Every economy runs in two parallel sets that support each other. Black (covert) market or njia za panya and legitimate (open) market. If you kill a black market, legitimate market must suffer. Thats why in countries like Mexico they have not been able to completely abolish drugs trade which operate on black market because that is an 'economy' that support the livelihood of many people. More than probably what the govt could employ.
Magufuli's policy to clean the country has largely killed the black (covert) market and that could be the reason why an economy has suffered an after shock. The economy must now be walking with one leg instead of 'its traditional' two legs!
In order for the economy to rebound, the govt should probably relax it crack down effort, unjail all people who are in prison for charges related to business malpractice, channel more of its next budget on social programs and infrastructural- labor intensive projects etcs to catalyse some economic activities...
More over, a govt must inject more money in creating reliable markets for agricultural products and more inputs for farmers to increase agricultural outputs.
Govt should also provide tax reliefs (rebates) for private (small) companies that will create at least ten new jobs and re hire new workers that their roles will not be related on filling vacancies. These should really be new jobs.
Govt should also provide a 3yrs break for HESLB loan collections at 15%, instead it should reduce the rate to 5%.
This will increase disposable income for graduates who would ultimately spend more. Hence more revenues for businesses and ultimately more taxes for gvt which would ultimately be able it to refinance new students loans...
NB: for every 100,000 Tsh an employee spends earns, nearly 40,000 of it goes back onto govt coffers. That will be in terms of income tax, import duties, VAT and other fees and collections. So if the aggregate annual disposable income of graduates increases by Tsh 100 B as a result of Heslb's freezing of its 15% collections, ultimately the govt must be able to gain 40B as result of this while an aggregate annual (real/ after tax) expenditure will increase by 60B as result of this single govt action.
A marginal aggregate annual expenditure of these graduates valued at 60B means an additional annual revenue/income of 60 B to businesses. This action and other similar actions will help kulainisha vyuma by a margin that will be valued at 60B per annum.
Take 60B and spread to 1,000,000 traders for example, that amounts to an additional annual revenue/income of 60,000Tsh per trader! Who would also spend and create a tertiary income for others in the value chain etc...
That's a ripple effect of a single govt decision and this is how economics works.