Special Thread: Yanayojiri Mgogoro wa Ukraine na Urusi. Nini chanzo na hatma ya mzozo?

[Axel Lloyd]

[emoji298] ISW: The overall pace of operations in Ukraine is likely to increase in the upcoming weeks as the ground freezes.

 

[Axel Lloyd]

[emoji298] Germany is ready to support the embargo from January 1 and replace Russian oil through the Druzhba [Friendship] pipeline — Welt.

[emoji117] Follow @Flash_news_ua

 

[Shujaa Mwendazake]

Washirika wakuu pekee ndio wana uwezo kiasi wa kuendelea kuipa silaha Kyiv, ripoti inabainisha

Akiba ya silaha za nchi za Magharibi zimekuwa na shida baada ya kutumwa kwa silaha nyingi kwenda Ukraine, na hivyo kufanya kuwa vigumu kwa majeshi ya NATO kuendelea kusikiliza ahadi za wanasiasa kuendelea kusaidia Kyiv kwa chochote inachohitaji hata kama itachukua muda mrefu , New York Times iliripoti Jumamosi.

"Nchi ndogo zimemaliza uwezo wao," na kulingana na afisa mmoja wa NATO, angalau wanachama 20 kati ya 30 wa muungano huo "wamefika ukomo," gazeti hilo liliandika. Ni “washirika wakubwa zaidi,” ikiwemo Ufaransa, Ujerumani, Italia, na Uholanzi, walio na akiba ya kutosha kuendelea au kuwa na uwezekano wa kuongeza usafirishaji wao wa silaha hadi Ukraini.

Tangu kuanza kwa operesheni ya kijeshi ya Urusi nchini Ukraine mwishoni mwa mwezi Februari, Marekani na washirika wake wa Magharibi wamekuwa wakiipatia Kyiv msaada wa mabilioni ya dola katika usalama, hadi kufikia karibu dola bilioni 40, ambayo sasa ni sawa na bajeti yote ya ulinzi ya kila mwaka ya Ufaransa. Moscow imeonya mara kwa mara kwamba shehena za silaha hizo zitaongeza tu mzozo huo na kuongeza hatari ya mzozo wa moja kwa moja kati ya Urusi na NATO.

Huku Ukraine ikiendelea kutoa wito wa kutaka silaha zaidi, hifadhi za Umoja wa Ulaya zinaendelea kupungua, huku Ujerumani tayari "ikifikia kikomo chake" kuanzia mwanzoni mwa Septemba. Wakati huo huo, Lithuania, ambayo haina silaha zaidi ya kuchangia, imewahimiza washirika kutoa Ukraine "kila kitu tulicho nacho."

 

[Shujaa Mwendazake]

Muanzisha thread una tatizo na kiingereza. Kiufupi taarifa yako umepotosha either kwa makusudi ukijua kuna watu utawapata esp pro Russians au umeshindwa kutafsiri kile haswa kilichoripotiwa na NYT.

Tutafsirie wewe basi. Theluthi moja siyo mbovu

 

[Shujaa Mwendazake]

Halafu bado Tu unabisha embu soma tena hayo maneno yako uliyoyabold

"The weapons either burn out due to long periods of overuse or become damaged in combat and cannot be repaired in the field. The task of fixing the equipment has..."


Maneno uliyoyabold na taarifa yako ni vitu viwili tofauti,Wewe kwenye taarifa yako umesema mizinga iliyopelekwa Ukraine ni mibovu haifanyi kazi...huku NYT wanatuambia shida sio mibovu Ila ni kutokana na kutumika Sana.

Labda Mimi sijui kiingereza.

Theluthi moja ya mizinga iliyopelekwa Ukraine imeharibuka na haifanyi kazi. Imepelekwa Poland kwa repair. na bado haijarud kwenye opereshen

Au kiswahili kigumu

 

[Shujaa Mwendazake]

kwa hiyo ukraine anasonga mbele kimazingaumbwe au,maana bila mizinga huwez songa mbele hata kidogo

Hiyo unasema wewe sasa. mi nimeleta habari tu

 

[Shujaa Mwendazake]

Ina maana huu uvamizi hauna uhusiano na kuvunjika kwa hayo makubaliano kama Urusi walivyodai awali ?

majimbo ya mashariki Zele hakuyapa hiyo hadhi maalum na alikuwa akiwachapa..

 

[Shujaa Mwendazake]

Nishati ya Urusi ni karata inayotumika na Urusi kukuza (promote) maslahi yake ikiwemo yale yanayohatarisha usalama wa bara la Ulaya mfano, uvamizi wa Ukraine. Haya ni maneno ya Wajerumani wenyewe, mimi nimenukuu tu!

Ukitaka kujua makosa ya Merkel ni yapi, fuatilia mahojiano yake yote aliyofanya na vyombo vya habari baada ya uvamizi wa Urusi mwaka huu.

Pia, fuatilia kauli za viongozi wenzake nchini Ujerumani wakiwemo wa sasa hivi na wale waliokuwa kwenye serikali yake.

Kosa kubwa zaidi la Angela Merkel linalojadiliwa sana ni mradi wa Nord Stream 2. Hata rais wa Ujerumani amewahi kukiri hadharani kuwa mradi wa nishati wa Nord Stream 2 umeiathiri vibaya Ujerumani kwa sababu haukufanyiwa tathmini ipasavyo.

German foreign policy under fire

Critics see Russia's invasion of Ukraine as proof that Germany's attempted "change through trade" policy was a mistake. An entire generation of politicians is under the microscope — including Angela Merkel.

www.dw.com

Pia soma:

Germany's last energy plan a 'disaster'

German Agriculture Minister Cem Ozdemir says the current coalition inherited a "catastrophic" energy policy from Angela Merkel's government. Berlin is worried that Russian gas supplies may be cut this winter.

www.dw.com

Germany's Russia policy in tatters

Germany's historic Russia policy, which has been focused on "special relationship" diplomacy and economic ties rather than confrontation, has been struck a blow by Russia's escalation. What now for Berlin?

www.dw.com

Germany must 'diversify' away from Russian gas

Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned against Europe's No.1 economy becoming a "pawn" in Russia's game. Natural gas stockpiles across the EU are at their lowest in years as tensions over Ukraine intensify.

www.dw.com

Vipi kuhusu misaada ya marekani?..
Siyo karata yake ya kutuweka utumwani?..

Kwani US hajaikamata EU kwa misaada yake ?..

Hii dunia unachafua tu East or West .

Akikataa ges ya uruss itabid achukue us na ina gharama.

Na german , Ukaya yote wanachukua ges kwa mrussi ujue

 

[Bwana Utam]

Bhas itakua walikua wanafanya jogging

Labda

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[Risen man]

Mashoga ya Tanzania na kule kibera yatapinga

 

[ITR]

Kwanza ban kamili ya Mafuta ya Urusi kuingia Europe inaanza December 5 mwaka huu.
Hata hivyo baadhi ya nchi zilishaacha kununua mafuta ya Urusi na sasa kiasi cha mafuta ya Urusi yanayoingia Europe kimeshuka zaidi ya Nusu,na hiyo ni Kwa miezi Tisa tu ya hii vita.

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Russian oil imports into the European Union fell to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from 2.5 million bpd in January, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Factbox: How will EU ban on Russian crude affect oil flows?

Na soon Marekani ndo atakua msambazaji mkubwa wa mafuta Europe.

Ukiacha mafuta,kuna makaa ya mawe ambayo deadline yake kuingia Europe ilikua August na tangu hapo Europe haijaagiza tena makaa toka Russia Ila imehamia kwenye nchi nyingine ikiwemo Afrika kusini.

Marekani alipiga ban mafuta ya Urusi siku ya tatu baada ya uvamizi lakini mpaka sasa kiwango cha mafuta ya Urusi yanayoingia Marekani ni zaidi ya mara mbili ya kabla ya vita kwa maana hiyo ban iko kwenye makaratasi tu lakini kwenye uhalisia wameshindwa, kwahiyo hata ulaya wataweka hiyo ban lakini hawataitekeleza kikamilifu maana sio rahisi kama unavyo fikiri.

Makampuni mengi ya kimagharibi yalitangaza kuondoka nchini Urusi lakini mpaka sasa haya jaondoka bado yana fanya biashara ndani ya Urusi na kuna kipindi rais wa Ukraine alilamika juu ya hilo.

 

[DALA]

Kwanza ban kamili ya Mafuta ya Urusi kuingia Europe inaanza December 5 mwaka huu.
Hata hivyo baadhi ya nchi zilishaacha kununua mafuta ya Urusi na sasa kiasi cha mafuta ya Urusi yanayoingia Europe kimeshuka zaidi ya Nusu,na hiyo ni Kwa miezi Tisa tu ya hii vita.

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Russian oil imports into the European Union fell to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from 2.5 million bpd in January, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Factbox: How will EU ban on Russian crude affect oil flows?

Na soon Marekani ndo atakua msambazaji mkubwa wa mafuta Europe.

Ukiacha mafuta,kuna makaa ya mawe ambayo deadline yake kuingia Europe ilikua August na tangu hapo Europe haijaagiza tena makaa toka Russia Ila imehamia kwenye nchi nyingine ikiwemo Afrika kusini.

Nani anaumia kwa mtazamo wako? Maana takwimu zinaonyesha Urusi inatengeneza faida kubwa sana pamoja na mauzo yake ya mafuta kwenda EU na Marekani kupungua.

Kati ya Urusi na EU unadhani nani anaumia zaidi?

 

[ITR]

Kwanza ban kamili ya Mafuta ya Urusi kuingia Europe inaanza December 5 mwaka huu.
Hata hivyo baadhi ya nchi zilishaacha kununua mafuta ya Urusi na sasa kiasi cha mafuta ya Urusi yanayoingia Europe kimeshuka zaidi ya Nusu,na hiyo ni Kwa miezi Tisa tu ya hii vita.

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Russian oil imports into the European Union fell to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from 2.5 million bpd in January, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Factbox: How will EU ban on Russian crude affect oil flows?

Na soon Marekani ndo atakua msambazaji mkubwa wa mafuta Europe.

Ukiacha mafuta,kuna makaa ya mawe ambayo deadline yake kuingia Europe ilikua August na tangu hapo Europe haijaagiza tena makaa toka Russia Ila imehamia kwenye nchi nyingine ikiwemo Afrika kusini.

Marekani mafuta anayo zalisha hayamtoshi alafu aje apate ya kusambaza balani Ulaya?hivi ww jamaa unajua unacho kiongea au naongea na mtu mwenye uelewa mdogo?

 

[ITR]

Venezuela mara nyingi ameshaomba aondolewe vikwazo lkn Marekani ilikataa sababu ya issue za human rights abuses,Ila Jana Marekani imekubali Chevron ianze kuzalisha mafuta Venezuela lkn mapato hayataenda kwa serikali ya Maduro.

US provides Chevron limited authorization to pump oil in Venezuela after reaching humanitarian agreement
By Sam Fossum, CNN
Updated 2:16 PM EST, Sat November 26, 2022

Washington(CNN)The US has granted Chevron limited authorization to resume pumping oil from Venezuela following the announcement Saturday that the Venezuelan government and the opposition group have reached an agreement on humanitarian relief and will continue to negotiate for a solution to the country's chronic economic and political crisis, including a focus on the 2024 elections.

The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on Saturday issued Venezuela General License 41, which authorizes Chevron to "resume limited natural resource extraction operations in Venezuela," according to a news release from the Treasury Department. This is a 6-month license, and the US can revoke it at any time. Additionally, any profits earned will go to repaying debt to Chevron and not to the Maduro regime, according to the senior official, and states that the US government will continue to require significant reporting by Chevron on its financial operations.

GL 41 authorizes activity related to Chevron's joint ventures in Venezuela only, and does not authorize other activity with PdVSA. Other Venezuela-related sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States remain in place; the United States will vigorously enforce these sanctions and will continue to hold accountable any actor that engages in corruption, violates U.S. laws, or abuses human rights in Venezuela," the release said. PdVSA is the state-owned Venezuelan oil and gas company.

If the Venezuelan regime continues to take concrete steps toward reaching a negotiated solution, then future targeted sanctions relief is possible, according to the official.
US provides Chevron limited authorization to pump oil in Venezuela after reaching humanitarian agreement | CNN Politics

Mkubwa ni mkubwa tu.[emoji1258][emoji1258][emoji1258]

Yaani Maduro akuruhusu uje uchimbe mafuta ndani ya nchi yake alafu pesa isiingie kwenye serikali yake? Ww jamaa ngoja ni kuaache maana dah.

 

[Fursakibao]

Mara kadhaa nimeandika humu kuwa uwezo wako wa kuchambua Mambo ni wa chini kabisa...kwa fikra zako unadhani kuingilia operation ni pamoja na kutoa misaada ....lakini wenzio makini na wanaojua Mambo haya wanajua kuwa kuingilia operation ni to put boots on the ground...yaani kupeleka Askari, kutumia ndege za kijeshi kupiga majeshi ya huyo unayedhani ni mvamizi, kufunga anga kwa maana ya kuweka no fly zone kwa huyo unayemwita mvamizi.,...Mpaka Sasa NATO na west haijafanya vyote hivyo...Sasa wewe kwa akili yzko ya uwezo mdogo unadhani kupeleka fedha na himars ndiyo tayari kuingilia operation...poor you...nangojea matusi yako kwa comment yangu hii kwani ndicho jnachoweza kufanya kwani huna uwezo wa kujenga hoja....uwezo wako ni msafara wa kilomita 100 uko wapi, pimbi na fashisti Putin, superpowers wa mchongo, kuingilia operation, wazee wa Kherson, na kadhalika...

Usihange na hao wa ukraini wa boko. Nishawaeleza sana hilinsuala lakini wanakaza mafuvu tu. Yaani wameng'ang'ania hàpo

 

[Bwana Utam]

View attachment 2427582

NATO umoja wa MAGAIDI

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[Axel Lloyd]

Yaani Maduro akuruhusu uje uchimbe mafuta ndani ya nchi yake alafu pesa isiingie kwenye serikali yake? Ww jamaa ngoja ni kuaache maana dah.

Kazi kwao, mkubwa kashasema

If the Venezuelan regime continues to take concrete steps toward reaching a negotiated solution, then future targeted sanctions relief is possible, according to the official.

 

[KEMPANJU BOY]

Mie nauliza tu, hao OPEC walisema wanapunguza uzalishaji wa mafuta lakini naona bei za wese zinazidi kushuka, je ule msimamo wao ulilegezwa kwasababu ya biti la bepari mkuu au nini kimetokea?

 

[triga]

Kwanza ban kamili ya Mafuta ya Urusi kuingia Europe inaanza December 5 mwaka huu.
Hata hivyo baadhi ya nchi zilishaacha kununua mafuta ya Urusi na sasa kiasi cha mafuta ya Urusi yanayoingia Europe kimeshuka zaidi ya Nusu,na hiyo ni Kwa miezi Tisa tu ya hii vita.

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Russian oil imports into the European Union fell to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from 2.5 million bpd in January, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Factbox: How will EU ban on Russian crude affect oil flows?

Na soon Marekani ndo atakua msambazaji mkubwa wa mafuta Europe.

Ukiacha mafuta,kuna makaa ya mawe ambayo deadline yake kuingia Europe ilikua August na tangu hapo Europe haijaagiza tena makaa toka Russia Ila imehamia kwenye nchi nyingine ikiwemo Afrika kusini.

1. Ban inahusu mafuta yanayopita baharini na sio kwenye mabomba.

2. Urusi ana alternative market ambayo ni Asia. Tangu kuanza kwa vita India na China zimeongeza zaidi ununuaji wa mafuta kutoka urusi. Mwezi wa tatu mauzo kwenye nchi hizo mbili tu yalikuwa makubwa kuliko mauzo kwa nchi 27 za EU.

3. Help me Understand the logic behind your prediction kwamba soon US atakuwa supplier/msambazaji mkubwa wa mafuta ulaya.

• US oil priduction 12m bpd (1st in the world)
• Us oil consumption 19m bpd (1st in the world)

With such domestic deficit anapata wapi uwezo wa kuwa supplier mkubwa europe!?

4. Swala la price cap sio rahisi na sio solution nzuri ni basi tu ulaya hawana namna. A bad solution to a worse problem, thats what it is. In the end linaweza kubackfire vby kwenye global energy supply ndio maana unaona ulaya wenyewe wanatumia muda mrefu kuafikiana kulipitisha. Putin ameshasema hawatouza mafuta kwa nchi itayosapoti price cap.

Ugumu uko hapa. Wanatakiwa waweke bei ambayo itakuwa juu ya production cost lkn chini ya faida. Yaani Urusi asipate faida lkn pia asipate hasara. Akipata faida lengo halitafikiwa na akipata hasara anaweza kusitisha kbs uzalishaji na hiyo itakuwa na athari mbaya sana kwenye soko la mafuta duniani. Bei inayopendekezwa ni 65 to 70 usd/b ambayo ni karibu na bei anayouza ss hv. Nchi km Poland walipendekeza 20 usd/b[emoji16]. Pia Inaonekana Russia anaweza kuzitumia kampuni za bima za china kubypass kigingi cha ulaya.

 

[Nyamizi]

Hakuna ulazima wa Mimi kuipinga kwa hoja kauli au comment ya mtu wa Aina hiyo...mtu anaamini kuwa Russia inabondwa bondwa wakati kwa zaidi ya miezi 8 misaada ya Kila Aina kutoka nchi 30 imeshindwa mpaka Sasa kuiokoa Ukraine...yaani Ukraine inateketezwa na karibu inafutwa eti mtu na akili yake anasema Russia inapigwa..

[emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]