was his highly contentious decree that Tanzanian schoolgirls who get pregnant cannot return to school even after they have given birth. And in 2018, Tanzania passed a law to punish anyone questioning official statistics, making the state the sole custodian of data. The World Bank said the changes were "deeply worrying".
Getting Tanzania's transport moving
But critics agree that Magufuli has contributed to Tanzania's development in recent years, investing in several large infrastructure projects such as the creation of a standard gauge railway to connect the country with its regional neighbours, the expansion of major highways, and the construction of a bus rapid transit system in the commercial hub of Dar es Salaam. He has also increased electricity production to the grid which has reduced the need for power rationing.
And he has revived the state-run national airline, Air Tanzania, which, plagued by debt and mismanagement for years, was effectively grounded with only one plane in its fleet when he took office.
The president appointed a new board and chief executive of the company, which has gone on to purchase six new planes and integrate others which were under maintenance.
The leader of the East African nation has also introduced free education for all Tanzanians in public schools up to the fourth year of secondary school.
'Data darkness' over coronavirus
But it is Magufuli's handling of the coronavirus pandemic which has brought particular international attention to his governance in recent months.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionTanzania's markets, shops and workplaces have remained open throughout the pandemic
After the first case on 16 March, the only immediate shutdown was of schools and learning institutions. It took about a month for the country to bring in other restrictions - such as halting sporting activities and closing borders.
Buses and public transport carried fewer passengers, and numbers at pubs and restaurants were restricted, but World Health Organization (WHO) Africa director Matshidiso Moeti accused Tanzania of acting slowly to curb the spread of the virus.
"In Tanzania we have observed that physical distancing, including the prohibition of mass gatherings, took some time to happen and we believe that these might have been probable factors that led to a rapid increase in cases there," the WHO official said in April.
Markets and other workplaces stayed open as normal, as did places of worship.
"We have had a number of viral diseases, including Aids and measles. Our economy must come first. It must not sleep… Life must go on," Magufuli has said.
"Countries [elsewhere] in Africa will be coming here to buy food in the years to come… they will be suffering because of shutting down their economy."
In early June, Magufuli declared the country "coronavirus-free", and the health ministry also announced the closure of coronavirus treatment and isolation centres, which had been set up across the country.
Given Tanzania stopped publishing numbers of its coronavirus cases in May, it is difficult to verify how well the country's approach has worked. The country had 509 infections when it published its final tally on 29 April.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionSchools were shut down for several weeks, with students returning in June
"The country operates in data darkness," Tanzanian analyst Aidan Eyakuze noted recently.
Hospitals around the country appear to be operating normally, though independent media and NGOs have not been able to check that themselves as access has been restricted. In July, doctors told the BBC that hospitals were not overwhelmed.
'I know what it means to be poor'
Magufuli was keen to deal with the virus on his own terms, rather than being influenced by the actions of other regional and international leaders. He styles his governance after Tanzania's first president, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, who was always fiercely independent.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionMagufuli has cited founder of the nation Julius Nyerere as an influence on his leadership
"Our founding father was not someone to be directed to be told what to do… Those who devise these kinds of rules [lockdown] are used to making these directives that our founding father refused," Magufuli said, referring to Nyerere's habit of rejecting advice coming from Western nations, who the committed socialist distrusted.
Magufuli grew up under Nyerere's rule in a village in north-western Chato district along the shore of Lake Victoria, and says his modest background has inspired his own desire to work for the Tanzanian public.
"Our home was grass thatched, and like many boys I was assigned to herd cattle, as well as selling milk and fish to support my family," he said during his 2015 campaign.
"I know what it means to be poor. I will strive to help improve people's welfare," he added.
After school he worked for a year as a senior school maths and chemistry teacher before returning to further education. He worked for a few years as an industrial chemist before resigning in 1995 to run for the parliamentary seat in his own Chato constituency. After taking that seat, he quickly rose through the ranks to be appointed deputy minister for public works.
The department's senior minister, Mama Anna Abdallah, says his no-nonsense style, focused on efficiency and results, was quickly evident. In his first year in the job he succeeded in steamrolling through the building of a long-delayed road.
"He is a person who seems to want to leave a legacy… That's his character, he wants to make sure things are done properly," she told me.
By 2015, Magufuli wanted to run for the presidency. He is said to have been considered a consensus candidate for the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party - which had been in power for 54 years. Analysts say his lack of a political base was seen as an asset rather than a liability, his name not associated with corruption unlike some of his contemporaries.
The elections were the tightest in the country's history, but Magufuli pulled ahead to win with 58% of the vote.
Threatened for speaking out
As Tanzania approaches the vote for a new presidential term, calls for other regional leaders to emulate Magufuli's style have long diminished. He has faced criticism from political opponents, civil society and Western countries, who say he is oppressing the opposition, curtailing press freedom and holding foreign companies to ransom.
But as a president who has often styled himself as a stout African nationalist and a devout Catholic waging war against foreign powers seeking to exploit the East African nation, Magufuli is unlikely to be bothered by such censure.
In the country, few have stood up to him, but for some of those who have, the consequences have been grave.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionThe detention of journalists such as Erick Kabendera has been cited as an example of increasing repression against the media
The president's pronouncements are often final, says Zitto Kabwe, an opposition leader who has been arrested more than a dozen times since 2016.
"The state wants us to keep quiet, they threaten us. The best weapon for us is to speak up and radicalise even more," he told the AP news agency in July.
The main opposition candidate in the forthcoming election is Tundu Lissu from the Chadema party, who survived an assassination attempt in 2017, and required nearly three years in hospital abroad for treatment and rehabilitation. No-one has been convicted for the attempt on his life, and there have been no updates on the police investigation. A few weeks ago he was barred from campaigning by the electoral commission for seven days for alleged ethics violations regarding remarks he made against the president.
But while Magufuli discourages challenges to his authority, he is keen on speaking directly to members of the public and hearing what they have to say.
At the end of July, he chose to be driven rather than flown home from a state funeral so he could stop along the way to listen to bystanders' concerns. He stopped in Mkuranga and listened to their issues - about grabbed land, marital problems, women who had been disinherited, a school without desks. The president tried to find solutions, including holding a fundraiser on the spot.
An expat who worked for the multinational Telco says some of the country's civilians seem to genuinely love a president who gets things done.
IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES
image captionThe party Magufuli is standing for has never lost the presidency
As the fight for the presidency draws to a close, Magufuli has the advantage of incumbency, and is backed by a party that has never lost the presidency.
Opposition candidate Tundu Lissu is promising economic growth and respect for human rights. The other key opposition contender is Bernard Membe, a former minister and member of the CCM central committee, who is standing for the ACT-Wazalendo party.
If Magufuli does win a second term, he has promised to continue with infrastructural development and improve people's livelihoods.
But unless his style of governance changes, some opposition activists, independent journalists and critics will fear for their future
Tanzania President John Magufuli: The man who declared victory over coronavirus
Ntaghacha
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Jamaa kaosha Jina aise! Yaani hiyo ramani ni Dunia mzima isipokuwa ss!
Geza Ulole
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joto la jiwe
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Corona ‘gamble’ pays off for Tanzania
With an economy that continues to grow, Tanzania’s unconventional approach to COVID-19 appears to be paying off, but the long-term effects of the virus are hard to predict, writes African Business’s Tom Collins in Dar es Salaam
**
“There’s no COVID here,” says a young tuk-tuk driver in Tanzania’s economic capital of Dar es Salaam, the biggest city in the region with almost seven million people.
Since President John Magufuli boldly announced in June that Tanzania was “coronavirus-free” it has become a commonly heard refrain across the East African country.
But a lack of COVID-19 cases is impossible. Tanzania is surrounded by eight African countries, with confirmed cases ranging from almost 40,000 in Kenya to 4,700 in Rwanda at the time of writing.
The last time Tanzania’s government released coronavirus data – on April 29 – it reported 509 confirmed cases, around 150 more than Kenya at that time.
With similar demographics and a larger population, Tanzania might be expected to have an equal if not greater number of cases than Kenya.
The difference, however, is that COVID-19 has not changed life in Tanzania whereas other African countries, including Kenya, have entered strict lockdowns.
Bucking a global trend, President Magufuli has repeatedly downplayed the virus and implemented very few preventative measures.
While masks are a common sight across Africa in cities like Lagos, Nairobi and Johannesburg, they are a rarity on the streets of Tanzania.
Bars and restaurants remain open, while large gatherings such as sports events and religious assemblies have been allowed to continue. The government is neither testing nor releasing data on tests.
Though critics believe President Magufuli has neglected his duties as leader and misled his citizens by claiming that prayer will beat the virus, the controversial approach has so far allowed Tanzania to avoid much of the economic disruption witnessed in other markets.
Lockdown opponents argue that while up to 80 percent of Africa’s economy is informal, any restrictions will lead to far greater financial ruin than in developed markets.
“Many other countries that went into lockdown have suffered tremendously from an economic point of view,” says Mohammed Dewji, CEO of industrial conglomerate MeTL, Tanzania’s largest home-grown company.
“Tanzania never went into lockdown and that is why I believe it will perform far better than all East and Central African countries.”
Balancing Act
In fact, Dewji’s prediction may be too modest – Tanzania’s economy could register one of the highest growth rates in the world for 2020.
The IMF predicts a drop in growth this year from six percent to four percent, compared with Kenya which will fall from six percent to one percent, and others like South Africa which are headed towards recession.
“I don’t think that Tanzania is headed towards a recession, it has proven to be quite resilient,” says Jens Reinke, the IMF’s representative in Tanzania. “Underlying this is a couple of factors. One is that Tanzania was not hit by the public health side of the pandemic as other countries might have been.”
At the beginning of the pandemic, it seemed likely that Tanzania would pay a heavy price for adopting very few health measures.
While Africa shows a low mortality rate relative to other regions, the logic of shutting down the economy to prevent deaths is not so clear. For example, Uganda has only 63 reported COVID deaths while Spain, with a similar-sized population, has 8,500.
On the other hand, Tanzania could be experiencing an unreported health crisis, something that observers have feared following reports of clandestine COVID-19 burials in May.
The worry is compounded by the government’s strict control of the COVID-19 narrative, which includes banning journalists from reporting on the subject and creating an environment where NGOs and doctors are scared to talk to the media.
While unsubstantiated by the lack of data, several off-record conversations between African Business, medical officials and opposition figures suggest that Tanzanian hospitals were not overflowing with COVID-19 patients in mid-September.
“If COVID-19 is here in our interwoven society in Zanzibar, we would know about it,” says one opposition politician. “The hospitals don’t have anyone in them. They cannot hide it here in such a small place.”
The most likely explanation for the pandemic’s diminished effect in Tanzania and other African countries compared with developed nations is that younger populations are more resilient to the virus and dispersed as a result of limited transport infrastructure.
The median age in Tanzania is just 17,7 compared with an average age of 38,4 in the US – one of the worst affected countries.
Whether through luck or design, President Magufuli has, for now, managed to avoid the negative impact to health and the economy of COVID-19 during a period of extreme turmoil in the rest of the world.
Positive Shock
Tanzania has also benefited from what the IMF’s Reinke calls a “dual positive shock”.
As a net importer of oil and exporter of gold, Tanzania has benefited from a substantial improvement in the terms of trade during the COVID-19 period due to the fall in the price of oil and the rise in the price of gold.
While tourism revenues have diminished, favourable commodity prices have helped stabilise the government’s balance of payments and kept its earnings at an acceptable level.
Tanzania’s national treasury is predicting a budget shortfall of only 2,6 percent of GDP this year. This contrasts positively with Uganda and Rwanda, whose deficits are expected to widen to 7,9 percent and 9,1 percent respectively.
Few businesses have gone bankrupt in Tanzania compared with countries like Kenya, where hundreds of small businesses have been forced to close in the hospitality sector due to a lockdown which still includes a dusk-to-dawn curfew.
Tourism Impact
With no restrictions on the domestic economy, the main sectors under pressure in Tanzania are those that are interlinked with outside markets like tourism, trade and logistics.
Charles Itembe, MD of Azania Bank, says that he has restructured repayments on loans for customers in the tourist industry from between three months to one year.
“Because of COVID-19 there was no more traffic in the tourist industry and our clients say they have been hit quite significantly,” he says.
Unlike most other countries, Tanzania does not require tourists to quarantine for 14 days, which means the well-known safari destination is likely to recover faster than its main competitor Kenya.
It is unclear whether Tanzania’s reputation in Africa for failing to take COVID-19 seriously will be picked up by potential visitors from North America and Europe.
A small number of tourists started to return in July though most operators do not expect the sector to fully recover until a vaccine is in circulation.
“Most of the travellers decided to postpone their safari to next year,” says Rama Mohamed, founder of Gecko Adventure Tanzania, which had been organising tours for around 60 families each month.
Tanzania’s unique coronavirus policy has strained relations with neighbouring states who have pursued stricter measures. Zambia and Kenya, fearing overlapping transmission, closed their borders with the country in May.
Kenya then banned direct flights arriving from Tanzania, and Tanzania retaliated by banning Kenyan carriers from its airspace.
The deterioration in relations has impacted Tanzania’s cross-border exporters and traders, and some observers believe the spat could restrict further moves towards economic integration in the East African Community.
But elsewhere, the relative health of Tanzania’s economy is reflected by its engagement with multilateral lenders.
The IMF has provided emergency financing to 33 Sub-Saharan African countries, totalling more than US$15 billion. Neighbouring Kenya received $739m as part of the Fund’s rapid credit facility, and a similar arrangement is available for Tanzania.
According to Reinke, although the IMF has been in discussion with the Tanzanian authorities they have decided not to access the emergency funds – opting for US$14,3 million in debt relief instead.
One possible reason is that after downplaying the seriousness of the virus, President Magufuli may be politically reluctant to access emergency funding.
The government may also be less in need of help than other countries.
Uncertain Future
Preliminary findings from the WHO suggest that more than 80 percent of Africans who contract Covid-19 are asymptomatic.
However, this does not mean that African countries can discount the pandemic and the virus could still inflict harm on Tanzania’s population, especially if there are no government measures in place.
On the other hand, the decision to keep the domestic market open has allowed the country to keep growing while most other countries face serious economic contractions.
“They have lockdown, we don’t have lockdown, they are not working, we are working, they are not recovering, we are recovering,” says Itembe from Azania Bank. “This is the big difference between Tanzania and the rest of the world and East Africa.”
Corona ‘gamble’ pays off for Tanzania || The Southern Times
- By:
- Tom Collins --
- Oct19,2020 --
- 0 Comments
With an economy that continues to grow, Tanzania’s unconventional approach to COVID-19 appears to be paying off, but the long-term effects of the virus are hard to predict, writes African Business’s Tom Collins in Dar es Salaam
**
“There’s no COVID here,” says a young tuk-tuk driver in Tanzania’s economic capital of Dar es Salaam, the biggest city in the region with almost seven million people.
Since President John Magufuli boldly announced in June that Tanzania was “coronavirus-free” it has become a commonly heard refrain across the East African country.
But a lack of COVID-19 cases is impossible. Tanzania is surrounded by eight African countries, with confirmed cases ranging from almost 40,000 in Kenya to 4,700 in Rwanda at the time of writing.
The last time Tanzania’s government released coronavirus data – on April 29 – it reported 509 confirmed cases, around 150 more than Kenya at that time.
With similar demographics and a larger population, Tanzania might be expected to have an equal if not greater number of cases than Kenya.
The difference, however, is that COVID-19 has not changed life in Tanzania whereas other African countries, including Kenya, have entered strict lockdowns.
Bucking a global trend, President Magufuli has repeatedly downplayed the virus and implemented very few preventative measures.
While masks are a common sight across Africa in cities like Lagos, Nairobi and Johannesburg, they are a rarity on the streets of Tanzania.
Bars and restaurants remain open, while large gatherings such as sports events and religious assemblies have been allowed to continue. The government is neither testing nor releasing data on tests.
Though critics believe President Magufuli has neglected his duties as leader and misled his citizens by claiming that prayer will beat the virus, the controversial approach has so far allowed Tanzania to avoid much of the economic disruption witnessed in other markets.
Lockdown opponents argue that while up to 80 percent of Africa’s economy is informal, any restrictions will lead to far greater financial ruin than in developed markets.
“Many other countries that went into lockdown have suffered tremendously from an economic point of view,” says Mohammed Dewji, CEO of industrial conglomerate MeTL, Tanzania’s largest home-grown company.
“Tanzania never went into lockdown and that is why I believe it will perform far better than all East and Central African countries.”
Balancing Act
In fact, Dewji’s prediction may be too modest – Tanzania’s economy could register one of the highest growth rates in the world for 2020.
The IMF predicts a drop in growth this year from six percent to four percent, compared with Kenya which will fall from six percent to one percent, and others like South Africa which are headed towards recession.
“I don’t think that Tanzania is headed towards a recession, it has proven to be quite resilient,” says Jens Reinke, the IMF’s representative in Tanzania. “Underlying this is a couple of factors. One is that Tanzania was not hit by the public health side of the pandemic as other countries might have been.”
At the beginning of the pandemic, it seemed likely that Tanzania would pay a heavy price for adopting very few health measures.
While Africa shows a low mortality rate relative to other regions, the logic of shutting down the economy to prevent deaths is not so clear. For example, Uganda has only 63 reported COVID deaths while Spain, with a similar-sized population, has 8,500.
On the other hand, Tanzania could be experiencing an unreported health crisis, something that observers have feared following reports of clandestine COVID-19 burials in May.
The worry is compounded by the government’s strict control of the COVID-19 narrative, which includes banning journalists from reporting on the subject and creating an environment where NGOs and doctors are scared to talk to the media.
While unsubstantiated by the lack of data, several off-record conversations between African Business, medical officials and opposition figures suggest that Tanzanian hospitals were not overflowing with COVID-19 patients in mid-September.
“If COVID-19 is here in our interwoven society in Zanzibar, we would know about it,” says one opposition politician. “The hospitals don’t have anyone in them. They cannot hide it here in such a small place.”
The most likely explanation for the pandemic’s diminished effect in Tanzania and other African countries compared with developed nations is that younger populations are more resilient to the virus and dispersed as a result of limited transport infrastructure.
The median age in Tanzania is just 17,7 compared with an average age of 38,4 in the US – one of the worst affected countries.
Whether through luck or design, President Magufuli has, for now, managed to avoid the negative impact to health and the economy of COVID-19 during a period of extreme turmoil in the rest of the world.
Positive Shock
Tanzania has also benefited from what the IMF’s Reinke calls a “dual positive shock”.
As a net importer of oil and exporter of gold, Tanzania has benefited from a substantial improvement in the terms of trade during the COVID-19 period due to the fall in the price of oil and the rise in the price of gold.
While tourism revenues have diminished, favourable commodity prices have helped stabilise the government’s balance of payments and kept its earnings at an acceptable level.
Tanzania’s national treasury is predicting a budget shortfall of only 2,6 percent of GDP this year. This contrasts positively with Uganda and Rwanda, whose deficits are expected to widen to 7,9 percent and 9,1 percent respectively.
Few businesses have gone bankrupt in Tanzania compared with countries like Kenya, where hundreds of small businesses have been forced to close in the hospitality sector due to a lockdown which still includes a dusk-to-dawn curfew.
Tourism Impact
With no restrictions on the domestic economy, the main sectors under pressure in Tanzania are those that are interlinked with outside markets like tourism, trade and logistics.
Charles Itembe, MD of Azania Bank, says that he has restructured repayments on loans for customers in the tourist industry from between three months to one year.
“Because of COVID-19 there was no more traffic in the tourist industry and our clients say they have been hit quite significantly,” he says.
Unlike most other countries, Tanzania does not require tourists to quarantine for 14 days, which means the well-known safari destination is likely to recover faster than its main competitor Kenya.
It is unclear whether Tanzania’s reputation in Africa for failing to take COVID-19 seriously will be picked up by potential visitors from North America and Europe.
A small number of tourists started to return in July though most operators do not expect the sector to fully recover until a vaccine is in circulation.
“Most of the travellers decided to postpone their safari to next year,” says Rama Mohamed, founder of Gecko Adventure Tanzania, which had been organising tours for around 60 families each month.
Tanzania’s unique coronavirus policy has strained relations with neighbouring states who have pursued stricter measures. Zambia and Kenya, fearing overlapping transmission, closed their borders with the country in May.
Kenya then banned direct flights arriving from Tanzania, and Tanzania retaliated by banning Kenyan carriers from its airspace.
The deterioration in relations has impacted Tanzania’s cross-border exporters and traders, and some observers believe the spat could restrict further moves towards economic integration in the East African Community.
But elsewhere, the relative health of Tanzania’s economy is reflected by its engagement with multilateral lenders.
The IMF has provided emergency financing to 33 Sub-Saharan African countries, totalling more than US$15 billion. Neighbouring Kenya received $739m as part of the Fund’s rapid credit facility, and a similar arrangement is available for Tanzania.
According to Reinke, although the IMF has been in discussion with the Tanzanian authorities they have decided not to access the emergency funds – opting for US$14,3 million in debt relief instead.
One possible reason is that after downplaying the seriousness of the virus, President Magufuli may be politically reluctant to access emergency funding.
The government may also be less in need of help than other countries.
Uncertain Future
Preliminary findings from the WHO suggest that more than 80 percent of Africans who contract Covid-19 are asymptomatic.
However, this does not mean that African countries can discount the pandemic and the virus could still inflict harm on Tanzania’s population, especially if there are no government measures in place.
On the other hand, the decision to keep the domestic market open has allowed the country to keep growing while most other countries face serious economic contractions.
“They have lockdown, we don’t have lockdown, they are not working, we are working, they are not recovering, we are recovering,” says Itembe from Azania Bank. “This is the big difference between Tanzania and the rest of the world and East Africa.”
Corona ‘gamble’ pays off for Tanzania || The Southern Times
Geza Ulole
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MY TAKE
Hapa Uhuru anamaanisha nini kwenye suala la uhuru wa Habari? Je bado anaamini ya kuwa nchi zisizo kuwa na Korona kama Kenya zinaficha habari/takwimu? 😀 😀 👇
#Akilizahandshake#
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Geza Ulole
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Geza Ulole
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joto la jiwe
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Uhuru ameshapoteza imani, wakenya wanapiga uongozi wake wakimlinganisha na Magufuli, anaumia sana akisikia wakenya wanamtaka amuige Magufuli katika kuongoza Kenya, kwahiyo inamlazimu kujaribu kuonyesha kwamba hata Magufuli hafanyi vizuri.
Lakini kwa kufanya hivyo anazidi kujiumbua kwasababu wananchi wanauliza kama Magufuli anaficha data, kwanini Kenya imeiweka Tanzania katika orodha ya nchi ambazo raia wake wanaruhusiwa kuingia Kenya bila kuwekwa karantini?
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WORRYING SURGE
Uhuru in dilemma over second wave of Covid infections
President faced with difficult choices of deciding whether to reimpose tougher restrictions.
In Summary- Uhuru asked Kenyans to take personal responsibility to stop the spread of the disease
- Matatu owners and the clergy have also asked Kenyans to adhere to Ministry of Health protocols
President Uhuru Kenyatta speaks at the Health Sector Intergovernmental Forum on Universal Health Coverage in Mombasa County on October 31, 2020.
Image: PSCU
A spike in Covid-19 cases has put President Uhuru Kenyatta in a dilemma on whether or not to reimpose movement restrictions to stem the spread of the disease.
The President indicated he is faced “with a very difficult time” of deciding what to do following a sharp increase in cases after he lifted tough restrictions in August.
“We are going through that very difficult time of saying, now, what do we do again? Do we close up? We shall be coming to that, not today, but soon,” he stated.
The world is experiencing a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and several countries have already reintroduced even tougher restrictions.
Regions in Italy, France, Spain and Germany are introducing curfews and tougher social-distancing rules to avoid a return to full-blown lockdowns.
Back home, Uhuru said thoughts of reimposing restrictions would not have been there if people had observed Health ministry protocols.
“We would not have to if only people observed rules and cared for their fellow citizens. It is possible to keep Covid at bay and still live a normal life. I only wish that the issue of personal responsibility would be taken at heart,” he stated.
The President reiterated that people should take personal responsibility to stop the spread of the disease.
"If we all could keep Covid-19 at bay, we would reduce deaths and we would be able to continue to drive our economic agenda,” he said.
Uhuru spoke at All Saints Cathedral during a special Sunday service to celebrate 50 years of the Anglican Church of Kenya’s existence as an independent province.
He was accompanied by Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, Water CS Cecily Kariuki, Kajiado Governor Joseph ole Lenku, among other leaders.
Church leadership, led by archbishop Jackson ole Sapit, urged the President to stop political rallies going on across the country saying they are a danger to the nation.
The Ministry of Health has attributed the rising numbers to the increased number of political activities during which little or no precautionary measures are observed.
The surge is expected to slow down activities related to the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), whose report was officially launched last Monday.
Political leaders supporting the report had indicated that they would be going to the grassroots to drum up support for the report, an initiative of the President and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
On the other hand, leaders opposed to the report said they would mobilise Kenyans to reject constitutional amendments.
On Sunday, Uhuru said people should have taken personal responsibility when he reopened the country.
“I am quite impressed today because we have a serious Covid-19 crisis in this country and it is growing but you have managed to put together a service like this while obeying all protocols issued by the Ministry of Health,” Uhuru told the church leadership.
He acknowledged that the emergence of the second wave, saying the surge in numbers had taken the government back to the drawing board.
Speaking separately, Matatu Owners Association (MOA) urged members and passengers to strictly adhere to Health ministry guidelines to stop the spread of the disease.
“I strongly agree with the President. If we adhere to the rules, we can keep the disease at bay while continuing with our normal life,” MOA chairperson Simon Kimutai told the Star.
He said matatu crews and passengers should always wear masks properly and sanitise regularly. “There might be a few cases where people are not adhering to the rules but we can be prefects of each other,” he added.
The Church and Clergy Association of Kenya (CCAK) urged Kenyans to adhere to containment measures to avert a reintroduction of containment measures.
CCAK national chairman Hudson Ndeda said Kenyans need to obey the rules to save lives and prevent the economy from collapsing. “The economy will be battered if restriction measures are reintroduced,” the bishop stated.
The President has convened the sixth extraordinary session of the National and County Governments Summit on Wednesday to discuss mitigating measures.
The session shall consider the evolution of the disease as well as the epidemiological models on how the virus may propagate in the country over the months of November and December.
The Session shall also review the efficacy of the containment measures in place, as well as the impact of the easing of the restrictions that were in place.
The second wave comes just weeks after Kenya lifted tough restrictions meant to limit Covid spread. In August, the airspace was opened for international passengers.
Other measures relaxed included reopening of bars and restaurants, which had remained closed since March, and allowing places of worship to resume in prayer facilities. A night curfew was also reduced from 9pm to 4am to 11am to 4am.
Authorities have warned the country was headed for tough times after reporting more than 600 new cases and more deaths. Some experts say it might be challenging to reimpose restrictions.
On Thursday, the Ministry of Health issued the strongest warning yet on a possible second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, after 68 people died in a week.
Health CS Mutahi Kagwe said the high death toll and infection were worrying. He urged Kenyans to strictly adhere to public health regulations.
Kagwe said the current infection rate had shot up from an average of 4 per cent per week in the last few weeks to 15 per cent currently.
Uhuru in dilemma over second wave of Covid infections
President faced with difficult choices of deciding whether to reimpose tougher restrictions.
MY TAKE
Inakaa kama vile Uhuru anatafuta excuse seeing his 4 Agenda thing is already failing! As a frank advice, he better continue to take more loan as that economy can't work without loans!
CC: Tony254
Geza Ulole
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Only loans can save that Economy!
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