Mbowe v Lissu: Is this the beginning of the end of a united and resilient CHADEMA? Why or why not?

[Pulchra Animo]

The current power struggle between CHADEMA’s Freeman Mbowe and Tundu Lissu is undoubtedly a significant test for the party. Infighting at the top can weaken any political organization, especially in a fragile democracy where opposition parties face external pressures as well as internal tensions. However, whether this is the beginning of the end of CHADEMA as a united and resilient party depends on several factors:

Reasons This Might Be the Beginning of the End:

1. Polarization Among Members

• As party members align themselves with either Mbowe or Lissu, the risk of factionalism increases. Such divisions can deepen if left unresolved, as seen in CUF’s split into CUF and ACT-Wazalendo.

2. Personality-Driven Politics

• Tanzanian opposition parties often rely heavily on charismatic leaders rather than robust institutions. A prolonged struggle between Mbowe and Lissu could overshadow the party’s core agenda and alienate voters who expect unity.

• If one faction feels sidelined or marginalized, it could lead to a split, similar to what happened with NCCR-Mageuzi in the 1990s.

3. Timing and External Pressures

• CHADEMA is navigating this crisis at a time when it should be capitalizing on President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s relatively more open political environment. Infighting could squander this opportunity and weaken its electoral chances in 2025.

• The ruling CCM could exploit these divisions to further destabilize CHADEMA, as it has done with other opposition parties in the past.

Reasons CHADEMA Might Survive and Even Emerge Stronger:

1. Track Record of Resilience

• CHADEMA has faced internal disputes before, including disagreements over strategy and leadership, yet it has managed to remain the leading opposition party. The Mbowe-Lissu conflict, while serious, is not necessarily insurmountable.

2. Institutional Framework

• Unlike earlier opposition parties like CUF, CHADEMA has developed stronger internal structures over the years. If the party’s mechanisms for conflict resolution are properly utilized, it could mediate the dispute before it causes irreparable damage.

• The party constitution and leadership council could play a crucial role in resolving this standoff.

3. Public Expectations

• CHADEMA supporters, who have invested in the party’s promise of change, are likely to demand unity. This external pressure could force Mbowe and Lissu to reconcile or at least find a way to work together for the party’s survival.

4. Strategic Interests of Leaders

• Both Mbowe and Lissu have much to lose if CHADEMA implodes. Their political relevance depends on the party remaining a viable opposition force.

• A compromise—perhaps through power-sharing or a clearly defined role for each leader—might emerge as a pragmatic solution to avoid mutual destruction.

5. Focus on the Bigger Picture

• If CHADEMA’s leadership can shift focus back to common goals, such as challenging CCM’s dominance and advocating for constitutional reforms, it might rally members around a shared vision, reducing the emphasis on personal rivalries.

What Will Determine CHADEMA’s Fate?

The outcome of this struggle depends on:

1. Mediation Efforts: Whether neutral voices within CHADEMA can step in to mediate between Mbowe and Lissu before the divisions become entrenched.

2. Leadership Priorities: Whether Mbowe and Lissu can set aside personal ambitions for the party’s collective good.

3. Public Pressure: How CHADEMA’s supporters react. A groundswell of discontent from the grassroots could push the leaders to resolve their differences quickly.

4. External Interference: Whether CCM or other actors exploit the infighting to destabilize the party further.

Final Analysis

While the Mbowe-Lissu rivalry poses a serious threat to CHADEMA’s unity, it is not necessarily the beginning of the end. CHADEMA has demonstrated resilience in the past and has a strong base of support. However, the party must act decisively to address this crisis. Failure to do so could indeed lead to the same fate as NCCR-Mageuzi and CUF—a weakened or splintered opposition.

The next few months will be critical in determining whether CHADEMA can maintain its status as Tanzania’s leading opposition party or succumb to the internal strife that has doomed others before it.

 

[Retired]

The current power struggle between CHADEMA’s Freeman Mbowe and Tundu Lissu is undoubtedly a significant test for the party. Infighting at the top can weaken any political organization, especially in a fragile democracy where opposition parties face external pressures as well as internal tensions. However, whether this is the beginning of the end of CHADEMA as a united and resilient party depends on several factors:

Reasons This Might Be the Beginning of the End:

1. Polarization Among Members

• As party members align themselves with either Mbowe or Lissu, the risk of factionalism increases. Such divisions can deepen if left unresolved, as seen in CUF’s split into CUF and ACT-Wazalendo.

2. Personality-Driven Politics

• Tanzanian opposition parties often rely heavily on charismatic leaders rather than robust institutions. A prolonged struggle between Mbowe and Lissu could overshadow the party’s core agenda and alienate voters who expect unity.

• If one faction feels sidelined or marginalized, it could lead to a split, similar to what happened with NCCR-Mageuzi in the 1990s.

3. Timing and External Pressures

• CHADEMA is navigating this crisis at a time when it should be capitalizing on President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s relatively more open political environment. Infighting could squander this opportunity and weaken its electoral chances in 2025.

• The ruling CCM could exploit these divisions to further destabilize CHADEMA, as it has done with other opposition parties in the past.

Reasons CHADEMA Might Survive and Even Emerge Stronger:

1. Track Record of Resilience

• CHADEMA has faced internal disputes before, including disagreements over strategy and leadership, yet it has managed to remain the leading opposition party. The Mbowe-Lissu conflict, while serious, is not necessarily insurmountable.

2. Institutional Framework

• Unlike earlier opposition parties like CUF, CHADEMA has developed stronger internal structures over the years. If the party’s mechanisms for conflict resolution are properly utilized, it could mediate the dispute before it causes irreparable damage.

• The party constitution and leadership council could play a crucial role in resolving this standoff.

3. Public Expectations

• CHADEMA supporters, who have invested in the party’s promise of change, are likely to demand unity. This external pressure could force Mbowe and Lissu to reconcile or at least find a way to work together for the party’s survival.

4. Strategic Interests of Leaders

• Both Mbowe and Lissu have much to lose if CHADEMA implodes. Their political relevance depends on the party remaining a viable opposition force.

• A compromise—perhaps through power-sharing or a clearly defined role for each leader—might emerge as a pragmatic solution to avoid mutual destruction.

5. Focus on the Bigger Picture

• If CHADEMA’s leadership can shift focus back to common goals, such as challenging CCM’s dominance and advocating for constitutional reforms, it might rally members around a shared vision, reducing the emphasis on personal rivalries.

What Will Determine CHADEMA’s Fate?

The outcome of this struggle depends on:

1. Mediation Efforts: Whether neutral voices within CHADEMA can step in to mediate between Mbowe and Lissu before the divisions become entrenched.

2. Leadership Priorities: Whether Mbowe and Lissu can set aside personal ambitions for the party’s collective good.

3. Public Pressure: How CHADEMA’s supporters react. A groundswell of discontent from the grassroots could push the leaders to resolve their differences quickly.

4. External Interference: Whether CCM or other actors exploit the infighting to destabilize the party further.

Final Analysis

While the Mbowe-Lissu rivalry poses a serious threat to CHADEMA’s unity, it is not necessarily the beginning of the end. CHADEMA has demonstrated resilience in the past and has a strong base of support. However, the party must act decisively to address this crisis. Failure to do so could indeed lead to the same fate as NCCR-Mageuzi and CUF—a weakened or splintered opposition.

The next few months will be critical in determining whether CHADEMA can maintain its status as Tanzania’s leading opposition party or succumb to the internal strife that has doomed others before it.

I have made the same finding and have written extensively on JF. Thanks for having the same observation as mine. The only difference is that you have escaped to pinpoint the cause of the infraction! @

 

[Auto-Marvelt]

For sure, the reasons behind Zitto's journey from Chadema to ACT is gonna happen once again to Lissu, he has got three options;
-to agree that, FAM is a leader until he decide to leave the position
-to start another political party (new)
-to join with Zitto to make ACT a stong opposition part

 

[cocochanel]

Drama drama

Acting B*

 

[Cecil J]

I didn 't have an idea that ACT came into existence after the 'fall' of CUF.

I have never given myself a second to believe that Tanzania is having any opposition party that operates independently and whose leaders are somehow clean and don 't two-side!

 

[Cecil J]

For sure, the reasons behind Zitto's journey from Chadema to ACT is gonna happen once again to Lissu, he has got three options;
-to agree that, FAM is a leader until he decide to leave the position
-to start another political party (new)
-to join with Zitto to make ACT a stong opposition part

I had a read on Twitter, there was this thread a self-proclaimed 'paratrooper' posted (His handle on Twitter is somebody Buyobe). He digests the 'fall' of CDM in 2009 and 2015, the involvement of the PM7 and the stuffs.

Maybe the history is about to repeat itself soon!

 

[happyxxx]

The current power struggle between CHADEMA’s Freeman Mbowe and Tundu Lissu is undoubtedly a significant test for the party. Infighting at the top can weaken any political organization, especially in a fragile democracy where opposition parties face external pressures as well as internal tensions. However, whether this is the beginning of the end of CHADEMA as a united and resilient party depends on several factors:

Reasons This Might Be the Beginning of the End:

1. Polarization Among Members

• As party members align themselves with either Mbowe or Lissu, the risk of factionalism increases. Such divisions can deepen if left unresolved, as seen in CUF’s split into CUF and ACT-Wazalendo.

2. Personality-Driven Politics

• Tanzanian opposition parties often rely heavily on charismatic leaders rather than robust institutions. A prolonged struggle between Mbowe and Lissu could overshadow the party’s core agenda and alienate voters who expect unity.

• If one faction feels sidelined or marginalized, it could lead to a split, similar to what happened with NCCR-Mageuzi in the 1990s.

3. Timing and External Pressures

• CHADEMA is navigating this crisis at a time when it should be capitalizing on President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s relatively more open political environment. Infighting could squander this opportunity and weaken its electoral chances in 2025.

• The ruling CCM could exploit these divisions to further destabilize CHADEMA, as it has done with other opposition parties in the past.

Reasons CHADEMA Might Survive and Even Emerge Stronger:

1. Track Record of Resilience

• CHADEMA has faced internal disputes before, including disagreements over strategy and leadership, yet it has managed to remain the leading opposition party. The Mbowe-Lissu conflict, while serious, is not necessarily insurmountable.

2. Institutional Framework

• Unlike earlier opposition parties like CUF, CHADEMA has developed stronger internal structures over the years. If the party’s mechanisms for conflict resolution are properly utilized, it could mediate the dispute before it causes irreparable damage.

• The party constitution and leadership council could play a crucial role in resolving this standoff.

3. Public Expectations

• CHADEMA supporters, who have invested in the party’s promise of change, are likely to demand unity. This external pressure could force Mbowe and Lissu to reconcile or at least find a way to work together for the party’s survival.

4. Strategic Interests of Leaders

• Both Mbowe and Lissu have much to lose if CHADEMA implodes. Their political relevance depends on the party remaining a viable opposition force.

• A compromise—perhaps through power-sharing or a clearly defined role for each leader—might emerge as a pragmatic solution to avoid mutual destruction.

5. Focus on the Bigger Picture

• If CHADEMA’s leadership can shift focus back to common goals, such as challenging CCM’s dominance and advocating for constitutional reforms, it might rally members around a shared vision, reducing the emphasis on personal rivalries.

What Will Determine CHADEMA’s Fate?

The outcome of this struggle depends on:

1. Mediation Efforts: Whether neutral voices within CHADEMA can step in to mediate between Mbowe and Lissu before the divisions become entrenched.

2. Leadership Priorities: Whether Mbowe and Lissu can set aside personal ambitions for the party’s collective good.

3. Public Pressure: How CHADEMA’s supporters react. A groundswell of discontent from the grassroots could push the leaders to resolve their differences quickly.

4. External Interference: Whether CCM or other actors exploit the infighting to destabilize the party further.

Final Analysis

While the Mbowe-Lissu rivalry poses a serious threat to CHADEMA’s unity, it is not necessarily the beginning of the end. CHADEMA has demonstrated resilience in the past and has a strong base of support. However, the party must act decisively to address this crisis. Failure to do so could indeed lead to the same fate as NCCR-Mageuzi and CUF—a weakened or splintered opposition.

The next few months will be critical in determining whether CHADEMA can maintain its status as Tanzania’s leading opposition party or succumb to the internal strife that has doomed others before it.

Mvutano wa madaraka uliopo kati ya Freeman Mbowe na Tundu Lissu wa CHADEMA bila shaka ni mtihani mkubwa kwa chama hicho. Migogoro ya ndani katika uongozi inaweza kudhoofisha chama chochote cha kisiasa, hasa katika demokrasia changa ambapo vyama vya upinzani hukabiliana na shinikizo za nje pamoja na migogoro ya ndani. Hata hivyo, kama huu ni mwanzo wa mwisho wa CHADEMA kama chama imara na chenye umoja, inategemea mambo kadhaa:

Sababu Zinazoweza Kuashiria Mwanzo wa Mwisho:

1. Mgawanyiko Miongoni mwa Wanachama

Wanachama wa chama wanapojipanga upande wa Mbowe au Lissu, hatari ya kuwepo makundi inakua. Mgawanyiko huo unaweza kuongezeka kama hautashughulikiwa, kama ilivyoonekana kwa mgawanyiko wa CUF kuwa CUF na ACT-Wazalendo.


2. Siasa Zenye Kutegemea Utu Badala ya Taasisi

Vyama vya upinzani vya Tanzania mara nyingi hutegemea sana viongozi wenye mvuto badala ya taasisi madhubuti. Mgogoro wa muda mrefu kati ya Mbowe na Lissu unaweza kufunika ajenda ya msingi ya chama na kuwakatisha tamaa wapiga kura wanaotegemea umoja.

Ikiwa kundi moja litahisi limebaguliwa au kuachwa kando, linaweza kusababisha mgawanyiko, kama ilivyotokea kwa NCCR-Mageuzi miaka ya 1990.


3. Wakati na Shinikizo za Nje

CHADEMA inakabiliwa na mgogoro huu wakati ambapo inapaswa kutumia fursa ya mazingira ya kisiasa yaliyo wazi zaidi chini ya Rais Samia Suluhu Hassan. Migogoro ya ndani inaweza kupoteza fursa hii na kudhoofisha nafasi zake za uchaguzi wa 2025.

CCM inaweza kutumia mgawanyiko huu kudhoofisha zaidi CHADEMA, kama ilivyofanya kwa vyama vingine vya upinzani hapo awali.


Sababu Zinazoweza Kufanya CHADEMA Kudumu na Hata Kuimarika:

1. Rekodi ya Ustahimilivu

CHADEMA imekumbwa na migogoro ya ndani hapo awali, ikiwemo mivutano ya kimkakati na uongozi, lakini bado imeendelea kuwa chama kikuu cha upinzani. Mgogoro wa Mbowe-Lissu, ingawa ni mkubwa, si lazima uwe haushughulikiki.


2. Mfumo wa Taasisi

Tofauti na vyama vya upinzani vya awali kama CUF, CHADEMA imejenga miundo madhubuti ya ndani kwa miaka. Ikiwa mifumo ya chama ya kusuluhisha migogoro itatumika ipasavyo, inaweza kutatua mgogoro huu kabla ya kuleta madhara yasiyorekebishika.

Katiba ya chama na baraza la uongozi vinaweza kuwa na jukumu muhimu katika kutatua mvutano huu.


3. Matarajio ya Umma

Wafuasi wa CHADEMA, ambao wamewekeza matumaini yao kwa chama hicho, watahitaji umoja. Shinikizo hili la nje linaweza kuwalazimisha Mbowe na Lissu kupatana au angalau kupata njia ya kufanya kazi pamoja kwa ajili ya kuendelea kwa chama.


4. Maslahi ya Kistratejia ya Viongozi

Mbowe na Lissu wote wana mengi ya kupoteza ikiwa CHADEMA itasambaratika. Umuhimu wao wa kisiasa unategemea chama kuendelea kuwa nguvu ya upinzani yenye ufanisi.

Makubaliano—labda kupitia kugawana madaraka au jukumu lililofafanuliwa wazi kwa kila kiongozi—yanaweza kuwa suluhisho la kiuhalisia ili kuepuka uharibifu wa pande zote.


5. Kuzingatia Ajenda Kuu

Ikiwa uongozi wa CHADEMA unaweza kurudi kwenye malengo ya pamoja, kama kupinga ushawishi wa CCM na kutetea mabadiliko ya katiba, inaweza kuunganisha wanachama kuzunguka maono ya pamoja, na kupunguza mkazo kwenye migogoro ya kibinafsi.


Nini Kitakachoamua Hatma ya CHADEMA?

Hatima ya mvutano huu inategemea:

1. Juhudi za Upatanishi: Kama sauti za kati ndani ya CHADEMA zinaweza kuingilia kati na kupatanisha kati ya Mbowe na Lissu kabla mgawanyiko haujazidi.


2. Vipaumbele vya Uongozi: Kama Mbowe na Lissu wanaweza kuweka kando maslahi binafsi kwa ajili ya manufaa ya pamoja ya chama.


3. Shinikizo la Umma: Jinsi wafuasi wa CHADEMA wanavyoshughulikia mgogoro huu. Shinikizo kubwa kutoka ngazi za chini linaweza kuwasukuma viongozi kusuluhisha tofauti zao haraka.


4. Mingilio ya Nje: Kama CCM au wahusika wengine watautumia mgogoro huu kudhoofisha chama zaidi.



Uchambuzi wa Mwisho

Ingawa mvutano kati ya Mbowe na Lissu unatoa tishio kubwa kwa umoja wa CHADEMA, si lazima iwe mwanzo wa mwisho. CHADEMA imeonyesha ustahimilivu hapo awali na ina wafuasi wengi waaminifu. Hata hivyo, chama lazima kichukue hatua za haraka kushughulikia mgogoro huu. Kukosa kufanya hivyo kunaweza kweli kupelekea hatma sawa na ya NCCR-Mageuzi na CUF—upinzani ulio dhaifu au uliogawanyika.

Miezi michache ijayo itakuwa muhimu kuamua kama CHADEMA itaendelea kuwa chama kikuu cha upinzani nchini Tanzania au kusalimu amri kwa migogoro ya ndani iliyowaangamiza wengine kabla yake.

 

[Smart911]

Let's wait and see... time will tell...


Cc: Mahondaw

 

[Numbisa]

Duh aiseee