Swali Muflisi: Kwani Hawa Walitoka Wapi?

Unajua umesema kwa uchungu sana na inagusa fikra hadi nukta ya ubongo. Tatizo haya ni mambo ambayo hayawezi kuondolewa kwa kulalamikiwa hivi; ni mambo yanayondolewa kwa kubadilisha sera. Uzuri ni kuwa sera hubadilishwa ama na chama tawala au na chama kingine. Sasa hivi sera ya CCM kuhusu hili haijabadilika kwa miaka karibu 30 sasa.
 

KUNA OMBWE LA SERA MADHUBUTI JUU YA UKUU WA NAFSI YA KIUTU KATIKA NGAZI YA DOLA: TUNAKWENDA WAPI BAADA YA HAPA?

Ndugu Mwanakijiji, umeandika: “Haya ni mambo ambayo hayawezi kuondolewa kwa kulalamikiwa hivi; ni mambo yanayondolewa kwa kubadilisha sera. Uzuri ni kuwa sera hubadilishwa ama na chama tawala au na chama kingine. Sasa hivi sera ya CCM kuhusu hili haijabadilika kwa miaka karibu 30 sasa.”

Umejenga hoja nzuri sana. Na sasa ninayo maswali ya tafakari:
  1. Sera mbadala kuhusu ukuu wa nafsi ya kiutu ya dola ya Tanzania, yaani “corporate personal sovereignty of the Tanzanian state”, ipo tayari?
  2. Kama ipo iko wapi na kwenye mikono ya nani?
  3. Kama haijatengenezwa nani aitengeneze?
  4. Kwa sasa chama kikuu cha upinzani ni Chadema, Je Wanayo think-tank kwa ajili ya kusanisi sera za aina tunayoiongelea?
  5. Tangu ile think-tank ya Chadema iliyojumuisha kina Prof Kitila, Prof Baregu, Zitto, na wengine kadhaa, ilipovunjika kuna mbadala wake leo ndani ya Chadema?
  6. Je kuna dalili za Mbowe wa Chadema kuamka sasa na kutumia fursa hii kujihuisha na kurudi kwenye mstari?
    • Mwenyekiti wa Chadema, Freeman bowe, amekuwa mentor anayekimbiwa na mentees kila kukicha, kwa sababu kuu mbili.
    • Sababu ya kwanza ni "principal hazards" zinazomhusu yeye mwenyewe, kwa maana kwamba anashindwa kusimamia wasaidizi wake na anakwamisha upatikanaji wa rasilimali mikoani na majimboni.
    • Na sababu ya pili ni "agent hazards" zianazowahusu baadhi ya wasaidizi wake, katika Sekretarieti na Kamati Kuu. Hawa wamefikia hatua ya kukengeuka kiasi cha kukata majina ya wagombea makini wenye degree na kubakiza wagombea hafifu kama vile mameneja wa baa, wenye elimu ya darasa la saba. Halafu bado wanadai wanataka kuleta "mabadiliko ya kweli" katika Taifa.
    • Sababui zote mbili zinachangia katika kusababisha "organizational mission creep" ndani ya Chadema, kiasi kwamba sasa chama kinakimbiwa na watu makini.
  7. Kama jibu ni hapana kuna uwezekano wa sera hii kubuniwa na kutekelezwa kupitia chama kama vile ACT?
  8. Kama jibu ni Hapana, kuna uwezekano wa mabadiliko kufanyika kupitia CCM kwa kuwatumia watu wenye kiu ya haki waliomo humo ndani?
  9. Kama jibu ni hapana, kuna uwezekano wa kuunda alliance mpya inayounganisha watu makini kutoka pande zote na kisha kuwapiku watu wanaosigina ukuu wa nafsi ya dola ya Tanzania?
  10. Je wapiga kura wengi wako tayari kwa mabadiliko tunayoyataka?
  11. Je, elimu ya uraia inayotosheleza mahitaji imewafikia wapiga kura wengi?
  12. Je, elimu ya mpiga kura inayotosheleza mahitaji imewafikia wapiga kura wengi?
Kuhusu suala hili la elimu kwa wapiga kura “voter turnout trend” na “voter abstention trend” za Tanzania zinatia shaka. Utafiti wangu mdogo kuhusu “voter turnout trend” na “voter abstention trend” unaonyesha trends zifuatazo:




Grafu ya “voter abstention trend” inaonekana hivi, ambapo mstari ulionyooka unaeleza kwamba watu wataendelea kususia upigaji kura kwa kiwango kikubwa zaidi katika siku za usoni:



Na trend ya voter turnout tangu 1995 hadi 2020 inaporomoka kama grafu ifuatayo inavyoonyesha, ambapo mstari ulionyooka unaonyesha kuwa wapiga kura wataendelea kushuka katika siku za usoni:



Na kuhusu "principal hazards" na "agent hazards" ninazoziongelea, yaani yaani "a two-sided moral hazard problem," napenda maana zifuatazo zieleweke:
  • Delegation is the process whereby a superior entrusts work to another person, who is one's subordinate, where the subordinate owns the work and is largely left alone to achieve the necessary outcome, once the context of the task and goal are discussed and mutually agreed. There are dilemmas associated with delegating powers from a principal to an agent.

  • On the one hand, delegation risks comprise of agents pursuing policy outputs that reflect their own interests and preferences rather than those of the principal, a problem known as agency slack. In this case, there is both shirking and slippage. Shirking occurs when an agent minimizes the effort it exerts on its principal’s behalf. And slippage occurs when an agent shifts policy away from its principal’s preferred outcome and toward its own preferences.

  • On the other hand, delegation risks comprise of the principals’ behavior where the principal misbehaves such that the agency autonomy is affected . These misbehaviors include providing too few resources to agents for carrying out tasks (principal shirking), lack of unclear mandates (principal drift), opportunistic behavior by the principal to obstruct the work of the agent (principal subversion), and principal’s delegation of conflicting tasks, where this fact sends unclear signals to the agent, leading to poor performance and often resulting in mission creep (antinomic delegation).

Kama hivyo ndivyo, tunakwenda wapi baada ya hapa na tutapitia njia gani?
 
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