Magufuli 2015-2020: Matarajio ya uchumi na changamoto zake

[Kobello]

Mkuu haya mambo si kusoma kama kasuku, you need to read, digest and understand the contents and context. Nina uhakika unasoma

That's exactly what I just told you. Huelewi .... I can tell.
Sasa hapo ndiyo umeongea nini?

 

[Mchambuzi]

56. "Honourable Speaker, in recognising the importance of quality health services to the people, the Government has budgeted shillings 1.99 trillion equivalent to 9.2 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service. The areas allocated funds among others include: shillings 180.5 billion for purchase of medicines, medical equipment and reagents; shillings 71.0 billion for settlement of the outstanding Medical Stores Department debt; and improvement of health services’ infrastructure at all levels"

Hiyo ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti ya 2016/17.



"Since the bulk of basic education financing comes from domestic resources, the strong political will of governments for national resource mobilization is a critical factor. Governments are encouraged to invest 4-6 per cent of GNP and 15-20 per cent of public expenditure in education, depending on the country’s demographic and economic status" - WEF, Dakar Framework for Action, 2000.

Na hii chini ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti 2016/17,

Education .
55. "Honourable Speaker, a total of shillings 4.77 trillion has been budgeted for the education sector equivalent to 22.1 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service. The allocation has been made to address among others: free basic education; operational costs for schools including capitation, food, purchase of books and examinations expenses; higher education students’ loans; construction and rehabilitation of infrastructures at all levels."




Hapa chini ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti, 2016/17.

"Concerns in Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Sector
49. Honourable Speaker, in order to address the above challenges, the Government has budgeted shillings 1.06 trillion equivalent to 4.9 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service to finance various activities in the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sector including purchase of farm implements and inputs; improve and ensure availability of reliable market; and increase the number of extension officers."



Hii pia ni sehemu ya hotuba ya bajeti 2016/17.

"52. Honourable Speaker, the Government will continue to address concerns and challenges arising from dilapidated infrastructure of railway, roads, ports and airports. In 2016/17, the Government has budgeted shillings 5.47 trillion equivalent to 25.4 percent of the total budget excluding public debt service for infrastructure projects. The allocation of funds per sector is as follows:

(i) Works - Total of shillings 2.18 trillion for construction and rehabilitation of roads that open up economic opportunities;

(ii) Transport – Total of shillings 2.49 trillion for: construction of a standard gauge railway line; acquisition of three new passenger aircrafts; acquisition and rehabilitation of passenger ships in lake Victoria and Tanganyika; improvement of port infrastructure; and rehabilitation of airports. Moreover, shillings 161.4 billion has been budgeted under Railway Fund for rehabilitation of central railway line and procurement of locomotives and wagons."





Mwaka 2000 inakadiriwa kwamba 82% ya watanzania walijishughulisha na kilimo,na mpaka 2014 ilikuwa ni 67%.
Sekta ya kilimo inaajiri watu wengi kuliko inavyotakiwa na hili siyo jambo zuri hata kidogo. Sekta hii inabidi ipunguzwe, lakini ipunguzwe kueleke manufacturing na siyo services kama ilivyo sasa.

Kwa sasa hivi, secta ya huduma ipo stagnant na manufacturing inaongrzeka ingawa siyo katika rate itakayoleta mabadiliko yanayotakiwa.

Nimekusoma sana unavyosisitiza investment kwenye kilimo na hii siyo structural adjustment itakayotuletea maendeleo faster.

We can discuss Industrialization process, kwa sababu naona maoni yako kuhusu sekta ya viwanda yapo kinyume.



What about us?
Sekta hizi pia zipo affected na tamaduni zetu za kupenda kujisomea, usafi n.k there is a considerable research suggesting that the value for money in these sectors is very low. Yaani outcome ni ndogo mno compared to rural India for example.

But still, there need to be more investment.



I am not gonna stoop to your level, ila itabidi uelewe kuwa Population below poverty line in 2000 ilikuwa 84.1% na mpaka mwaka 2011 ilifikia 67.9% according to WB data. Hii ni sawa na punguzo la umasikini kwa 20%.

Kwa kuwa umetumia MDG goals, ilitakiwa iwe 18% from 36% ($1.90 a day, 2011 PPP). mpaka 2012, ilkuwa 28.12% na hii ni roughly 22%.

Vipimo vyote hivi vimeonyesha punguzo la umasikini kwa roughly 20% instead of 50% expected. This performance is poor na sitakubishia hilo.

All in all, unapotumia vielelezo hapo ndipo inapojulikana how exaggerated your conclusions are, and you wonder why am I so obsessed with data?

Data ulizotumia sijui umezipata wapi ila, kwa sisi kujua hilo linatuwezesha kujua why are you so negative? It's really bad in Tanzania but daamn!

Inawezekana kabisa nilisoma vibaya kwani vyanzo vyangu ni kama ifuatavyo:

1. Bajeti ya Kilimo

Katika ukurasa wa 120 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1462468891-Hotuba-ya-Bajeti-2016-17-1.pdf), Hotuba wa Waziri wa Kilimo, Mifugo na Uvuvi inasomeka hivi:

6.0 MAOMBI YA FEDHA MWAKA 2016/2017

276. Mheshimiwa Spika, katika mwaka 2016/2017, Wizara ya Kilimo Mifugo na Uvuvi kupitia Fungu 43, Fungu 24 na Fungu 99 inaomba jumla ya Shilingi 275,063,518,000 kama ifuatavyo:

FUNGU 43

277. Mheshimiwa Spika, jumla ya Shilingi 210,359,133,000 zinaombwa. Kati ya fedha hizo, Shilingi 109,831,636,000 ni kwa ajili ya Matumizi ya Kawaida na Shilingi 100,527,497,000 ni kwa ajili ya kutekeleza Miradi ya Maendeleo.

FUNGU 24

278. Mheshimiwa Spika, kiasi cha Shilingi 4,894,921,000 kinaombwa kwa ajili ya matumizi ya kawaida.

FUNGU 99

279. Mheshimiwa Spika, jumla ya Shilingi 59,809,527,000 zinaombwa. Kati ya fedha hizo, Shilingi 43,936,312,000 ni kwa ajili ya Matumizi ya Kawaida na Shilingi 15,873,215,000 ni kwa

ajili ya kutekeleza Miradi ya Maendeleo.

2. Bajeti Afya

Katika ukurasa wa 58 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1463073064-Hotuba ya Bajeti_AFYA-Waziri.pdf), hotuba ya Waziri wa Afya, Maendeleo ya Jamii, Wazee, Jinsia na Watoto inasomeka hivi:

164: Maombi ya Fedha kwa ajili ya kazi zilizopangwa kutekelezwa katika mwaka wa fedha 2016/2017:

“Ili kuwezesha wizara yangu kutekeleza kazi zilizopo katika mwaka 2016/17, naliomba bunge lako tukufu likubali kuidhinisha makadirio ya makusanyo ya Shilingi 166,138,358,857 kutoka katika mashirika na taasisi zilizopo chini ya wizara yangu na vyanzo vya makao makuu. Aidha naomba pia bunge lako tukufu likubali kuidhinisha makadirio ya matumizi ya wizara pamoja na taasisi zake yenye jumla ya Shilingi 845,112,920,056. Kati ya fedha hizo, shilingi 317,752,653,000.00 ni kwa ajili ya matumizi ya kawaida na Shilingi 527,360,267,056.00 ni kwa ajili ya utekelezaji wa miradi ya maendeleo.

3. Bajeti Elimu

Katika ukurasa wa 95 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads...80317-HOTUBA_WEST_2016_FINAL - 23-05-2016.pdf) Hotuba ya Waziri wa Elimu, Sayansi, Tekinolojia na ufundi inasomeka kama ifuatavyo:

Maombi ya Fedha kwa Mwaka 2016/17:

“Mheshimishiwa Spika, ili kuwezesha utekelezaji wa malengo yaliyopangwa katika mwaka 2016/17, Wizara ya Elimu, Sayansi, Tekinolojia na Ufundi inaomba kuidhinishiwa jumla ya Shilingi 1,396,929,798,625 ili kutekeleza majukumu yake kwa ufanisi.”

Waziri anaendelea kuchanganua fedha hizo zinaelekezwa katika nini.

All that said and done, bado hoja yangu imesimamia pale pale i.e hatufanikiwi kuendeleza sekta muhimu za Kilimo, Afya na Elimu kwa sababu Serikali bado haitekelezi malengo yaliyowekwa na AU miaka miaka mingi iliyopita kule Abuja, Maputo na Dakar. Kwa mfano:

Afya:
Kama nilivyojadili, Serikali ilitakiwa kufanya allocation ya angalau 15% ya bajeti yake kwa ajili ya sekta ya Afya tu. Utekelezaji katika hili umeendelea kusua sua licha ya FYDP II kutaja 15% kama lengo, in 2020. The government needs to rethink this and reinstate this commitment na kuwekeza zaidi katika sekta hii muhimu ya Afya. Kwa kufanya hivyo, kutatokea ‘multiplier effect’ katika sekta nyinginezo na uchumi kwa ujumla (rejea mjadala wa awali kuhusu umuhimu wa Human Capital/Mtaji Watu katika uchumi)

Kilimo:
Umekuja na takwimu zako katika hili. Mimi zangu chanzo chake ni (FYDP II 2016/17 – 2020/21), ambapo inaainishwa kwamba Sekta ya Kilimo inaajiri takribani 70% of the population, inachangia 28% of GDP, 30% ya exports and 65% ya inputs to the industrial sector. Maelezo yako ni kama vile yanaashiria kwamba Kilimo chetu kinasonga mbele. Is that so? Hii sio kweli. Kwa mfano, kwa miaka zaidi ya 20 sasa, kwa wastani, agriculture growth haijawahi kuvuka 4%.


Nikuulize:
*Kinachofanya mshangilie kwa vigele gele, nderemo na vifijo kasi ya kukua kwa uchumi (7%) ni nini hasa iwapo sekta ya Kilimo ambayo inaajiri 70% of the population, inachangia almost one third of GDP, inachangia almost one third of exports (hence foreign earnings), inachangia almost two thirds ya inputs katika industrial sector, kasi yake ya kukua kwa uchumi katika kipindi chote cha nderemo zenu imekuwa ni chini ya 4%?

*Kumbuka kwamba malengo ya MKUKUTA II and FYDP I yalikuwa ni growth of 6% kufikia 2015. Utasemaje kwamba tunapiga hatua wakati hata malengo yenyewe ya Serikali hayajawahi fikiwa?

Kilio kikubwa miongoni mwa wadau wa sekta ya Kilimo nchini ni ufinyu wa bajeti. Budget allocation per Maputo Declaration ni at least 10%. Hatutekelezi hilo, na ndio maana many of the targets set are not realized. Fanya utafiti kuhusu Malawi – jinsi gani walinufaika kwa kutekeleza Azimio hili la Maputo.


Elimu:
Kumekuwepo na changamoto nyingi na za muda mrefu zinazotokana na the way allocation ya fedha inavyofanyika katika sekta ya elimu. Kwa mfano kwa kipindi kirefu kiwango cha fedha kinachotengwa kwa ajili ya matumizi ya maendeleo kimekuwa hakiridhishi ambapo karibia 90% ya kila bajeti zimekuwa zikiishia kwenye matumizi ya kawaida badala ya matumizi ya maendeleo kisekta. Matokeo yake ni kwamba sekta hii muhimu kwa uchumi wa nchi imeendelea kudorora.

Lakini bajeti ya mwaka huu (2016/17) ina sura tofauti katika hili, kwani kiasi kikubwa zaidi cha fedha kimeelekezwa katika miradi ya maendeleo kuliko matumizi ya kawaida. Iwapo utaratibu huu utaendelea (angalau 40% of the budget kwenda kwenye miradi ya maendeleo), tutaweza kupiga hatua.


Angalizo:
Lakini katika hili la bajeti ya maendeleo, ipo changamoto nyingine kubwa. Fedha kwa ajili ya mikopo ya elimu ya juu zimekuwa zikijumuishwa katika fungu la miradi ya maendeleo na kutoa picha kwamba kiasi cha fedha kwa ajili miradi ya maendeleo (elimu), wakati uhalisia haupo hivyo. Kwa mfano kwa mwaka wa fedha wa 2015/2016, karibia nusu ya fedha zote zilizotengwa kwa ajili ya miradi ya Maendeleo zilikuwa ni kwa ajili ya mikopo Elimu ya juu. Kwa maana hii, the actual budget for development activities in the education sector was very low. Kuna haja ya kuziondoa fedha hizi za Mikopo ya Elimu ya juu kwenye fungu la maendeleo na kuziamisha kwenye fungu la matumizi ya kawaida. By doing so, tutaweza kuona na kujua ukweli kuhusu kiasi cha fedha kinachotengwa kila mwaka kwa ajili ya matumizi ya maendeleo ya sekta ya Elimu.


Umejadili mkakati wa Elimu bure. Kwa mujibu wa utafiti uliofanywa na HakiElimu, ili kutekeleza mkakati huu, serikali inapaswa kutenga kiasi kisichopungua Shilingi bilioni 852 kwa ajili ya kutekeleza sera ya Elimu bure peke yake, nje ya mtumizi mengine. Je, Serikali imejipanga kutekeleza hili kwa kipindi cha miaka mitano (2015-2020)?

Lipo pia suala la Serikali kushindwa kutekeleza malengo ya Dakar juu kiwango cha bajeti kuelekezwa sekta ya Elimu.

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Vipimo vyote hivi vimeonyesha punguzo la umasikini kwa roughly 20% instead of 50% expected. This performance is poor na sitakubishia hilo.

All in all, unapotumia vielelezo hapo ndipo inapojulikana how exaggerated your conclusions are, and you wonder why am I so obsessed with data?

Mkuu Kobello,

Umekiri mwenyewe kuwa kiwango cha 20% poverty reduction sio kizuri, tafsiri rahisi kushindwa kufikia lengo la kupunguza umaskini kwa 50%. Pamoja na ukweli kuwa hata hiyo 20% ni very contentious rate (because it certainly doesn't reflect the reality on ground ...read real/actual lives). Hivyo basi:-

1. Je unaweza kueleza kwa usahihi na mifano why such a NET failure by the government?

2. Kwanini tuamini au tushawishike kuwa safari hii/awamu hii kutakuwa na positive output?

3. Hoja za Mchambuzi zina nguvu kwa sababu ya inconsistencies zilizoko kwenye sera, mikakati, malengo, ripoti na nyaraka nyingine za Serikali. Ni dhambi kuruhusu akili, japo ya kawaida, kumeza na kukubaliana na hizo vagueness bila kuhoji na kuchambua zaidi ya kilichoandikwa.

As you have readily confessed of your data obsession; but be kindly reminded that those reports/data may appeal to an "academic minded" person, apparently some are pretty readable but alas! they do not offer any clue to success and eventually to the desired substances/results. Substance/Results/Matunda hapo tu.

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Inawezekana kabisa nilisoma vibaya kwani vyanzo vyangu ni kama ifuatavyo:

1. Bajeti ya Kilimo

Katika ukurasa wa 120 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1462468891-Hotuba-ya-Bajeti-2016-17-1.pdf), Hotuba wa Waziri wa Kilimo, Mifugo na Uvuvi inasomeka hivi:

6.0 MAOMBI YA FEDHA MWAKA 2016/2017

276. Mheshimiwa Spika, katika mwaka 2016/2017, Wizara ya Kilimo Mifugo na Uvuvi kupitia Fungu 43, Fungu 24 na Fungu 99 inaomba jumla ya Shilingi 275,063,518,000 kama ifuatavyo:

FUNGU 43

277. Mheshimiwa Spika, jumla ya Shilingi 210,359,133,000 zinaombwa. Kati ya fedha hizo, Shilingi 109,831,636,000 ni kwa ajili ya Matumizi ya Kawaida na Shilingi 100,527,497,000 ni kwa ajili ya kutekeleza Miradi ya Maendeleo.

FUNGU 24

278. Mheshimiwa Spika, kiasi cha Shilingi 4,894,921,000 kinaombwa kwa ajili ya matumizi ya kawaida.

FUNGU 99

279. Mheshimiwa Spika, jumla ya Shilingi 59,809,527,000 zinaombwa. Kati ya fedha hizo, Shilingi 43,936,312,000 ni kwa ajili ya Matumizi ya Kawaida na Shilingi 15,873,215,000 ni kwa

Mkuu Mchambuzi,

Hii tabia ya baadhi ya watu/taaisis kukanusha na/au kutoa data/ripoti za kuunga-unga ili kufikia malengo ya kisiasa ni hatari na mbaya sana, imeligharimu Taifa kwa muda mrefu na sioni ikikoma siku chache zijazo.

Utitiri wa ripoti/majedwali yasiyojibu wala kuendana na uhalisia hayana maana.

Nikuulize:
*Kinachofanya mshangilie kwa vigele gele, nderemo na vifijo kasi ya kukua kwa uchumi (7%) ni nini hasa iwapo sekta ya Kilimo ambayo inaajiri 70% of the population, inachangia almost one third of GDP, inachangia almost one third of exports (hence foreign earnings), inachangia almost two thirds ya inputs katika industrial sector, kasi yake ya kukua kwa uchumi katika kipindi chote cha nderemo zenu imekuwa ni chini ya 4%?

I second the same.

 

[Kobello]

Inawezekana kabisa nilisoma vibaya

Hukusoma vibaya, ila umeelewa vibaya

kwani vyanzo vyangu ni kama ifuatavyo:

1. Bajeti ya Kilimo

Katika ukurasa wa 120 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1462468891-Hotuba-ya-Bajeti-2016-17-1.pdf), Hotuba wa Waziri wa Kilimo, Mifugo na Uvuvi inasomeka hivi:

6.0 MAOMBI YA FEDHA MWAKA 2016/2017

276. Mheshimiwa Spika, katika mwaka 2016/2017, Wizara ya Kilimo Mifugo na Uvuvi kupitia Fungu 43, Fungu 24 na Fungu 99 inaomba jumla ya Shilingi 275,063,518,000 kama ifuatavyo:

FUNGU 43

277. Mheshimiwa Spika, jumla ya Shilingi 210,359,133,000 zinaombwa. Kati ya fedha hizo, Shilingi 109,831,636,000 ni kwa ajili ya Matumizi ya Kawaida na Shilingi 100,527,497,000 ni kwa ajili ya kutekeleza Miradi ya Maendeleo.

FUNGU 24

278. Mheshimiwa Spika, kiasi cha Shilingi 4,894,921,000 kinaombwa kwa ajili ya matumizi ya kawaida.

FUNGU 99

279. Mheshimiwa Spika, jumla ya Shilingi 59,809,527,000 zinaombwa. Kati ya fedha hizo, Shilingi 43,936,312,000 ni kwa ajili ya Matumizi ya Kawaida na Shilingi 15,873,215,000 ni kwa

ajili ya kutekeleza Miradi ya Maendeleo.
2. Bajeti Afya

Katika ukurasa wa 58 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1463073064-Hotuba ya Bajeti_AFYA-Waziri.pdf), hotuba ya Waziri wa Afya, Maendeleo ya Jamii, Wazee, Jinsia na Watoto inasomeka hivi:

164: Maombi ya Fedha kwa ajili ya kazi zilizopangwa kutekelezwa katika mwaka wa fedha 2016/2017:

“Ili kuwezesha wizara yangu kutekeleza kazi zilizopo katika mwaka 2016/17, naliomba bunge lako tukufu likubali kuidhinisha makadirio ya makusanyo ya Shilingi 166,138,358,857 kutoka katika mashirika na taasisi zilizopo chini ya wizara yangu na vyanzo vya makao makuu. Aidha naomba pia bunge lako tukufu likubali kuidhinisha makadirio ya matumizi ya wizara pamoja na taasisi zake yenye jumla ya Shilingi 845,112,920,056. Kati ya fedha hizo, shilingi 317,752,653,000.00 ni kwa ajili ya matumizi ya kawaida na Shilingi 527,360,267,056.00 ni kwa ajili ya utekelezaji wa miradi ya maendeleo.

3. Bajeti Elimu

Katika ukurasa wa 95 (http://www.parliament.go.tz/uploads/budgetspeeches/1464680317-HOTUBA_WEST_2016_FINAL - 23-05-2016.pdf) Hotuba ya Waziri wa Elimu, Sayansi, Tekinolojia na ufundi inasomeka kama ifuatavyo:

Maombi ya Fedha kwa Mwaka 2016/17:

“Mheshimishiwa Spika, ili kuwezesha utekelezaji wa malengo yaliyopangwa katika mwaka 2016/17, Wizara ya Elimu, Sayansi, Tekinolojia na Ufundi inaomba kuidhinishiwa jumla ya Shilingi 1,396,929,798,625 ili kutekeleza majukumu yake kwa ufanisi.”

Waziri anaendelea kuchanganua fedha hizo zinaelekezwa katika nini.

Unapokosea, ni unapodhani kuwa bajeti ya wizara inayoshughulikia sekta fulani, ndiyo matumizi ya serikali kwenye sekta hiyo. Najiaminisha kuwa unajua hilo, ila umeshachukua position fulani na sasa unataka kuibebea bango. Kama utakuwa unadhani hivyo, nadhani hapo ndipo ulipokosea.

Lets not spend much time on this.

All that said and done, bado hoja yangu imesimamia pale pale i.e hatufanikiwi kuendeleza sekta muhimu za Kilimo, Afya na Elimu kwa sababu Serikali bado haitekelezi malengo yaliyowekwa na AU miaka miaka mingi iliyopita kule Abuja, Maputo na Dakar. Kwa mfano:

Afya:
Kama nilivyojadili, Serikali ilitakiwa kufanya allocation ya angalau 15% ya bajeti yake kwa ajili ya sekta ya Afya tu. Utekelezaji katika hili umeendelea kusua sua licha ya FYDP II kutaja 15% kama lengo, in 2020. The government needs to rethink this and reinstate this commitment na kuwekeza zaidi katika sekta hii muhimu ya Afya. Kwa kufanya hivyo, kutatokea ‘multiplier effect’ katika sekta nyinginezo na uchumi kwa ujumla (rejea mjadala wa awali kuhusu umuhimu wa Human Capital/Mtaji Watu katika uchumi)

Like I told you before, this is mainly going to be driven bY LGAs. Huwa watu wengi wanakasirika, lakini kipimo kizuri cha delivery kwenye Halmashsauri ni AFYA.

Structurally afya Tanzania ipo more into LGAs. They are the ones sleeping big time. I am not into Big sophisticated government hospitals.

Kilimo:
Umekuja na takwimu zako katika hili. Mimi zangu chanzo chake ni (FYDP II 2016/17 – 2020/21), ambapo inaainishwa kwamba Sekta ya Kilimo inaajiri takribani 70% of the population, inachangia 28% of GDP, 30% ya exports and 65% ya inputs to the industrial sector. Maelezo yako ni kama vile yanaashiria kwamba Kilimo chetu kinasonga mbele. Is that so? Hii sio kweli. Kwa mfano, kwa miaka zaidi ya 20 sasa, kwa wastani, agriculture growth haijawahi kuvuka 4%.


Nikuulize:
*Kinachofanya mshangilie kwa vigele gele, nderemo na vifijo kasi ya kukua kwa uchumi (7%) ni nini hasa iwapo sekta ya Kilimo ambayo inaajiri 70% of the population, inachangia almost one third of GDP, inachangia almost one third of exports (hence foreign earnings), inachangia almost two thirds ya inputs katika industrial sector, kasi yake ya kukua kwa uchumi katika kipindi chote cha nderemo zenu imekuwa ni chini ya 4%?

*Kumbuka kwamba malengo ya MKUKUTA II and FYDP I yalikuwa ni growth of 6% kufikia 2015. Utasemaje kwamba tunapiga hatua wakati hata malengo yenyewe ya Serikali hayajawahi fikiwa?

Kilio kikubwa miongoni mwa wadau wa sekta ya Kilimo nchini ni ufinyu wa bajeti. Budget allocation per Maputo Declaration ni at least 10%. Hatutekelezi hilo, na ndio maana many of the targets set are not realized. Fanya utafiti kuhusu Malawi – jinsi gani walinufaika kwa kutekeleza Azimio hili la Maputo.

Data ulizotoa na nilizotoa hazina tofauti yeyote na hazibadilishi mantiki.
Ninachokwambia mimi ni kuwa siku zote mataifa hupigania kuondoa asilimia inayoshiriki kilimo while at the same time kuongeza mapato kutokana na kilimo.

That is what Industrialization means. That is simple economics, kwamba Nations huwa zinaondoka kwenye Agrarian kwenda kwenye manufacturing, then services denominate. Hii haiondoi umuhimu wa kilimo bali inasisitiza value addition kwenye kilimo.

Na unapoongelea Maputo Declaration, 2003(AU-NEPAD 2003). Asilimia themanini (nchi 13 kati ya 44 zilizoripotiwa) hazijafikia 10% and it's not a crime na pia siyo mwarobaini wa maendeleo ya kilimo.

AU-NEPAD wana orodha ya PAE (Public Agricultural Expenditure); Kuna spending zinazo-fall kwenye kilimo na zisizo-fall kwenye kilimo na pia kuna inter-sectorial expenditures ambazo hizo ndiyo zipo debatable. Kwa mfano kwenye miradi ya maji na umeme vijijini huwa haihesabiwi unless kuwe na mradi wa kilimo directly. Kuna issue ya feeder roads vijijini etc...

Nobody really is into these declarations.

Malawi, the poster child of AU-NEPAD in 2015 Agriculture growth ni -2.9%, maize production (staple, by 80%) imeshuka by 30%. Malawi's success story ningependa sana uniambie ikoje?

Expenditure structure pia inabidi ieleweke, matumizi mengi hutumiwa kwenye subsidies za pembejeo na siyo research and development na agricultural infrastructure au Environment vitu ambavyo faida yake huwa kubwa sana mbele ya safari.

Nchi kama Malawi, Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, Niger na Burundi zimefanikiwa kufikia Maputo Declaration, but the Agriculture value Added na ouput ni ndogo sana, because it's 10% of nothing going to short term investments which aren't sustainable.

Basically I think you are exaggerating the importance of these Declarations. They are important but not the only or even major solution.

Elimu:
Kumekuwepo na changamoto nyingi na za muda mrefu zinazotokana na the way allocation ya fedha inavyofanyika katika sekta ya elimu. Kwa mfano kwa kipindi kirefu kiwango cha fedha kinachotengwa kwa ajili ya matumizi ya maendeleo kimekuwa hakiridhishi ambapo karibia 90% ya kila bajeti zimekuwa zikiishia kwenye matumizi ya kawaida badala ya matumizi ya maendeleo kisekta. Matokeo yake ni kwamba sekta hii muhimu kwa uchumi wa nchi imeendelea kudorora.

Lakini bajeti ya mwaka huu (2016/17) ina sura tofauti katika hili, kwani kiasi kikubwa zaidi cha fedha kimeelekezwa katika miradi ya maendeleo kuliko matumizi ya kawaida. Iwapo utaratibu huu utaendelea (angalau 40% of the budget kwenda kwenye miradi ya maendeleo), tutaweza kupiga hatua.


Angalizo:
Lakini katika hili la bajeti ya maendeleo, ipo changamoto nyingine kubwa. Fedha kwa ajili ya mikopo ya elimu ya juu zimekuwa zikijumuishwa katika fungu la miradi ya maendeleo na kutoa picha kwamba kiasi cha fedha kwa ajili miradi ya maendeleo (elimu), wakati uhalisia haupo hivyo. Kwa mfano kwa mwaka wa fedha wa 2015/2016, karibia nusu ya fedha zote zilizotengwa kwa ajili ya miradi ya Maendeleo zilikuwa ni kwa ajili ya mikopo Elimu ya juu. Kwa maana hii, the actual budget for development activities in the education sector was very low. Kuna haja ya kuziondoa fedha hizi za Mikopo ya Elimu ya juu kwenye fungu la maendeleo na kuziamisha kwenye fungu la matumizi ya kawaida. By doing so, tutaweza kuona na kujua ukweli kuhusu kiasi cha fedha kinachotengwa kila mwaka kwa ajili ya matumizi ya maendeleo ya sekta ya Elimu.


Umejadili mkakati wa Elimu bure. Kwa mujibu wa utafiti uliofanywa na HakiElimu, ili kutekeleza mkakati huu, serikali inapaswa kutenga kiasi kisichopungua Shilingi bilioni 852 kwa ajili ya kutekeleza sera ya Elimu bure peke yake, nje ya mtumizi mengine. Je, Serikali imejipanga kutekeleza hili kwa kipindi cha miaka mitano (2015-2020)?

Lipo pia suala la Serikali kushindwa kutekeleza malengo ya Dakar juu kiwango cha bajeti kuelekezwa sekta ya Elimu.

Sijajadili suala la elimu bure.
Na Tanzania ipo kwenye right track in terms of budget amount, but I'm not going to argue with you on budgetary operations za education sector ya Tanzania. Education is very expensive, na ninavyoona shule za Tanzania, zipo kiwango cha chini mno! I wouldn't mind Education ikapewa 30% for ten years straight.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Mkuu Mchambuzi,

Hii tabia ya baadhi ya watu/taaisis kukanusha na/au kutoa data/ripoti za kuunga-unga ili kufikia malengo ya kisiasa ni hatari na mbaya sana, imeligharimu Taifa kwa muda mrefu na sioni ikikoma siku chache zijazo.

Utitiri wa ripoti/majedwali yasiyojibu wala kuendana na uhalisia hayana maana.



I second the same.

Mkuu Ronal Reagan, huo ndio ukweli. Nitakupa mfano mmoja. I have a strong feeling kwamba kwa mwezi October serikali/BOT imepika Takwimu za inflation na national food reserve. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti ya Mwezi October, food reserve ya taifa imeongezeka from September. Hili haliwezekani kwani nchi nzima Hakuna uzalishaji wachakula unless wana akiba nyingine nje ya NFRA kwa ambayo wameenda kuchota na kupeleka NFRA. Pia stats on food inflation zinatia Shaka, wanasema food and non alcoholic beverages inflation (annual change) in October is 6%. Lakini ukiangalia mfuko wa sembe kilo tano mwaka 2015 nyakati hizi was around tzs 16,000. Leo bei ni tzs 30,000. Same applies to maharage etc, bei inapaa. Something is fishy with the stats.

 

[Nguruvi3]

Mkuu Mchambuzi,

Hii tabia ya baadhi ya watu/taaisis kukanusha na/au kutoa data/ripoti za kuunga-unga ili kufikia malengo ya kisiasa ni hatari na mbaya sana, imeligharimu Taifa kwa muda mrefu na sioni ikikoma siku chache zijazo.

Utitiri wa ripoti/majedwali yasiyojibu wala kuendana na uhalisia hayana maana.

Mkuu Ronal Reagan, huo ndio ukweli. Nitakupa mfano mmoja. I have a strong feeling kwamba kwa mwezi October serikali/BOT imepika Takwimu za inflation na Something is fishy with the stats.

Ronal na Mchambuzi naomba niwakumbushe upikaji wa takwimu kwa mfano halisi

Kulitokea wanafunzi wa kidato cha nne na sita walifeli sana katika kiwango cha takribani 60+%
Mwaka uliofuata karibu na uchaguzi ufaulu ukafikia asilimia 80+%

Tuliambiwa serikali iliajiri walimu na hiyo ni 'factor' katika ufaulu

1. Kwamba, in a span of a year walimu waliweza kuongeza ufaulu kwa otherwise 3 or 2 years ya kutokuwa na walimu katika shule hizo

2. Mbinu ya kwanza ikawa kungeza division na kupunguza viwango vya ufaulu.

Tukawa na division 5 ya kuchekesha, alama za ABCD zikapunguzwa, kwamba mwanafunzi anaweza pata 30% akawa na C na division O ikawa kama imefutwa

3. Behind the scenes waziri akatambua watu wamechachamaa akabidilisha mfumo wa tathmini ya matokeo kutoka 'division' kwenda GPA

Yote haya ilikuwa kupika takwimu kuelekea uchaguzi bila kujali madhara kwa taifa

Turudi kwenye mada

 

[Kobello]

Mkuu Ronal Reagan, huo ndio ukweli. Nitakupa mfano mmoja. I have a strong feeling kwamba kwa mwezi October serikali/BOT imepika Takwimu za inflation na national food reserve. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti ya Mwezi October, food reserve ya taifa imeongezeka from September. Hili haliwezekani kwani nchi nzima Hakuna uzalishaji wachakula unless wana akiba nyingine nje ya NFRA kwa ambayo wameenda kuchota na kupeleka NFRA. Pia stats on food inflation zinatia Shaka, wanasema food and non alcoholic beverages inflation (annual change) in October is 6%. Lakini ukiangalia mfuko wa sembe kilo tano mwaka 2015 nyakati hizi was around tzs 16,000. Leo bei ni tzs 30,000. Same applies to maharage etc, bei inapaa. Something is fishy with the stats.

Hizo ni siasa tu bruh,

Bei ya unga wa mahindi October 2015 na bei ya unga wa mahindi October 2016 ni ilieile na range yake ni 1100shs - 1300shs. Mwezi December unga hupanda Bei mpaka Mwezi February na roughly huhitaji 30,000 tonnes ku-absorb shock, mwaka huu nadhani may be 40,000 tonnes kutoka NFRA.


Pia inflation ya vyakula inajumuisha mazao 15 nayo ni

• mahindi,
• mtama,
• ufuta,
• viazi mbatata,
• viazi vitamu,
• ngano,
• mihogo,
• nyama ya kuku,
• mbuzi na n'gombe,
• samaki,
• mafuta ya kupikia,
• embe (kipimo cha matunda mengine kutegemea na msimu).
• mchele,
• maharage,
• ndizi za kupikia

Sasa Ronal Reagan kwanini umuamini mtu kama huyu? Why can't you sit down and think a little bit that these guys are politically motivated to demean and disrespect anybody that brings stats which are differing from their reality?

I'm challenging any of you guys to go to Kariakoo or Temeke stereo market and get the prices on the food basket items that are listed above, for October, November and December this year. It's only 15 items that makes 80% of rural calorie intake and 67% of Dar es salaam calories intake.

Ongezeni na non-alcoholic beverages kama vile juisi za ukwaju etc... Muulize na mwaka jana ilikuwa shillins ngapi? It took my niece 3hours to do it for December (got both last year and this year) and I paid him 100,000/- shs.

Iam willing to pay 200,000?- shs for this to anybody. Find an intern at your office or we can go through Jamiiforums (cc. Maxence Melo ) and find someone who can take this gig.

Don't just sit on your butt and waste your youth on things that will not lead us nowhere, let's do this and calculate food Inflation based on our own data. Then we can challenge the available data.

Then, later on you can start your statement by statistics, that's how people who wanna make a point start their conversation ....

" It will go like .... According to survey done by Jamiiforum member X, we have determined that the food and non-alcoholic inflation on a monthly basis from Nov16 to Dec16 was >>>"

You can't just say things in a lazy way, sometimes these things are just easy to do.

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Ronal na Mchambuzi naomba niwakumbushe upikaji wa takwimu kwa mfano halisi

Kulitokea wanafunzi wa kidato cha nne na sita walifeli sana katika kiwango cha takribani 60+%
Mwaka uliofuata karibu na uchaguzi ufaulu ukafikia asilimia 80+%

Tuliambiwa serikali iliajiri walimu na hiyo ni 'factor' katika ufaulu

1. Kwamba, in a span of a year walimu waliweza kuongeza ufaulu kwa otherwise 3 or 2 years ya kutokuwa na walimu katika shule hizo

2. Mbinu ya kwanza ikawa kungeza division na kupunguza viwango vya ufaulu.

Tukawa na division 5 ya kuchekesha, alama za ABCD zikapunguzwa, kwamba mwanafunzi anaweza pata 30% akawa na C na division O ikawa kama imefutwa

3. Behind the scenes waziri akatambua watu wamechachamaa akabidilisha mfumo wa tathmini ya matokeo kutoka 'division' kwenda GPA

Yote haya ilikuwa kupika takwimu kuelekea uchaguzi bila kujali madhara kwa taifa

Turudi kwenye mada

Mkuu Nguruvi3 Heri ya Mwaka Mpya 2017!

Ni Hatari sana kwa kweli.

 

[Ronal Reagan]

Iam willing to pay 200,000?- shs for this to anybody. Find an intern at your office or we can go through Jamiiforums (cc. Maxence Melo ) and find someone who can take this gig.

Heri ya Mwaka Mpya Kobello,

Utatujulisha hatma ya ofa uliyotoa.

Lakini mimi nimesikia (reliably) gunia la mahindi limepanda toka 50,000 hadi 90,000 kufikia Novemba 2016.

 

[Kobello]

Heri ya Mwaka Mpya Kobello,

Utatujulisha hatma ya ofa uliyotoa.

Lakini mimi nimesikia (reliably) gunia la mahindi limepanda toka 50,000 hadi 90,000 kufikia Novemba 2016.

Imetolewa takwimu ya food inflation kuwa ni 6% kwa mwezi October, na hii si kazi ngumu kudadavua. Gunia la mahindi lilikuwa 65,000 - 85,000 maka jana November na sababu ni msimu.

Na umepewa orodha ya bidhaa zinazotumika. Sasa tatizo lako ni lipi? Si useme tu ndugu Mchambuzi ana reality ambayo ipo flawed? If not, si aseme amezipata wapi hizo takwimu? Au alifanyaje huo uchunguzi kuliko kutumia "strong feelings"?

Nadhani wote nyie ni wamoja. It's a shame.

 

[Mchambuzi]

Hizo ni siasa tu bruh,

Bei ya unga wa mahindi October 2015 na bei ya unga wa mahindi October 2016 ni ilieile na range yake ni 1100shs - 1300shs. Mwezi December unga hupanda Bei mpaka Mwezi February na roughly huhitaji 30,000 tonnes ku-absorb shock, mwaka huu nadhani may be 40,000 tonnes kutoka NFRA.


Pia inflation ya vyakula inajumuisha mazao 15 nayo ni

• mahindi,
• mtama,
• ufuta,
• viazi mbatata,
• viazi vitamu,
• ngano,
• mihogo,
• nyama ya kuku,
• mbuzi na n'gombe,
• samaki,
• mafuta ya kupikia,
• embe (kipimo cha matunda mengine kutegemea na msimu).
• mchele,
• maharage,
• ndizi za kupikia

Sasa Ronal Reagan kwanini umuamini mtu kama huyu? Why can't you sit down and think a little bit that these guys are politically motivated to demean and disrespect anybody that brings stats which are differing from their reality?

I'm challenging any of you guys to go to Kariakoo or Temeke stereo market and get the prices on the food basket items that are listed above, for October, November and December this year. It's only 15 items that makes 80% of rural calorie intake and 67% of Dar es salaam calories intake.

Ongezeni na non-alcoholic beverages kama vile juisi za ukwaju etc... Muulize na mwaka jana ilikuwa shillins ngapi? It took my niece 3hours to do it for December (got both last year and this year) and I paid him 100,000/- shs.

Iam willing to pay 200,000?- shs for this to anybody. Find an intern at your office or we can go through Jamiiforums (cc. Maxence Melo ) and find someone who can take this gig.

Don't just sit on your butt and waste your youth on things that will not lead us nowhere, let's do this and calculate food Inflation based on our own data. Then we can challenge the available data.

Then, later on you can start your statement by statistics, that's how people who wanna make a point start their conversation ....

" It will go like .... According to survey done by Jamiiforum member X, we have determined that the food and non-alcoholic inflation on a monthly basis from Nov16 to Dec16 was >>>"

You can't just say things in a lazy way, sometimes these things are just easy to do.

Kobello,
Unachofanya ni aibu tupu. Ni juzi tu hapa Ronal Reagan alipojiunga na mjadala ulimkaribisha kwa kejeli kwamba amerukia treni kwa mbele. Lakini ajabu leo umeona hoja zake ni uhimu sana kiasi kwamba kwa ujira wako as a demagogue umesahau haya yote na kuanza kumlamba miguu na kutafuta sympathy aungane nawe katika hoja. Hapa hoja inashindanishwa kwa hoja, sio viroja kama unavyoleta humu. Yapo maeneo ambayo if you are objective yataungwa mkono lakini sio kwa kulia kulia kutafuta support. What a shame. Wahenga walisema “Chema Chajiuza, Kibaya Chajitembeza.”

Sijui ni kitu gani kinakufanya ujiamini kwamba umejibu hoja. Nikuulize, hivi hiyo stock iliyoongezeka NFRA imetokea wapi/imezalisha wapi na lini? Unakumbuka Bwana Mkubwa majuzi tu alilazimika kukimbilia magerezani kuwasema wafungwa kwamba wanakula sana, wanakula bure na wanamaliza food reserve ya taifa, hivyo waanze kujitegemea kwa kilimo cja chakula? Ni wafungwa wangapi wanaendelea kuaachiwa ili kupunguza matumbo yanayotegemea NFRA magerezani? Mambo ya ajabu sana yanaendelea nchini.

Kobello, mienendo yako katika mijadala humu shows jinsi gani you lack intellectual humility. You are intellectually arrogant and you are victimized by your own bias and prejudices. On inflation, you claim to know more than what you actually know. Kwanini usikubali ukweli kwamba kimsingi lipo tatizo, kwani huo ndio ukweli, ili tuendelee na mijadala yenye kujenga na pengine kubadilisha hali iliyopo? Why are you playing zero sum games katika masuala yanayogusa maisha ya maskini?

My point of departure was very simple. Takwimu zinazotolewa na BOT, kwa mfano hizi za inflation mimi sioni kama zinaendana na uhalisia uliopo. Takwimu hizi zinaacha maswali mengi kuliko kutoa majibu. Nikatoa mfano mdogo tu wa Sembe kwa sababu hii ni Staple Food nchini as it is consumed as the main source of calories by millions of Tanzanians every day more than any other type of food. Kuna kila sababu ya kuamini kwamba aidha data hizi zinapikwa au tatizo ni the limitation in the official methodology used by the government to compute inflation. As an intellectual I expected ungejadili hayo, lakini badala yake ni kam kawaida, kwa vile umeshapigwa ufunguo , ukakimbilia orodha ya matunda kama madalanzi, makomamanga, ubuyu na kuleta comparative analysis baina ya Tandale dhidi ya Kariakoo. Tatizo ni kwamba huko Lumumba Mnakaririshwa na kuaminishwa kwamba the existing methodologies is the absolute truth. Whoever questions them become an enemy and you are ready to denigrate him/her by harping on their personalities.

I still maintain kwamba - somewhere, something doesn’t add up. Na huu ni wajibu wetu kuhoji. As intellectuals, we are supposed to articulate hopes and fears in the society. We are supposed to warn the less informed about the impending dangers and parade them into action. We are supposed to help the society give meaning to and read meaning into what may look as obvious and routine. Whereas you politicians (demagogues and ideologues) pretend to think for the society, as intellectuals we have a duty to help the society thinks for itself.

Nimalizie kwa kukueleza kwanini naendeleo kuamini kwamba hizi methodology mlizokaririshwa zinaficha ukweli kuhusu food inflation:

1. CPI basket weigh zimepitwa na wakati/outdated. Incase haujui, kila price index ina virutubisho viwili: Prices and Weights. Weights zinahitajika to compute a weighted average of price changes in an economy. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti moja ya ILO, wananchi wengi barani Afrika wanaishi katika nchi ambazo Consumer Price Index (CPI basket) ni za miaka ya zamani, zaidi ya kumi. As intellectuals, we have to be concerned!

2. Tatizo lingine ni kwamba hizi weights and prices zinaegemea zaidi Urban areas kuliko peri-urban and rural areas. NBS inakusanya zaidi prices mijini na pia ina base basket weights on urban consumption patterns. Hili ni tatizo, hasa iwapo urban inflation inakosa rural inflation traction. Food prices in some rural and peri urban areas huwa zipo juu due to limited competition and higher input costs, transportation in particular. Methodology mnazokaririshwa kwamba ni absolute truth hazizingatii hilo.

3. Methodology mnazokaririshwa don’t reflect buying/consumption patterns of consumers of the poorr. Umetaja taja mazao kadhaa lakini ukweli unabakia kwamba the existing methodology doesn’t take into account of the fact kwamba there are multiple/different prices which you can buy for example a loaf of bread.

4. The CPIs zinazotumiwa na serikali ni ‘plutocratic’, kwa sababu they weigh households in proportion to their total consumption. For instance a household spending TZS 2,000,000 kwa mwezi gets 10 times the weight of a household spending just TZS 100,000 kwa mwezi. Na hii ni by ‘design’ rather than ‘defualt’. Nadhani unajua kwamba data nyingi underlying the CPI zinakuwa collected at points of sale (madukani) na sio kwenye level ya household. Kwahiyo sio kwamba households wanapata the same weight. Matokeo yake ni kwamba hizi CPI weights zinawakilisha zaidi households of higher percentiles of the expenditure distribution, ambao kwa kawaida wapo way over the poverty line, na kuacha the 70% of the population underrepresented.

In the final analysis:

· Tunahitaji kuwa waangalifu tunapotumia hizi CPI kama a cost of living deflator for the poor in Tanzania. Zinaficha ukweli mwingi sana.

· Kama taifa, tuna haja ya kujipanga vizuri, hasa kiutafiti ili tupate more effective ways of collecting price data zinazowakilisha kada mbalimbali katika jamii, na hasa kuondokana na urban bias.

Ondokana na ulimbukeni wa kung'ang'ania tu mambo ya kijinga ya serikali kwa sababu tu unalipwa kwa kufanya hivyo na pia kuishi kwa mazoea kwa sababu tu umelelewa ndani ya makunyanzi ya CCM.

 

[Kobello]

Kobello,
Unachofanya ni aibu tupu. Ni juzi tu hapa Ronal Reagan alipojiunga na mjadala ulimkaribisha kwa kejeli kwamba amerukia treni kwa mbele. Lakini ajabu leo umeona hoja zake ni uhimu sana kiasi kwamba kwa ujira wako as a demagogue umesahau haya yote na kuanza kumlamba miguu na kutafuta sympathy aungane nawe katika hoja. Hapa hoja inashindanishwa kwa hoja, sio viroja kama unavyoleta humu. Yapo maeneo ambayo if you are objective yataungwa mkono lakini sio kwa kulia kulia kutafuta support. What a shame. Wahenga walisema “Chema Chajiuza, Kibaya Chajitembeza.”

Sijui ni kitu gani kinakufanya ujiamini kwamba umejibu hoja. Nikuulize, hivi hiyo stock iliyoongezeka NFRA imetokea wapi/imezalisha wapi na lini? Unakumbuka Bwana Mkubwa majuzi tu alilazimika kukimbilia magerezani kuwasema wafungwa kwamba wanakula sana, wanakula bure na wanamaliza food reserve ya taifa, hivyo waanze kujitegemea kwa kilimo cja chakula? Ni wafungwa wangapi wanaendelea kuaachiwa ili kupunguza matumbo yanayotegemea NFRA magerezani? Mambo ya ajabu sana yanaendelea nchini.

Kobello, mienendo yako katika mijadala humu shows jinsi gani you lack intellectual humility. You are intellectually arrogant and you are victimized by your own bias and prejudices. On inflation, you claim to know more than what you actually know. Kwanini usikubali ukweli kwamba kimsingi lipo tatizo, kwani huo ndio ukweli, ili tuendelee na mijadala yenye kujenga na pengine kubadilisha hali iliyopo? Why are you playing zero sum games katika masuala yanayogusa maisha ya maskini?

My point of departure was very simple. Takwimu zinazotolewa na BOT, kwa mfano hizi za inflation mimi sioni kama zinaendana na uhalisia uliopo. Takwimu hizi zinaacha maswali mengi kuliko kutoa majibu. Nikatoa mfano mdogo tu wa Sembe kwa sababu hii ni Staple Food nchini as it is consumed as the main source of calories by millions of Tanzanians every day more than any other type of food. Kuna kila sababu ya kuamini kwamba aidha data hizi zinapikwa au tatizo ni the limitation in the official methodology used by the government to compute inflation. As an intellectual I expected ungejadili hayo, lakini badala yake ni kam kawaida, kwa vile umeshapigwa ufunguo , ukakimbilia orodha ya matunda kama madalanzi, makomamanga, ubuyu na kuleta comparative analysis baina ya Tandale dhidi ya Kariakoo. Tatizo ni kwamba huko Lumumba Mnakaririshwa na kuaminishwa kwamba the existing methodologies is the absolute truth. Whoever questions them become an enemy and you are ready to denigrate him/her by harping on their personalities.

I still maintain kwamba - somewhere, something doesn’t add up. Na huu ni wajibu wetu kuhoji. As intellectuals, we are supposed to articulate hopes and fears in the society. We are supposed to warn the less informed about the impending dangers and parade them into action. We are supposed to help the society give meaning to and read meaning into what may look as obvious and routine. Whereas you politicians (demagogues and ideologues) pretend to think for the society, as intellectuals we have a duty to help the society thinks for itself.

Nimalizie kwa kukueleza kwanini naendeleo kuamini kwamba hizi methodology mlizokaririshwa zinaficha ukweli kuhusu food inflation:

1. CPI basket weigh zimepitwa na wakati/outdated. Incase haujui, kila price index ina virutubisho viwili: Prices and Weights. Weights zinahitajika to compute a weighted average of price changes in an economy. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti moja ya ILO, wananchi wengi barani Afrika wanaishi katika nchi ambazo Consumer Price Index (CPI basket) ni za miaka ya zamani, zaidi ya kumi. As intellectuals, we have to be concerned!

2. Tatizo lingine ni kwamba hizi weights and prices zinaegemea zaidi Urban areas kuliko peri-urban and rural areas. NBS inakusanya zaidi prices mijini na pia ina base basket weights on urban consumption patterns. Hili ni tatizo, hasa iwapo urban inflation inakosa rural inflation traction. Food prices in some rural and peri urban areas huwa zipo juu due to limited competition and higher input costs, transportation in particular. Methodology mnazokaririshwa kwamba ni absolute truth hazizingatii hilo.

3. Methodology mnazokaririshwa don’t reflect buying/consumption patterns of consumers of the poorr. Umetaja taja mazao kadhaa lakini ukweli unabakia kwamba the existing methodology doesn’t take into account of the fact kwamba there are multiple/different prices which you can buy for example a loaf of bread.

4. The CPIs zinazotumiwa na serikali ni ‘plutocratic’, kwa sababu they weigh households in proportion to their total consumption. For instance a household spending TZS 2,000,000 kwa mwezi gets 10 times the weight of a household spending just TZS 100,000 kwa mwezi. Na hii ni by ‘design’ rather than ‘defualt’. Nadhani unajua kwamba data nyingi underlying the CPI zinakuwa collected at points of sale (madukani) na sio kwenye level ya household. Kwahiyo sio kwamba households wanapata the same weight. Matokeo yake ni kwamba hizi CPI weights zinawakilisha zaidi households of higher percentiles of the expenditure distribution, ambao kwa kawaida wapo way over the poverty line, na kuacha the 70% of the population underrepresented.

In the final analysis:

· Tunahitaji kuwa waangalifu tunapotumia hizi CPI kama a cost of living deflator for the poor in Tanzania. Zinaficha ukweli mwingi sana.

· Kama taifa, tuna haja ya kujipanga vizuri, hasa kiutafiti ili tupate more effective ways of collecting price data zinazowakilisha kada mbalimbali katika jamii, na hasa kuondokana na urban bias.

Ondokana na ulimbukeni wa kung'ang'ania tu mambo ya kijinga ya serikali kwa sababu tu unalipwa kwa kufanya hivyo na pia kuishi kwa mazoea kwa sababu tu umelelewa ndani ya makunyanzi ya CCM.

You are actually talking about yourself.

Why the hell will I need sympathy from anybody? Ni hoja gani ya Ronal Reagan niliyoona ina umuhimu? We vipi?

CPI is mainly measured in Urban Populations, as far as I know. A typical consumer ni urban dweller. Bei ya mchele huko Kisele ni ndogo kuliko Temeke Stereo na bei ya mafuta ya kupikia kisele ni kubwa kuliko Kariakoo. All in all your reasons are flimsy since CPI is mainly an Urban Index.

Tuache hayo, sidhani kama una point ya maana kwenye hilo. Umesema mfuko wa sembe wa kilo tano ulikuwa 16,000 nyakati hizi 2015 meaning that ni shilingi 3200 kwa kilo ya sembe. Na sasa hivi ni 30,000 yaani ni 6400 shs kwa kilo moja.

What kind of reality are you living in? I want you to say that you are sticking to that statement and I promise you I will leave you alone for life, uendelee na jaribio lenu la kumpachika Laigwanan 2020.

Unanikumbusha "Masaibu ya Ndugu Jero"

 

[Mchambuzi]

CPI is mainly measured in Urban Populations, as far as I know. A typical consumer ni urban dweller. Bei ya mchele huko Kisele ni ndogo kuliko Temeke Stereo na bei ya mafuta ya kupikia kisele ni kubwa kuliko Kariakoo. All in all your reasons are flimsy since CPI is mainly an Urban Index.

If you had angalau chembe chembe za intellectual humility, suala hili lingepelekea mjadala wenye afya sana. Lakini kwa vile you are intellectually arrogant, you wont be able to see an independent merit on an opponent. Nilishajadili mapungufu ya hizi CPI index in the context of urban setting, na badala ya kujibu intellectually, unazidi kuhalalisha kasoro hizo. Hivi ni vituko kwa kweli.

Eti a typical consumer is an urbanite, haya ndio nayokueleza tena na tena kwamba mnakaririshwa. Mimi kwetu ni Rungwe, kijiji cha mabonde, mbona unga, mchele, maharage nk tunanunua na hatupo mjini? Ni watanzania wangapi wanaoishi maisha ya kijiji cha mabonde? Ni wengi kuliko urbanites. Nikakueleza pia kwamba food prices in some rural and peri urban areas huwa zipo juu due to limited competition and higher input costs, transportation in particular. Lakini kwa vile mnaishi kwa kukaririshwa kwamba the existing methodologies ndio absolute truth, hautakaa uelewe mambo ya muhimu na ya msingi katika hili.

Tuache hayo, sidhani kama una point ya maana kwenye hilo. Umesema mfuko wa sembe wa kilo tano ulikuwa 16,000 nyakati hizi 2015 meaning that ni shilingi 3200 kwa kilo ya sembe. Na sasa hivi ni 30,000 yaani ni 6400 shs kwa kilo moja. What kind of reality are you living in? .

Hivi kweli umefanya utafiti kujua tofauti ya bei ya unga wa sembe kwa vipindi tajwa? Kukaririshwa kunakuchanganya sana kiasi cha kuja na extrapolation zisizokuwa na miguu wala kichwa. Akili zimedumazwa kwa kukariri mambo kiasi cha kubishana hata na ukweli.

I want you to say that you are sticking to that statement and I promise you I will leave you alone for life, uendelee na jaribio lenu la kumpachika Laigwanan 2020.

Unanikumbusha "Masaibu ya Ndugu Jero"

Naona unatafuta pa kukimbilia, typical of demagogues. Tayari umeshaacha hoja zangu nyingi sana za msingi, na zile unazojaribu rukia, you are hardly coherent and consistent. Typical of demagogues.

Hatujasahau kwamba Kobello jana alikuwa ni wa 'Kikwete Safi', Kobello leo ni wa 'Magufuli Safi', hayo ndio mambo mliyokaririshwa kama Misukule pale Lumumba. So sad. Ulaghai wenu wa miaka 50 ya uhuru is coming to an end, na kwa vile unaishi kama Msukule tu humu, utabadilika kama wenzako akina 'mwanadiwani' wa jakaya kugeuka kuwa 'msemajiukweli' wa Magufuli, typical of demagogues.

 

[Kobello]

Hivi kweli umefanya utafiti kujua tofauti ya bei ya unga wa sembe kwa vipindi tajwa? Kukaririshwa kunakuchanganya sana kiasi cha kuja na extrapolation zisizokuwa na miguu wala kichwa. Akili zimedumazwa kwa kukariri mambo kiasi cha kubishana hata na ukweli.

Maneno mengi yasiyo na maana.

Ni kweli CPI inakokotolewa kwa kutumia Urban Consumers. Lakini tuliache hili, tusiende nje ya mada kwa sababu theres nothing you can tell me here kaa na unavyojua.

Ndiyo nimefanya utafiti na bei ya sembe kwa Dar ni 1500/- at this time in 2015 na 2016. (Actually range ni 1100 - 1500 kwa 2015 na 1200 -1600 kwa 2016).
For your information, hata 2012 sembe December ilifika mpaka 1500/-

Hakuna 100% increase ya bei ya mahindi kama unavyotaka kupika maneno. December mwaka jana ilikuwa mpaka 1500 kwa kilo hadi late January serikali ilipostimulate soko kwa kuachia mahindi toka ghalani.

SASA NAKUULIZA FOR THE LAST TIME HIZO KILO 5 KWA 30,000/- NI WAPI?

Usiyeyushe!

 

[Mchambuzi]

Maneno mengi yasiyo na maana.

Ni kweli CPI inakokotolewa kwa kutumia Urban Consumers. Lakini tuliache hili, tusiende nje ya mada kwa sababu theres nothing you can tell me here kaa na unavyojua.

Ndiyo nimefanya utafiti na bei ya sembe kwa Dar ni 1500/- at this time in 2015 na 2016. (Actually range ni 1100 - 1500 kwa 2015 na 1200 -1600 kwa 2016).
For your information, hata 2012 sembe December ilifika mpaka 1500/-

Hakuna 100% increase ya bei ya mahindi kama unavyotaka kupika maneno. December mwaka jana ilikuwa mpaka 1500 kwa kilo hadi late January serikali ilipostimulate soko kwa kuachia mahindi toka ghalani.

SASA NAKUULIZA FOR THE LAST TIME HIZO KILO 5 KWA 30,000/- NI WAPI?

Usiyeyushe!

Kwanza nikueleze kwamba kiloba ni kilo 25,sio tano, it's just a typo. Pili you are revealing not only your arrogance but also ignorance. Here's why:

Kiloba cha kg 25 mwaka Jana was around tzs 16,500 at wholesale. This translated to around tzs 660 per kilo. This time around Kiloba hicho ni tzs 30,000 at wholesale price, which is equivalent to around tzs 1,200. Hoja haikuwa increase by 100%, I meant "twice" the amount. Nikuulize je hili ni ongezeko la asilimia ngapi? Unajua retail level Kati ya mwaka Jana na mwaka huu ongezeko ni kiasi gani?

Kwa jinsi ulivyokuwa mtupu kichwani, juzi ukasema eti tofauti ya tzs 300 is nothing, hivi unakujaga timamu kichwani kweli kujadili mambo muhimu kama haya? Do you know ongezeko la tzs 300 hapo ni what pctge? It's 25%!!! Unajua anything about food poverty line? Wangapi wanaishi below?

The 25% sio kitu cha kubeza. Kama unalipa kodi leo $1000 kwa mwezi then after 12 months inakuwa $1250, ni kidogo hiyo? Akili za msukule ni za kitumwa sana kwa kweli, wewe ni wa kuonewa huruma na kuombewa sana.

Kukwepa Mjadala on limitations of the CPI methodologies ni sahihi kwani you don't have that intellectual capacity.

 

[Kobello]

Kwanza nikueleze kwamba kiloba ni kilo 25,sio tano, it's just a typo. Pili you are revealing not only your arrogance but also ignorance. Here's why:

Kiloba cha kg 25 mwaka Jana was around tzs 16,500 at wholesale. This translated to around tzs 660 per kilo. This time around Kiloba hicho ni tzs 30,000 at wholesale price, which is equivalent to around tzs 1,200. Hoja haikuwa increase by 100%, I meant "twice" the amount. Nikuulize je hili ni ongezeko la asilimia ngapi? Unajua retail level Kati ya mwaka Jana na mwaka huu ongezeko ni kiasi gani?

Kwa jinsi ulivyokuwa mtupu kichwani, juzi ukasema eti tofauti ya tzs 300 is nothing, hivi unakujaga timamu kichwani kweli kujadili mambo muhimu kama haya? Do you know ongezeko la tzs 300 hapo ni what pctge? It's 25%!!! Unajua anything about food poverty line? Wangapi wanaishi below?

The 25% sio kitu cha kubeza. Kama unalipa kodi leo $1000 kwa mwezi then after 12 months inakuwa $1250, ni kidogo hiyo? Akili za msukule ni za kitumwa sana kwa kweli, wewe ni wa kuonewa huruma na kuombewa sana.

Kukwepa Mjadala on limitations of the CPI methodologies ni sahihi kwani you don't have that intellectual capacity.

Kwanza kabisa hamna mahali ulipozungumzia kiroba wala neno "kiroba" at least ningekupa the benefit of doubt. Umesema mfuko wa sembe wa kilo tano na nime quote ulivyosema.

Inaonyesha jinsi ulivyo mjeuri eti ni fkn typo wakati nimekuchallenge on that three days ago, leo umeona huna pa kukimbilia.

Pili, mwaka jana November na December mpaka January bei ilikuwa 1,100 mpaka 1500 kwa kilo kama ilivyo kipindi hikihiki mwaka huu. Hata mwaka 2012 ambapo akiba ya chakula inafanana na akiba ya chakula 2016 (kuonyesha kuwa watu binafsi wananunua Zaidi kwa sababu bei zao ni nzuri kutokana na uhaba wa mvua) Bei ya unga wa sembe ilkuwa the same, 1100 - 1500 kwa kilo.

So on a yearly basis, wakisema inflation ya mahindi ni 10% hawatakuwa wamepika kwa sababu hivi vitu siyo vigumu kubaini kama unavyotaka kutuaminisha. Hakuna cha twice wala 100% inflation. Hiyo ni agricultural product na inflation yake hasa kwenye nchi zetu ni seasonal kwa hiyo tunaangalia on an annual basis.

Halafu, si uweke hiyo post niliyosema 25% ni kidogo. Si uiweke humu? It's easy to do that too! Weka hiyo post watu waione, niliposema 25% ni kidogo.

Wewe ni propaganda machine na unatumika vibaya. You should be ashamed of yourself kwani umetumia angle mbaya sana kitu ambacho hata hiyo kambi unayoitumikia ni weupe mno na hawajui nini cha kufanya. They lack both solution and mandate.

Mpo kama mmemwagiwa maji ya baridi. We can see that!

 

[Mchambuzi]

You are actually talking about yourself.

Why the hell will I need sympathy from anybody? Ni hoja gani ya Ronal Reagan niliyoona ina umuhimu? We vipi?

CPI is mainly measured in Urban Populations, as far as I know. A typical consumer ni urban dweller. Bei ya mchele huko Kisele ni ndogo kuliko Temeke Stereo na bei ya mafuta ya kupikia kisele ni kubwa kuliko Kariakoo. All in all your reasons are flimsy since CPI is mainly an Urban Index.

Tuache hayo, sidhani kama una point ya maana kwenye hilo. Umesema mfuko wa sembe wa kilo tano ulikuwa 16,000 nyakati hizi 2015 meaning that ni shilingi 3200 kwa kilo ya sembe. Na sasa hivi ni 30,000 yaani ni 6400 shs kwa kilo moja.

What kind of reality are you living in? I want you to say that you are sticking to that statement and I promise you I will leave you alone for life, uendelee na jaribio lenu la kumpachika Laigwanan 2020.

Unanikumbusha "Masaibu ya Ndugu Jero"

Kobello,

Unajichanganya tu na kutafuta uchochoro wa kuhalalisha posho za Lumumba kwa kuparamia threads humu na kuzivuruga. Typos zisikupe uchochoro wa kukwepa hoja kwani hoja ipo pale pale i.e increase from 16,500/- to 30,000/- kati ya mwishoni mwa mwaka 2015 na nyakati hizi kwa Kiroba/Kiloba/Mfuko wa sembe wa Kgs 5 (sio kgs 25), haibadili ukweli ambao upo pale pale.

Kwanza kabisa hamna mahali ulipozungumzia kiroba wala neno "kiroba" at least ningekupa the benefit of doubt. Umesema mfuko wa sembe wa kilo tano na nime quote ulivyosema.

Inaonyesha jinsi ulivyo mjeuri eti ni fkn typo wakati nimekuchallenge on that three days ago, leo umeona huna pa kukimbilia.

Pili, mwaka jana November na December mpaka January bei ilikuwa 1,100 mpaka 1500 kwa kilo kama ilivyo kipindi hikihiki mwaka huu. Hata mwaka 2012 ambapo akiba ya chakula inafanana na akiba ya chakula 2016 (kuonyesha kuwa watu binafsi wananunua Zaidi kwa sababu bei zao ni nzuri kutokana na uhaba wa mvua) Bei ya unga wa sembe ilkuwa the same, 1100 - 1500 kwa kilo.

So on a yearly basis, wakisema inflation ya mahindi ni 10% hawatakuwa wamepika kwa sababu hivi vitu siyo vigumu kubaini kama unavyotaka kutuaminisha. Hakuna cha twice wala 100% inflation. Hiyo ni agricultural product na inflation yake hasa kwenye nchi zetu ni seasonal kwa hiyo tunaangalia on an annual basis.

Halafu, si uweke hiyo post niliyosema 25% ni kidogo. Si uiweke humu? It's easy to do that too! Weka hiyo post watu waione, niliposema 25% ni kidogo.

Wewe ni propaganda machine na unatumika vibaya. You should be ashamed of yourself kwani umetumia angle mbaya sana kitu ambacho hata hiyo kambi unayoitumikia ni weupe mno na hawajui nini cha kufanya. They lack both solution and mandate.

Mpo kama mmemwagiwa maji ya baridi. We can see that!

Kobello,

Unajichanganya tu na kutafuta uchochoro wa kuhalalisha posho za Lumumba kwa kuparamia threads humu na kuzivuruga. Typos zisikupe uchochoro wa kukwepa hoja kwani hoja ipo pale pale i.e increase from 16,500/- to 30,000/- (wholesale prices) kati ya mwishoni mwa mwaka 2015 na nyakati hizi kwa Kiroba/Kiloba/Mfuko wa sembe wa Kgs 5 (sio kgs 25). Kwa bei ya kilo (on wholesale level) hili ni ongezeko la TZS takriban 660/- to around 1200/- ndani ya mwaka mmoja tu, sawa na 45% in just 12 months, suala ambalo unajitahidi sana kulikwepa huku ukija na takwimu za kufinyanga finyanga kuonyesha watu kwamba mambo yote ni shwari na kwamba wanao hoji haya ni propaganda machine. Its typical of demagogues and ideologues of which i correctly identified you with, earlier.

As i mentioned, you are both arrogant and ignorant intellectually. What i presented is pure common sense, and if you were rational in your analysis, tungekuwa na mjadala wenye afya sana unaoangalia mapungufu ya existing CPI methodologies, pengine na kupata nafasi kwenda kuwasaidia Lumumba warekebishe mambo kwa manufaa ya taifa. Badala yake unachofanya ni kuja kukingia kifua mapungufu yaliyopo na kuaminisha umma kwamba what exists is the 'absolute truth', and anybody questioning or challenging ni adui wa taifa. In the process, unaondoa watu katika hoja ya msingi kwa kudonoa hapa, kutema pale, typical of a demagogue huku ukiwa makini sana kuangalia count down ya ufunguo uliopigwa Lumumba usizime kabla haujajihalalishia money transfer kulipia kazi yake ya msukule.

If you were rational in your analysis ungekubali kwamba:

1. Kuna mapungufu in the CPI methodologies na kupelekea taarifa juu ya inflation kuwa biased, huku wananchi walio wengi wakiumia.

2. Kwamba kuna tatizo kubwa katika mfumo wa kuhakikisha kwamba taifa lina 'food security' badala ya kudanganya wananchi kwamba all is fine. Nadhani umesikia kwamba food stock iliyopo inaweza kulisha taifa kwa siku nane tu incase of emergency). Pia nadhani umesikia huko Manyara wananchi hawana chakula na wameanza barter trade ambapo mbuzi mmoja anabadilishwa kwa debe moja la mahindi. Na maskini hawa baada ya kupata debe la mahindi bado inawawia vigumu kupata hela ya kwenda kusaga mahindi kupata sembe kwa ajili ya ugali kwa sababu hakuna mzunguko wa hela kuwapatia pesa za kujikimu.

Badala yake unaleta hoja kama hizi:

Ndiyo nimefanya utafiti na bei ya sembe kwa Dar ni 1500/- at this time in 2015 na 2016. (Actually range ni 1100 - 1500 kwa 2015 na 1200 -1600 kwa 2016). For your information, hata 2012 sembe December ilifika mpaka 1500/-

Hapa ni jitiada zako za kimsukule wa Lumumba kufinyanga finyanga na kuficha vitu vingi kwa lengo la kuaminisha wale 25% wenye matatizo ya akili kwamba hali iliyopo ni ya kawaida na kwamba wanaojadili otherwise ni maadui wa taifa na ni propaganda machine. Hivi mna huruma na wananchi kweli?

Mpo kama mmemwagiwa maji ya baridi. We can see that!

Kwa mtu yeyote makini anayesoma hoja ya msingi katika mabandiko ya awali, hakuna siasa humo bali ni mjadala wa uchumi ambao unajikita katika kuangalia maendeleo ya uchumi mpana (macro) na athari zake katika uchumi wa households and firms (micro). Binafsi nimekuwa napata messages nyingi inbox kutoka kwa baadhi ya makada wenzako wa Lumumba wanaotazama mambo objectively wakisema kwamba kuna mengi sana ya msingi nimejadili na yanatakiwa kufanyiwa kazi.

Vinginevyo kuhusu kumwagiwa maji ya baridi, nitakujibu hili kisiasa muda sio mrefu, hapa sio mahala pale.

 

[Kobello]

Kobello,

Unajichanganya tu na kutafuta uchochoro wa kuhalalisha posho za Lumumba kwa kuparamia threads humu na kuzivuruga. Typos zisikupe uchochoro wa kukwepa hoja kwani hoja ipo pale pale i.e increase from 16,500/- to 30,000/- kati ya mwishoni mwa mwaka 2015 na nyakati hizi kwa Kiroba/Kiloba/Mfuko wa sembe wa Kgs 5 (sio kgs 25), haibadili ukweli ambao upo pale pale.

Kubali tu ulikosea, uliuvaa mkenge. Lengo lako ni exaggeration lakini hapo umelewa mwenyewe.

Kobello,

Unajichanganya tu na kutafuta uchochoro wa kuhalalisha posho za Lumumba kwa kuparamia threads humu na kuzivuruga. Typos zisikupe uchochoro wa kukwepa hoja kwani hoja ipo pale pale i.e increase from 16,500/- to 30,000/- (wholesale prices) kati ya mwishoni mwa mwaka 2015 na nyakati hizi kwa Kiroba/Kiloba/Mfuko wa sembe wa Kgs 5 (sio kgs 25). Kwa bei ya kilo (on wholesale level) hili ni ongezeko la TZS takriban 660/- to around 1200/- ndani ya mwaka mmoja tu, sawa na 45% in just 12 months, suala ambalo unajitahidi sana kulikwepa huku ukija na takwimu za kufinyanga finyanga kuonyesha watu kwamba mambo yote ni shwari na kwamba wanao hoji haya ni propaganda machine. Its typical of demagogues and ideologues of which i correctly identified you with, earlier.

Gunia la mahindi December 2, 2015 kutokana na Takwimu hizo.
Average minimum 60,500/- na average maximum price 67,750/-.
Bei ya juu Morogoro na Mwanza (85,000)
Bei ya chini ni Songea (47,000/-).

Kwa kuwa utasema hizi ni data za kupikwa, nakuwekea clip ya wakaazi wa Mbeya wakihojiwa kuhusu bei za vyakula



Angalia 8:17 mpaka 8:44 uone trend ya bei ya mahindi, na ufananishe takwimu za idara ya masoko na wakaazi wa Mbeya kuhusu bei ya mahindi (hiyo ilikuwa may 2016).

Pia,

Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Serikali yatangaza bei mpya ya unga Dar

Serikali yatangaza bei mpya ya unga Dar

Hiyo ni link kama unataka kuhakikisha kuwa mwaka 2013 January (actually from Dec. 2012) bei ya unga wa mahindi ilikuwa 1500/- kwa kilo. Ikapunguzwa baada ya tangazo hilo mpaka kufikia 900/-.

If you were rational in your analysis ungekubali kwamba:

1. Kuna mapungufu in the CPI methodologies na kupelekea taarifa juu ya inflation kuwa biased, huku wananchi walio wengi wakiumia.

Hakuna cha bias! Hizi takwimu zikionyesha hali mbaya huwa mnazikumbatia sana.

Na kwa kuonyesha jinsi ulivyo muongo na mbabaishaji rejea post yako #10 kwenye uzi huuhuu ambapo umejadili inflation kwa kutumia figures hizi hizi za NBS ukidai kwamba inflation inayotakiwa tuifuate ni ya vyakula (11% from jan 2015 to jan 2016).

Kwa kipindi cha February 2015-February 2016, mfumuko wa bei (kwa wastani) ulirekodiwa kuwa karibia 6%. Kwa maana nyingine, katika kipindi husika, gharama za maisha ya mtanzania zilipanda kwa takribani 6%. Kwa wastani huu, maelezo ya kawaida ni kwamba serikali inafanya kazi yake vizuri kudhibiti mfumuko wa bei ili kuwezesha wananchi waendelee kumuda maisha yao ya kila siku.


Swali linalofuatia ni je – UHALISIA UPO VIPI?


Tukichukua ripoti ya mwezi wa pili Wastani wa mfumuko wa bei kwa kipindi cha mwisho kilichoripotiwa na serikali kupitia idara ya takwimu (NBS), wastani wa mfumuko wa bei kwa kipindi cha ‘January 2015 hadi January 2016’ ni kama 6%. Kwa wastani huu wa tarakimu moja (single digit), tafsiri ya moja kwa moja kama tulivyokwisha ona ni kwamba afya ya uchumi wa nchi ni nzuri, hivyo wananchi walio wengi kuwa katika nafasi nzuri ya kuendelea kumudu gharama za maisha kama kawaida. Lakini wastani huu huwa haielezei uhalisia wote upo vipi. Tujadili hili kidogo katika sehemu inayofuata:

Tukiachana na wastani wa mfumuko wa bei kwa katika kipindi husika 6%:

· Je hali ipo vipi katika bei ya bidhaa na huduma moja moja?

· Je, tukiangalia mfumuko wa bei katika bidhaa ambazo huchukua sehemu kubwa ya mapato ya wananchi walio wengi, tunaona nini?


Kwa mujibu wa idara ya Takwimu ya Taifa (NBS), bidhaa za vyakula na vinywaji (soft drinks) zinachukua karibia asilimia 40 ya matumizi ya kipato cha wananchi walio wengi. Kwa maana hii, mfumuko wa bei kwenye bidhaa moja moja za Vyakula ndio takwimu muhimu zaidi kwa Serikali kuithibiti ili kuhakikisha kwamba gharama za maisha kwa watanzania walio wengi haziongezeki kwa kiwango cha kutisha. Kwa mujibu wa ripoti ya Mwezi February 2016, kwa kipindi cha January 2015 hadi January 2016, mfumuko wa bei za bidhaa za chakula unaonyesha kukaribia 11%.


Kwa kigezo kwamba ‘inflation’ ikidhibitiwa ndani ya tarakimu moja (single digits), wananchi walio wengi wanaweza

-Gharama za mikopo wanazokabiliana wananchi na wafanyabiashara katika juhudi zao za kujiendeleza kibiashara na pia kuchangia ujenzi wa uchumi.

-Riba pia ina ‘influence’ motisha (incentives) za watu kujiwekea akiba, na ‘akiba’ ni chanzo muhimu cha uwekezaji wa ndani (domestic savings Equals domestic investments).

-Vile vile viwango vya riba vina ‘influence’ wingi au mzunguko wa fedha mikononi mwa wananchi (rejea mjadala wa awali juu ya monetary policies).


Swali muhimu hapa ni je – Viwango vya riba nchini vimekuwa vikinufaisha vipi wananchi walio wengi?


Tukiwa bado katika mjadala juu ya jukumu la kwanza la serikali – yani Stabilization of the Macroeconomic environment (Uimarishaji/uthabiti wa Mazingira ya uchumi mpana wa nchi), tutaendelea kuangalia viashiria vingine vya afya ya uchumi mpana wa nchi.

Sasa hapo huoni kama unajimix mwenyewe???

Kuhusu hivyo vitakwimu uchwara vya Zitto kabwe eti kuna nafaka za siku nane .. hebu jiulize mwenyewe kama mwaka jana October kulikuwa na 254,000 tonnes na mpaka October 2016 kulikuwa na 90,000 tonnes. Is 90,000 one eighth (13%) ya 254,000? Ninavyojua mimi ni one third (35%).

Pili jiulize, amejuaje kuwa tani 90,000 za mahindi zinatosha siku nane? Na tani 254,000 zinatosha miezi miwili(61 days)?

Kuhusu wewe kubishana na mimi mambo ya kisiasa ...... pshht! Please mayn!

 

[Mchambuzi]

Nguruvi3,

Awali ulijadili mapungufu yaliyopo katika mpango wa maendeleo ingawa haukulenga sekta ya afya moja kwa moja. Mapungufu hayo yapo pia katika muktadha wa afya. Lakini it doesn’t come as a surprise kwani licha ya serikali ya CCM kuimba kwa miaka zaidi ya 50 kwamba maadui watatu wa maendeleo ni Umaskini, Ujinga na Maradhi, suala la Afya never featured in the ‘Big Results Now’ initiative as a direct intervention. Huu ulikuwa ujumbe tosha juu ya jinsi gani Serikali isivyokuwa serious na afya za wananchi.

Kwa mujibu wa ripoti moja ya USAID (2015), sehemu kubwa ya gharama za afya nchini huchangiwa na fedha za wananchi (out of pocket). Kwa mfano kwa mwaka 2011/12, mchango wa wananchi kutoka mifukoni ulikuwa ni 32% ya jumla ya gharama zote za uendeshaji wa sekta ya afya nchini. Wachangiaji wengine walikuwa kama ifuatavyo:

· Local Government Authorities/Mamlaka za Serikali za Mitaa 16%

· Wizara ya Afya 18%

· NGOs/donors 25%

· NHIF/Mfuko wa Bima ya Afya 2%

· Wengineo (regional authorities, mashirika ya umma, makampuni binafsi, Tacaids) 7%

Huko nyuma 2002/3, hali ilikuwa hivi:

· Wananchi (out of pocket) 41%

· Wizara ya Afya 34%

· Local Government Authorities/Mamlaka za Serikali za Mitaa 9%

· NGOs/donors 3%

· NHIF/Mfuko wa Bima ya Afya 3%

· Wengineo (regional authorities, mashirika ya umma, makampuni binafsi, Tacaids) 11%

Je hapa tunaona nini?

Mzigo wa wananchi umepungua kwa karibia 10%. Mzigo huu umehamishiwa wapi? LGAs and NGOs/Donor sectors. Pia tunaona kwamba involvement ya NHIF na Wizara ya Afya katika kipindi husika imepungua. Pamoja na mabadiliko haya, lakini bado tunaona kwamba Serikali kuu (Wizara ya Afya) bado inaendelea kufanya procurement ya madawa na bidhaa zote husika, na baadae ndio zinakuwa transferred kwenda kwanye ngazi ya halmashauri/manispaa. LGAs zinatarajiwa kutumia mapato yake ya ndani kugharamia madawa na bidhaa zote pamoja. Awali tuliona jinsi gani mapato haya yanavyoendelea kuminywa na serikali kuu.

Pia LGAs zinatakiwa kutumia - a fixed percentage of basket fund’ (transfers from central government) kwenda kwenye sekta hii ya afya. Lakini uamuzi juu ya kiasi gani kiwe allocated na such allocations zijikite katika maeneo gani ya Afya, maamuzi yote haya yanafanywa na serikali kuu, sio LGAs. Mbaya zaidi, maamuzi juu ya kiasi cha allocation mara nyingi huwa yanazingatia zaidi ‘population size’ za LGAs kuliko vigezo vingine vingi muhimu. Mapungufu haya yanachangia sana policy decisions kutokuwa informed, kama tulivyoona katika suala la CPI methodologies (hasa on food inflation).

Allocation of funds kwa LGAs inayofanywa na serikali kuu isn’t as rational. Kuna disparities kubwa sana between regions na kuna haja to reprioritize and allocate funds more rationally. Pia kuna too much donor dependence katika sekta ya Afya na hili halijabadilika kwa miaka zaidi ya 50 ya uhuru. Leo donors wakiamua kuondoka nchi itaingia katika hali mbaya sana. Vile vile we have a very fragmented health financing structure – see diagrams above.