Livale
JF-Expert Member
- Jun 12, 2016
- 739
- 588
The only trade you can claim to clinch is with Rwanda, Burundi and South East DRC. distance from the central corridor to Kampala is substantially longer than the northern corridor. And keep in mind Ugandan exports and imports are greater than the double of Rwandan and burundian exports and imports.The good thing is we are pretty sure of paying back as the distance between the landlocked countries and the cost is shorter via Tanzania something Kenya can not say about! If at all we r to have the two lines! I am 100% sure Tanzania line will pay back the loan faster than the Kenyan line be assured of that! With oil from Uganda going through Tanzania and Rwanda and Burundi opting for Tanzanian route, and with DRC being our natural customer! I don't see Kenya getting returns out of SRG knowing Tanga is for expansion while construction of Bagamoyo port is to kick start! The best thing would have been Kenya concentrating on South Sudan and Somalia but insecurity up North will mess up the infrastructure! Read once more about projects in 2017 in Bloomberg to know the SRG project in Kenya wasn't a good idea!
If Rwanda and Burundi ceased war and hostilities, I don't see why south Sudan won't. And remember even at her waring state, south Sudan still imported and exported more than Rwanda, hence why Uganda decided to prioritize a rail to them over Rwanda. That in addition to North eastern DRC means Kenya's sgr will have significantly more transit cargo including our very own cargo which is the bulk and main reason for it, returns will be higher.
In tanga you guys are building an oil terminal port, nothing to worry mombasa. Bagamoyo is far far off and with the current upgrades in mombasa to average world efficiency levels aided with linking infrastructure to the hinter land, bagamoyo will have a tough time. Then there's lamu and lapset, a port and corridor with its own niche in the region, no direct competition unless Somalia wakes up which I hope it does.