Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

T14 Armata said:
Marekani hahitaji kutumia reserve kuuza mafuta hivyo hawezi ishiwa reserve. Reserve ni kwa ajili yake tu, uzalishaji kwenye rigs zake ndio hutegemea demand kwenye soko la dunia. Na bado hazalishi sana kuuza mpaka vita hii ilipoanza ndio akaanza kuongeza mauzo nje. Marekani kwa sasa ndio mzalishaji mkubwa wa mafuta duniani na anaweza toa hata mapipa milioni 15 kwa siku ila uzalishaji wake huwa ni wa gharama kubwa kuliko nchi kama Saudi Arabia ambayo mafuta yake hayatumii nguvu kuyapata wala kuyasafisha.

Ili Marekani azalishe sana anahitaji kujiandaa kwa mitambo na aingie gharama ambazo zinakuwa breakeven kwa miezi au miaka kadhaa. Hivyo ni risk kwake kuongeza uzalishaji kila bei ya mafuta inavyopanda. Yani huwezi mwambia Bakhressa ajenge kiwanda cha unga kingine kisa msimu huu mahindi yamezalishwa mara tatu yake, msimu ukiisha itakuaje atakuwa karudisha gharama za uwekezaji, au kuna demand itakuwepo baada ya huu msimu?

Na Marekani wakati mwingine anatumia fracking technology ambayo ni expensive ila anayo yeye tu ili nchi za kiherehere kama Saudi zikimbania mafuta asikome. Sasa OPEC+ kwa kawaida yao hucheza na soko la dunia, hawataki bei ya mafuta ishuke hivyo hulazimisha wazalishe kidogo kutengeneza uhitaji ili bei ipande. Wakizalisha sana wanatengeneza ziada ambayo itashusha bei. Ila kuna nchi kama Iran na Venezuela zinaweza ingia mikataba kinyume nao, na kulingana na taarifa hiyo ni kwamba Russia na Saudi tu ndio wamekubaliana labda wasubiri mkutano mwingine wa OPEC+ maana wao ndio wana kauli kubwa.

Wala India haiwezi kuwa hub leo au kesho. Viwanda hawajengi tu kisa kuna crisis mwaka mmoja, kuna uncertainties nyingi zinazingatiwa na lazima India iwe na conducive environment kuliko nchi nyingine. Mafuta ya dezo ya msimu mmoja hayawezi wafanya kina Pfizer na Moderna wakajenge factories India. Hata hii China wazungu na Wamarekani wanapenda sana wahame ila wataenda wapi? Nchi zinazokaribia ni India, Vietnam na Mexico ila hazina competent labour, usafirishaji wa uhakika na gharama nafuu (China ndio inaongoza duniani), internal market, n.k. Hapo kwa kiasi fulani China anafaidika yeye tu.

Uzalishaji wa Ulaya utapungua na hii ni crisis wanapitia ila wakitoka hapa Russia asahau kuwauzia gesi na mafuta. India na China zitaendelea kununua at discounted prices zipige hela, waliokuwa na vikwazo kama Venezuela na Iran watapewa fungulia mbwa wazalishe mafuta mengi, lobbying zitafanyika mafuta yawepo tu huwezi sumbua EU na Marekani kwenye nishati wakakosa namna ya kukuzunguka. Oil crisis ya early 1970s ilikuwa kubwa zaidi ya hii ila Marekani alivyotoka hapo alibadilisha mifumo mingi duniani.

Mambo sio mepesi ila ni magumu
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Mkuuu umemaliza hamna haja ya kusema una philosophy za kidocter uwezo unajielezaa..... WEKAAA MANENOO - hii ndio njia sahihi ya kutumia akili, synthesis of different ideas, problems to Form a coherent reasonable conclusion. Au wenzetu wanafikiri kukariri, copy n paste ndo akili?
 
[emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635]
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Reports alleged that Russia is moving to test the Poseidon nuclear torpedo drone, but the Pentagon has no information

The Pentagon currently has no information on the testing of Russia's Poseidon nuclear torpedo-drone that would change the United States' strategic posture, a senior US military official said in a US Defense Department press briefing Monday evening.

The statement came in response to reports in La Repubblica that NATO intelligence had warned allies that Russia's Belgorod nuclear submarine was in the Artic Kara Sea to possibly test the "super torpedo."

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The Times said that that the weapon could also be tested in the Black Sea, where the Russia Navy has been launching ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian positions to limited effect.

Russian state media noted the items on the Poseidon as reporting on the "fears of NATO" of the super weapon.

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Pravda reported that Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said that unfounded statements by the media only increased the "information terrorism" by the Russian Federation.

"It's a terror weapon. It's designed to kill or traumatize the inhabitants of American coastal cities."

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Ford

What is the Poseidon nuclear torpedo drone?

The Poseidon, or the Ocean Multipurpose System Status-6, is a underwater unmanned vehicle that can be launched by a submarine. According to Popular Mechanics, it can travel up to 6,200 miles at speeds of 56 knots (Just over 100 kilometers per hour).

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While described dramatically by Western media as a "weapon of the apocalypse," it is uncertain how heavy the thermonuclear payload is. Estimates have ranged from two to 100 megatons. Each megaton is 1000 kilotons — and for reference, the Fat Man nuclear bomb dropped on Nagasaki by the United States at the end of World War II was 21 kilotons.

Can the Poseidon "super" torpedo cause a "nuclear tsunami?"

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Ford claimed in 2021 that the weapon could cause a "nuclear tsunami" that would hit the American coastline, and that the resulting radiation would leave coastal cities uninhabitable for a long time.
 
green rajab said:
[emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635]View attachment 2377610
Kadyrov said that in his personal opinion, "more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law at the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons."

Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, criticized Moscow and suggested the use of low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine following Russian losses on the battlefield.

In a post on Vkontakte, a Russian version of Facebook, Kadyrov criticized Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, who he said should be demoted to a Private, and other Russian military officials for abandoning the east Ukrainian town of Lyman on Saturday.

Kadyrov said that in his personal opinion, "more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law at the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons."

A plethora of comments on the post supported Kadyrov's criticism of the military and complained of military corruption and incompetence, all while supporting Moscow's invasion of Ukraine as a whole.
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Machawa wa Putin wanazidi kumjaza upepo [emoji16]

Si wajaribu hiyo kitu Ili waone moto wake..,wataishia kuongeaongea mpaka lini Sasa.., marekani na washirika wake washaliweka wazi hili..,endapo fashisti Putin atajitoa akili katika hili atasimulia mbinguni [emoji848]

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T14 Armata said:
Wanapigwa zaidi ya wale regulars. Ubaya wa special forces huwa wanakomaa hawakubali kushindwa na hupewa kazi ngumu ndio maana casualties kwao uwa kubwa. Sasa hawa special forces wa Russia matatizo wanapata yaleyale yanayowakumba wanajeshi wa kawaida, kama ni kukosa supplies wanakosa vilevile. Uwezo wao unapungua kama hawapati kile wanachostahili kupata. Wakati wa kawaida wanatimua mbio au kuretreat hawa special forces hujitahidi kutengeneza mazingira ya regulars wakija wakute mazingira mepesi. Na hutangulizwa wao, rejea amphibious landing kwenye Omaha beach au ya Iwo Jima walivyokufa Marines wengi.

Ndio maana Marekani wale Marine Corps wana ndege zao wenyewe kama F-35B ndio ya kwao na imetengenezwa tofauti ikiwa na lift fan iweze kufanya VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) kwenye aircraft carrier. Na inaenda kuzipumzisha Harrier. Hata armmoured vehicles zao ni tofauti na za Army, bunduki vilevile. Russia ukiwatazama wao ile VDV ina special BMP nyepesi zibebeke kwenye ndege na zishushwe kwenye landing kuwasaidia special forces wakati heavy armour zilizopita ardhini zilichelewa kufika
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Watu mnajua mpaka mnakera, umeyasomea mavitu haya nini mkuu, nimekua nikikufuatilia Sana, Kama umeyasomea ada haikwenda bure aisee
 
wa kupuliza said:
Halafu wanasema eti Putin Ni mkorofi?Aisee Western na mapunga muombeeni Sana Maisha marefu Putin ili aendelee na busara zake,vichaa Kama Kaydrov wangekua Ni rais wa Russia sa hivi Ukraine ingekua inanukia Uranium iliyorutubishwa tu.
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Vichaa hata Marekani wapo. General George S. Patton aliwahi pumzishwa kazi kwa ujeuri wake na kauli tata dhidi ya Soviet Union wakati WW2 inaendelea, aliporudishwa kazini akapigana na vita ikaisha akataka eti Marekani iipige USSR muda uleule kisa italeta usumbufu baadae. Walivyoona amezidi alitembelewa na ugeni wa kijeshi akapata ajari ambayo aliumia yeye tu, akafia hospitali.

Wakorofi hawakaribishwi kwenye maamuzi ya kijeshi, hao kina Gerasimov si unaona walivyotulizana akili. Kadyrov anachonga sana kwa vile hayuko kwenye top brass ya Russian MoD, natamani siku wampe Army Group na majukumu uone atakavyokuwa kilaza kuliko majenerali wao wote. Wale Tiktok warriors wake waliishia wapi mbona alikuwa nao na hakufanikiwa. Analeta uchawa kwenye mambo ya kijeshi, mambo ambayo watu wa media kina Girkin wanafanya yeye anayaleta jeshini ndio maana anachukiwa na majenerali
 
T14 Armata said:
Marekani hahitaji kutumia reserve kuuza mafuta hivyo hawezi ishiwa reserve. Reserve ni kwa ajili yake tu, uzalishaji kwenye rigs zake ndio hutegemea demand kwenye soko la dunia. Na bado hazalishi sana kuuza mpaka vita hii ilipoanza ndio akaanza kuongeza mauzo nje. Marekani kwa sasa ndio mzalishaji mkubwa wa mafuta duniani na anaweza toa hata mapipa milioni 15 kwa siku ila uzalishaji wake huwa ni wa gharama kubwa kuliko nchi kama Saudi Arabia ambayo mafuta yake hayatumii nguvu kuyapata wala kuyasafisha.

Ili Marekani azalishe sana anahitaji kujiandaa kwa mitambo na aingie gharama ambazo zinakuwa breakeven kwa miezi au miaka kadhaa. Hivyo ni risk kwake kuongeza uzalishaji kila bei ya mafuta inavyopanda. Yani huwezi mwambia Bakhressa ajenge kiwanda cha unga kingine kisa msimu huu mahindi yamezalishwa mara tatu yake, msimu ukiisha itakuaje atakuwa karudisha gharama za uwekezaji, au kuna demand itakuwepo baada ya huu msimu?

Na Marekani wakati mwingine anatumia fracking technology ambayo ni expensive ila anayo yeye tu ili nchi za kiherehere kama Saudi zikimbania mafuta asikome. Sasa OPEC+ kwa kawaida yao hucheza na soko la dunia, hawataki bei ya mafuta ishuke hivyo hulazimisha wazalishe kidogo kutengeneza uhitaji ili bei ipande. Wakizalisha sana wanatengeneza ziada ambayo itashusha bei. Ila kuna nchi kama Iran na Venezuela zinaweza ingia mikataba kinyume nao, na kulingana na taarifa hiyo ni kwamba Russia na Saudi tu ndio wamekubaliana labda wasubiri mkutano mwingine wa OPEC+ maana wao ndio wana kauli kubwa.

Wala India haiwezi kuwa hub leo au kesho. Viwanda hawajengi tu kisa kuna crisis mwaka mmoja, kuna uncertainties nyingi zinazingatiwa na lazima India iwe na conducive environment kuliko nchi nyingine. Mafuta ya dezo ya msimu mmoja hayawezi wafanya kina Pfizer na Moderna wakajenge factories India. Hata hii China wazungu na Wamarekani wanapenda sana wahame ila wataenda wapi? Nchi zinazokaribia ni India, Vietnam na Mexico ila hazina competent labour, usafirishaji wa uhakika na gharama nafuu (China ndio inaongoza duniani), internal market, n.k. Hapo kwa kiasi fulani China anafaidika yeye tu.

Uzalishaji wa Ulaya utapungua na hii ni crisis wanapitia ila wakitoka hapa Russia asahau kuwauzia gesi na mafuta. India na China zitaendelea kununua at discounted prices zipige hela, waliokuwa na vikwazo kama Venezuela na Iran watapewa fungulia mbwa wazalishe mafuta mengi, lobbying zitafanyika mafuta yawepo tu huwezi sumbua EU na Marekani kwenye nishati wakakosa namna ya kukuzunguka. Oil crisis ya early 1970s ilikuwa kubwa zaidi ya hii ila Marekani alivyotoka hapo alibadilisha mifumo mingi duniani.

Mambo sio mepesi ila ni magumu
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Uchambuzi makini kabisa
 
What Damage Could Tests of Russia Apocalypse Poseidon Weapon Do?

BY ROBYN WHITE ON 10/4/22 AT 1:32 PM EDT

00:22



NATO has recently warned allies of Russia's plans to test the Poseidon "super torpedo", also dubbed "the weapon of the apocalypse," according to Italian newspaper La Repubblica.

The weapon is said to be able to travel large distances underwater, before exploding and causing a nuclear tsunami that could engulf coastal cities such as New York.

According to the news outlet, Russia could test the weapon soon. The nuclear-powered submarine Belgorod is reported to have left its base in the White Sea, possibly to test the torpedo in the Kara sea.

The report comes amid President Vladimir Putin's threats that Russia could use nuclear weapons if the Ukraine war escalates.

A stock photo shows a nuclear submarine. It is rumored that Russia will be testing the super torpedo Poseidon soon.RAZIHUSIN/GETTY

The development of the Poseidon torpedo came shortly after the relationship between Russia and the U.S. deteriorated. But NATO officials don't believe that such a weapon is ready for use.

Shashank Joshi, defence editor of The Economist, said on Twitter that Poseidon is a Russian nuclear-powered torpedo that can be nuclear-armed. But what was being discussed in the Italian newspaper report was a possible test of the torpedo and "NOT an explosive nuclear test."

"It is also worth noting that Poseidon is scheduled for delivery in 2027. It is not a weapon that is relevant to this war," he said.

Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said in an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in February that underwater trials of Poseidon began in December 2018. "The weapon is scheduled for delivery in 2027 and will be carried by specially configured submarines," he wrote.

What would a test entail, and what would it do? Experts spoke to Newsweek about what is likely to happen in a test and the destruction that Poseidon could inflict if it were ever used to cause a nuclear blast.

Doomsday Device

Shaun Burnie, a senior nuclear specialist at Greenpeace, told Newsweek that there are "several issues of concern" on the basis that a test of the torpedo is imminent.

"The assumption must be that the missile/drone would be unarmed [with no] nuclear warhead—otherwise it's a nuclear test at which point the consequences are determined by the bomb design and yield.

"It's reported that the yield is up to 100 megatons—hence the apocalypse reference," Burnie said, speaking of impact the torpedo could have if used with a nuclear warhead.

"One suggestion is that the weapon contains large amounts of cobalt 59 which on detonation becomes radioactive cobalt 60—the aim being to maximize the amount of radioactivity released and that it is long lasting. Such a weapon was built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War intended as a doomsday device to put as much radioactive cobalt into the upper atmosphere to be capable of making large parts of the planet uninhabitable."

Cobalt can pollute water, and have adverse effects on any surrounding living creatures.

A seismic shock or sound wave would also "impact marine life," he said.

Of greater concern in a test scenario would be the propulsion, which would be a small nuclear reactor, "possibly gas cooled," Burnie said.

"There are no details I am aware of in public as to the specifications of this reactor—it will generate power through radioactive fissioning presumably and therefore there will be radioactivity produced—it will be operating for a short period of time before impact, one assumes, therefore it will not be the equivalent to a commercial or even naval submarine reactor—but it will release radioactivity on impact assuming destruction of torpedo," Burnie said.
Dire Effect

Mark Foreman, associate professor in nuclear chemistry, industrial materials and recycling at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden, told Newsweek that, in the event of an explosion, the torpedo would have a direct, "dire effect on the marine life near it."

"I imagine that it will kill fish and marine mammals which are kilometers away from the bomb. From what I know a subsurface nuclear detonation is more damaging to the hull of ships than one which occurs above the surface of the sea," Foreman said. "I imagine that the air filled spaces in things like whales, dolphins and fish will be damaged by the underwater blast. I would expect heat and direct radiation to be less of a problem for an underwater explosion than one which occurs in the air."

Foreman said a sub-surface blast "will do more mechanical damage than one which occurs in the air."

"Subsurface nuclear detonations tend to be very dirty, the radioactivity from the fuel in the bomb along with the radioactivity generated by bombarding sea water with neutrons will be very horrible," Foreman said. "The U.S have experience of letting off atom bombs under water. When this is done it tends to generate a spray of water which is very radioactive. If this spray lands on a surface of a ship or other thing and then dries out then it tends to be very hard to remove from the ship."

Foreman said it is difficult to know just how powerful this weapon would be but he has seen some early reports suggesting it could be as powerful as Tsar bomba—the biggest nuclear bomb detonation to date. Tsar bomba was a Soviet thermonuclear aerial bomb tested in 1961.

"I have seen other reports which suggest the bomb will only be 2 megatons, this will still be a very big explosion," Foreman said.
 
Mag3 said:
Sijui Putin atakimbilia wapi...labda kwa Kim Jong Un. Je atapitia wapi?
Nafikiri atajiondoa kama alivyofanya Hitler!
Just thinking...tik tak, tik tak, tik tak!
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kinachositikisha sana kabla hajakimbia atakuwa kaua warusi wenzake kwa mamia mamia... maana kabla hajakimbia ni lazima atajaribu kutumia nuclear kujaribu kujinusuru...

Hiyo sasa itakuwa ndiyo kubariki mwisho wake !!
 
kp kipanya44 said:
Kuna wakati waliwahi kusema kwamba iwapo Crimea ingeshambuliwa basi ingekuja Ile "" judgement day ""[emoji16]


Jamaa Kwa mikwara hawajambo [emoji848]
Sent from my Infinix X660B using JamiiForums mobile app
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Jamaa alitoa mkwara kwamba yeyote atakayesaidia Ukraine atakipata ambacho hatakisahau milele"
 
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