Magufuli 2015-2020: Matarajio ya uchumi na changamoto zake

Magufuli 2015-2020: Matarajio ya uchumi na changamoto zake

Hii ni definition iliyo kinadharia mno.

Undani wa deni hautokani na sisi kudaiana ndani ya taifa kwa sababu hii huwa inaleta dhana potofu hasa kwa miaka hii. Kwa zamani sawa, ila siku hizi deni la ndani hutafsiriwa kwa kutumia "Jurisdiction" ambayo deni hilo limepatikana na sharia zinazo-cover deni hilo.

Kwa mfano kuna government bonds ambazo watu sio watanzania wanazihodhi na pia hizo bills zipo zinazohodhiwa na mabenki ya biashara yenye wawekezaji kutoka nchi mbalimbali. mfano NMB, KCB, etc...
Matter of fact, kuna cartels zina control treasury bills za Tanzania na nyingi sana zipo mikononi mwa foreign commercial banks.
Kwa hiyo, definition yako inaweza kutumika kuelezea mambo kinadharia. Lakini practically inaweza kuwa very misleading. Deni la ndani la Tanzania linahodhiwa kwa kiwango kikubwa na raia wa nje.

Tuanze na hili kwanza ili tufuate mtiririko, tusianze kuleta mambo mengi lets start with this na nitaenda slowly kufuatana na mtiririko wako.
Hapa unachofanya ni kujichanganya tu. Zipo sababu deni la ndani kusimamiwa na Benki Kuu na Deni la Nje Kusimamiwa na Hazina. Deni la ndani athari zake kwa uchumi wa nchi ni tofauti na deni la nje. Unakimbia masuala ya msingi. Hoja kwamba 'practically inaweza kuwa misleading', hoja kwamba deni la ndani linahuisisha raia wa nje sijui na cartels, zote hizi hazijibu hoja yangu ya msingi kuhusu athari za deni la ndani vis a vis deni la nje. Huko haujagusa. Hoja zangu zinajieleza, na takwimu zangu ni hizo hizo ambazo ni official kwenye ripoti mbalimbali. Situngi na wala sina muda wa kutengeneza formula zangu kwa sababu takwimu za deni la taifa zipo wazi, its public knowledge.
 
Nimekaa kimya nikisubiri wengine wenye hoja. Sioni sababu ya kujibu hoja ambazo unatengeneza wewe kwa maneno yako ili kukidhi haja zako wewe. Unachofanya ni utoto. Sijui hata privileges za GT umezipataje. Kwanini unawasilisha TAFSIRI yako badala ya kuwasilisha nilichoandika? Weka maandishi yangu neno kwa neno kisha ambatanisha na counter arguments zako. Kwa namna hiyo, kila mtu ataweza kufuatilia mjadala vizuri. Usilete maelezo kwa jinsi unavyotaka kuyawasilisha wewe kwa lengo la kupotosha watu na kutafuta credit kwa wanaokutuma.
Nimeweka tafsiri za kweli siyo za kipropaganda. Kwa kuwa hili ni jukwaa huru, nitaendelea na dissection.
Taratibu kadri muda utavyoniruhusu.
 
Nimeweka tafsiri za kweli siyo za kipropaganda. Kwa kuwa hili ni jukwaa huru, nitaendelea na dissection.
Taratibu kadri muda utavyoniruhusu.
1476779618596.jpg

Tulisema haya, lakini jesters like Kobello kama kawaida yao wamo humu to amuse the regime. Makamu wa Rais kasema Yale Yale niliyosema ukayapinga - kwamba over 70% of monthly revenues za TRA zinaenda kulipa deni la taifa. Unauelewa zaidi ya Makamu wa Rais?

And what has been the value for money kwa walipa kodi - wananchi walio wengi ambao ni maskini?
 
View attachment 420127

Tulisema haya, lakini jesters like Kobello kama kawaida yao wamo humu to amuse the regime. Makamu wa Rais kasema Yale Yale niliyosema ukayapinga - kwamba over 70% of monthly revenues za TRA zinaenda kulipa deni la taifa. Unauelewa zaidi ya Makamu wa Rais?

And what has been the value for money kwa walipa kodi - wananchi walio wengi ambao ni maskini?

Ninakuambia kwa Mara nyingine tena, hayo ni maandishi ya kipropaganda.
Hakuna kitu Kama hicho. Just the wage bill is 534 bil/month. Mwezi gani TRA ilikusanya 1.6 Trillions?
Kama umeamua kuwa mchumi, fuata principles.

Usifuate maneno ya Mama Samia na ku-conclude. Yeye hahusiki na Budgetary operations, sitamlaumu asipojua hizo 900bn zimetoka wapi.

I can explain it to you, but you are so biased that it will be a waste of time and energy.

You need to dig a bit deeper my brother.
 
Ninakuambia kwa Mara nyingine tena, hayo ni maandishi ya kipropaganda.
Hakuna kitu Kama hicho. Just the wage bill is 534 bil/month. Mwezi gani TRA ilikusanya 1.6 Trillions?
Kama umeamua kuwa mchumi, fuata principles.

Usifuate maneno ya Mama Samia na ku-conclude. Yeye hahusiki na Budgetary operations, sitamlaumu asipojua hizo 900bn zimetoka wapi.

I can explain it to you, but you are so biased that it will be a waste of time and energy.

You need to dig a bit deeper my brother.
Makamu wa Rais! Kwamba huamini anachosema. Huyu anaingia katika Cabinet au sivyo?

Nani wa kutueleza kutoka budgetary operations?

TRA wanasema, gavana anasema yupi mwingine tunayemsubiri?
 
Makamu wa Rais! Kwamba huamini anachosema. Huyu anaingia katika Cabinet au sivyo?

Nani wa kutueleza kutoka budgetary operations?

TRA wanasema, gavana anasema yupi mwingine tunayemsubiri?
Kwani waziri mkuu alipoulizwa na KUB bungeni kuhusu hali ya uchumi alijibu mini?

Na watu humu wakamshangaa. Lile ni jibu mujarab, kwamba let me get back to yo in a min.
Roughly, it may seem kwamba 900bn$ za TRA zinalipa madeni. OK the wage bill is Half a trillion, this is constant (+/-10%).
Na amesema one third inalipa mishahara. Niambie lini TRA ilikusanya 1. 6 Trillions?
Hapo bado kuna expenses nyingine nyingi tu.

I will be back in like 1hr with my explanation. At least you may understand, or correct me where I'm going wrong.
 
Kwani waziri mkuu alipoulizwa na KUB bungeni kuhusu hali ya uchumi alijibu mini?

Na watu humu wakamshangaa. Lile ni jibu mujarab, kwamba let me get back to yo in a min.
Roughly, it may seem kwamba 900bn$ za TRA zinalipa madeni. OK the wage bill is Half a trillion, this is constant (+/-10%).
Na amesema one third inalipa mishahara. Niambie lini TRA ilikusanya 1. 6 Trillions?
Hapo bado kuna expenses nyingine nyingi tu.

I will be back in like 1hr with my explanation. At least you may understand, or correct me where I'm going wrong.
Kwahiyo argument yako ipo katika 1.6T, sasa nikikueleza mwezi uliopita ilikuwa 1.3T does it make any difference.
 
Kwahiyo argument yako ipo katika 1.6T, sasa nikikueleza mwezi uliopita ilikuwa 1.3T does it make any difference.
Argument yangu haipo kwenye 1.6T na hata ukisema 1.3T bado haimaanishi 900bn zililipwa madeni na 500bil mshahara.. or 400bil or whatever.
Nimekuwekea document chini inayoonyesha mapato na matumizi ya serikali kwa mwezi july 2016.

Note that:
  • Tax Revenue = 1,242,417 million Shs.
  • Total Expenditure = 849, 028 mil. Shs.
  • Overall Balance (After grants and ammortization) = 498,611 mil. Shs
Total expenditure:
  • Wages = 534,134 mil. Shs
  • Interest payments = 83,451 mil. shs.
  • Development 129,142 mil. shs.
  • Others = 102,301 mil. shs.
Financing:
-498,611
(negative sign kuonyesha payments, yaani instead of borrowing, the government allocated that money to debt payments)
Net loans:
  • Development loans = 54, 883 mil Shs.
  • Ammortization = 37,809 mil. Shs.
  • Net Foreign) financing = 17, 074 mil. shs.
From above explanation, utaona kuwa
Serikali imedeposit (imelipa banks na non banks), 624,959 mil shs kwa mwezi wa July.

Kwa mwanasiasa atatumia hiyo figure hapo juu na kusema kuwa tumetumia bilioni 625 mwezi July kulipa madeni. Hii inaweza kuwa sawa ila unapoingiza kuwa, tumetumia hizo hela from TRA unakosea.Hela zilizobaki zilikuwa Milioni 438,821.

Bajeti iliestimate kuwa mwezi July tungekuwa na upungufu wa 178,381 mil. shs. (tungekuwa na negative balance after checks were cleared amounting to that).
Bajeti pia iliestimate tungekopa domestically 76,737 mil. Shs.(ili tulipe 76,737 mil shs.)

Vilevile tungekopa 292,927 (Foreign development aid), ila ikakopwa 53,000mil. shs.

Badala yake, serikali imelipa 624,959. Waay ahead of the budget. Hii serikali ya Maghufuli inalipa madeni bila kuingiza madeni and thats a good thing. But it's not true kuwa 900bn za TRA zinalipa madeni a month.

Now tell me what you know, na unipe hizo data zako. Achana na wanasiasa, lete data ambazo siyo magazeti.
 

Attachments

Hii serikali ya Maghufuli inalipa madeni bila kuingiza madeni and thats a good thing. But it's not true kuwa 900bn za TRA zinalipa madeni a month.

Now tell me what you know, na unipe hizo data zako. Achana na wanasiasa, lete data ambazo siyo magazeti.
Magazeti hayana tatizo yamemnukuu the second in command. Kama Makamu naye haaminiki kuna tatizo

Pili, mkuu majuzi serikali ya magufuli imekopa ''3.5T?'' hii ikiwa ni pamoja na kulipa mifuko ya jamii

Tatu, kama serikali inalipa madeni, deni la Taifa linaongezeka kwa sababu zipi?
 
Argument yangu haipo kwenye 1.6T na hata ukisema 1.3T bado haimaanishi 900bn zililipwa madeni na 500bil mshahara.. or 400bil or whatever.
Nimekuwekea document chini inayoonyesha mapato na matumizi ya serikali kwa mwezi july 2016.

Note that:
  • Tax Revenue = 1,242,417 million Shs.
  • Total Expenditure = 849, 028 mil. Shs.
  • Overall Balance (After grants and ammortization) = 498,611 mil. Shs
Total expenditure:
  • Wages = 534,134 mil. Shs
  • Interest payments = 83,451 mil. shs.
  • Development 129,142 mil. shs.
  • Others = 102,301 mil. shs.
Financing:
-498,611
(negative sign kuonyesha payments, yaani instead of borrowing, the government allocated that money to debt payments)
Net loans:
  • Development loans = 54, 883 mil Shs.
  • Ammortization = 37,809 mil. Shs.
  • Net Foreign) financing = 17, 074 mil. shs.
From above explanation, utaona kuwa
Serikali imedeposit (imelipa banks na non banks), 624,959 mil shs kwa mwezi wa July.

Kwa mwanasiasa atatumia hiyo figure hapo juu na kusema kuwa tumetumia bilioni 625 mwezi July kulipa madeni. Hii inaweza kuwa sawa ila unapoingiza kuwa, tumetumia hizo hela from TRA unakosea.Hela zilizobaki zilikuwa Milioni 438,821.

Bajeti iliestimate kuwa mwezi July tungekuwa na upungufu wa 178,381 mil. shs. (tungekuwa na negative balance after checks were cleared amounting to that).
Bajeti pia iliestimate tungekopa domestically 76,737 mil. Shs.(ili tulipe 76,737 mil shs.)

Vilevile tungekopa 292,927 (Foreign development aid), ila ikakopwa 53,000mil. shs.

Badala yake, serikali imelipa 624,959. Waay ahead of the budget. Hii serikali ya Maghufuli inalipa madeni bila kuingiza madeni and thats a good thing. But it's not true kuwa 900bn za TRA zinalipa madeni a month.

Now tell me what you know, na unipe hizo data zako. Achana na wanasiasa, lete data ambazo siyo magazeti.

Kunyofoa nyofoa details za Mwezi mmoja kunakusaidia wewe tu kujifurahisha na pengine kupotosha wale wa "Twaweza", sio sisi wa "Tunaweza".

Usipotoshe kwa hoja kwamba serikali ya Magufuli inalipa madeni badala ya kuongeza madeni. Unapenda sana Takwimu, nashangaa katika Pita pita zako kwenye makabrasha umeshindwa kuona ni kiasi gani JPM is raising domestic and external debts? Magufuli hakopi? He operates as if yeye bado ni Waziri wa Miundombinu, na sekta hii ndio inachukua mikopo mingi kuliko nyingine zozote. Correlation na poverty alleviation? Hapa Kazi Tu!


Waziri Mpango aliomba bunge liidhinishe karibia TZS trilioni Tisa kwa ajili ya kulipa deni la taifa peke yake for 2016/17. Hizi fedha ambazo ni almost TZS 700b a month zinatokea kwenye vyanzo gani? Gavana Ndullu anaposema serikali ya Magufuli imevunja rekodi kwa kulipa kiwango kikubwa cha deni la taifa katika kipindi kifupi, over TZS 300b within 90 days, hizi fedha zinatokea wapi?

Mmezoea kuendesha serikali in an opaque manner. Wakemeeni Suluhu na Ndullu waache kuwa transparent kuhusu fedha za walipa kodi.

Sent from my SM-G530H using JamiiForums mobile app
 
Magazeti hayana tatizo yamemnukuu the second in command. Kama Makamu naye haaminiki kuna tatizo

Pili, mkuu majuzi serikali ya magufuli imekopa ''3.5T?'' hii ikiwa ni pamoja na kulipa mifuko ya jamii

Tatu, kama serikali inalipa madeni, deni la Taifa linaongezeka kwa sababu zipi?
Majuzi ndiyo lini?
Of course serikali inakopa foreign na domestic banks na itakapokopa, deni litaongezeka. Ila nimekupa mfano wa mwezi July, may be mwezi October inakopa ili kulipa madeni, if so madeni yataongezeka.
Mpaka sasa serikali inalipa kuliko inavyokopa (2016/17). labda wewe una infos zingine, onyesha basi.
 
Kunyofoa nyofoa details za Mwezi mmoja kunakusaidia wewe tu kujifurahisha na pengine kupotosha wale wa "Twaweza", sio sisi wa "Tunaweza".

Usipotoshe kwa hoja kwamba serikali ya Magufuli inalipa madeni badala ya kuongeza madeni. Unapenda sana Takwimu, nashangaa katika Pita pita zako kwenye makabrasha umeshindwa kuona ni kiasi gani JPM is raising domestic and external debts? Magufuli hakopi? He operates as if yeye bado ni Waziri wa Miundombinu, na sekta hii ndio inachukua mikopo mingi kuliko nyingine zozote. Correlation na poverty alleviation? Hapa Kazi Tu!


Waziri Mpango aliomba bunge liidhinishe karibia TZS trilioni Tisa kwa ajili ya kulipa deni la taifa peke yake for 2016/17. Hizi fedha ambazo ni almost TZS 700b a month zinatokea kwenye vyanzo gani? Gavana Ndullu anaposema serikali ya Magufuli imevunja rekodi kwa kulipa kiwango kikubwa cha deni la taifa katika kipindi kifupi, over TZS 300b within 90 days, hizi fedha zinatokea wapi?

Mmezoea kuendesha serikali in an opaque manner. Wakemeeni Suluhu na Ndullu waache kuwa transparent kuhusu fedha za walipa kodi.

Sent from my SM-G530H using JamiiForums mobile app
Wewe unapiga porojo, weka data ulizo Nazo. Kwa 2016/17 serikali imekopa kiasi gain?
Onyesha.
Kukujibu swali lako, Angelia estimated expenditures na estimated revenues. Very simple, weka statement ya August ukitaka, an mwezi Wowote.
Uswahili mwingi Mara Twaweza/Tunaweza ..... I'm not in to taarab bro!
 
Majuzi ndiyo lini?
Of course serikali inakopa foreign na domestic banks na itakapokopa, deni litaongezeka. Ila nimekupa mfano wa mwezi July, may be mwezi October inakopa ili kulipa madeni, if so madeni yataongezeka.
Mpaka sasa serikali inalipa kuliko inavyokopa (2016/17). labda wewe una infos zingine, onyesha basi.
Mbona una ji contradict sana. Kwamba inakopa, halafu deni linaongezeka, na kisha inalipa kuliko inavyokopa. Mkuu hapa unachanganya umma tu labda kama una maelezo mengine

Katika kipindi cha miezi 11 serikali imekopa kuliko inavyolipa.
Deni limetoka 40T sasa ni 50T. Hakuna malipo yaliyofikia 2T katika kipindi hicho, upo bize kabisa ku spin
 
Usifuate maneno ya Mama Samia na ku-conclude. Yeye hahusiki na Budgetary operations, sitamlaumu asipojua hizo 900bn zimetoka wapi.
Makamu wa Rais hajui?
Hii serikali ya Maghufuli inalipa madeni bila kuingiza madeni and thats a good thing.
Sure, that's a good thing...
Of course serikali inakopa foreign na domestic banks na itakapokopa, deni litaongezeka...
Hey, wait a minute...
Mpaka sasa serikali inalipa kuliko inavyokopa (2016/17).
Huyu Kobello kusema kweli namvulia kofia...usipomsoma kwa makini hutaweza kumuelewa anachojaribu kufanya hapa. Hawa ndio wanaitwa chief spin doctors wa status quo na serikali yetu hii inawahitaji sana watu wenye kipaji kama yeye. Anachotetea hapa ni kwamba deni linaongezeka kwa sababu serikali inajitahidi kulipa madeni na ili kufanikisha hilo ni lazima iendelee kukopa!

Asichokiri ni kwamba serikali inaendelea kukopa kwa sababu hali ya uchumi ni mbaya akidai inakopa kwa sababu hali ya uchumi inaendelea kukua kwa kasi ambayo haijashuhudiwa! Hali hiyo ya uchumi kuwa nzuri ndiko kunaiwezesha serikali kulipa madeni yake hata kama haina hela! Hata hivyo akihitimisha anadai kuwa pamoja na yote serikali inalipa kuliko inavyokopa huku deni likizidi kuongezeka!

At one time I almost convinced myself that this guy Kobello was real...!
 
Makamu wa Rais hajui?

Sure, that's a good thing...

Hey, wait a minute...

Huyu Kobello kusema kweli namvulia kofia...usipomsoma kwa makini hutaweza kumuelewa anachojaribu kufanya hapa. Hawa ndio wanaitwa chief spin doctors wa status quo na serikali yetu hii inawahitaji sana watu wenye kipaji kama yeye. Anachotetea hapa ni kwamba deni linaongezeka kwa sababu serikali inajitahidi kulipa madeni na ili kufanikisha hilo ni lazima iendelee kukopa!

Asichokiri ni kwamba serikali inaendelea kukopa kwa sababu hali ya uchumi ni mbaya akidai inakopa kwa sababu hali ya uchumi inaendelea kukua kwa kasi ambayo haijashuhudiwa! Hali hiyo ya uchumi kuwa nzuri ndiko kunaiwezesha serikali kulipa madeni yake hata kama haina hela! Hata hivyo akihitimisha anadai kuwa pamoja na yote serikali inalipa kuliko inavyokopa huku deni likizidi kuongezeka!

At one time I almost convinced myself that this guy Kobello was real...!
Uuhwhi! nilidhani nasoma tofauti mwenyewe. Katika bandiko 113 kuna mshangao huu huu

Yaani serikali inakopa kwa kulipa mifuko ya jamii. Halafu tunaambiwa deni linapunguzwa, kule tulikokopa linaongezeka, lakini tunaaminishwa linapungua sana tu!

Pili, anasema serikali inalipa kwa kasi. Deni la ndani limelipwa to the tune of 90B, je, kiasi hicho ni sehemu gani ya deni zima na ina justify kasi!

Tatu, deni lile lile la Taifa linaongezeka katika kasi ya kulipa, what's going on here!

Kuna bandiko Kobello kamwaga namba katika simple question, inalipa kutoka wapi?
Anasema si hazina, then tuambiwe source! kilichofuata ni namba mfululizo,wajuvi tukajua 'spin master'
 
Uuhwhi! nilidhani nasoma tofauti mwenyewe. Katika bandiko 113 kuna mshangao huu huu

Yaani serikali inakopa kwa kulipa mifuko ya jamii. Halafu tunaambiwa deni linapunguzwa, kule tulikokopa linaongezeka, lakini tunaaminishwa linapungua sana tu!

Pili, anasema serikali inalipa kwa kasi. Deni la ndani limelipwa to the tune of 90B, je, kiasi hicho ni sehemu gani ya deni zima na ina justify kasi!

Tatu, deni lile lile la Taifa linaongezeka katika kasi ya kulipa, what's going on here!

Kuna bandiko Kobello kamwaga namba katika simple question, inalipa kutoka wapi?
Anasema si hazina, then tuambiwe source! kilichofuata ni namba mfululizo,wajuvi tukajua 'spin master'
Ha ha haa spin master Kobello...I don’t really believe anything I say. Because the nature of my work concerns the spaces between the words, rather than the words themselves.​
201201171.png
 
Makamu wa Rais hajui?

Sure, that's a good thing...

Hey, wait a minute...

Huyu Kobello kusema kweli namvulia kofia...usipomsoma kwa makini hutaweza kumuelewa anachojaribu kufanya hapa. Hawa ndio wanaitwa chief spin doctors wa status quo na serikali yetu hii inawahitaji sana watu wenye kipaji kama yeye. Anachotetea hapa ni kwamba deni linaongezeka kwa sababu serikali inajitahidi kulipa madeni na ili kufanikisha hilo ni lazima iendelee kukopa!

Asichokiri ni kwamba serikali inaendelea kukopa kwa sababu hali ya uchumi ni mbaya akidai inakopa kwa sababu hali ya uchumi inaendelea kukua kwa kasi ambayo haijashuhudiwa! Hali hiyo ya uchumi kuwa nzuri ndiko kunaiwezesha serikali kulipa madeni yake hata kama haina hela! Hata hivyo akihitimisha anadai kuwa pamoja na yote serikali inalipa kuliko inavyokopa huku deni likizidi kuongezeka!

At one time I almost convinced myself that this guy Kobello was real...!
Hapo ni sawa na kusema Mimi nimeongopa.
Sawa!
But I gave you figures, you can deny them by bringing your figures from your sources.
Nguruvi3 , amesema in 11months government imekopa 10T. Si aonyeshe sources au aweke hizo data hapa? Ukisema bila kuanika chanzo, unamaanisha kuwa you just know it.

Okay, taarab pembeni.

December, 2015 mpaka July, 2016 Deni LA Taifa zimeongezeka kwa 3.6T na Kati ya hizo, Private sector loans ni 1.2 na Central government and Public Corporations Deni liliongezeka by 2.4T. Hapa tunazungumzia ongezeko LA principal na interest. Central Government part of this loan is about 1.9T.

Kwa hiyo, kutoka na data za Nguruvi3 . Kuna Kama 8T zilikopwa August na September. Kwanini asiuonyeshe sources zake?
Sources zangu zipo kwenye BOT (MER/QEB)

Total interest paid by Central Government ni approximately 0.97T.
Ninachowaambia Mimi ni kuwa, mwezi July ambazo ni mwezi wa kwanza wa (2016/17), serikali imelipa 0.625T to domestic banks and non-bank institutions. Na imekopa net bil17 foreign na bil.76 local.

Sasa hapo ni sawa kusema serikali imelipa kuliko ilivyokopa kwa 2016/17 financial year? Maana estimates za bajeti zulikadiria -178bn balance and it ended up to be 461bn surplus.

.
 
Uuhwhi! nilidhani nasoma tofauti mwenyewe. Katika bandiko 113 kuna mshangao huu huu

Yaani serikali inakopa kwa kulipa mifuko ya jamii. Halafu tunaambiwa deni linapunguzwa, kule tulikokopa linaongezeka, lakini tunaaminishwa linapungua sana tu!

Pili, anasema serikali inalipa kwa kasi. Deni la ndani limelipwa to the tune of 90B, je, kiasi hicho ni sehemu gani ya deni zima na ina justify kasi!

Tatu, deni lile lile la Taifa linaongezeka katika kasi ya kulipa, what's going on here!

Kuna bandiko Kobello kamwaga namba katika simple question, inalipa kutoka wapi?
Anasema si hazina, then tuambiwe source! kilichofuata ni namba mfululizo,wajuvi tukajua 'spin master'
Major Taarab
 
Back
Top Bottom