Elections 2010 With 70% Voters' turnout, Slaa Wins; Less than that Kikwete Wins - My Prediction:

[Nono]

It will be a beautiful day for this country if Chadema pick 100 competent wabunge. That is what we need for a vibrant economic development and check/balances. As far as Dr. Slaa. He doesn't know how to govern na WaTanzania wote tunalijua hilo.

Hapo kwenye red kunatutisha wengine zaidi. Kumbe kuna wengi tunaojihesabu kuwa tu Watanzania, lakini kwa Mujibu wa Selemani sisi sio miongoni mwao!
Je, JK ndiye ajuae kutawala?

 

[Consultant]

The Victory for Dr. Slaa depends on the high voters turn out

Tukapige KURA jamani. Mambo mengine yanaweza kufuata baadae - kwenda kukaa bar, kwenda kumegana (huku umeaga home ati upo kwenye foleni unapiga kura) etc. Ile foleni ya siku zote ambayo wengi tumekuwa tunaikimbia ni ya kawaida tu. Mabadiliko hayaji kirahisi rahisi tuuuuuu na kusimama ''muda mrefu'' kwenye foleni is part of it!

BUT if you really want Dr. Slaa to win.... well, DO the needful.. nenda kapige kura!

Well, DO the needful indeed - nenda kampigie kura Dr. Slaa

Kwa wale ambao hawajaamua wampigie kura nani:
Well, nakushawishi ukamchague Dr. Slaa kama Rais na mbunge wa Chadema (kama anafaa kwa mtazamo wako). Tumechagua CCM tangu mwaka 1961 na tumepata nini? - a vicious kick in the teeth.

Rais mpya (Dr. Slaa) anaweza kuleta mabadiliko tunayoyahitaji. Kama kweli umeguswa kwa njia moja ama nyingine na uozo na udhaifu wa serikali ya sasa, HUNA SABABU ya kuwachagua tena. Una mashaka na Dr. Slaa? well, CCM wamekufanyia nini?

Tunahitaji mabadiliko. Tusiwe wagumu kufanya mabadiliko. There is always a first time and this is it. Tuchague Dr. Slaa. Si kwamba tutakuwa tunafanya ''majaribio'', hapana, tumekwishaona uwezo wake. Ameshasema anayoyaamini na atakayokwenda kuyafanya Ikulu. Si hawa wahuni wanaohubiri yale yale siku nenda rudi

 

[Gaijin]

naomba kuuliza, kwa tupigakura wa majiji makubwa kama dar,arusha na mwanza, watarajie kukaa kwenye foleni kwa saa ngapi?

 

[Comrade Mpayukaji]

It will be a beautiful day for this country if Chadema pick 100 competent wabunge. That is what we need for a vibrant economic development and check/balances. As far as Dr. Slaa. He doesn't know how to govern na WaTanzania wote tunalijua hilo.

Kuna shule ya kufundisha Urais? Acha uchovu wa mawazo!!!!!:doh:

 

[anney]

I hope chadema need to address the dilema that CCM will manipulate votes. What is important for this two days Chadema in the campaign should give the message to votes please go SLAA and vote, we have mechanisms of dealing with vote manipulation.

 

[Mo-TOWN]

Speaking about JK's friday media blitz, I dont expect him to change voters opinion in favor of CCM? Its an old trick which will not work. JK will be on defensive, trying to respond to policy/strategic issues raised by Dr Slaa and other opposition candidates . Second it is likely that he will go back to his famous shopping list of consumer items,roads,hospitals, water etc. and perhaps retaliates about religion to influence sympathetic votes.

Unlike previous elections, this time the wananchi are looking for change on how the the government run its business etc. JK and the ruling party are not for pro change therefore they are not set to talk about doing things differently, therefore unlikely to influence opinion of undecided voters.

 

[mzalendo2010]

MK hiyo ya kura kuibiwa i agree with you have a look at this

Guys, wizi wa kura utafanywa kwa njia ya mtandao, this is very possible, ukiangalia kwa makini utatambua ya kuwa hizi website zote zimekuwa hosted katika server moja, how comes server inayo host NEC ina host jkikwete2010.com, Hapa kuna conflicting interests.... ping all the above sites eg ping nec.go.tz, kisha jmkikwete.com the same ip address ina reply

 

[Consultant]

naomba kuuliza, kwa tupigakura wa majiji makubwa kama dar,arusha na mwanza, watarajie kukaa kwenye foleni kwa saa ngapi?

Not more than 2 hours. I believe we can afford that. Uwezo tunao. Sababu tunayo. Tuweke NIA sasa

 

[Not_Yet_Uhuru]

it goes WITHOUT REASONING kwamba chadema watalishangaza bunge na ''dakta'' kikwete atakufa kwa stroke mwakani maanake ni ''rahisi'' pekee ambae atakuwa ameongoza kwa msimu mmoja na kutolea kwa aibu

\Baba G;
Unamaanisha mwakani atakufa kwa stroke akiwa kama mtazamaji wa Rais makini anavyochapa kazi au unamaanisha kuwa yeye JK - 'Juha' mwenyewe ndiye atakuwa 'rahisi??'

Tafadhali zingatia kuwa piga ua na garagaza, the next Presdent of the United Republic of the People of Tanzania iiiiizzz....Hon Dr. W. P. Slaaa...

Yafuatayo mengineyo juu ya JK kushinda ni kama 'Matangazo ya vifo...tuyaepuke kama ukoma!

 

[Njowepo]

Kinana anajiteteaga kuwa kuna maeneo CHADEMA hawajafika CCM wamefika so ushindi ni lazima.
Very poor reasoning sasa hajui kuwa wenzake CHADEMA wako strategic huwezi choma mafuta ya helcopter kwenda na ata ambako unazomewa.
Ushindi wa Slaa nadhani utakuwa kati ya 50 to 60 %

 

[Ntemi Kazwile]

Jana nilikuwa naongoa na one of the big boys wa CCM original (achana na hii ya Kikwete) anasema kuwa CCM wame-overstay kwenye utawala. Anasema mambo ambayo yanafanyika sasa hakuweza kuyategemea katika CCM aliyokuwa anaijua yeye. Kwa maneno yake yeye mwenyewe hatapiga kura na hata kama angelikwenda kupiga kura asingekipigia CCM.
Huyu mtu ana watu wengi nyuma yake.
Mtaji pekee ambao wanao CCM sasa ni wapiga kura wa vijijini ambao mpaka sasa bado wanababaishwa na sms za CCM zinazosema kuwa CCM ndicho chama pekee kinachoweza kulinda amani nchi hii. Ninaamini Kikwete atapata kura nyingi sana za vijiji vya kanda ya ziwa hasa hasa majimbo ambayo CHADEMA hawana wagombea mfano Sengerema, Nyanhwale, Buchosa, Magu, Shinyanga, n.k

 

[Gelange Vidunda]

The Victory for Dr. Slaa depends on the high voters turn out. This is important because it will make it very hard to manipulate votes in one polling area, more votes less vote manipulation because votes will cancel each other out by higher turnout.

But even more, a high turn out will bring more independent voters compared to lower turn out. If the turn out is around less or around 60 percent that will favor CCM because CCM has about 4 million of whom about 3/4 will vote for him. With lower turn out but higher CCM's turn out Kikwete wins at about 65 - 69 percent range.

However, if more people turn out at around 70 and nothing happen between now and Sunday to make people change their mind (assuming JK's live session on Friday is not inspiring to the voters) then Dr. Slaa will win this election by about 55-60 percent of all votes.

What I'm saying is this, if you want CCM candidate to win, you know WHAT TO DO (i mean you can vote for MP and ur councilor); BUT if you really want Dr. Slaa to win well do the needful.. nenda kapige kura!

No matter who wins Tanzania will be there the next morning, so DON'T PANIC!

With the Parliamentary seats I totally believe that Chadema will suprise some bigwigs just like what happened during the primaries within CCM. Some mighty politicians will FALL. I believe Chadema will pick between 90-110 seats. All depending on voters turn out at the same ration as the presidential votes.

That is my prediction and I'm sticking to it.

Fair analysis. I think if the same group who voted in the 2005 elections cast their vote I believe JK will win. The pivotal vote will come from that group of extra voters who would otherwise not vote but were forced to register this elections due to TCRA's cellphone SIM registration exercise - even then the question is; Will these extra registrants actually cast their votes and swing the elections?

Deep down I am still not convinced that the huge turnouts at presidential campaign rallies actually transform into credible votes. There are some constituencies that this may seem to be correct, ie of 10 people at a particular campaign rally, 7 are registered to vote. This actually takes me back to the Temeke elections where Lyatonga's car was pushed around by people who supposedly didn't vote nor have the incentive to register to vote! (This year the incentive to register to vote was the SIM card registration where you needed an ID and the easiest ID for the masses is a Voting Registration card) Also, in the 2005 elections people went to gawk at Mbowe's helicopter.....and they voted JK by a landmark margin, of what, 88%+? Will the same happen this elections? Furthermore, much rhetoric is coming from us urban dwellers - I wonder if the majority of voters vijijini are passionate about the same crap we are???

This is my opinion, and I am entitled to it!!!!

 

[Ntemi Kazwile]

Guys, wizi wa kura utafanywa kwa njia ya mtandao, this is very possible, ukiangalia kwa makini utatambua ya kuwa hizi website zote zimekuwa hosted katika server moja, how comes server inayo host NEC ina host jkikwete2010.com, Hapa kuna conflicting interests.... ping all the above sites eg ping nec.go.tz, kisha jmkikwete.com the same ip address ina reply

Duh, hii mbona taabu. Hebu wataalam tujuzeni namna ambavyo host wa website anaweza ku-access data za watu anaowahost!!!

 

[CHANGA]

naomba kuuliza, kwa tupigakura wa majiji makubwa kama dar,arusha na mwanza, watarajie kukaa kwenye foleni kwa saa ngapi?

polling station moja ina maximum ya voters 450, akiongezeka moja station zinakuwa mbili zenye voters 226 as station A and 225 as station B, unaweza kuhesbu muda huo ingawa hakuna na haikuwahi kutokea turn out ya 100%

 

[Gelange Vidunda]

Guys, wizi wa kura utafanywa kwa njia ya mtandao, this is very possible, ukiangalia kwa makini utatambua ya kuwa hizi website zote zimekuwa hosted katika server moja, how comes server inayo host NEC ina host jkikwete2010.com, Hapa kuna conflicting interests.... ping all the above sites eg ping nec.go.tz, kisha jmkikwete.com the same ip address ina reply

Mzalendo2010, hebu naomba unieleze kinaga ubaga how kura hizo zitaibiwa kwavile NEC na mgombea mmojawapo wapo hosted in one server? Kwanza hao host wapo wangapi Tanzania hii (assuming this host server is in Tanzania). Pili; hizo kura mpaka zifike humo what happens? Nilivyoelewa mimi ni kwamba kura zinapigwa kwenye vituo, zinasafirishwa hadi wilayani, zinhesabiwa na kuhakikiwa na mawakili kutoka kila chama, na kuanzia hapa sijui kusema ya kweli lakini nadhani zinapelekwa NEC whether online or otherwise na somewere along these lines zinaingizwa online for all to view. Sasa, in between kuhakikiwa na mawakala na hapo zinapoingia online ndipo "zinapoibiwa"? Mawakala si watakuwa na "actuals" za kila kituo and/or wilaya? Au am I missing something here?

Naomba ufafanuzi manake naona umelishikia bango hili swala la host server moja.

 

[rmashauri]

naamini tutashinda, leo niko Njombe, huku kwa Nymbo, hali ninayoiona, inanisisimua, natoka machozi ya furaha, naamini juhudi zetu atimae zimelipa, Mungu ni Mwema , kila ninakopita wananitia moyo kua watapiga Kura ya mabadiliko....

Mkuu ni kweli mwaka huu kuna ushindi wa sunami kwa Dr. Slaa. Kwa maongenzi niliyofanya na ndugu zangu walioko huko vijijini, Mwanza wananiambia kuna mwamko wa hali ya juu. Watu hawamtaki Kikwete tena na wanatoa sababu nzito zikiwemo za wizi wa maliasili zetu na yeye akiwa mhusika. Jana nimelala usingizi mtamu kweli nikiwa nimejaa furaha kuona watu wa vijijini si wale wa mwaka 47 tena.

 

[TUKUTUKU]

Thank you very much,You have made a very good thorough analysis and come up with good idea.I real appreciate that you are a great thinker.

 

[WildCard]

WABUNGE wa kuchaguliwa wa CHADEMA hawatafika 30. Dr Slaa hatapata asilimia 20 ya kura halali zitakazopigwa. Kwa nini?:
1.Mazingira ni yaleyale sawa na mwaka 2005
2. KATIBA ya JMT ni ileile
3. Tume ya Taifa ya Uchaguzi (NEC) ni ileile na Mwenyekiti wake
4.WATANZANIA ni walewale na mapenzi yao kwa CCM
5. Vyombo vya DOLA na WATUMISHI wa UMMA ni walewale ambao kwao Dr Slaa ni balaa sio neema
6.Tunachokiendesha hapa Tanzania sio UCHAGUZI bali ni maigizo yake.
7. Dr Slaa amesema mara kadhaa hakuutaka URAIS
8.Bado CHADEMA inaonekana machoni pa wajinga wengi kuwa ina wenyewe. Dr Slaa anatumika tu kama ngazi.
9. Dr Slaa ni "OUTSIDER"
Tukumbushane tarehe 01/11/2010.

 

[The Good]

"WildCard;

WABUNGE wa kuchaguliwa wa CHADEMA hawatafika 30. Dr Slaa hatapata asilimia 20 ya kura halali zitakazopigwa. Kwa nini?:
1.Mazingira ni yaleyale sawa na mwaka 2005
2. KATIBA ya JMT ni ileile
3. Tume ya Taifa ya Uchaguzi (NEC) ni ileile na Mwenyekiti wake
4.WATANZANIA ni walewale na mapenzi yao kwa CCM
5. Vyombo vya DOLA na WATUMISHI wa UMMA ni walewale ambao kwao Dr Slaa ni balaa sio neema
6.Tunachokiendesha hapa Tanzania sio UCHAGUZI bali ni maigizo yake.
7. Dr Slaa amesema mara kadhaa hakuutaka URAIS
8.Bado CHADEMA inaonekana machoni pa wajinga wengi kuwa ina wenyewe. Dr Slaa anatumika tu kama ngazi.
9. Dr Slaa ni "OUTSIDER"
Tukumbushane tarehe 01/11/2010."

I completely agree with you. I am sure come 1st Nov the mood in JF will not be the same. Kilio kitakachotawala ni kile kile "tumeibiwa"

Lakini wakae wakijua CCM haijawahi kudharau upinzani toka umeanza. pamoja na kelele nyingi zinazoendelea kwa sasa, CCM wameamua kula jiwe wakingoja kwa hamu jumapili.

My prediction; a big surprise is on the way.

 

[Gwamahala]

Mshindi wa uchaguzi mkuu ni Dr W.P. Slaa akifuatiwa kwa ukaribu na J.M. Kikwete alafu kwa mbaaali Prof.I.H. Lipumba.