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In summer, after Russian forces captured the neighboring province of Luhansk, seizing Bakhmut might have looked like a natural progression in Russia’s campaign to conquer the east — a step toward two more important cities, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. But now, analysts said, given the degradation of Russian forces and their ammunition shortages after a series of setbacks, that goal seems improbable, especially after the loss of their foothold in the northeast.
“The Russian military is still dealing with unrealistic political demands to show progress,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va. “But given poor quality of available forces and decreasing stocks of artillery ammunition, they are unlikely to be successful, because once again the Russian military appears to be feeding units piecemeal without adequate support.
Russia’s strategy in Bakhmut is reminiscent of its seizure of the eastern cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in June. There, Russian troops relied on superior artillery fire to overpower Ukrainian forces and gain ground. But the Ukrainian forces they faced then were short of both shells and Western-supplied artillery — something that is no longer as pressing, especially in Bakhmut.
“In the six months that I’ve been in Bakhmut, I have never seen our artillery working like this,” said a Ukrainian soldier in the city, referring to the volume of Ukrainian shells fired. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
Troops from other brigades have arrived in recent weeks to plug holes in the lines and shore up formations floundering after heavy casualties. But even though the numbers of Ukrainian wounded and dead are steep, the attacking Russians are suffering far worse, Ukrainian soldiers say, as their exposed assaults are cut down by artillery and machine-gun fire.