Mkuuu umemaliza hamna haja ya kusema una philosophy za kidocter uwezo unajielezaa..... WEKAAA MANENOO - hii ndio njia sahihi ya kutumia akili, synthesis of different ideas, problems to Form a coherent reasonable conclusion. Au wenzetu wanafikiri kukariri, copy n paste ndo akili?Marekani hahitaji kutumia reserve kuuza mafuta hivyo hawezi ishiwa reserve. Reserve ni kwa ajili yake tu, uzalishaji kwenye rigs zake ndio hutegemea demand kwenye soko la dunia. Na bado hazalishi sana kuuza mpaka vita hii ilipoanza ndio akaanza kuongeza mauzo nje. Marekani kwa sasa ndio mzalishaji mkubwa wa mafuta duniani na anaweza toa hata mapipa milioni 15 kwa siku ila uzalishaji wake huwa ni wa gharama kubwa kuliko nchi kama Saudi Arabia ambayo mafuta yake hayatumii nguvu kuyapata wala kuyasafisha.
Ili Marekani azalishe sana anahitaji kujiandaa kwa mitambo na aingie gharama ambazo zinakuwa breakeven kwa miezi au miaka kadhaa. Hivyo ni risk kwake kuongeza uzalishaji kila bei ya mafuta inavyopanda. Yani huwezi mwambia Bakhressa ajenge kiwanda cha unga kingine kisa msimu huu mahindi yamezalishwa mara tatu yake, msimu ukiisha itakuaje atakuwa karudisha gharama za uwekezaji, au kuna demand itakuwepo baada ya huu msimu?
Na Marekani wakati mwingine anatumia fracking technology ambayo ni expensive ila anayo yeye tu ili nchi za kiherehere kama Saudi zikimbania mafuta asikome. Sasa OPEC+ kwa kawaida yao hucheza na soko la dunia, hawataki bei ya mafuta ishuke hivyo hulazimisha wazalishe kidogo kutengeneza uhitaji ili bei ipande. Wakizalisha sana wanatengeneza ziada ambayo itashusha bei. Ila kuna nchi kama Iran na Venezuela zinaweza ingia mikataba kinyume nao, na kulingana na taarifa hiyo ni kwamba Russia na Saudi tu ndio wamekubaliana labda wasubiri mkutano mwingine wa OPEC+ maana wao ndio wana kauli kubwa.
Wala India haiwezi kuwa hub leo au kesho. Viwanda hawajengi tu kisa kuna crisis mwaka mmoja, kuna uncertainties nyingi zinazingatiwa na lazima India iwe na conducive environment kuliko nchi nyingine. Mafuta ya dezo ya msimu mmoja hayawezi wafanya kina Pfizer na Moderna wakajenge factories India. Hata hii China wazungu na Wamarekani wanapenda sana wahame ila wataenda wapi? Nchi zinazokaribia ni India, Vietnam na Mexico ila hazina competent labour, usafirishaji wa uhakika na gharama nafuu (China ndio inaongoza duniani), internal market, n.k. Hapo kwa kiasi fulani China anafaidika yeye tu.
Uzalishaji wa Ulaya utapungua na hii ni crisis wanapitia ila wakitoka hapa Russia asahau kuwauzia gesi na mafuta. India na China zitaendelea kununua at discounted prices zipige hela, waliokuwa na vikwazo kama Venezuela na Iran watapewa fungulia mbwa wazalishe mafuta mengi, lobbying zitafanyika mafuta yawepo tu huwezi sumbua EU na Marekani kwenye nishati wakakosa namna ya kukuzunguka. Oil crisis ya early 1970s ilikuwa kubwa zaidi ya hii ila Marekani alivyotoka hapo alibadilisha mifumo mingi duniani.
Mambo sio mepesi ila ni magumu
Machawa wa Putin wanazidi kumjaza upepo [emoji16][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635][emoji635]View attachment 2377610
Kadyrov said that in his personal opinion, "more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law at the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons."
Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, criticized Moscow and suggested the use of low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine following Russian losses on the battlefield.
In a post on Vkontakte, a Russian version of Facebook, Kadyrov criticized Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, who he said should be demoted to a Private, and other Russian military officials for abandoning the east Ukrainian town of Lyman on Saturday.
Kadyrov said that in his personal opinion, "more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law at the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons."
A plethora of comments on the post supported Kadyrov's criticism of the military and complained of military corruption and incompetence, all while supporting Moscow's invasion of Ukraine as a whole.
Watu mnajua mpaka mnakera, umeyasomea mavitu haya nini mkuu, nimekua nikikufuatilia Sana, Kama umeyasomea ada haikwenda bure aiseeWanapigwa zaidi ya wale regulars. Ubaya wa special forces huwa wanakomaa hawakubali kushindwa na hupewa kazi ngumu ndio maana casualties kwao uwa kubwa. Sasa hawa special forces wa Russia matatizo wanapata yaleyale yanayowakumba wanajeshi wa kawaida, kama ni kukosa supplies wanakosa vilevile. Uwezo wao unapungua kama hawapati kile wanachostahili kupata. Wakati wa kawaida wanatimua mbio au kuretreat hawa special forces hujitahidi kutengeneza mazingira ya regulars wakija wakute mazingira mepesi. Na hutangulizwa wao, rejea amphibious landing kwenye Omaha beach au ya Iwo Jima walivyokufa Marines wengi.
Ndio maana Marekani wale Marine Corps wana ndege zao wenyewe kama F-35B ndio ya kwao na imetengenezwa tofauti ikiwa na lift fan iweze kufanya VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) kwenye aircraft carrier. Na inaenda kuzipumzisha Harrier. Hata armmoured vehicles zao ni tofauti na za Army, bunduki vilevile. Russia ukiwatazama wao ile VDV ina special BMP nyepesi zibebeke kwenye ndege na zishushwe kwenye landing kuwasaidia special forces wakati heavy armour zilizopita ardhini zilichelewa kufika
Vichaa hata Marekani wapo. General George S. Patton aliwahi pumzishwa kazi kwa ujeuri wake na kauli tata dhidi ya Soviet Union wakati WW2 inaendelea, aliporudishwa kazini akapigana na vita ikaisha akataka eti Marekani iipige USSR muda uleule kisa italeta usumbufu baadae. Walivyoona amezidi alitembelewa na ugeni wa kijeshi akapata ajari ambayo aliumia yeye tu, akafia hospitali.Halafu wanasema eti Putin Ni mkorofi?Aisee Western na mapunga muombeeni Sana Maisha marefu Putin ili aendelee na busara zake,vichaa Kama Kaydrov wangekua Ni rais wa Russia sa hivi Ukraine ingekua inanukia Uranium iliyorutubishwa tu.
Uchambuzi makini kabisaMarekani hahitaji kutumia reserve kuuza mafuta hivyo hawezi ishiwa reserve. Reserve ni kwa ajili yake tu, uzalishaji kwenye rigs zake ndio hutegemea demand kwenye soko la dunia. Na bado hazalishi sana kuuza mpaka vita hii ilipoanza ndio akaanza kuongeza mauzo nje. Marekani kwa sasa ndio mzalishaji mkubwa wa mafuta duniani na anaweza toa hata mapipa milioni 15 kwa siku ila uzalishaji wake huwa ni wa gharama kubwa kuliko nchi kama Saudi Arabia ambayo mafuta yake hayatumii nguvu kuyapata wala kuyasafisha.
Ili Marekani azalishe sana anahitaji kujiandaa kwa mitambo na aingie gharama ambazo zinakuwa breakeven kwa miezi au miaka kadhaa. Hivyo ni risk kwake kuongeza uzalishaji kila bei ya mafuta inavyopanda. Yani huwezi mwambia Bakhressa ajenge kiwanda cha unga kingine kisa msimu huu mahindi yamezalishwa mara tatu yake, msimu ukiisha itakuaje atakuwa karudisha gharama za uwekezaji, au kuna demand itakuwepo baada ya huu msimu?
Na Marekani wakati mwingine anatumia fracking technology ambayo ni expensive ila anayo yeye tu ili nchi za kiherehere kama Saudi zikimbania mafuta asikome. Sasa OPEC+ kwa kawaida yao hucheza na soko la dunia, hawataki bei ya mafuta ishuke hivyo hulazimisha wazalishe kidogo kutengeneza uhitaji ili bei ipande. Wakizalisha sana wanatengeneza ziada ambayo itashusha bei. Ila kuna nchi kama Iran na Venezuela zinaweza ingia mikataba kinyume nao, na kulingana na taarifa hiyo ni kwamba Russia na Saudi tu ndio wamekubaliana labda wasubiri mkutano mwingine wa OPEC+ maana wao ndio wana kauli kubwa.
Wala India haiwezi kuwa hub leo au kesho. Viwanda hawajengi tu kisa kuna crisis mwaka mmoja, kuna uncertainties nyingi zinazingatiwa na lazima India iwe na conducive environment kuliko nchi nyingine. Mafuta ya dezo ya msimu mmoja hayawezi wafanya kina Pfizer na Moderna wakajenge factories India. Hata hii China wazungu na Wamarekani wanapenda sana wahame ila wataenda wapi? Nchi zinazokaribia ni India, Vietnam na Mexico ila hazina competent labour, usafirishaji wa uhakika na gharama nafuu (China ndio inaongoza duniani), internal market, n.k. Hapo kwa kiasi fulani China anafaidika yeye tu.
Uzalishaji wa Ulaya utapungua na hii ni crisis wanapitia ila wakitoka hapa Russia asahau kuwauzia gesi na mafuta. India na China zitaendelea kununua at discounted prices zipige hela, waliokuwa na vikwazo kama Venezuela na Iran watapewa fungulia mbwa wazalishe mafuta mengi, lobbying zitafanyika mafuta yawepo tu huwezi sumbua EU na Marekani kwenye nishati wakakosa namna ya kukuzunguka. Oil crisis ya early 1970s ilikuwa kubwa zaidi ya hii ila Marekani alivyotoka hapo alibadilisha mifumo mingi duniani.
Mambo sio mepesi ila ni magumu
Ni interests na concentration kwenye mambo haya. Ni mkusanyiko wa maarifa ya miaka kadhaa kwenye mambo haya. Daily breadWatu mnajua mpaka mnakera, umeyasomea mavitu haya nini mkuu, nimekua nikikufuatilia Sana, Kama umeyasomea ada haikwenda bure aisee
Jamaa si kashasaini tayari.#NEW [emoji298]️[emoji635]RUSSIAN OFFICIAL - IN THE COMING DAYS, EVERYONE WILL UNDERSTAND WHY OUR ARMY WITHDREW WITHOUT EVEN FIGHTING.
watakwambia hizi ni picha feki.Njooni mbebe mait zenu
View attachment 2377050
Tofauti yao na Mandonga ni rangi tu#NEW [emoji298]️[emoji635]RUSSIAN OFFICIAL - IN THE COMING DAYS, EVERYONE WILL UNDERSTAND WHY OUR ARMY WITHDREW WITHOUT EVEN FIGHTING.
Sijui Putin atakimbilia wapi...labda kwa Kim Jong Un. Je atapitia wapi?mambio said:Mkuu achana nae huyo mag3 ni kubwa jinga.
kinachositikisha sana kabla hajakimbia atakuwa kaua warusi wenzake kwa mamia mamia... maana kabla hajakimbia ni lazima atajaribu kutumia nuclear kujaribu kujinusuru...Sijui Putin atakimbilia wapi...labda kwa Kim Jong Un. Je atapitia wapi?
Nafikiri atajiondoa kama alivyofanya Hitler!
Just thinking...tik tak, tik tak, tik tak!
Kuna wakati waliwahi kusema kwamba iwapo Crimea ingeshambuliwa basi ingekuja Ile "" judgement day ""[emoji16]Tofauti yao na Mandonga ni rangi tu
Mkuu, kama Putin alitegemea energy crisis kushinda vita mwambie amenoa... Ulaya ilikuwepo miaka mingi kabla hata yeye hajaanza kuchimba hiyo gesi na mafuta.Ulaya wanatokaje kwenye hii unayoiita 'crisis' bila energy za urusi!?
Katika mengi niloyaona kwenye bandiko lako hebu nianze kuuliza hilo.
Jamaa alitoa mkwara kwamba yeyote atakayesaidia Ukraine atakipata ambacho hatakisahau milele"Kuna wakati waliwahi kusema kwamba iwapo Crimea ingeshambuliwa basi ingekuja Ile "" judgement day ""[emoji16]
Jamaa Kwa mikwara hawajambo [emoji848]
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