For a political party to be successful it needs to position itself to assume power. For this reason it requires what I would call as the Triangle of Political Victory. In this triangle there are a Philosophical/Ideological Base, An Administration/Structural Base and an Activism/political base.
If I were to draw a triangle we would have something that looks like this:
Now:
1. Ideological/Philosophical Base: Is that part of the political party which distinguishes it from all other political parties in terms of their mission, perceptions, goals, platforms etc. This is the central piece of any political parties. Most parties have almost the same kinds of structures or administrative outlook but it is here where the fundamental differences between parties exist. It is not just the written philosophies or ideas but rather the people who promulgate those ideas. A political party needs to have its ideological base in its membership as well as in its leadership. A party without an ideological base, it like a people without a culture.
2. Administrative Base: This is that part of the party which involves its structures and its infrastructures of administration, organization and leadership. While most parties structures are somewhat similar each political party needs to develop its own structures befitting its goals, ambition etc. A political party that just copies and paste what other parties have (albeit under different names) is fundamentally inheriting the weaknesses or strengths of those other parties. So, toward victory a party need to create functionaries that would help it soar high. While all birds have wings, not all birds can fly! The differences are in the structural details of their evolutionary making.
3. Political Base: This is the other fundamental part of a political party. Without a strong political base a party will be just a party but not part of a big party! The political base includes its superstars, loyal members, supporters, ideologues, pundits etc. It includes all political leaders from the very bottom to the very top. The political base is what makes a political party win an election. A party can have a good ideology or bad, it can have a very good structural system but without a strong, die-hard political base it will remain just a party with supporters. In order to be able to assume power - say to lead a country - a party needs all of its political base to be behind its agenda.
In my unsolicited humble opinion:
On CCM: It has a strong political base as well as the administrative base but it is lacking a strong philosophical/ideological base. Since the end of Nyerere's era CCM has never been able to articulate a clear ideological stand as a political party. The so called "Market economy" or "Free market" is in fact not an ideology! Even more, the ruling party is facing a very unique situation in its political base; it lacks activism! As a matter of fact some of its cadres despise the idea of activism this brings to a clash among its leaders; the bureaucrats of old and younger youthful members . While the question of ideology is a difficult one the question of the split of its base is the greatest threat to its future. I totally believe that the weakest link within the part is the confluence of the two.
On Chadema: It has a very strong political base as well as a rising philosophical/ideological base but lacking a strong structural base (the base still depends heavily on personalities).
So, once all these three are set towards victory as the saying goes, the sky is the limit or is it?
MM