Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

[Axel Lloyd]

Hamtakatisha tamaa watu kusoma,watasoma na wataujua ukweli.Ukraine haitakuwepo katika ramani ya Dunia katika miezi miwili tu ijayo.Stay tuned.

Wenzako kina @bukyanangadi walisema mpaka November jeshi la Ukraine litakua limesagwa sagwa na warusi Leo hii November bado siku tatu iishe tuingie December...na wewe unasema miezi miwili!!!![emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
January sio mbali tutakukumbusha[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

 

[Axel Lloyd]

1. Ban inahusu mafuta yanayopita baharini na sio kwenye mabomba.

2. Urusi ana alternative market ambayo ni Asia. Tangu kuanza kwa vita India na China zimeongeza zaidi ununuaji wa mafuta kutoka urusi. Mwezi wa tatu mauzo kwenye nchi hizo mbili tu yalikuwa makubwa kuliko mauzo kwa nchi 27 za EU.

3. Help me Understand the logic behind your prediction kwamba soon US atakuwa supplier/msambazaji mkubwa wa mafuta ulaya.

• US oil priduction 12m bpd (1st in the world)
• Us oil consumption 19m bpd (1st in the world)

With such domestic deficit anapata wapi uwezo wa kuwa supplier mkubwa europe!?

4. Swala la price cap sio rahisi na sio solution nzuri ni basi tu ulaya hawana namna. A bad solution to a worse problem, thats what it is. In the end linaweza kubackfire vby kwenye global energy supply ndio maana unaona ulaya wenyewe wanatumia muda mrefu kuafikiana kulipitisha. Putin ameshasema hawatouza mafuta kwa nchi itayosapoti price cap.

Ugumu uko hapa. Wanatakiwa waweke bei ambayo itakuwa juu ya production cost lkn chini ya faida. Yaani Urusi asipate faida lkn pia asipate hasara. Akipata faida lengo halitafikiwa na akipata hasara anaweza kusitisha kbs uzalishaji na hiyo itakuwa na athari mbaya sana kwenye soko la mafuta duniani. Bei inayopendekezwa ni 65 to 70 usd/b ambayo ni karibu na bei anayouza ss hv. Nchi km Poland walipendekeza 20 usd/b[emoji16]. Pia Inaonekana Russia anaweza kuzitumia kampuni za bima za china kubypass kigingi cha ulaya.

1. Karibu 90% ya Mafuta ya Urusi ambayo yanaingia Europe yanapita baharini na si kwenye mabomba.

2.India na China hayanunui mafuta ya Urusi kwa Bei iliyopo sokoni Ila wananunua mafuta mengi Urusi sababu wanapata discount hivyo faida haiwezi kulingana na Ile aliyokua akipata Europe.
Na sasa China inapambana na COVID imerudi Kwa Kasi wachina wanaingia quarantine hivyo consumption ya Mafuta ya China inatarajiwa kushuka Sana miezi ijayo hali itakayopelekea kushuka kwa Bei ya Mafuta duniani maana China ndio mnunuzi mkubwa wa mafuta duniani.
Hili ni pigo kwa Urusi.

3.Hayo sio maneno yangu,ni kutokana na data za IEA
IEA: US challenges Russia for Europe crude oil supplier rank
Sept. 16, 2022
The US is the main contender to become Europe’s biggest supplier of crude oil as refiners scramble to source alternative supplies ahead of a looming EU sanctions deadline, the IEA said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
OGJ editors
The US is the main contender to become Europe’s biggest supplier of crude oil as refiners scramble to source alternative supplies ahead of a looming EU sanctions deadline, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.

By August, the gap between imports of Russian and US barrels narrowed to just 40,0000 b/d, from a 1.3 million b/d pre-war average. US crude oil made up for almost half of lost Russian volumes in the region.

4. Ngoja tuone itakavyokua lakini Europe imesema haitahusika na bima za Meli ambazo zitabeba mafuta ya Urusi kwa Bei kinyume na Ile inayokubaliwa na EU.
Turkey ni mfano wa nchi ambazo zitapiga Marufuku meli ambazo hazijawa insured kupita pale Bosporus

 

[GAGL]

Hiyo siyo tafsiri sahihi ya maneno yake kuhusu "Minski Agreement," ambayo kwa sehemu kubwa alikuwa akijitetea kushindwa kuzuia uvamizi wa Urusi; allilaumu urusi kuvunja makubaliano hayo kwa kuendelea kuwapa silaha waasi wa maeneo yaliyokuwa chini ya Minski Agreement hiyo

In her interviews with Alexander Osang, which took place over a period of a year and in various locations, Merkel insisted that her stance on the Minsk agreement – which brought a ceasefire after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula – had been right. Key points of the Minsk peace talks, including disarmament and supervision by an international body, were never followed through. But Merkel said the agreement had nevertheless helped buy Kyiv time to arm itself better against the Russian military.

Sasa huoni hapa kuwa aliyekiuka makubaliano ni Ukraine na sio Russia

 

[MK254]

RUSSIA TAIFA TEULE

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Akbar akbar

 

[kp kipanya44]

Zelensk anawatoa kafara vijana wake kwenye mji wa Bakhmut.ni bora awambie waondoke kwenye mji huo

Naona umerithi mikoba ya morogoro kasikazin..,huyo alilipoti kabisa kwamba majeshi ya urusi yaneshaingia katikati ya mji wa bakhumut.., Nina mashaka uenda wewe ndiye morogoro kasikazin umekuja kwa I'd nyingine, maana hivi vituko havina tofauti na vile vya morogoro kasikazin [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

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[5525]

We kweli hauna akili.Ebu cheki ramani ya vita alafu urudi tena[emoji1787][emoji1787]

ramani google mwenyeo

 

[mohamedidrisa789]

Kipindi hicho Ukraine ilikuwa haijapewa HIMARS..., baada ya Ukraine kupewa HIMARS urusi hajasonga mbele popote pale, badala yake amebaki kuchimba handaki na kujenga defense line.., hivyo kama una ndoto kwamba ya severodonetsk yatajirudia huko bakhumut amka haraka sana maana ni adhuhuli ya saa 9

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Ikitokea nikuite nani.niambie kabisa ili nisave post yako

 

[Axel Lloyd]

Theluthi moja ya mizinga iliyopelekwa Ukraine imeharibuka na haifanyi kazi. Imepelekwa Poland kwa repair. na bado haijarud kwenye opereshen

Au kiswahili kigumu

MFANO
Theluthi moja ya vichwa vya treni vilivyoletwa Tanzania ni vibovu havifanyi kazi.

Theluthi moja ya vichwa vya treni vilivyoletwa Tanzania vimeharibika havifanyi kazi.

Kuna tofauti kubwa kati ya hizo sentence mbili,ndo tofauti iliyopo Kati ya taarifa yako na ya NYT.

 

[Axel Lloyd]

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

 

[Bwana Utam]

Akbar akbar

RUSSIA TAIFA TEULE

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[eliakeem]

Thibitisha kwamba huyo super pawer wenu hakutembezewa kichapo na kukimbia hayo maeneo.., vinginevyo unajicholesha tu,

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Nyie huwa hamfuatilii habari kutoka vyazo huru. Nyie hajasikia ya kuwa Ukraine amewatahadhatisha raia wake kuondoka mara moja maeneo ambayo Urusi aliyakimbia!?

 

[kp kipanya44]

Ikitokea nikuite nani.niambie kabisa ili nisave post yako

Niite mbwa nimekaa pale

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[MK254]

RUSSIA TAIFA TEULE

Sent using Jamii Forums mobile app

Akbar akbar

 

[Liwagu]

Niite mbwa nimekaa paleView attachment 2429086

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[emoji1787][emoji1787]

 

[ITR]

Wenzako kina @bukyanangadi walisema mpaka November jeshi la Ukraine litakua limesagwa sagwa na warusi Leo hii November bado siku tatu iishe tuingie December...na wewe unasema miezi miwili!!!![emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
January sio mbali tutakukumbusha[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

Taadhari tupe maelezo juu ya hii habari au ni uzushi? Mheshimiwa msemaji mkuu wa Pentagon.

 

[Axel Lloyd]

Taadhari tupe maelezo juu ya hii habari au ni uzushi? Mheshimiwa msemaji mkuu wa Pentagon.View attachment 2429114

Kilaza anakuaje msemaji Mkuu wa Pentagon ewe kilaza mwenzangu?!

 

[Axel Lloyd]

“Negotiations cannot end the #Russian war against #Ukraine; they can only pause it...The conflict is unresolvable as long as Putinism rules the Kremlin. Negotiations won’t change that reality,” writes Frederick Kagan for @criticalthreats.

 

[FRANC THE GREAT]

Vipi kuhusu misaada ya marekani?..
Siyo karata yake ya kutuweka utumwani?..

Kwani US hajaikamata EU kwa misaada yake ?..

Hii dunia unachafua tu East or West .

Akikataa ges ya uruss itabid achukue us na ina gharama.

Na german , Ukaya yote wanachukua ges kwa mrussi ujue

Misaada ya Marekani kwa EU ina mahusiano gani na mjadala wa Merkel kutoshangazwa na uvamizi wa Urusi?

Umebadili mjadala ghafla bila taarifa!

Tujikite kwanza kwenye mjadala uliopo mezani kuhusu Merkel na sera zake za masuala ya kigeni, pamoja na uvamizi wa Urusi nchini Ukraine.

Na, aliyekuambia kuwa Marekani na Urusi ndio suppliers pekee wa gesi barani Ulaya ni nani?

EXCLUSIVE Norway eyes high gas output until 2030, says energy minister

Norway plans to maintain its current high gas production level until the end of the decade as Europe plans to ditch Russian imports over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, its energy minister said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Norway has overtaken Russia as Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas - and vowed to keep output high as the energy crisis worsens: report

Norway intends to maintain its current natural gas production levels until 2030, its energy minister Terje Aasland said Tuesday.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[rmajani]

Urusi kaivamia Ukraine 1940 kipind NATO haipo dunian , pia Kaja Kuivamia Ukraine mwaka 2014 na kumega Crimea kipind Ukraine hana mpango wa kujiunga na NATO , kisa ni wananchi kuandaman kumtoa yule kibaraka wa Urusi aliyekuwa rais wa Ukraine , alipotolewa kwa nguvu ya Raia toka hapo Urusi alianza ifanyia vituko Ukraine , Mpk 2015 Ukraine ndo wakaanza kufikiria kujiunga na NATO , kipindi chote hiki Urusi alipandikiza waasi kweny majimbo ya mashariki ya Ukraine , alipoingia Zele 2019 , Zele aliwapelekea moto hao waasi wakaanza kusalimu amri , Urusi akaamua ajitokeze hadharan baada ya kuona vita ya waasi ashashindwa , Feb 2022 akaivamia kiev akidai anayalinda majimbo yanayotaka kujitenga ila kama upo timamu hujiulize alifiata nini Kiev kama mission ni kulinda majimbo yanayotaka kujitenga ? au kiev ilitaka kujitenga ? , HAYA MENGINE MNALISHANA MATANGO PORI KUSAPOTI UGAIDI WA URUSI , URUSI ASHAVAMIA NCHI NYING JIRANI YAKE , KIUFUP URUSI ANAWAONA MAJIRAN ZAKE KAMA MAKOLON YAKE NA ANATAKA HADI UONGOZ WA NCHI JIRAN YAKE UWE UNAPANGWA MOSCOW , KITU AMBACHO MAJIRAN HAWATAKI KUSIKIA MF GEORGIA WALIZIPIGA na URUSI 2008 KISA UJINGA KAMA HUU WA URUSI KUTOHESHIMU MAJIRAN ZAKE

Kama Zanzibar ilivyo kolon la Dar, na Comoro ilivyo kolon la Dar, mpaka Dar es salaam iamue nani awe Rais

 

[Axel Lloyd]

#Ukraine: A Russian ZALA 421-16Е2 reconnaissance drone fell out of the Sky in the vicinity of #Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast.