#COVID19 COVID-19 is historical in Tanzania: Why don't USA, UK, EU and others copy from Tanzania how to fight against the Corona Virus?

[Zakumi]

One of my siblings is recovering from COVID, so is my best friend. Both are in Tanzania. And when I talk to people down there, it seems everybody knows somebody who has recovered from the disease. So one could argue that the disease is rampant there. But the good thing is the mortality rate is very low there and this could be contributed by two factors: robust immune system, and the dominance of the young demographic group in the population.

Kujifukiza doesn't improve one's immune system. It can be used as a therapy to shorten the recovery period but I don't think it helps that much. With regard to personal hygiene, this is an airborne disease and I don't think the virus cares about that.

 

[Mlenge]

Zakumi , let us not conflate the first wave and the second wave. Some call the new virus as The South African variant. I call it SARS-COV-2.1. For, if we call it The South African Variant, then we would have to call the original version China Virus.

The first wave passed, and we forgot about the whole coronavirus shebang here in Tanzania. To claim Tanzania did not conquer the first wave coronavirus just because we are facing the second wave, IMHO it is some logical error.

The current wave, if any, too shall pass in not a distant future, because of the sharp-peaked curve of the distribution.

 

[Zakumi]

Here is the thing Sir. In our labs we don't use advance technique to test the virus. So how do we know that the one that menacing the population is the South African variant? Remember, we opened our boarders and a good number of visitors came from Europe. Could it be the Kent variant or the original one? Perhaps.

Additionally, the second wave doesn't imply the strain of virus is different. Perhaps, it is the same variant. I think it is a mistake to think it's Southern African without making any verification. It could be a new strain uniquely Tanzania.

 

[Nguruvi3]

The current wave, if any, too shall pass in not a distant future, because of the sharp-peaked curve of the distribution.

Bado upo kwenye 'state of denial '. Kwamba, huoni wala husikii! mkuu una roho ngumu sana

''too shall pass in not a distant'' Ukiwa umepoteza familia, ndugu ,jamaa au rafiki hili ni milele. Mkuu unazo habari ?

'Sharp peaked curve of distribution'' kwa wanaojua epidemiology, hili linaeleza habari kubwa kuliko urahisi unaozungumzia. Mkuu ni kitu gani kinakusukuma hadi unapoteza moral compass kiasi hiki!

 

[Nguruvi3]

Here is the thing Sir. In our labs we don't use advance technique to test the virus. So how do we know that the one that menacing the population is the South African variant? Remember, we opened our boarders and a good number of visitors came from Europe. Could it be the Kent variant or the original one? Perhaps.

Hatuwezi kufanya ''sequencing' ili kubaini kama kuna mutation au la.

Additionally, the second wave doesn't imply the strain of virus is different. Perhaps, it is the same variant. I think it is a mistake to think it's Southern African without making any verification. It could be a new strain uniquely Tanzania.

Kuna watu wanasema hii ni aina mpya ya virus! si kweli. Variant au strain ni virus aliyefanya mutation wakati wa replication kwa host. UK variant inasambaa kwa kasi lakini si 'fatal'. South Africa ni mbaya.
Hatujui '' dominant variant'' kwasababu hatuwezi kufanya sequencing.
So yes, ni makosa kufanya assumptions ya variant, inaweza kuwa strain kutoka popote

 

[Mlenge]

Nguruvi3 , I am not sure I understand why you have problem with the statement below:

...

The current wave, if any, too shall pass in not a distant future, because of the sharp-peaked curve of the distribution.

The current wave, if any: According to you and some other section of the online commentariat, the first wave was still raging; only the suppressed media did not report it. (ref. your comment that njia ya mwongo fupi... ) . If what you asserted reflected reality on the ground, then there is no current wave to talk about, for, there were no other wave: but the one and only original wave.

too shall pass in not a distant future: The wave -- be it current or same old -- too shall pass. "the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it." -- Prof. Ben Isaac-Israel, the head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, says so.

because of the sharp-peaked curve of the distribution.: There are no lockdowns "to flatten the curve", so, why is it wrong to assume that our epidemiological curve would be sharp-peaked?

Bado upo kwenye 'state of denial '. Kwamba, huoni wala husikii! mkuu una roho ngumu sana

''too shall pass in not a distant'' Ukiwa umepoteza familia, ndugu ,jamaa au rafiki hili ni milele. Mkuu unazo habari ?

'Sharp peaked curve of distribution'' kwa wanaojua epidemiology, hili linaeleza habari kubwa kuliko urahisi unaozungumzia. Mkuu ni kitu gani kinakusukuma hadi unapoteza moral compass kiasi hiki!

Kwa ufafanuzi hapo juu, utaona kwamba hakuna denial ya kitu chochote, zaidi ya kuwa cautious na kuaccommodate the possibility that the differing views might the better explanations.

Binadamu wote ni ndugu zangu, na Afrika ni moja: kwa hiyo kila mtu anayepoteza maisha ni irreplaceable tragic loss, na is regretted, na inatugusa kila mmoja wetu.

Kwenye epidemiology, public health is concerned mostly with the health of the population before it deals with individual persons. Sweden is using similar (not the same, similar) strategy to Tanzania -- no lockdown. Kwa nini mitutu inaelekezwa Tanzania pekee? I also do not understand the logical jump from sharply-peaked curve of distribution to the morality of stating it. Is it factual or not that the outbreak has a sharp curve? Truth is amoral: if the epidemiological distribution has indeed (in my opinion) a sharp curve, what does morality got to do with it in stating that? Please enlighten me.

 

[Zakumi]

We agree that there's a second wave based on the surge and decline of COVID patients. However, this pattern has to be taken with a grain of salt because there are multiple factors which could explain the reason behind that. For example, in regions where they experience summer and winter, respiratory diseases surge during Winter time because people spend considerable amount of time inside buildings and in close proximity. In summer time, the number of patients with respiratory diseases goes down considerably.

Now, if one takes into consideration that COVID is one of the respiratory diseases, the individual could explain why Europe, and North America experience the surge this time of the year.

With regard to the trending of disease in Tanzania, one can't explain with certainty what's going on in the country. The government suddenly stopped taking stats in May 2020 and there's no data which could help demarcate the end of the first wave and the beginning of the second one. So you can't say we are experiencing the second wave when you don't know when the first one reached the peak or the bottom .

What we have now in Tanzania is a guess work. We try to patch up things so we can find a rational narrative. I think methodically we have done a poor job.

In your post you equate the Swedish approach to the one we have in Tanzania. I think they two different beasts. First of all the Swedish approach was intended to achieve herd immunity, but we have to remember that the Swedish society is among highly educated in the world. So, the government wanted to cultivate on that. It didn't impose strict lockdown, but it relied on the ability of individuals to take care of themselves. On top of that the country has one of the robust healthcare systems in the world. And meticulously, the country has tracked tracked cases of COVID in the country. For example, right now you can compare Sweden with other countries in the region such as Denmark.

Besides all the measures that Sweden had taken, the country faired the worse in the region. Here are the words of the Swedish Prime Minister explaining the situation:

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said his government should have taken more aggressive steps and moved more quickly to stop the spread of the pandemic, and he takes full responsibility for the initial strategy that led the country to suffer a disproportionately high number of deaths.

Bloomberg -

 

[Zakumi]

Thirty or more years ago when HIV started to ravage the country, we were still an infant nation. In order to verify if an individual had contracted the disease, the blood sample had to be taken out of the country to the lab in Europe. The process took more than two weeks. That was back then.

The situation today isn't better when you compare it to other countries. But we have made some strides and I think we should have approached the disease in a very different way. For example, the government should have allowed experts and media to study and report the diseases respectively. Yes, the country can't lock down the entire country for economic reasons. But the government should have allowed people and various entities engage in order to understand the nature of the disease and also build our own capability.

Concocting stories to make us look good doesn't help the matter. You can't say we have a second when the first wave didn't reach the peak yet. Similarly, you can't say we have the variant from South Africa when you can't sequence the genes.

 

[Nguruvi3]

Nguruvi3 , I am not sure I understand why you have problem with the statement below:

Sina tatizo na kauli, nina tatizo na 'simplicity'. Watu wanakufa, ni janga! huwezi kulieleza kiulaini ukaeleweka

The current wave, if any:

'If any' yaani una doubt kama kuna the current wave! Bado una shaka ! Real?

If what you asserted reflected reality on the ground, then there is no current wave to talk about, for, there were no other wave: but the one and only original wave.

Unaweza ku comment ukiwa na data. Swali, kuna data za kutuwezesha kuelewa trend ya ugonjwa?

too shall pass in not a distant future:

Hii ni kauli iliyonichefua sana! '' Maana yake kwa kiswahili kisicho rasmi '' Hii nalo pia litapita kama upepo''
Mtu aliyepoteza ndugu yake unawezaje kumtazama usoni kwa kauli kama hii!!
Katika maisha, mtu mmoja ni 100%.

because of the sharp-peaked curve of the distribution.: There are no lockdowns "to flatten the curve", so, why is it wrong to assume that our epidemiological curve would be sharp-peaked?

Nothing wrong ! unapaswa kuelewa sharp curve unaongelea high mortality rate.

Kwa ufafanuzi hapo juu, utaona kwamba hakuna denial ya kitu chochote, zaidi ya kuwa cautious na kuaccommodate the possibility that the differing views might the better explanations.

Yeah, right! '' alternative facts'' !

Kwenye epidemiology, public health is concerned mostly with the health of the population before it deals with individual persons. Sweden is using similar (not the same, similar) strategy to Tanzania -- no lockdown.

Yes, Sweden wamelipa gharama. Bosenero wa Brazil ni 'dernier' ! Brazil wame pay the price
Ukizungumzia Sweden wao wana takwimu na tunaweza kupima mafanikio au kufeli kwao. Je kuna takwimu?

Lakini muhimu zaidi , nilidhani utatoa mfano mzuri wa control kutoka New Zealand
Huko kwa Kiwi mama Jacinda Ardern ametumia mbinu za kisayansi za wataalam wake, guess what, wao wataanza vaccination mwezi wa 5.
Nchi za ulimwengu zinaiangalia NZ kama mfano. Huko si ndiko kwa kuiga?

If the epidemiological distribution has indeed (in my opinion) a sharp curve, what does morality got to do with it in stating that? Please enlighten me.

Sharp curve inaweza kuwa na maana nyingi. Kwamba, kuna cases nyingi kwa muda mfupi lakini under control.
Au kuna cases nyingi kwa muda mfupi kukiwa na vifo vingi. kwa ufupi ni sad news ambazo hazipaswi kuwa downplayed na kufanya hivyo kwa maneno kama ' if any' tukijua kuna tatizo na ''this too shall pass...'' ni symptoms za moral decay. Maisha ya mtu mmoja ni 100%

 

[Nguruvi3]

I couldn't agree more!
'' Take the bull by the horns''. 'Call a spade a spade'

 

[Mlenge]

Sina tatizo na kauli, nina tatizo na 'simplicity'. Watu wanakufa, ni janga! huwezi kulieleza kiulaini ukaeleweka

...

Maisha ya mtu mmoja ni 100%

Nakupata pointi yako.

Naomba kueleweshwa, pana chochote ambacho serikali ingekifanya pasiwe na loss of life hata ya mtu mmoja?

 

[Nguruvi3]

Naomba kueleweshwa, pana chochote ambacho serikali ingekifanya pasiwe na loss of life hata ya mtu mmoja?

No! hujaelewa. Ninaposema maisha ya mtu mmoja ni 100% nina maana kuwa loss of life is a tragedy hata kama ni mtu mmoja kwasababu huyo mmoja ni 100% ya mke au mume, watoto n.k.
Kwa mantiki hiyo unaposema ''.. too shall pass...' una ignore maisha na kujali zaidi kurejea katika normalcy kwa kutumia maneno '' .. not a distant future ''.
Sijaongelea serikali ninaongelea kauli zako unless unaongea katika capacity hiyo! Sidhani kama ndivyo!!

 

[Zakumi]

Nakupata pointi yako.

Naomba kueleweshwa, pana chochote ambacho serikali ingekifanya pasiwe na loss of life hata ya mtu mmoja?

I think almost every Tanzania knows that their country is poor and has limited capabilities. So the expectation is the country wouldn't have handled they way rich countries have handled the pandemic. Besides, Tanzanians don't blame their government or medical professionals for any loss of life. For when somebody dies, they will attribute the death to the will of God. They will simply say Bwana ametoa, Bwana amechukua (the Christians) or kwake tumetoka na kwake tutarudi (The Muslims) and move on with their lives.

That being said, I think the government has miscalculated the threat of the disease when it declared the victory. Truly, there was the fall of number of cases after the first burst of the disease; however, it wasn't a victory in true sense. For, we haven't understood the nature of the disease and the best way to handle it. How can you be a real winner when you don't know how you have engineered the victory?

The thing here is there was no victory in the first wave. If there were any victories, we would have applied the same tactics to address the second wave. If the second wave subdues miraculously, again, the government will declare another victory and move on to other things. This is the situation we are in. We create false narratives to make us feel better..

 

[Zakumi]

The fact that we have build schools in every corner of the country is to make sure that people are educated and able to make very informed decisions about their individual lives and their communities. The appearance of diseases such as corona and the appearance of other unpredictable disaster gives the country the window to test its investment in social programs such as education and health care systems. The test will tell the country where it falls short, where it needs refinement, and where new investments should be directed.

The demonstrations done by the minister of health to promote the use of herbs tell you exactly where the country is at the moment. That is exactly the return of investment (ROI) the country has received in education and health care.

 

[Mlenge]

This discussion veers into the territory of Ecological Fallacy: porting inferences about a population to an individual who belongs to that population. That is how a statement hoping the disease outbreak shall pass is deemed as demeaning to an individual who lost life during the outbreak. Otherwise, why do you think a statement hoping the disease outbreak situation shall remain the same indefinitely is a show of respect to an individual who died in that outbreak?

 

[Mlenge]

The first post in this thread was made in September 2020. During that point in time, your statement would have sounded ridiculous to many people in Tanzania. Because they went from being absolute terrified of the calamitous epidemic it was made to look, to a return to normal life. Deaths and sickness from the disease was no longer the case. At that particular point in time.

Now, from epidemiological / public health point of view, this wave will subdue in due course, in my personal opinion, within a month or two: to the levels where the curve will be asymptoting X-axis. Why would that not be considered a victory, again, from the population-level point of view?

 

[Zakumi]

Let me start with the last paragraph. Majority of diseases which claim the lives of many Tanzanians are seasonal. Take for example Malaria, Typhoid and cholera. During the rain season, cases of those diseases shot up. And drastically the cases drop down during the dry season. My question to you is do you consider it a victory when cases of Malaria, typhoid and cholera go down in the dry season? I hope not.

Yes my statement could have sounded ridiculous to many people in Tanzania and probably it does so even today. However, that won't surprise me at all. Isn't the same people who flocked to Loliondo to seek the wonder cure of all diseases? Isn't the same people who inhale hot steam everyday to clean their lungs from covid virus? Tanzanians are notorious for looking medical shortcuts.

Yes in previous months the situation was calmer. However, that doesn't mean the disease wasn't there. You have to remember that in earlier months, there was only one variant of disease and perhaps, the population at that moment was resilient to that particular variant, but it struggles to deal with the new ones.

My main point is we are poor nation and we don't have the means to deal with the disease the way rich nations do. However, this lack of resources shouldn't excuse us from playing our part. We need to test and collect data.

 

[Mlenge]

So, in September 2020 we were celebrating the fact that we became resilient to the old strain. Why is celebrating becoming resilient to the first strain now being ridiculed? Using the same experience, why is it made to sound far-fetched to anticipate becoming resilient to the new strain too?

 

[Wacha1]

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[Wacha1]

''South Africa said Tuesday it would offer its doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine to the African Union (AU) after scrapping their use due to efficacy concerns.''

The world is confused with this disease. What will happen next? Nobody knows, Britain is in a forefront vaccinating its residents as we speak - more than a quarter have received their first jabs (you need two jabs and there is no guarantee that you will not be infected). Time will tell what will happen in a couple of months.