(NB: Am poor in grasping swahili perfectly).
Nakuelewa, ila point yangu ni hii, kama wewe ni mkulima, unajua msimu wa kupanda na wa kuvuna, unaelewa hali ya hewa, ila hauwezi ku predict weather kikamilifu, kufaulu 100% itabidi ufanye mechanized farming, ila licha ya limitation ya unpredictability ya weather, bado watu wanafanya ukulima na wanafaulu. Though lately kuna improved technology with almost 100% forecast.
Hii point yako ya unpredictability ya market tayari kwa trading it is factored in, na ukisoma utafunzwa hiyo topic and how to behave in the market, na kuna indicators to guide my operations or any professional trader. Kuna watu wana trade without looking at fundamentals, wao wanacheza na technical analysis which gives a picture of the market at the present., and they make it. I know of Jim Simmons, kama uko na wakati tazama youtube clip yake; he was my inspiration na nimefaulu.,
Nakubaliana na wewe forex ni risky, ila kama mtu ako na uelewa kidogo, take it from me, kwangu mimi naiona ikiwa low risk business sana, naweza deposit Ksh 1m (Tsh20M) na sitakua na wasi wasi wowote kwa vile naelewa dynamics zake na kile ninacho kifanya, if market goes against my position I already know my risk exposure per trade and how to hedge my positions, it is extremely simple, ndio maana wengi wanateleza., ila mimi sikuagizi uingie kwa hii biashara kwa vile najua ni risky na mtu yoyote yule huwa numuelezea vile, ningependa ujifunze ata kama ni miaka mitano upate uelewa kabla ya kuifanya. Hapo utakuja kukubaliana na mimi ni low risk business.
Ikija football betting, sijasema ni illegal, nilikua nalinganisha na forex, yaani football betting ni ku gamble ukiifanya just point blank, ila pia kwa hili, najua ku invest na strategies za risk and bankroll management where at the end of the season I make profits, ila I never advise anyone kuhusu betting kwa vile najua wengi hawawezi kukua na same discipline kama yangu at the start, I know all those arbitrage betting and stuff.., , but I don't use those. Success iko kwa understanding proper risk to reward ratio and bankroll management ikija kwa betting, ukielewa hizi sasa ina kua investment na sio tena gambling.
anyway I get your point, uko sahihi from where u stand looking at forex.