Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
Basics
Well, Artemovsk is indeed the total manifestation of my described scenario
from this analysis. Indeed, I had a slightly deviated view. My assumption was that Russia will use the whole line of contact in Donbass as “meatgrinder” the ground down Ukrainian reserves. In fact, General Surovikin decided to reduce it to only one town. To Artemovsk.
Attrition
Ukraine mustn’t lose this town for several reasons, that I will discuss in the next chapter. To hold the town, Ukraine is now feeding in it everything it has. Material and men.
General Surovikin announced in one of his two interviews, that he will grind the Ukrainians down, without putting his own troops into unnecessary high risks. Artemovsk is, as already stated the perfect place. It is strategically important, to keep on holding the rest of Donbass. It is in a very favourable position for the Russian artillery and Air Force. Russia has air dominance over Artemovsk and very short supply lines for all logistical needs, such as artillery shells and other things.
Ukraine has the absolute opposite situation in Artemovsk. Almost all disadvantages, one could have in a war. It is the perfect place to bury Ukraine’s army. Slightly a sad situation if one thinks about it.
In fact, the Ukrainians keep plugging holes in their human shield line with everything it has. With their most professional troops and down to freshly recruited and untrained people. Everyone gets sent to Artemovsk and has a live expectancy of several hours to a few days.
Remember. A country without an army is defeated, since the enemy can walk straight through it without a big fight, apart from a few partisans. This is the goal of General Surovikin. Trigger this collapse as efficient as possible. This is an industrial destruction of an army. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to trigger a total collapse. As long as Ukraine can keep up recruiting people, these people can be sent to the slaughter. And since this recruitment and enforcement is managed by Western powers, this could potentially keep up for many months to come. Which is a tragedy for Ukraine, since it could lose all able-bodied men in the process.
Why is this industrial destruction of their own people working so good for Ukraine? Because they have perfectly established supply and logistics lines to Artemovsk. To end this madness earlier, another front will need to be opened, where Ukraine has almost no defences and logistics established. This would be needed, to trigger a large-scale collapse of the whole country. But I’ll come later to that.
Reasons
Why is Ukraine holding on to such a madness, even though everyone knows exactly, that this is a well-prepared death trap, by the Russians? Well, to be honest. I don’t know. That’s why I will offer a few assumptions as bullet points:
Blackmailing the West (less likely):
There are plenty of forces in the West, that wants to directly intervene in the war, since they see the soon defeat of Ukraine. They could potentially work with the Ukrainian command, to show to the decision makers, that it will soon be all over, the whole foothold in Russia’s doorstep, if the West doesn’t intervene with boots on the ground. By disposing its whole armed forces in Artemovsk, this could be accelerated.
Delaying Russian plans for a larger winter offensive (less likely):
There could be some known plans, when and where Russia could start its winter offensive. It could be potentially linked to the capturing of Artemovsk. By denying Russia to capture Artemovsk within the known timeframe, Ukraine could try to avert or delay such an offensive as long as possible. If the ground starts to soften up again, an offensive will be much less effective then when the ground is frozen.
Disposing of Ukraine’s human potential (Middle to highly likely):