Nimesema wapende wasipende wanategemea bandari aidha za Tanzania au za Kenya. Sijasema lazima wapitie bandari ya Dar es Salaam. Na Tanzania nimesema tunazo bandari nyingi tu ambazo tunaendelea kuziboresha kwa viwango vya kimataifa. Hivyo nchi hizo zina option mbili tu - aidha kupitia Kenya ( Mombasa etc) au Tanzania (Dar, Tanga, Mtwara etc).
Hivyo mshindani wetu hapa pekee ni Kenya. Tukiweka miundo mbinu mizuri kama hiyo ya sgr ya umeme na kuisimamia vizuri Kenya tutamshinda kwani geographically yuko mbali zaidi na nchi hizi kuliko Tanzania.
Hilo la Zambia kilichotokea ni usimamizi (management) mbovu na corruption kwenye reli ya tazara. Zambia ni land locked country. Options zao ni bandari za Afrika kusini, Angola au Tanzania. Kijiografia Tanzania ndiyo best option kwa kutumia reli ya tazara inayotoka Dar es Salaam port hadi Kapilimposhi nchini Zambia. Ni best option kwa Zambia kusafirisha mafuta yao ya petroli kwa kutumia bomba la tazama linalotoka Dar port hadi Zambia. Ni best option kwa Zambia kutumia barabara ya lami inayotoka Dar hadi Makambako. Best options zote hizi tatu kwa Zambia zilipigwa vita na washindani wetu wa Angola na Afrika ya kusini kwa ku corrupt uongozi wa mashirika yetu haya ya tazara na tazama, hasa baada ya wahasisi wa miradi hii kung'atuka madarakani (Mzee Kaunda na Mwl Nyerere). Hivi ni vita vya kiuchumi.
Tunatarajia, na actually wameshaanza, washindani wetu kutoka Kenya kuipiga vita miradi yetu hii ya SGR na ya bomba la mafuta la kutoka Uganda hadi bandari yetu ya Tanga. Waasisi wa miradi hii (Mzee Museveni na Dr Magufuli) wako imara, hatujui watakapong'atuka itakuwaje katika ushindani huu wa kiuchumi. Ninarudia kuwa haya mambo hayana uhusiano na hiyo intuition theory bali ni vita vya kiuchumi ambavyo ndivyo vinatawala kwa dunia ya sasa. Ni struggle of the fittest. Tunapaswa kuwa imara na kuwa wakali (kuwatumbua) wale wote (viongozi) wanaotaka kutuangusha katika vita hivi vya kiuchumi. Tunapaswa kuwa na zero tolorence dhidi ya rushwa na uhujumu uchumi (corruption). JPM kaonesha mfano na sisi wote tunapaswa kufanya hivyo.
Daniel Kahneman: Four Keys to Better Decision Making
The Perils of Intuition
Intuition is a form of what Kahneman calls fast, or System 1, thinking and we often base our decisions on what it tells us.
“We trust our intuitions even when they’re wrong,” he said.
But we
can trust our intuitions — provided they’re based on real expertise. And while we develop expertise through experience, experience alone isn’t enough.
In fact, research demonstrates that experience increases the confidence with which people hold their ideas, but not necessarily the accuracy of those ideas. Expertise requires a particular kind of experience, one that exists in a context that gives regular feedback, that is effectively testable.
“Is the world in which the intuition comes up regular enough so that we have an opportunity to learn its rules?” Kahneman asked.
When it comes to the finance sector, the answer is probably no.
“It’s very difficult to imagine from the psychological analysis of what expertise is that you can develop true expertise in, say, predicting the stock market,” he said. “You cannot because the world isn’t sufficiently regular for people to learn rules.”
That doesn’t stop people from confidently predicting financial outcomes based on their experience.
“This is psychologically a puzzle,” Kahneman said. “How could one learn when there’s nothing to learn?”
That sort of intuition is really superstition. Which means we shouldn’t assume we have expertise in all the domains where we have intuitions. And we shouldn’t assume others do either.
“When somebody tells you that they have a strong hunch about a financial event,” he said, “the safe thing to do is not to believe them.”
Noise alert:
“Whenever there is judgment there is noise and probably a lot more than you think,” Kahneman said.
For example, radiologists were given a series of X-rays and asked to diagnose them. Sometimes they were shown the same X-ray.
“In a shockingly high number of cases, the diagnosis is different,” he said.
The same held true for DNA and fingerprint analysts. So even in cases where there should be one foolproof answer, noise can render certainty impossible.
1. Don’t Trust People, Trust Algorithms
Whether it’s predicting parole violators and bail jumpers or who will succeed as a research analyst, algorithms tend to be preferable to independent human judgment.
“Algorithms beat individuals about half the time. And they match individuals about half time,” Kahneman said. “There are very few examples of people outperforming algorithms in making predictive judgments. So when there’s the possibility of using an algorithm, people should use it. We have the idea that it is very complicated to design an algorithm. An algorithm is a rule. You can just construct rules.”
And when we can’t use an algorithm, we should train people to simulate one.
“Train people in a way of thinking and in a way of approaching problems that will impose uniformity,” he said.
2. Take the Broad View
Don’t view each problem in isolation.
“The single best advice we have in framing is broad framing,” he said. “See the decision as a member of a class of decisions that you’ll probably have to take.”
3. Test for Regret
“Regret is probably the greatest enemy of good decision making in personal finance,” Kahneman said.
So assess how prone clients are to it. The more potential for regret, the more likely they are to churn their account, sell at the wrong time, and buy when prices are high. High-net-worth individuals are especially risk averse, he said, so try to gauge just how risk averse.
“Clients who have regrets will often fire their advisers,” he said.
4. Seek Out Good Advice
Part of getting a wide-ranging perspective is to cultivate curiosity and to seek out guidance.
So who is the ideal adviser? “A person who likes you and doesn’t care about your feelings,” Kahneman said.
For him, that person is fellow Nobel laureate Richard H. Thaler.
“He likes me,” Kahneman said. “And couldn’t care less about my feelings.”
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Daniel Kahneman: Four Keys to Better Decision Making
“Doesn’t matter how smart you are unless you stop and think” - Thomas Sowell
