Israeli kusitisha mapigano na Hezbollah, je ni hatua ya Israeli kujiimarisha zaidi au ni mbinu na mkakati wa kumfifisha Iran?

Israeli kusitisha mapigano na Hezbollah, je ni hatua ya Israeli kujiimarisha zaidi au ni mbinu na mkakati wa kumfifisha Iran?

Israel kupitia Waziri Mkuu, Benjamin Netanyahu imetangaza kukubali kusitisha mapigano dhidi ya kundi la Hezbollah la Lebanon, hatua inayodhaniwa kumaliza vita hivyo vilivyodumu ndani ya mwaka mmoja na kuua takriban watu 3,800.

Rais Joe Biden ametangaza kuwa Marekani imesaidia kufanikisha makubaliano ya kusitisha mapigano nchini Lebanon, ambayo yatamaliza vita kati ya Israeli na kundi hilo linaloungwa mkono na Iran.
Sababu ya kwanza kabisa ni kichapo anachochezea, mazayuni hawasikii lugha byingine nje ya kichapo.

Sababu zingine zote ni kuficha aibu tu.
 
Aliyesarenda ni Hezbollah kwani kakubali kutoishambulia Israeli na kuondoka mpakani,Hezbollah waliishambulia Israeli ili kuizuia Isishambulie Gaza lkn Hilo hawajafanikiwa na Israeli ilisema wakiondoka mpakani itaacha kushambulia Lebanoni jambo ambalo Hezbollah wametii katika makubaliano
Hakuna makubaliano yaliyofikiwa kati ya Hizbollah na Israel. Bali Israel na US wameichekecha serikali ya Lebanon ambayo imelalamika sana kuhusu raia wake hezb hawezi kuongea na US kuhusu upuuzi huo na ni natamani siku moja hezb waipindue serikali ya Lebanon yaan niwehu. All in all hezb watabaki kusini na silaha zao zitabaki na wataendelea kujiimarisha kwa kuleta silaha kusini na siku Israhell wakivuka mpaka au kuleta ujinga kinawaka tena so far ni cease ya siku 60 kwahio lolote linaweza kuendelea
 
Watapigwa na nani😜😜😜kama walikuwa na huo uwezo kwanini wamekimbilia ceasefire?? Sahau vita vya gaza kuendelea.
Baki hivyo sikuchache zijazo utaona Hezbollah haingilii tRNA mambo ya Gaza
 
Sababu ya kwanza kabisa ni kichapo anachochezea, mazayuni hawasikii lugha byingine nje ya kichapo.

Sababu zingine zote ni kuficha aibu tu.
Hapo Hezbollah ndo kashindwa kwa sababu lengo lake la kuingia mapiganoni ni kuilazimisha Israeli iache kuishambulia Gaza,Sasa mapigano yanasimamishwa na Irael Bado inabinda Gaza.Pili kampeni ya Israeli kuingia kusini mwa Lebanoni ni kuwasukuma mbali na mpaka Hezbollah na katika makubaliano Hezbollah anaondoka kilimeta kadhaa toka mpakani na kufanya raia wa Israeli walio hama kaskazini warudi na kama Hezbolaah watashambulia sitisho la mapigano linakoma vita inaendelea jambo ambalo serikali y a Lebanon haitaki litokee
 
Hawana ujanja huo, Tena wao ndio wanalilia ceasefire Kila siku
Aliye shinikiza ceasefire ni Baden kwa kuitumia serikali ya Lebanon.
Na Baden sio kwamba ameshinikiza ceasefire kwa sababu ana huruma sana na watu wa Lebanon bali amefanya hivyo ili kutompa Trump ujiko wa kisiasa maana Trump ameahidi kumaliza vita yote ,hata gaza muda sio mlefu usishangae vita ikasitishwa.
Hata Israel imelazimika kukubali kusitisha mapigano kutokana na mlinganyo wa nguvu kati yake na Hizbullah,mtu una peleka wanajeshi zaidi ya 50,000 yenye kila aina ya silaha alafu unashindwa hata kuteka kijiji kimoja una dhani ni mchezo sio?
 
Hakuna makubaliano yaliyofikiwa kati ya Hizbollah na Israel. Bali Israel na US wameichekecha serikali ya Lebanon ambayo imelalamika sana kuhusu raia wake hezb hawezi kuongea na US kuhusu upuuzi huo na ni natamani siku moja hezb waipindue serikali ya Lebanon yaan niwehu. All in all hezb watabaki kusini na silaha zao zitabaki na wataendelea kujiimarisha kwa kuleta silaha kusini na siku Israhell wakivuka mpaka au kuleta ujinga kinawaka tena so far ni cease ya siku 60 kwahio lolote linaweza kuendelea
Soma mkataba wa makubaliano ndo uje Tena hapa
 
— ❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧/ 🇱🇧 Israel – Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement Terms, a Return to the Status-Quo before October 7th 2023:

– Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanon will not carry out any offensive actions against Israel.

– Israel will not carry out any offensive action against targets inside Lebanon, including on the ground, in the air and at sea.

– Israel and Lebanon 'recognize the importance' of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

– Israel and Lebanon reserve the right to exercise their inherent right of self-defense.

– The Lebanese Armed Forces and the Lebanese Security Forces will be the only armed groups 'authorized to carry weapons or operate forces' in southern Lebanon. (This will not be implemented, it is a part of UNSCR 1701 and was never implemented to begin with.)

– The sale, supply and production of any weapons or materials related to weapons to Lebanon will be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese state. (Won't be implemented, this is a formality.)

– All unauthorized facilities involved in the production of weapons and weapons-related materials will be dismantled. (Won't be implemented, this is a formality.)

– All military infrastructure and positions will be dismantled, all unauthorized weapons that do not comply with these obligations will be confiscated (Won't be implemented, this is a formality).

– A committee will be established that will be acceptable to Israel and Lebanon that will monitor and assist in ensuring the enforcement of these commitments.

– Israel and Lebanon will report any possible violation of the commitments to the committee and UNIFIL.

– Lebanon will deploy its official military and security forces along all borders, crossing points and the line that defines the southern region.

– Israel will withdraw all its forces in a phased manner towards south of the blue line during a period of up to 60 days.

– The US will promote indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to reach a recognized land border.

@Middle_East_Spectator
 
Hapo Hezbollah ndo kashindwa kwa sababu lengo lake la kuingia mapiganoni ni kuilazimisha Israeli iache kuishambulia Gaza,Sasa mapigano yanasimamishwa na Irael Bado inabinda Gaza.Pili kampeni ya Israeli kuingia kusini mwa Lebanoni ni kuwasukuma mbali na mpaka Hezbollah na katika makubaliano Hezbollah anaondoka kilimeta kadhaa toka mpakani na kufanya raia wa Israeli walio hama kaskazini warudi na kama Hezbolaah watashambulia sitisho la mapigano linakoma vita inaendelea jambo ambalo serikali y a Lebanon haitaki litokee
Umeuona mkataba wa kusitisha mapigano au unapayuka tu?
 
— ❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧/ 🇱🇧 Israel – Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement Terms, a Return to the Status-Quo before October 7th 2023:

– Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanon will not carry out any offensive actions against Israel.

– Israel will not carry out any offensive action against targets inside Lebanon, including on the ground, in the air and at sea.

– Israel and Lebanon 'recognize the importance' of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

– Israel and Lebanon reserve the right to exercise their inherent right of self-defense.

– The Lebanese Armed Forces and the Lebanese Security Forces will be the only armed groups 'authorized to carry weapons or operate forces' in southern Lebanon. (This will not be implemented, it is a part of UNSCR 1701 and was never implemented to begin with.)

– The sale, supply and production of any weapons or materials related to weapons to Lebanon will be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese state. (Won't be implemented, this is a formality.)

– All unauthorized facilities involved in the production of weapons and weapons-related materials will be dismantled. (Won't be implemented, this is a formality.)

– All military infrastructure and positions will be dismantled, all unauthorized weapons that do not comply with these obligations will be confiscated (Won't be implemented, this is a formality).

– A committee will be established that will be acceptable to Israel and Lebanon that will monitor and assist in ensuring the enforcement of these commitments.

– Israel and Lebanon will report any possible violation of the commitments to the committee and UNIFIL.

– Lebanon will deploy its official military and security forces along all borders, crossing points and the line that defines the southern region.

– Israel will withdraw all its forces in a phased manner towards south of the blue line during a period of up to 60 days.

– The US will promote indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to reach a recognized land border.

@Middle_East_Spectator
Huu ndio upuuzi serikali ya Lebanon iliyoupitisha
 
Kuna uwezekano mkubwa Israel katumia mbinu hii ili Mateka wake wapatikane. Ila je' hao Mateka bado wapo hai????
 
Ndugu yangu gTurn wewe mbona hucoment naona una like tu

Tunaomba maon yako kaka
Sijafurahishwa na hii cease fire kwakua hezb walikua katika position nzuri Zaidi kupressure matokeo sijui wamewaza vipi ila wao wanajua zaidi. hii itampa mwanya zaidi Israeli wa kujipanga na kingine hizbollah wanakosa maamuzi ya haraka kwakua wao ni chama tu katika serikali hivyo serikali ya Lebanon ndio tatizo kwao, kwani walikataa hadi msaada uliotoka Iran zaidi ya trilioni 2 kusaidia watu walioathirika na vita, kwa kuhofia Marekani itawaadhibu. Mtihani alionao hizb ni kujipanga kiintelijensia zaidi kipindi hiki cha cease najua lazima kuna bleach itatokea wataendelea tuu waga iko hivyo miaka yote
 
Hapo Hezbollah ndo kashindwa kwa sababu lengo lake la kuingia mapiganoni ni kuilazimisha Israeli iache kuishambulia Gaza,Sasa mapigano yanasimamishwa na Irael Bado inabinda Gaza.Pili kampeni ya Israeli kuingia kusini mwa Lebanoni ni kuwasukuma mbali na mpaka Hezbollah na katika makubaliano Hezbollah anaondoka kilimeta kadhaa toka mpakani na kufanya raia wa Israeli walio hama kaskazini warudi na kama Hezbolaah watashambulia sitisho la mapigano linakoma vita inaendelea jambo ambalo serikali y a Lebanon haitaki litokee
Watu hamuelewi geopolitics kabisa, Lebanon angetaka hivyo wote wangeshambulia kwa mkupuo ila alianza Hamas, baadae Houthi, baadae Hezbollah na mwishoni IRGC yenyewe meaning ilikua kudivert attention ya USA iwekeze Israel ili Ukraine azidiwe. Kumbuka Iran alipeleka wakufunzi na drones za shaheed huko Urusi ili kuipiga Ukraine yote ili kui weaken USA maana a weak USA is a weak Israel.

Na hilo wameachieve ndio maana Urusi imempa Iran makombora mazito kumtwanga Israel na pia gains za urusi huko Ukraine zimeongezeka. So in the long run Iran ime maintain status yake kama power maana imetoka kwenye hii conflict na heshima kuliko kabla ya vita.

Meanwhile Hezbollah bado intact kwenye utawala maana tulitarajia Israel inge overrun nchi nzima na kuwaondoa. Hilo halikufanikiwa sasa wameshindwaje?
 
Watu hamuelewi geopolitics kabisa, Lebanon angetaka hivyo wote wangeshambulia kwa mkupuo ila alianza Hamas, baadae Houthi, baadae Hezbollah na mwishoni IRGC yenyewe meaning ilikua kudivert attention ya USA iwekeze Israel ili Ukraine azidiwe. Kumbuka Iran alipeleka wakufunzi na drones za shaheed huko Urusi ili kuipiga Ukraine yote ili kui weaken USA maana a weak USA is a weak Israel.

Na hilo wameachieve ndio maana Urusi imempa Iran makombora mazito kumtwanga Israel na pia gains za urusi huko Ukraine zimeongezeka. So in the long run Iran ime maintain status yake kama power maana imetoka kwenye hii conflict na heshima kuliko kabla ya vita.

Meanwhile Hezbollah bado intact kwenye utawala maana tulitarajia Israel inge overrun nchi nzima na kuwaondoa. Hilo halikufanikiwa sasa wameshindwaje?
Wachambuzi wa kibongo bana!, 😀
 
Hakuna makubaliano yaliyofikiwa kati ya Hizbollah na Israel. Bali Israel na US wameichekecha serikali ya Lebanon ambayo imelalamika sana kuhusu raia wake hezb hawezi kuongea na US kuhusu upuuzi huo na ni natamani siku moja hezb waipindue serikali ya Lebanon yaan niwehu. All in all hezb watabaki kusini na silaha zao zitabaki na wataendelea kujiimarisha kwa kuleta silaha kusini na siku Israhell wakivuka mpaka au kuleta ujinga kinawaka tena so far ni cease ya siku 60 kwahio lolote linaweza kuendelea
Hizbollah wajiimarishe tena,si wamemtembezea mzayuni kichapo hadi kaomba ceasefire?
 
Watu hamuelewi geopolitics kabisa, Lebanon angetaka hivyo wote wangeshambulia kwa mkupuo ila alianza Hamas, baadae Houthi, baadae Hezbollah na mwishoni IRGC yenyewe meaning ilikua kudivert attention ya USA iwekeze Israel ili Ukraine azidiwe. Kumbuka Iran alipeleka wakufunzi na drones za shaheed huko Urusi ili kuipiga Ukraine yote ili kui weaken USA maana a weak USA is a weak Israel.

Na hilo wameachieve ndio maana Urusi imempa Iran makombora mazito kumtwanga Israel na pia gains za urusi huko Ukraine zimeongezeka. So in the long run Iran ime maintain status yake kama power maana imetoka kwenye hii conflict na heshima kuliko kabla ya vita.

Meanwhile Hezbollah bado intact kwenye utawala maana tulitarajia Israel inge overrun nchi nzima na kuwaondoa. Hilo halikufanikiwa sasa wameshindwaje?
PhD ya geopolitics kutoka MUM
 
Unaishi Ulimwengu wa giza kweli!! Inaonekana hujui hata aliyeomva ceasefire ni nani?

Israel imekubali ombi la Lebanon kusitisha maligano kwa siku 60 tu. Baada ya hapo watafanya tathmini jinsi Hezbollah na Lebanon walivyotekeleza masharti ya Ceacefire. Ikiwa vinginevyo, vita inaendelea.

Lakini ni jambo hema kama Hezbollah watapata angalao hata hekima ndogo ili maafa ya watu wasio na hatia yakome.

Nina hakika ungekuwa huko Lebanon, ungeifurahia sana hatua hii.

Israel imesisitiza kuwa Hezbollah ikikiuka kipengere chochote, ataitwanga tena:

Effective at 04:00 tomorrow local time (02:00 GMT on Wednesday), the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end," Biden said, adding that it aimed to be a "permanent cessation of hostilities".
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will not hesitate to strike if Hezbollah breaks any part of the agreed deal.
Cha kushangaza zaidi Hizbullah kabadili GIA angani maana walianza kushambulia Israel Toka Oct 7 eti wanawaunga mkono Hamas na Kiongozi wao Hassan Nasraillah akajigamba kwamba hawatositisha mashambulizi mpaka IDF iondoke Gaza na Leo Hamas wanaendelea kuchapwa na Hizbullah wameomba kupumzishwa na kipigo.

Japo wamelazimishwa ila Israel wamefanya Grave Mistake kukubali ceasefire na hao jamaa hawatopata nafasi kama hii tena maana Hizbullah walikuwa washaelekea kibrah.
 
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