Dkt. Kigwangalla kushauri "Herd Immunity" dhidi ya Corona, ndio msimamo wa Serikali?

[Retired]

Herd immunity inakuja pale ambapo watu wengi wameugua wakapona, mwili wao umejifunza jinsi ya kupambana na hicho kirusi ili kikirudi tena mtu haugui, kinga ya mwili inashinda mapema tu.

Tatizo sasa ni moja, herd immunity inafaa kwa magonjwa ambayo ukiugua ukapona mwili unajenga kinga ya huo ugonjwa kwa muda mrefu, miezi kadhaa hadi miaka, tatizo la korona ni kua hatujui immunity inakaa muda gani baada ya mtu kupona, kama iingekua muda mrefu basi sawa ila kama inakaa siku chache alafu inapotea herd immunity haiwezi fanya kazi, utakua ukipona baada ya wiki huna kinga unaupata tena.

Kama daktari nilitegemea afikirie kitu kama hicho sio kukurupuka na kutoa solution moja huku anajua sio complete solution. Na hii hua ni last option, mkiwapelekea wazee wenu haka kaugonjwa kwa sababu tu nyie hakawezi kuwaua mkae mjue wao watakufa mapema tu, watanzania wengi umri 50+ wana afya mgogoro, hawafanyi mazoezi, wanakula daily chakula kilekile tu ugali, nyama kibao, unakuta mtu ana tambi limejaa utadhani ana minyoo tani nzima kabeba.

Herd immunity ni mapaka angalau 80-90% ya watu wawe infected. sasa Huwezi jua outcome ya infection hiyo! Wanaweza kufa 50 ya hiyo 90%! Is that fair kwa wananchi wako?

 

[MzaramoTz]

Ndio mana hata dogo sijamskia tena toka siku ile...!

Basi waendelee kujificha tu sisi tunapiga kazi kama kawa kama dawa.

 

[wakubeti]

Tumecheka sana nahawa watu mpaka wamekua comfortable kupitiliza, inabid kufanyike kitu waanze kutuchukulia serious

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[Mfiaukweli]

Eti hotel zifunguliwe.

Hii serikali ya jiwe ni janga la kitaifa.

 

[MC44]

..anasema " 'tujamiiane' kwa kuzingatia social distance..."

..nadhani mheshimiwa hajui maana ya neno "kujamiiana."

Jamiiana sio tuu sex.

Socialization....
Au angeweka tujumuike

 

[SueIsmael]

Wakati huohuo, hawa ni wanasayansi wa Senegal..

 

[Mfiaukweli]

Wewe upo Dunia gani? Mbona kila siku tunaona update kwenye mitandao ya Kitaifa na kimataifa. Wewe ukiandika update Covid-19 itakuonesha.
Serikali ipo Makini kuhakikisha watu wake wapo salama salimini..

Mungu anisamehe kwa kile nilichokiwaza kwako.

 

[Papushikashi]

Labda ana maana baadhi ya positions zisitumike.

Kama ipi

 

[JokaKuu]

Jamiiana sio tuu sex.

Socialization....
Au angeweka tujumuike

..umeangalia KAMUSI?

 

[barafuyamoto]

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Hamis Kigwangala ambaye ni daktari wa afya ameandika meengi katika mtandao wake wa instagram. Kwa tafsiri rahisi ni kwamba anashauri herd immunity.

Kutokana na mwenendo wa serikali katika mapambano dhidi ya corona Je,huu ndio msimamo wa serikali?

Mbona maambukizi mapya hayatangazwi,mbona vifo havitangazwi. Upuliziaji wa dawa ya kuua virus huko Dar es Salaam mbona umesitishwa?

Naomba kuwasilisha hoja

Iki kama google translated vile...

 

[barafuyamoto]

Ni kweli hoteli zote zimefungwa.
Anajua vizuri ana anajua wanakosa mapato kiasi gani.

Ila jamaa ni kiazi.
Huu ugonjwa hauwezi kuisha kwa kuficha data

Na hautoisha kwa kusema data..kikubwa wewe umeshaambiwa na serikali yako pendwa na dunia kwa ujumla kua ugonjwa huu ni hatari.

 

[Retired]

MODS TAFADHALI MSIUNGANISHE, WATAWALA WAACHE KUFIKIRIA HERD IMMUNITY
Kuna tweet Kigwangwala amependekeza herd Immunity kama jawabu la ugonjwa huu kwa watanzania.
Wataalamu wanasema kwa covid-19, ni kuwa kuja kufikia herd immunity, wote tutakuwa tumeisha! Soma chini hapa uone hatar anayotutakia.

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

It's hard to predict things in a pandemic. The situation changes so much on a daily basis that everything you thought you knew last week is wrong by the end of the day. Things are changing so fast that even the solid certainties that we thought we were sure of – the reproductive rate, the symptoms of the infection, the key to making a good quarantine – are suspect and need to be re-evaluated.

But among all this uncertainty, I can say for sure that there is one thing that I would never have seen coming: the discussion about herd immunity. It is so out of the blue that the first time a journalist asked my opinion on whether it was effective for the coronavirus, I literally laughed out loud because I assumed they were joking.

And yet, here we are. Countless articles and think-pieces on the COVID-19 virus are making the argument that, albeit potentially risky, achieving herd immunity could be one response to our crisis. Many of them frame herd immunity as a preventive strategy that may stall the tidal wave of disease so many are predicting.

All of this is simply nonsense. Herd immunity without a vaccine is by definition not a preventative measure.

Let me explain.

Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group. In other words, enough people can't get the disease – either through vaccination or natural immunity – that the people who are vulnerable are protected.

For example, let's think about mumps. Mumps is a very infectious disease that, while relatively benign, is very uncomfortable and sometimes causes nasty life-long complications. It's also vaccine-preventable, with a highly effective vaccine that has made the disease incredibly rare in the modern age.

Mumps has a basic reproductive rate (R0) of 10-12, which means that in a population which is entirely susceptible – meaning no one is immune to the virus – every person who is infected will pass the disease on to 10-12 people.

This means that without vaccination roughly 95 percent of the population gets infected over time. But even with something that is this infectious, there are still some people – 5 percent of the population – who don't get sick, because once everyone else is immune there's no one to catch the disease from.

We can increase that number by vaccinating, because vaccination makes people immune to infection, but it also stops infected people passing on the disease to everyone that they otherwise would. If we can get enough people immune to the disease, then it will stop spreading in the population.

And that's herd immunity, in a nutshell.

For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Which brings us to why herd immunity could never be considered a preventative measure.

If 70 percent of your population is infected with a disease, it is by definition not prevention. How can it be? Most of the people in your country are sick! And the hopeful nonsense that you can reach that 70 percent by just infecting young people is simply absurd. If only young people are immune, you'd have clusters of older people with no immunity at all, making it incredibly risky for anyone over a certain age to leave their house lest they get infected, forever.

It's also worth thinking about the repercussions of this disastrous scenario – the best estimates put COVID-19 infection fatality rate at around 0.5-1 percent. If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome.

With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick, which has huge implications for the country as well.

The sad fact is that herd immunity just isn't a solution to our pandemic woes. Yes, it may eventually happen anyway, but hoping that it will save us all is just not realistic. The time to discuss herd immunity is when we have a vaccine developed, and not one second earlier, because at that point we will be able to really stop the epidemic in its tracks.

Until we have a vaccine, anyone talking about herd immunity as a preventative strategy for COVID-19 is simply wrong. Fortunately, there are other ways of preventing infections from spreading, which all boil down to avoiding people who are sick.

So stay home, stay safe, and practice physical distancing as much as possible.

 

[Azarel]

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Hamis Kigwangala ambaye ni daktari wa afya ameandika meengi katika mtandao wake wa instagram. Kwa tafsiri rahisi ni kwamba anashauri herd immunity.

Kutokana na mwenendo wa serikali katika mapambano dhidi ya corona Je,huu ndio msimamo wa serikali?

Mbona maambukizi mapya hayatangazwi,mbona vifo havitangazwi. Upuliziaji wa dawa ya kuua virus huko Dar es Salaam mbona umesitishwa?

Naomba kuwasilisha hoja

Lakini mbona nayeye kama Daktari hajatoa Maoni au mchango wake kuwa nini kifanyike?

Ameishia kuuliza uliza tu.

CCM wana laana.

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[Avatar]

This man is rubbish! Herd immunity ni kuwa unaacha Darwins theory of natural selection to take its course! Acha wafe watakaobaki basi watakuwa wamekuwa selected kuhimili virus na hivyo maisha kuendelea na a few selected ones INCLUDING HIM na boss wake!
Nchi ya kishenzi sana hii. na ndio msimamo wa Jiwe, ndiyo maana ameamua kujificha ambao yuko 100% assured hataguswa na walio wake! Ndio maana mnaona PM, VP hawaonekanai katu! Wanasubiri natural selection to take its course maana kwa ulivyo contagious/infectious hiyo itakuwa attained within a short time!

Huu ndio mwenendo wa herd immunity kwa nchi inayo apply kwa sasa.. kuna ongezeko kila siku.

Mbaya zaidi ugonjwa wenyewe haijawa clear kama ukipona basi unakua n king y mwili.. maana bado kuna kesi za watu kuugua tena baada y kupona..

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[rip faza_nelly]

..lakini hiyo ndiyo maana yake.

Maana yake Ni mwingiliano

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[Usher-smith MD]

Of course.

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[jiwe angavu]

Kingwangala kafeli..huwezi wekeza kwenye tiba kwenye ugonjwa wa korona tutafeli vibaya sana..mana mfumo wetu wa afya hauwezi kuhimili wingi wa wagonjwa wa korona..haya mawazo ya kuwekeza kwenye tiba ndio yametuletea mzigo wa magonjwa katika nchi..serikali iwekeze kwenye kinga zaidi..ili kupunguza burden of disease.

#MaendeleoHayanaChama

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[HIMARS]

Huwezi umia kama hujaumizwa.
Hawa wanatakiwa waumizwe ndio watajua uchungu

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[Livejr]

Wewe upo Dunia gani? Mbona kila siku tunaona update kwenye mitandao ya Kitaifa na kimataifa. Wewe ukiandika update Covid-19 itakuonesha.
Serikali ipo Makini kuhakikisha watu wake wapo salama salimini..

Ndugu wakati mwingine tumia angalau 5% ya akili ambayo Mwenyezi MUNGU amekupatia katika kufikiria jambo.

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[Retired]

Mbaya zaidi ugonjwa wenyewe haijawa clear kama ukipona basi unakua n king y mwili.. maana bado kuna kesi za watu kuugua tena baada y kupona..

Exactly, huwezi kuwa subject watu kwenye risk ya herd immunity bila chanjo!